Grade the Suns off season roster moves for 2019-20

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Fivethirtyeight.com projects that the Suns will win 36 games. That's almost doubling the win total from last season.

Wow.

 

[Muggz]

Gave it a B- just because its the Suns i was actually kinda shocked we didnt trade everyone and get 15 Joe Kleines and Luc Longleys.
I really dont give a flying fruit bat about the grades the Clippers and Lakers get.

Ill miss Warren and think we could have got more for him. But i dont think getting rid of him was a good reason to cry our eyes out about it, let it go.
OMG not the 2nd round picks, get real they are easily replaced.

We needed to take care of our PG situation... DONE.
We needed backups at the C.... DONE.
PF...Done
Shooters...DONE
Defensive stoppers...DONE.
Rim protection...kinda done.
We resigned the fan favorite
And have a coach that can bring it all together.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Wow.

?
I'm interested in what you think of that.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Gave it a B- just because its the Suns i was actually kinda shocked we didnt trade everyone and get 15 Joe Kleines and Luc Longleys.

Um... isn't that pretty much exactly what Kaminsky and Baynes are?

I really dont give a flying fruit bat about the grades the Clippers and Lakers get.

Ill miss Warren and think we could have got more for him. But i dont think getting rid of him was a good reason to cry our eyes out about it, let it go.
OMG not the 2nd round picks, get real they are easily replaced.

We needed to take care of our PG situation... DONE.
We needed backups at the C.... DONE.
PF...Done
Shooters...DONE
Defensive stoppers...DONE.

Who are these "defensive stoppers"?

Rim protection...kinda done.

How? We signed Kaminsky, traded for Saric and Baynes. Two of them are terrible rim protectors and the other is an okay one... i guess.

 

[Cheesebeef]

?
I'm interested in what you think of that.

I'm interested in knowing what 538's track record has been overall since their defining moment in 2012. Just from cursory memory, they've gotten a whole lot of big stuff wrong since then (election, Cubs and Cavs winning titles). Did they have the Bucks winning 60 games? Toronto winning the title? other sports?

not saying one way or another because i haven't followed 538 closely in a while, but are they getting by on rep or results lately?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

?
I'm interested in what you think of that.

To be fair they have two projections. CARMELO projected the 36. The other projected 24.

I think they’ll be around 29-31. So 5 games up to 36 isn’t outta the question but would represent a pretty amazing one year turnaround. I guess it being the actual projection - so what they expect - is the surprise.

 

[Phrazbit]

To be fair they have two projections. CARMELO projected the 36. The other projected 24.

I think they’ll be around 29-31. So 5 games up to 36 isn’t outta the question but would represent a pretty amazing one year turnaround. I guess it being the actual projection - so what they expect - is the surprise.

The roster has been overhauled so much that nothing about last year's win total is relevant, we may be bad but we'll be different bad. I said this before... we're returning 3 guys from last year's opening night roster, two of those guys were playing their first game. It is a completely different team.

The roster, on paper, is worlds better than last year's team. Much of the replacement is D-League quality players being bumped by veterans who have shown real talent.

I have serious questions about Jones' asset management capabilities and if it's going to hurt us in the long run, but in terms of pure talent, I think we're going really surprise people.

 

[Covert Rain]

The roster has been overhauled so much that nothing about last year's win total is relevant, we may be bad but we'll be different bad. I said this before... we're returning 3 guys from last year's opening night roster, two of those guys were playing their first game. It is a completely different team.

The roster, on paper, is worlds better than last year's team. Much of the replacement is D-League quality players being bumped by veterans who have shown real talent.

I have serious questions about Jones' asset management capabilities and if it's going to hurt us in the long run, but in terms of pure talent, I think we're going really surprise people.

Yes the roster has been overhauled and is a completely different team. Arguably two of the biggest pieces of that puzzle are still what everything runs through this year. Outside of our top 3 we have a roster full of question marks and potential....just like last year. We have guys that won't be here in a couple years....just like last year. We are still going to live and die by how improved Ayton and Booker are...just like last year.

Oh...and world's difference? That sounds really lofty. A world's difference to me would be getting to the playoffs. If we win 10 to 15 more games that is not a world's difference.

 

[Hoop Head]

I have serious questions about Jones' asset management capabilities and if it's going to hurt us in the long run, but in terms of pure talent, I think we're going really surprise people.

I really hope he doesn't trade our pick for next year at the deadline. If he does for any less than a star that will be telling, IMO. If it's for a star then I'd be fine with it because most teams would do that but I want to see how he handles an offseason where he's not undoing someone else's work. Next offseason will be on him almost entirely. The only thing he really inherited is Booker on a 5 year max, that I believe Jones signed off on since he was part of the front office that worked on it.

 

[BC867]

Yes the roster has been overhauled and is a completely different team. Arguably two of the biggest pieces of that puzzle are still what everything runs through this year. Outside of our top 3 we have a roster full of question marks and potential....just like last year. We have guys that won't be here in a couple years....just like last year. We are still going to live and die by how improved Ayton and Booker are...just like last year.

Oh...and world's difference? That sounds really lofty. A world's difference to me would be getting to the playoffs. If we win 10 to 15 more games that is not a world's difference.

A team that played a season without a legitimate Point Guard and without a legitimate Power Forward,
putting extra pressure on our two stars, Booker and Ayton, is a world's difference.

We're fielding a balanced team, even before discussing who fills the slots. Team philosophy is the
foundation to becoming successful.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Shoot last year we only had three “bigs” (Ayton, Holmes, and bender). We almost doubled that this year (Ayton, Baynes, saric, kaminsky, Diallo).

 

[Covert Rain]

A team that played a season without a legitimate Point Guard and without a legitimate Power Forward,
putting extra pressure on our two stars, Booker and Ayton, is a world's difference.

We're fielding a balanced team, even before discussing who fills the slots. Team philosophy is the
foundation to becoming successful.

I guess world's difference is subjective. If this team ends up with 10 to 12 more wins nobody will be saying that.

 

[Muggz]

Um... isn't that pretty much exactly what Kaminsky and Baynes

UM... No.

Who are these "defensive stoppers"?

Diallo and Carter are better on D than most players we had last year. Add Bridges to the mix we could get tons of turnovers, steals and more blocks.


How? We signed Kaminsky, traded for Saric and Baynes. Two of them are terrible rim protectors and the other is an okay one... i guess.

Diallo and to some extent Oubre both play well at the rim.

I'm not saying its perfect but we do have a better team than last year depending on who gets playing time and how much.

 

[Matt L]

I went with a C. The draft was perplexing but after everything shook out, I can at least understand where they are trying to do. I like the coach, I like Rubio and I like signing players that have got minutes on playoff teams. I think this is a real make or break season for Booker. All of the moves they made were to surround him with complementary pieces. This is going to be his 5th year in the league and he's going to have to show if he is guy who puts up stats on a bad team or if he can be the best player on a playoff team.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Shoot last year we only had three “bigs” (Ayton, Holmes, and bender). We almost doubled that this year (Ayton, Baynes, saric, kaminsky, Diallo).

You are forgetting the corpse of Ryan Anderson.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You are forgetting the corpse of Ryan Anderson.

I was thinking by seasons end

 

[Phrazbit]

Yes the roster has been overhauled and is a completely different team. Arguably two of the biggest pieces of that puzzle are still what everything runs through this year. Outside of our top 3 we have a roster full of question marks and potential....just like last year. We have guys that won't be here in a couple years....just like last year. We are still going to live and die by how improved Ayton and Booker are...just like last year.

Oh...and world's difference? That sounds really lofty. A world's difference to me would be getting to the playoffs. If we win 10 to 15 more games that is not a world's difference.

A lot of the question marks this year are "will this veteran continue to play at the level he has before?", where last year it was "will guys like Bender and Jackson stop being garbage?".

Last year Ayton and Booker were both quality players, we didn't live and die by them, it was the rest of the roster that absolutely killed us. You can't compete when half your roster belongs in the DLeague.

IMO, if next year's team wins 35-40 games and is competitive on a night to night basis then it is a world's difference.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I listened to the recent Timeline podcast that dove into the analytics of the Suns players. It was extremely enlightening and shocking.

One highlight was that both Josh Jackson and Jamal Crawford had a PIPM (Player Impact Plus Minus) of -4, among the worst in the league.

The data is from BBall Index and they had one of the founders on the pod.

He had some interesting data. The only thing I didn't particularly like was the future prediction model that they use. For instance they predict Ayton to improve incrimentally every year. As if it is uncommon for good rookies to get a lot better as they develop. Another issue I had was their value for Oubre as they said they predicted he would only be worth a total of $18m over the next 2 years, but I feel like that doesn't take into account his elevated play when given a big role with the Suns last year. They did say that they see Rubio outperforming his contract with the Suns and that he grades out very well as a passer and perimeter defender. He's gotten significantly better at finishing over the past few years and while he wouldn't be great playing off the ball with Booker, but could be very good being the primary ball handler next to Booker.

 

[Krangodnzr]

A lot of the question marks this year are "will this veteran continue to play at the level he has before?", where last year it was "will guys like Bender and Jackson stop being garbage?".

Last year Ayton and Booker were both quality players, we didn't live and die by them, it was the rest of the roster that absolutely killed us. You can't compete when half your roster belongs in the DLeague.

IMO, if next year's team wins 35-40 games and is competitive on a night to night basis then it is a world's difference.

Yep.

Even Amin Elhassan was fairly complimentary of the offseason moves. Didnt like the Warren trade, but Eddie House basically said what I think happened, Warren became a cancer last year that you HAD to get rid of. The reports that Warren basically just refused to play even though Doc's said he was GTG is a precedent you CANT let slide.

 

[Covert Rain]

A lot of the question marks this year are "will this veteran continue to play at the level he has before?", where last year it was "will guys like Bender and Jackson stop being garbage?".

Last year Ayton and Booker were both quality players, we didn't live and die by them, it was the rest of the roster that absolutely killed us. You can't compete when half your roster belongs in the DLeague.

IMO, if next year's team wins 35-40 games and is competitive on a night to night basis then it is a world's difference.

What do you mean? If Ayton got hurt of the season or Booker you think we sniff 19 wins? I don't. It would have been much worse. Booker took over some of those games and Ayton despite not being completely dominate put up some good numbers to help us get those 19 wins.

So you are predicting a 21 game jump? I am still not sure that would qualify as worlds better when the team would still be under .500 and miss the playoffs but I digress. Again, if it's a 10 to 12 game jump? Nobody is going to say that.

If this team gets 29 wins and the consensus is the team is worlds better you can comeback here and hold me to it. I will gladly eat crow.

P.S. I would be thrilled if this team takes a leap and gets to at least .500.

 

[JCSunsfan]

What do you mean? If Ayton got hurt of the season or Booker you think we sniff 19 wins? I don't. It would have been much worse. Booker took over some of those games and Ayton despite not being completely dominate put up some good numbers to help us get those 19 wins.

So you are predicting a 21 game jump? I am still not sure that would qualify as worlds better when the team would still be under .500 and miss the playoffs but I digress. Again, if it's a 10 to 12 game jump? Nobody is going to say that.

If this team gets 29 wins and the consensus is the team is worlds better you can comeback here and hold me to it. I will gladly eat crow.

P.S. I would be thrilled if this team takes a leap and gets to at least .500.

I think fivethirtyeight is pretty much spot on. 35 wins. But that does not take into account unusual injury issues or tanking.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think fivethirtyeight is pretty much spot on. 35 wins. But that does not take into account unusual injury issues or tanking.

You think the team will even consider tanking anymore? I don't see it as much with the new lottery system.

35 wins is possible but even then it gets us possibly into Lakers territory. Improved roster or not we are playing catch up with the rest of the West in terms of depth.

 

[JCSunsfan]

You think the team will even consider tanking anymore? I don't see it as much with the new lottery system.

35 wins is possible but even then it gets us possibly into Lakers territory. Improved roster or not we are playing catch up with the rest of the West in terms of depth.

According to fivethirtyeight, they have us at 35 wins and still finishing 12th in the WC. I guess they are assuming the WC is going to really beat up on the EC this year.

 

[Phrazbit]

What do you mean? If Ayton got hurt of the season or Booker you think we sniff 19 wins? I don't. It would have been much worse. Booker took over some of those games and Ayton despite not being completely dominate put up some good numbers to help us get those 19 wins.

So you are predicting a 21 game jump? I am still not sure that would qualify as worlds better when the team would still be under .500 and miss the playoffs but I digress. Again, if it's a 10 to 12 game jump? Nobody is going to say that.

If this team gets 29 wins and the consensus is the team is worlds better you can comeback here and hold me to it. I will gladly eat crow.

P.S. I would be thrilled if this team takes a leap and gets to at least .500.

There were a ton of games where Booker and Ayton both played well, a ton where Booker was flat out amazing and we still got slaughtered. We were not living and dying by them, we were dying because we'd have stretches where over 5 minutes we fell 20+ points behind and it was game over. Booker and Ayton could not improve at all but if our bench merely can stay play equal to opposing benches on most nights then it will be a dramatic change.

And yes, I think flirting with .500 and having a nearly even scoring differential would be worlds better than being the worst team in the league and getting blown out in 2/3rds of our losses.

 

[Covert Rain]

There were a ton of games where Booker and Ayton both played well, a ton where Booker was flat out amazing and we still got slaughtered. We were not living and dying by them, we were dying because we'd have stretches where over 5 minutes we fell 20+ points behind and it was game over. Booker and Ayton could not improve at all but if our bench merely can stay play equal to opposing benches on most nights then it will be a dramatic change.

And yes, I think flirting with .500 and having a nearly even scoring differential would be worlds better than being the worst team in the league and getting blown out in 2/3rds of our losses.

We have different takes on "world's better" but OK.