Harpring agrees to stay with Utah Jazz

[ShuHanGuanYu]

You know its just not that simple, that TT just sucks defensively. Its also not that simple that a good defender gets fewer fouls/40mins.

Come on man, please give me a little more credit than that. Of course there is more to it than fouls per minute. Only an idiot would suggest such a thing. And if I believed that I would not have said in the same paragraph that Kurt Thomas was in foul trouble even though he plays great defense.

Elton Brand shot 18/22 with marion guarding him in game one of the clippers series. Marion didnt pick up "silly" fouls, he "moved his feet, didnt use his hands", but Brand torched him for 80% FG's. Diaw was also unable to even slow Brand, defensively. TT played the best D against Brand, not that it was all that good, but the shooting % went DOWN compared with Diaw and Marion. The reason for this was that both Diaw and Marion did not have enough body strength to deny Brand his favorite shooting spots, and none of those guys can come close to blocking Brands shots. TT was used by Dantoni as the first defender, and then the double came with Marion or Diaw to contest the shot. This made TT get alot of fouls because he was the point man against Brand and generally does not have the footspeed to guard him without fouling. I'd rather have TT pick up fouls than have Brand shoot 80% or foul out Diaw. Most of the same was true with Nowitski, who Dantoni tried the same defenders on. Nowitski was too strong for Marion and Diaw, but TT was strong enough to limit Dirks use of physical strength to gain position.

Brand was hitting every shot in that game, no matter where it was from. Most of those shots came from greater than 8 feet out, the guy was just on fire. Even from 17-19 feet out, not his favorite place on the floor, he made every single shot. The strategy is to keep him out of the lane and make him make jump shots. He was on fire, and I seriously doubt there's anything Tim Thomas could have done to slow him down. I also think the 80% number you are using is misleading. Show me a link for some defensive statistics that illustrate how Brand shot 80% when Marion and Diaw were guarding him vs a lower (it's not hard to go down from an 80% in game 1 by the way) shooting percentage when Tim Thomas was guarding him. You'll have to come up with more than just game 1 stats vs game 2-7 stats. Then, I'd be inclined to consider it.

More important than Tim Thomas guarding Brand was the change of strategy by coach D'Antoni to move to very quick double teams. This helped limit any good looks and made other players make plays. Brand still completely torched the Suns in nearly game he played, so I don't see this positive defensive affect that Tim Thomas is supposed to have had. The silly foul comment above applies more to Tim Thomas than James Jones. Tim Thomas would, knowing that he is being called upon to guard Brand or Dirk, get silly fouls by not playing defense. There were several plays I can remember where he'd just walk backwards and then slap down at the ball with little effort. This has prompted me to want to go back and watch the games, so as soon as I can get them I will do that. But with Kurt Thomas and Amare in the lineup in the future, he won't be the only one with strength to play a guy like Elton Brand.

Yeah I like Jones, but he was inconsistent shooting and that limited his minutes. Jones does pick up silly fouls, but mainly against faster guards driving to the hoop. Those fouls are not all that silly compared with a layup. Jones realized that his use of his fouls would slow the other teams scoring. If Jones was as consistent a shooter as TT, he would have played more. Is TT worth 6 mil to he suns? I dont know, but its amazing that not one poster mentioned how putting TT at the 3pt line either took a shot blocker out of the lane or gave him an open look(45% 3pt shooter). TT's value is in creating spacing on the floor for the offense. Of the suns other players, only Nash, Raja, and Barbs could do that, create spacing from the threat of a 3 point shot. If I am the other teams coach, I say let Marion, Diaw, Jones(inconsistent as hell) all shoot the three, and prevent the penetration to limit points in the paint. Next year, you can expect to add Amare and KT to the "let em shoot the 3" strategy. Where will the outside shooting come from to create the spacing next year? It had better be Jones, or he is useless as good team defenders are not that hard to come by and they dont create offensive spacing. I expect Amare to need less space to operate in the lane IF he is healthy. The pick and roll will be back if amare is healthy, but if you didnt notice, the goal of the DAntoni offense is to force spacing to either get the penetrate and kick working or just shoot the open threes. With TT gone, the suns are not as good a 3pt shooting team and spacing will be more difficult. I think DAntoni never did intend to sign TT, with that 3 mil lowball. I'm willing to let him show me why that was a good decision, though it wont be easy as the clippers became a better team and the suns became a less effective outside shooting team by letting TT go. Like I said, Im waiting for DAntoni to show me why, and it could be that next years picks are the reason, but those picks are more speculative than any deal for a vet.

The Suns won't need to be the best three point shooting team ever if they can play defense. With extra size and the return of our interior defense, D'Antoni won't have the same strategy of simply outscoring your opponent by hoisting up a ton of threes. You seem to have left any notion of a midrange game out of your post. Not everything has to be a three or a dunk/layup. Shawn was huge when we had Amare because he'd make those baseline 18 footers. Are you forgetting that Shawn Marion seemed to do just fine when he played alongside Amare in 2005? Not everything had to be a three then, why does it now? Championships have been won plenty of times without a PF that is a three point shooter. Kurt will bring the midrange game again too, which should work well with Amare Stoudemire because it'll be harder to double him off the weak side. If James Jones can hit some 18 footers with consistency next year, he will fit in just fine. The good thing in my opinion is that he should continue to grow as a player, while I think we've seen the best that Tim Thomas has to offer.

The reason they had to create so much space is also because they relied solely on Nash's penetration to get shots (which is also a reason why I think he broke down a bit toward the end of the year). When Nash went out, it was Barbosa or Diaw's turn. Now, they have a solid (hopefully, of course) interior option and can move toward a game that is better suited for the playoffs. The need to get to the line will be addressed with Amare coming back too, which is great because you can't get to the line very well when you drive and kick and hoist threes like crazy. They will, in my opinion, become a lesser outside team by losing Tim Thomas. But I will trade a bit of that to have a complete team, one that can compete on both ends of the floor. Now we'll see a better option than "make shots or lose". I still think a purely offensive threat that will play less than half the game off the bench gives too little for $5-6 million dollars.

 

[nowagimp]

Come on man, please give me a little more credit than that. Of course there is more to it than fouls per minute. Only an idiot would suggest such a thing. And if I believed that I would not have said in the same paragraph that Kurt Thomas was in foul trouble even though he plays great defense.



Brand was hitting every shot in that game, no matter where it was from. Most of those shots came from greater than 8 feet out, the guy was just on fire. Even from 17-19 feet out, not his favorite place on the floor, he made every single shot. The strategy is to keep him out of the lane and make him make jump shots. He was on fire, and I seriously doubt there's anything Tim Thomas could have done to slow him down. I also think the 80% number you are using is misleading. Show me a link for some defensive statistics that illustrate how Brand shot 80% when Marion and Diaw were guarding him vs a lower (it's not hard to go down from an 80% in game 1 by the way) shooting percentage when Tim Thomas was guarding him. You'll have to come up with more than just game 1 stats vs game 2-7 stats. Then, I'd be inclined to consider it.

More important than Tim Thomas guarding Brand was the change of strategy by coach D'Antoni to move to very quick double teams. This helped limit any good looks and made other players make plays. Brand still completely torched the Suns in nearly game he played, so I don't see this positive defensive affect that Tim Thomas is supposed to have had. The silly foul comment above applies more to Tim Thomas than James Jones. Tim Thomas would, knowing that he is being called upon to guard Brand or Dirk, get silly fouls by not playing defense. There were several plays I can remember where he'd just walk backwards and then slap down at the ball with little effort. This has prompted me to want to go back and watch the games, so as soon as I can get them I will do that. But with Kurt Thomas and Amare in the lineup in the future, he won't be the only one with strength to play a guy like Elton Brand.



The Suns won't need to be the best three point shooting team ever if they can play defense. With extra size and the return of our interior defense, D'Antoni won't have the same strategy of simply outscoring your opponent by hoisting up a ton of threes. You seem to have left any notion of a midrange game out of your post. Not everything has to be a three or a dunk/layup. Shawn was huge when we had Amare because he'd make those baseline 18 footers. Are you forgetting that Shawn Marion seemed to do just fine when he played alongside Amare in 2005? Not everything had to be a three then, why does it now? Championships have been won plenty of times without a PF that is a three point shooter. Kurt will bring the midrange game again too, which should work well with Amare Stoudemire because it'll be harder to double him off the weak side. If James Jones can hit some 18 footers with consistency next year, he will fit in just fine. The good thing in my opinion is that he should continue to grow as a player, while I think we've seen the best that Tim Thomas has to offer.

The reason they had to create so much space is also because they relied solely on Nash's penetration to get shots (which is also a reason why I think he broke down a bit toward the end of the year). When Nash went out, it was Barbosa or Diaw's turn. Now, they have a solid (hopefully, of course) interior option and can move toward a game that is better suited for the playoffs. The need to get to the line will be addressed with Amare coming back too, which is great because you can't get to the line very well when you drive and kick and hoist threes like crazy. They will, in my opinion, become a lesser outside team by losing Tim Thomas. But I will trade a bit of that to have a complete team, one that can compete on both ends of the floor. Now we'll see a better option than "make shots or lose". I still think a purely offensive threat that will play less than half the game off the bench gives too little for $5-6 million dollars.

Rhythm jump shooters like Brand cannot be allowed to physically throw the defender off balance while retaining his own balance to shoot. What I saw, and related to my own experiences, is that Brand got to his spots and used his physical energy to keep his defender off balance while retaining his own balance, and footwork. When TT guarded Brand, often Brand was a little off balance after initiating physical contact with TT. Thats just what happens on the floor all the time in the NBA, and its why KT is so good at defense in the interior. KT(not TT) uses his footwork and planted strength to disrupt the offensive players footwork and balance. Its about strength in the post, the ability to dish and absorb energy without losing balance necessary to finish the shot. TT is just stronger than Marion or Diaw in the post. He fouled Brand, not because he's lazy, its because his feet are not fast enough to keep up with a younger, quicker player so he needed to use his hands to prevent getting beat(free hoop). The fouls get called a fraction of the time he uses his hands in that way.

2) Your suggestions of changing the suns into a defensive team that does not shoot the three fly in the face of DAntoni's system which has reached 2 WCF's in the last 2 years. Spacing is caused by having 3 of the top 5-6 three point shooters in the NBA, sorry its not steve nashs penetrations alone, otherwise the defense would not extend to the 3 pt line. Having a big guy(TT) who can shoot the 3 at 45% makes a big defender come outside so when steve nash drives, there are less big defenders positioned in the lane area. Spacing prevents the opponents from doubling effectively, and combined with the running, tires those big guys like shaq(and Kaman) out. That is the DAntoni strategy in a nutshell.

Oh yeah, and the comment of a mid range game, it should be obvious that penetrations with good spacing lead to a good mid range game. If the D takes away the three, the midrange game will be there, but if the D doesnt take away the three, what do you think would happen to the number of defenders from mid-range in?? In that case it really helps to be able to shoot the 3.

To use an analogy with cars, the suns are a porsche, dont try to make them into a pickup truck.

 

[ShuHanGuanYu]

Your suggestions of changing the suns into a defensive team that does not shoot the three fly in the face of DAntoni's system which has reached 2 WCF's in the last 2 years. Spacing is caused by having 3 of the top 5-6 three point shooters in the NBA, sorry its not steve nashs penetrations alone, otherwise the defense would not extend to the 3 pt line. Having a big guy(TT) who can shoot the 3 at 45% makes a big defender come outside so when steve nash drives, there are less big defenders positioned in the lane area. Spacing prevents the opponents from doubling effectively, and combined with the running, tires those big guys like shaq(and Kaman) out. That is the DAntoni strategy in a nutshell.

Oh yeah, and the comment of a mid range game, it should be obvious that penetrations with good spacing lead to a good mid range game. If the D takes away the three, the midrange game will be there, but if the D doesnt take away the three, what do you think would happen to the number of defenders from mid-range in?? In that case it really helps to be able to shoot the 3.

To use an analogy with cars, the suns are a porsche, dont try to make them into a pickup truck.

I'm still saying that team after team has won the NBA title without having a big man who can shoot 45% from three. I don't know why this spacing is all the sudden a requirement for a title. They can still have plenty of spacing, they'll just play a second mid-range shooting big man on the weakside baseline. I don't see that disrupting the entire spacing of the team. Spacing is obviously important, but you can have that without Tim Thomas. Besides, with Amare Stoudemire or Kurt Thomas out there the shot blocker will be on them. So you aren't going to be drawing out any primary big men anymore.

That is D'Antoni's strategy since Kurt Thomas had gone down. If you recall, the Suns were the number two defensive team in the NBA for a long stretch of the season. And they were winning. They were holding their opponents to a second best 43% FG%, and a third best 34.1% 3PT%. They were #1 in the NBA in blocked shots. They had the second best rated defensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 101.0 (San Antonio finished #1 at 100.9). While they were only scoring in the 105 range, they were holding their opponents under 100 points and enjoyed the second best point differential in the NBA. After Kurt got hurt, that all changed.

Why would you even say that I want to make them a team that doesn't shoot the three? What the heck? Just by not having Tim Thomas they won't be able to hit threes? I'll give you some credit here and assume that's not what you would actually say. Last I checked they will still have Nash and Barbosa and Bell and Piatkowski. They still will field three players in most lineups that can kill you from three. Amare being back only opens them up. Once again, they set a record for threes the year before last and they didn't have any big men that were capable of shooting the three. So the assumption that they are leaving the three game is crazy.

I am not changing them into a defensive team. Coach D'Antoni did. Do you think it was a coincidence that he opted to go after Kurt Thomas (someone that is known not by his running ability) and Raja Bell (was not expected to flourish this much on offense) in the same offseason? Do you think it's a coincidence that coach told James Jones that he would get minutes if he could play defense off the bench? Do you think it's a coincidence that we were going after Lindsay Hunter, purely a defensive specialist, this offseason? Or that we supposedly wanted to draft Sene? They are becoming a team that can run, shoot the three and defend. I don't see why that makes them a pickup truck, that makes no sense to me. If anything the Suns are a pickup truck right now, because they sputter and die in the Western Conference the last two years. They've gone through large stretches in the playoffs where their offense sucks. Next year, they'll hopefully be able to play on both ends of the floor and weather those storms. Sorry, but porsches win the title.

 

[nowagimp]

I'm still saying that team after team has won the NBA title without having a big man who can shoot 45% from three. I don't know why this spacing is all the sudden a requirement for a title. They can still have plenty of spacing, they'll just play a second mid-range shooting big man on the weakside baseline. I don't see that disrupting the entire spacing of the team. Spacing is obviously important, but you can have that without Tim Thomas. Besides, with Amare Stoudemire or Kurt Thomas out there the shot blocker will be on them. So you aren't going to be drawing out any primary big men anymore.

That is D'Antoni's strategy since Kurt Thomas had gone down. If you recall, the Suns were the number two defensive team in the NBA for a long stretch of the season. And they were winning. They were holding their opponents to a second best 43% FG%, and a third best 34.1% 3PT%. They were #1 in the NBA in blocked shots. They had the second best rated defensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 101.0 (San Antonio finished #1 at 100.9). While they were only scoring in the 105 range, they were holding their opponents under 100 points and enjoyed the second best point differential in the NBA. After Kurt got hurt, that all changed.

I am not changing them into a defensive team. Coach D'Antoni did. Do you think it was a coincidence that he opted to go after Kurt Thomas (someone that is known not by his running ability) and Raja Bell (was not expected to flourish this much on offense) in the same offseason? Do you think it's a coincidence that coach told James Jones that he would get minutes if he could play defense off the bench? Do you think it's a coincidence that we were going after Lindsay Hunter, purely a defensive specialist, this offseason? Or that we supposedly wanted to draft Sene? They are becoming a team that can run, shoot the three and defend. I don't see why that makes them a pickup truck, that makes no sense to me. If anything the Suns are a pickup truck right now, because they sputter and die in the Western Conference the last two years. They've gone through large stretches in the playoffs where their offense sucks. Next year, they'll hopefully be able to play on both ends of the floor and weather those storms. Sorry, but porsches win the title.

The game changes when the rules change and they rules changed, and historical comparisons of the suns with past plodding teams are not especially meaningfulful.

Dont bone up your arguments too much based on regular season play(before KT went down etc), the defensive strategies change dramatically in the playoffs. The pistons were a high scoring team in the regular season, but in the playoffs they were terrible on offense. The playoffs are just different. Double teaming and trapping are very prevalent in the playoffs. The Dantoni answer to all the playoff trapping and doubling is to create spacing and penetrate and dish to the open guy. That scenario is best realized when shooters are respected.

As far as the need for 4's that can shoot the three, no its not necesssary if you have enough 3's 2's and 1's that can. Diaw, Marion and Jones were all inconsistent, or poor, from 3pt range, so the suns had NO 3's and only 1 4(TT) that could shoot the three consistently. That has not changed, except that now there is piatkowski instead of TT.

As far as KT pulling his man outside, I dont think so, his range is 17'max, and as for Amare becoming a 3 point shooter, jeez who will provide points in the paint?? If the suns are to be balanced, Amare is the guy needed to provide that threat in the paint. It is all the more necessary since KT will not do that from the center position. The hardest offense to stop is the balanced one.

The potential I saw was that TT was a good match with Amare, with TT at the 3pt line and Amare at the elbow running the pick and roll with Nash. The spacing for Amare would be very good for those rim attack moves he is so good at. Put Diaw or Marion(or Jones the way he played in the playoffs) at the 3pt line and their man is shading amare. Put Kt at 17 feet and thats not too far from the elbow, where amare operates, for a double team, so same result. This is especially true as KT is no threat to drive to the hoop.

No, Lindsey Hunter is not a coincidence, he does not turn the ball over as a PG. That is huge in the suns need for a backup PG. His defense doesnt hurt, agreed. The Piatkowski signing is not a coincidence either, is it? But his D is MUCH worse than that of TT, isnt it?

My point is that TT fits this team, since the suns have alot of wings that cant shoot outside particularly well to give Nash the spacing needed for the penetrate and kick or pick and roll. If Jones cant shoot the 3 consistently, he's no better than Hassan Adams, and he costs alot more.

I still dont understand why TT at 21mil/4yrs was not acceptable, but there must be a financial conflict in the long term plan with the 3 first round picks next year. When the Suns face the clips in the playoffs next year, that 21 mil won't look like so much if Amare is not at 95%. This team could have won the championship with amare at 80-85% with TT and KT this year.

 

[George O'Brien]

Actually we don't really know if TT would have come back for $21 million. I'm skeptical. I don't believe in a discount other than as a form of disinformation.
He got $24 million for four years, so that's the number we should be discussing.

Is he worth $6 million a year? Actually it's $12 million due to the luxury tax.
The story with TT is the same with every player. At a low price, you look at what he contributes. At a high price, you look at his weaknesses and limitations.

I've been fooled by a few good months of play by someone like Jimmy Jackson who came to camp last year out of shape and now out of the league (most likely). If JJax had been a free agent last summer a few years younger, the Suns might have made a terrible blunder and I certainly didn't expect his decline to be so rapid. The amazing part is that most players try harder in their contract year and wait until after they sign a new contract to decline.

Is TT another Jimmy Jackson? Probably not, but for that kind of money its nice to be sure.

 

[nowagimp]

Actually we don't really know if TT would have come back for $21 million. I'm skeptical. I don't believe in a discount other than as a form of disinformation.
He got $24 million for four years, so that's the number we should be discussing.

Is he worth $6 million a year? Actually it's $12 million due to the luxury tax.
The story with TT is the same with every player. At a low price, you look at what he contributes. At a high price, you look at his weaknesses and limitations.

I've been fooled by a few good months of play by someone like Jimmy Jackson who came to camp last year out of shape and now out of the league (most likely). If JJax had been a free agent last summer a few years younger, the Suns might have made a terrible blunder and I certainly didn't expect his decline to be so rapid. The amazing part is that most players try harder in their contract year and wait until after they sign a new contract to decline.

Is TT another Jimmy Jackson? Probably not, but for that kind of money its nice to be sure.

1) In this eval you should double every suns salary that you would like to keep, its silly george. TT's camp said 21 mil, DAntoni said 12.

2) You didnt know JJAX would decline so quickly?? Cmon, he was 36 years old, but he was a consistent shooter for 10 years prior, so it was age. Very few swingmen can contribute at 36 in a half court game, let alone a running game. The spurs are also wondering about Horry who whent from Big shot Bob last year to "where is Bob" this year, it happens with age that fast in the NBA. TT is 29 by the way.

3) Players play harder in contract year: yes, but TT has consistently been a 12-16ppg guy his whole career. He has also played consistently better in the playoffs. Heres now in 53 career playoff games he has performed this way:

reg season playoffs
11.7 ppg 13.7ppg
44% FG 47% FG
37% 3pt 44% 3pt
4.0 reb 5.2 reb
1.54 turnovers 1.1 turnovers

Fact is, he ALWAYS plays better when the stakes are high. Show me a player who is a "contract dud" who plays better in the playoffs. TT's stats last year with the suns werent as good as he had in 5 other seasons, so much for playing for the contract(6x??). And yet in the playoffs he was more productive, once again. DAntoni knows this, so I expect the reasons for not signing TT are not any that you have mentioned. More likely, its the 3 first round picks next year, and Marion will still have to go anyway when Diaw and Barbosa's new contacts kick in.

 

[George O'Brien]

1) In this eval you should double every suns salary that you would like to keep, its silly george.

Economists distinguish between average costs, sunk costs, and marginal costs. TT has to be evaluated as a marginal cost in either luxury tax terms or in terms of what has to given up to get below the luxury tax.

The players under contract are sunk costs except in terms of what they can be traded for. There was a lot of discussion about who might be dumped to pay for TT and it was not clear that these moves made the team better.

TT's camp said 21 mil, DAntoni said 12.

I have no doubt the Suns offered 12 for 3, or about $4 million a year on average. It would not be in the luxury tax year one and would be in year two and beyond.

As for what TT's camp is supposed to have said, I'm not sure that's true. It's more like the "someone close to..." type quotes that are not the same at all.

2) You didnt know JJAX would decline so quickly?? Cmon, he was 36 years old, but he was a consistent shooter for 10 years prior, so it was age. Very few swingmen can contribute at 36 in a half court game, let alone a running game. The spurs are also wondering about Horry who whent from Big shot Bob last year to "where is Bob" this year, it happens with age that fast in the NBA. TT is 29 by the way.

It wasn't just age with JJax. He didn't do a lot of off season preparation and was not in good shape when he came to camp. As for Horry, the odd part has been that he was effective in the playoffs so many times while have fairly so-so regular seasons.

The problem with TT is that at $6 million a year, they can't have any nagging doubts about TT's attitude, defensive skills, and working habits.















3) Players play harder in contract year: yes, but TT has consistently been a 12-16ppg guy his whole career. He has also played consistently better in the playoffs. Heres now in 53 career playoff games he has performed this way:

reg season playoffs
11.7 ppg 13.7ppg
44% FG 47% FG
37% 3pt 44% 3pt
4.0 reb 5.2 reb
1.54 turnovers 1.1 turnovers

Fact is, he ALWAYS plays better when the stakes are high. Show me a player who is a "contract dud" who plays better in the playoffs. TT's stats last year with the suns werent as good as he had in 5 other seasons, so much for playing for the contract(6x??). And yet in the playoffs he was more productive, once again. DAntoni knows this, so I expect the reasons for not signing TT are not any that you have mentioned. More likely, its the 3 first round picks next year, and Marion will still have to go anyway when Diaw and Barbosa's new contacts kick in.[/QUOTE]