I thought I read in another thread around here that Stern has no plans to expand the league 'within' the U.S.
So yeah, hornets, grizzlies, charlotte would probably be the three teams most likely to move. But all three have moved recently, or in the case of charlotte...was created because a team moved.
So most of the likely candidates, are probably locked into their cities for a while. I doubt Seattle would get one until 2020...maybe Atlanta's team, but then again, Atlanta deserves a team too, their team's, gm's, and ownership's have just sucked for a long, long time.
Don't forget Las Vegas wants a team as well, so there is even competition if Seattle loses the Sonics. With Las Vegas, every year it looks like a better place to have a pro sports team. At this point the only thing holding it back is the gambling, and societal viewpoints might change enough in a decade or two, the NBA commish might not mind, or if they do, it might be such a good spot for a place that bright minds might just come up with a solution...like the no betting on the LV team for nba things or something.
I agree with the assessment that OKC is a very small market, one that would be hard pressed to sell 15-18k season tickets year in and year out, or thereabouts. Maybe they can get some revenue streams from the new stadium to help, but I think they'd be a perennial feeder team that can't re-sign it's good players..like maybe Kevin Durant?
That said, as the only pro game in town (besides maybe an AFL team) maybe they'll have great attendance. But when I see hornets games not selling out, and they're good, that's a bad sign. Granted it's NO, but size wise, they are more similar in size, then not.
One thing OKC has going for it is that it isn't a 40-50k baseball stadium or a 60-70k football stadium...it's most likely a 16-23k stadium. So smaller market teams are more easily able to fill up a stadium for basketball as opposed to football. Not accounting for how many people follow each sport...i.e. like 60 percent watch basketball, 80 percent baseball, 90 percent football (not actual figures just throwing the variable out there)....then if it takes 2-3 million to find enough fans to fill up a football stadium, it might only be 500k-1million to find enough fans to fill up a basketball stadium.
That said I still think the odds are OKC will be a tough draw for nba fans.
I think they should stay in Seattle. But I also think the state head politicos need to get their head out of the sand. It's probably already too late. But those released emails could be huge trouble. It should be, but I hardly have faith that people's interpretations of the law will be correct. It never seems to be these days. So I would feel it's an uphill battle on that one. (It's clearly shows a breach of contract...but somehow I feel it'll be swept under the rug which is B.S.)
Sad too, cause the region used to have two teams...Sonics, and grizzlies. (like if tucson had a team..actually closer than tucson)
Seattle's been their home since around '67 I think? ~40-41 years. They'll fund a new baseball stadium, and football stadium, but not a basketball one? Guess they don't remember losing the Seattle Pilots (Milwaukee Brewers).
I hope Seattle does save them, because I would suspect it would be like the NFL and no LA team. Decade+ to replace the sonics if ever. (and their region had two as well..that's kind of weird.)
But then again I just thought today that in the NFL teams that like half of the teams that have moved their franchises since 1988, have already won a Superbowl in their new city. (Ravens, Rams) have won it....(Raiders, Cardinals) haven't.
Good luck to you all up there
