I believe that if the Lakers play their game (nice balance of inside/out) and control tempo, they should win in 5. The Lakers can withstand a hot-shooting nite from Phoenix but only if they match that production by getting quality opportunities themselves and executing.
And i realize its been spoken of repeatedly in the presses but when folks speak of the size advantage, what they should state is that the Lakers have loads of talent in their bigs. Any team can have bigs but if their arent worth their sweat on their jerseys it wont amount to much. Gasol, Bynum and Odom are no slouches for being big. They have a size and talent advantage over lots of teams.
The wildcard for this Lakers team, and every knowledgeable Lakers follower knows this, is Lamar Odom. If Lamar has a big series and by big i mean double doubles nightly, the Lakers are hard to beat.
But im expecting an entertaining series to say the least.
can't really argue with this. the way i see the series:
1. amare and gasol will likely guard each other, and likely come close to cancelling each other out. amare doesn't have the same athleticism that he did back when he dominated gasol in the memphis sweep, but his outside game is much improved, as is his defense. gasol's length will bother amare somewhat, so i think it's a wash.
2. bynum will be a problem. but the hope is that even a subpar lopez can mitigate some of the damage he does. eliminate it? no. match it? no way. but mitigate it. getting 7 and 5 out of lopez would already put this suns team in a much better place than they've been in the first two rounds of the playoffs where collins gave them 1 and 0 most nights. his size and movement will also be crucial against bynum. combine that with bynum not being at full strength and this may not be THAT big of a plus (though it WILL UNDOUBTEDLY be a plus) for the lakers.
3. the small forward position. this one is interesting b/c i think both small forwards may likely guard the other team's shooting guard. i think the suns have to put hill on kobe so that richardson has some fresh legs as a scorer. whenever he has to extend himself defensively he shrinks on offense. and even then he usually doesn't do a great job limiting kobe. so slap hill on him. and that's the end of hill. whatever boards/offense we get from him will be gravy b/c he'll be exhausted chasing kobe.
on the flip side, artest may do an admirable job on jrich. i don't think they'll waste having kobe chase him around the floor when he can rest defensively on grant hill. we can only hope artest loses jrich by concentrating on other players on the floor to loosen jrich for 3's. i think artest's offense actually helps to stagnate the laker flow, so though i think he may be a slight advantage over hill he's also far more likely to go nuts, so i'll rule this match up mostly even.
4. kobe waaaaaay over jrich. i suspect that we'll get one or two streaky jrich games, but kobe's consistency and usual dominance over the suns will put us in the whole on this match up big time.
5. nash over fisher, but not by as wide a margin as we might hope. nash has a tendency to be caught looking inside defensively which may free up fisher for big 3's. also fish seems to physically take it at nash effectively. am i saying that fish is going dominate nash? no way, i'm not trying to be that funny. nash will dominate this match up, but perhaps not as much as we might like. the funny thing is everyone keeps asking, "who are the suns going to hide nash on in this series?" uh, fish is on the floor, so we don't need to "hide" him on anyone. he can just camp out on fish.
so up to this point we see the lakers advantages seemingly far outweighing the suns. kobe way over jrich, bynum over lopez, slight artest over hill, amare and gasol wash, and nash big over fisher. so why is this gonna be a series?
6. the bench play. while the lakers likely have the most talented player off the bench (odom), it could be argued that the suns then have the next 5 most talented bench players (dudley, frye, barbosa, dragic, amundson). we've seen it in the first two rounds, and really all season. the bench offers a much different type of play. gritty. defensive. stretch offensively. and though odom can certainly guard frye out to the 3 point lane, that somewhat effectively neutralizes his greath length. likewise if LO is not in the game, one of the other two bigs, gasol or bynum, will have to come out to cover frye. something they're loathe to do. if frye is hitting (and he not be compeletely on fire to be effective here), it'll open up the paint and amare and nash can then do some damage.
to me the biggest factor is confidence. the lakers obviously have it. they are defending world champions. artest is too stupid to know he shouldn't have it. the refs will provide them with more confidence. on the suns' side of the ledger i think amare needs early success to garner that confidence. he traditionally has a difficult time in the lane against their length. nash is likely supremely confident b/c of his past wars with the lakers. but it's the rest of the team that worries me. i remember frye not being able to drop 3's against the lakers and it seemed to be in his head. i hope his experience through the first two rounds put his head right. dud's doesn't worry me at all. he's a hard worker, confidence or not. jrich might be intimidated by the big stage, but thus far through the playoffs he's surprised me, so maybe he'll continue to do so. barbs' confidence is so fragile that i pray he hits his first two shots.
all in all i think the suns have a legit shot. but the bench is likely going to have to be the collective heroes.