Hornets waive Mensah-Bonsu

[asudevil83]

ugh...i give up on this......when the intelligence of people is questioned then a debate is over. who cares who is wrong or right, but i wont take insulting or ass comments are made it becomes pointless because then you just have fighting.

again, i'm not trying to argue that per48 is useless. i'm arguing that when you want to compare per48 stats between different caliber players they can lead to false conclusions about the on the court contribution of a player.

Again, there are reasons players like Barron and Mensah have been waived. their per48 says they are worthy of playing time, while the fact that they arent even 13th men on benches tells another. this is the flaw i find with per48.

and i guess i'd even say that the statistical analysis of per48 would give an accurate representation of the rebounding prowness of a player, but factoring other skills and general mental IQ, crap players such as Barron and Mensah are more of a liability on the floor in other respects.

 

[Bufalay]

A challenge for those of you who believe that 'garbage time' per48 stats are inflated. I wouldn't ask you to prove its true but I challenge you to gather some statistical evidence that supports it. A few players who played enough GT minutes to establish a basis for their 'inflated' stats and then by some stroke of luck get to play decent minutes in non-GT. If their average net change is significantly downward then you have some evidence, otherwise you don't and its still just an opinion. If the average net change is significantly upward then its probably a wrong opinion. Of course, you could cheat and select only 'downtrending' players but my guess is that you cannot do it even by cheating.

I'd suggest avoiding stls, blks and asts(except for PGs) because they're infrequent so require many more minutes for a basis - about five times as many as points scored or rebounds per48.

The reason I don't think you can find evidence is that the effect, if it exists at all is small (my opinion) and that most players who play GT minutes then non-GT minutes are young players who generally improve over time(not entirely an opinion) and that obliterates the effect you are trying to find.

The most shocking result of all would be anyone rising to this challenge. (Or changing a long cherished opinion - regarded as an established fact.)

Though I have no opinion in this matter, I am interested in the answer. The first player that came to mind for me was Marcus Banks.
With Minnesota he averaged 30 minutes and .39 ppm and when he was with phoenix he had .42 ppm.

Chris Quinn went from .34 ppm and 22mpg with Miami to .28 ppm in 7.6 mpg during his time with NJ ans SA.

Nate Robinson went from .56 ppm in 30 mpg with the knicks to .42 ppm in 14 mpg last year with Boston. Although, now he is playing 19 mpg in boston and his ppm remains at .42. The drop from .56 to .42 is probably a result of the dramatically different paces played by boston and new york.

Can anyone add someone to this list? I guess you should look for players who had a dramatic change in minutes from one season to the next to avoid effects of entering or exiting the player's prime. You should also make sure the player wasn't dealing with significant injuries during that time period.

 

[Bufalay]

Here's a good one.

Damien Wilkins in '07 .38 ppm in 24 mpg in 76 games. In '08 he had .37 ppm in 15 mpg in 41 games. I found an article that said he had fallen out of the rotation that year suggesting that he only played in half the games because he was a garbage time player rather than being injured.

 

[Errntknght]

Here's a good one.

Damien Wilkins in '07 .38 ppm in 24 mpg in 76 games. In '08 he had .37 ppm in 15 mpg in 41 games. I found an article that said he had fallen out of the rotation that year suggesting that he only played in half the games because he was a garbage time player rather than being injured.

This is an example of a players per48 being higher in non-GT than in GT - a case against the opinion that GT per's are inflated. So thanks.

Banks, Quinn's and Nate's per's were also higher when they were playing 'real' minutes than minutes that were probably a higher pctg of GT, so three more cases against the inflation due to GT minutes.

I'm not disagreeing with you, I just want to establish clearly which way these examples point.

 

[Errntknght]

ugh...i give up on this......when the intelligence of people is questioned then a debate is over. who cares who is wrong or right, but i wont take insulting or ass comments are made it becomes pointless because then you just have fighting.

again, i'm not trying to argue that per48 is useless. i'm arguing that when you want to compare per48 stats between different caliber players they can lead to false conclusions about the on the court contribution of a player.

Again, there are reasons players like Barron and Mensah have been waived. their per48 says they are worthy of playing time, while the fact that they arent even 13th men on benches tells another. this is the flaw i find with per48.

and i guess i'd even say that the statistical analysis of per48 would give an accurate representation of the rebounding prowness of a player, but factoring other skills and general mental IQ, crap players such as Barron and Mensah are more of a liability on the floor in other respects.

I apologize for needling you about the +/- .

Its not a flaw with the per48 stats, the flaw is in expecting a stat about a single aspect of a players game to accurately represent his whole game - as you pretty much said in your final paragraph. If Barron's whole game was on a par with his rebounding, he'd probably be a passable backup C - and playing some, somewhere.

If one were the GM of a team desperate for rebounders and started looking around for players that might help, then reb/48 is the place to start - but not the place to stop. One of the safest bets around is that a guy that gets 5 reb/48 is not going to be a wise choice.

 

[Bufalay]

This is an example of a players per48 being higher in non-GT than in GT - a case against the opinion that GT per's are inflated. So thanks.

Banks, Quinn's and Nate's per's were also higher when they were playing 'real' minutes than minutes that were probably a higher pctg of GT, so three more cases against the inflation due to GT minutes.

I'm not disagreeing with you, I just want to establish clearly which way these examples point.

Sorry I forgot to summarize my findings, but yes these stats disagree with the common belief that players tend to score at higher rates during garbage time.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Per 48 stats are helpful in comparing similar players who get similar playing time-starters with starters etc. Garbage time stats skew everything.

 

[Bufalay]

Per 48 stats are helpful in comparing similar players who get similar playing time-starters with starters etc. Garbage time stats skew everything.

The above analysis belies this claim. Of course the scope of this analysis is extremely limited, but it would be nice if you, or anyone else, could contribute some analysis that supports your claim.

 

[BC867]

There are other factors beside garbage time.

Such as bench players on the court with bench players or with some starters. A plus if playing with starters for their skills, but a minus for chemistry.

And bench players going against the oppositions' bench players or are they facing starters on the court?

And the position they are playing. A Small Forward trying to cover Power Forward. A Forward trying to cover Center. A Small Guard playing Big Guard.

A defensive specialist on a team with poor team defense.

I am big on math in many applications of life. Even more than language, I believe that Algebra (the relationship of things to one another -- time, space, etc.) is the most important subject in school. I know that many people would disagree.

Unfortunately there are too many variables in the case of NBA players (particularly Bench players) for their individual +/- to be truly meaningful.