How A Pats' Trade Sets Up A Two-For-One For The Cardinals

[Mitch]

* Just read articles and blogs in today's newspapers from Carolina, Denver, Buffalo and Cincinnati and there seems to be a concensus about the first four picks:

1. CAR: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn. They "love" him---according to their beat writers---and prefer him to Gabbert---they also love WR A.J. Green (whom Charlie Casserly is picking at #1 in his mock draft) and CB Patrick Peterson (whom Casserly has going to Buffalo at #3). The Carolina writers are convinced the choice will be Newton.

2. DEN: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama. While the articles suggest that QB is not out of the question, nor would a young CB in Peterson---the general sense is the greatest need is on the defensive line and the clear favorite here is Dareus (whom Todd McShay now has as his #1 pick in the draft).

3. BUF: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M. The Bill's writers are conviced that Miller will be the pick---and that the team is happy with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick enough to try to pick up a QB later in the draft.

4. CIN: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri. The Bengals' writers sense that whichever QB falls to Cincy at #4, they will take him (either Gabbert or Newton---and Newton is working out with the Bengals this week).

So, again, this presents quite a dilemma for the Cardinals at #5. the highest rated player on the board is CB Patrick Peterson---a player that Rod Graves himself has been raving about. But---having drafted a CB in the first round three years ago and one in the 4th round two years ago---the Cardinals run the risk of overdrafting at the position---and, imo, if the Cardinals---once again---ignore their most glaring need at OLB in the first round, as they did the past two years---they are making a huge mistake.

There are pass rushing studs in the first round---but not at #38. Sam Acho is a nice player---but he is not a pass rushing stud and he would not be able to be a rush DE in the 4 man nickel and dime defenses. The Cardinals need to do what the Steelers do---they need to draft players at OLB who can play OLB in the 34 AND can rush the passer at DE in a four man line.

I read an article this morning that the Patriots are very seriously considering moving up and their targets are A.J. Green and Nick Fairley---both of whom are on the board with this pick.

The reason why the Pats want to move up---per the article---is that they don't have room on their roster for the number of picks they have in this draft (Note too: this year they cannot trade picks for future picks which is what they prefer to do)---and they feel like they would rather draft a stud WR or DE than trade for one.

Question for everyone:

If the Patriots offered the Cardinals their #17, #28 and #92 picks for the #5 pick, would you take the deal?

I think the Pats would prefer to keep their #33 pick as they (a) won't have to pay 1st round money to the #28 pick; (b) will have all night to prepare for the #33 pick (and to entertain trade offers there); (c) it's only a five pick differential.

1st Round:

My thinking is that with the #17 and #28 picks the Cardinals will be able to draft TWO of the following three players:

Ryan Kerrigan, OLB/DE, Purdue
Justin Houston, OLB/DE, Georgia
Jabaal Sheard, OLB/DE, Pittsburgh

If we stay put and draft Peterson at #5, none of these players will be available at #38. I guarantee it. In this scenario we get two of them.

2nd Round:

Then at #38...I try to hit the jackpot with LB Bruce Carter, who drops because he is rehabbing from an ACL injury. What fascinates me about Carter is what he would look like at SILB, where I believe he could be lights-out. He is one of the best linebackers in the draft at taking on and shedding blockers...he is extremely instinctive...and oh that speed and quickness to the ball. Hias speed and agility allow him to be effective in coverage. Plus, he is a wham-bam tackler.

My other hope here is QB Colin Kaepernick. I have a feeling he will be one of the first five players taken in the second round---but if he's there at #38, I take him. I see Kaepernick as having a rare combination of height, speed, vision and arm strength (he needs to shorten his delivery---but his ball speed---63 mph---was the highest at the combine). And I get the sense that this kid is one of the fiercest and smartest competitors in the draft. It won't take him too much time to compete for the starting job, imo.

3rd Round:

With two 3rd round picks at #69 and #92 my hopes would be to take two of the following:

Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky
Greg McElroy, QB, Alabama (if Kaepernick is taken prior to #38)
Mason Foster, ILB, Washington
Nate Irving, ILB, North Carolina St.
Kelvin Sheppard, ILB, LSU

It's time for Whiz to start drafting to suit the dink and dunk...which was so successful with Warner. We need to commit to spreading the field with 4 WR sets and 1 RB. The irony is: we run better out of that set anyway as the opposing LBers have to flex wider than they would normally do because of the double slots. And since we almost never throw to a TE or FB, why even bother with them (except in short yardage situations)?

Cobb is the ultimate slot WR. He's clutch and explosive in the open field. Does not go down easliy.

McElroy would thrive in Whiz's dink and dunk, because he has a quick setup, is poised reading his progressions, does not force passes, and hits the safety valve when options #1 and #2 are covered.

If you think #92 is too early for McElroy, I will make you another guarantee: he will not be on the board when the Cardinals pick in the 4th round. The Cardinals thought Mike Kafka would be available when they picked in the 4th round last year---and the Eagles stepped right in front of them to take him. McElroy has stated himself that he will make a quicker transition into the NFL than any QB in the draft---and there's some credence to this, especially since McElroy played and thrived in a pro system at Alabama, while the other top QB propects did not.

In the Cardinals' dink and dunk you need what Warner gave them: toughness, extreme smarts in reading defenses and beating the blitz, and good accuracy. McElroy possesses all of these traits.

I like Foster, Irving and Sheppard---I lean toward Foster because of his exemplary athelticism---but good cases can be made for Irving (good instincts and zone cover ability) and Sheppard (very good thumper).

4th Round:

Time to add an edge tackle who has the feet and balance to thwart speed rushers:

James Carpenter, T, Alabama
Jason Pinkston, T, Pittsburgh
James Brewer, T, Indiana
Marcus Gilbert, T, Florida
Jah Reid, T, Central Florida

5th Round:

In sticking with the dink and dunk...let's go get a G who may well be the best inside pass protector in this class:

Andrew Jackson, G, Fresno St.

6th Round:

Let's go get a couple of sleepers here: (likely PS players to begin with---but good depth players once they develop)

Jonathan Cornell, ILB, Mississippi
Cedric Thronton, 34DE, Southern Arkansas

7th Round:

Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh

 

[Crazy Canuck]

1. NE wanting to come up to #5 to pick Peterson is one thing; allowing him to drop to SF is another.

2. No problem with Kerrigan at #17 in the scenario, but would go with Ponder at #28, and not set my eyes on another later project.

3. Carter would be fine in the second round.

(However, if the first 4 picks go as you predicted, I think the Cards take Peterson as a CB of the present, and Safety of the future.)

 

[splitsecond]

What a tough choice to make, especially with risking that Peterson falls to SF. I am a pretty firm believer, however, that a coverage team of DRC/Toler/Peterson would create a heck of a lot of coverage sacks.

And also, let's not forget that the zone blitz, if we are really going to it full bore, does not necessarily require the absolute best pass rushers, just the most disciplined.

 

[joeshmo]

Both Mortenson and Schefter recently tweeted this past week that future draft picks are in fact allowed to be traded.

The only caveat is that the NFL is telling teams to do it at their own risk because one of the current court cases can do away with the draft all together, including free agency as well. While this has a .0001% chance of happening they still have to tell teams the "at own risk" phrase.

 

[Garthshort]

Cam Newton at #1, would, imo, be a big mistake by Carolina. There are just too many questions about him, though there are many things to like. I feel they should take Dareus and build their defense up to playoff level. And then turn their offense over to Jimmy Clausen, and let him lead them straight to Andrew Luck, and use this season as a building block. I have to run, but will come back to the Cards, later.

 

[az jam]

The Cardinals need to do what the Steelers do---they need to draft players at OLB who can play OLB in the 34 AND can rush the passer at DE in a four man line.

If Gabbert, Newton & Von Miller are gone when the Cards pick don't be surprised if DE/OLB Robert Quinn becomes the pick.

Quinn fills this need probably as good if not better than Von Miller. There was a reason why Whisenhunt went to the North Carolina Pro Day.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Not one difference maker IMO in your entire draft Mitch. No thanks.

I would be down to trade back 5-7 spots and draft Quinn. I am thinking he is going to be better then Von Miller and an extra 2nd rounder could be used in a QB trade or draft one of the Top 4 guys that falls.

 

[Garthshort]

Mitch, I doubt very much that the Cards wait until the fourth round to select an OL. I feel they'll go OL in the second or at the latest the third round. And since I expect them to trade (after the Draft) for a QB, I don't see them drafting a QB at all. To do so would say, at least to me, that we don't expect Skelton to make it. Bartell seems like a good third QB with Hall on the PS. Your picks for the first make sense, OLB/Pass Rusher, but even if we ended up with all those picks (very doubtful), I can't see us taking so many LB's. And isn't it about time that we address the TE situation in the top three or four rounds? I guess the team has targeted FA's, at least on their wish list, so that could influence how the draft will go. But, once again, your post made for enjoyable reading.

 

[Broseph]

If Peterson is available at number 5, I believe the cardinals will take him, and rightfully so. The dude can instantly be penciled in starting coverage.

 

[ReddBird]

Mitch, I love that you're thinking about this kind of stuff (I thought I was alone in the world) but I don't think things are gonna fall this way.

We'll get Von Miller or Peterson at #5 and New England will swap with somebody else.

 

[joeshmo]

There was a reason why Whisenhunt went to the North Carolina Pro Day.

I think I would agree if it were any other year. But because of the lockout Head Coaches, Owners and GM's are showing up at a ton more pro days then they normally would for the simple fact that they just do not have anything else to do besides draft prep. They don't have to meet, greet, and sale themselves to free agents, they don't have to try and re-sign their own free agents, they don't have to come up with OTA and workout plans, run offseason workouts, and so forth. They got a lot of time on their hands that they normally wouldn't have.

 

[Duckjake]

ignore their most glaring need at OLB in the first round,

So what you and many others are saying is that O'Brien Schofield was not the great pick so many have claimed. That he is nothing more than a second team OLB.

I don't agree that the Cards #1 need is a WOLB pass rusher. To me the need is on the other side where a replacement for Haggens is paramount.

The more I look at this draft and the more I put my 50 years of experience as a Cardinal fan the more I think the pick this year, if they are still there, is AJ Green or Julio Jones. The Bidwills love WRs. They love a pass first offense. We went to the SB throwing the ball all over the lot.

And what the owners want the owners get.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

The Cardinals need to do what the Steelers do---they need to draft players at OLB who can play OLB in the 34 AND can rush the passer at DE in a four man line.

If Gabbert, Newton & Von Miller are gone when the Cards pick don't be surprised if DE/OLB Robert Quinn becomes the pick.

Quinn fills this need probably as good if not better than Von Miller. There was a reason why Whisenhunt went to the North Carolina Pro Day.

Yes there is. It's closer to Augusta, and the Masters.

And, while no denying Quinn's pass rushing talents, no one on the NFL Network thought that he could easily transition to a 3-4 OLB. Miller, however, is viewed as ideal.

 

[ARZCardinals]

Two words on why you don't trade down:

Terrell Suggs

We instead got
Calvin Pace
BJ skillet hands

If you can get pp7 you TAKE pp7

 

[Seandonic]

Given those picks I would choose:

1st Round:
#17 OT Anthony Costanzo, B.C. I would move L. Brown back to RT where he belongs.
#28 QB Christian Ponder, FSU. If free-agency ever happened I would still pick up Bulger.

2nd Round:
#38 OLB/DE Sam Acho, Texas. I realize the Cards need a major upgrade at the OLB position. However, most pass rush specialist type guys take a good long while to start producing, no matter how high they are picked. It is usually the third year when the light goes on. I would therefore really try and pick someone up in free-agency or trade to contribute while Acho and Schofield developed.

3rd Round:
#69 ILB Kelvin Sheppard, LSU. Big kid to eventually play next to little kid (D. Washington)
#92 TE Luke Stocker, Tenn. The Cards have got to have a decent TE!

4th Round:
#103 G/C John Moffitt, Wisc. Hopefully he would be here but if not, any other interior linemen please.

5th Round:
#136 OLB/DE Cliff Matthews, S.C. "Big framed...edge rusher with good motor who is tough, intense, and competitive...passionate about football and (has) an aggressive temperament that suggest he'll find a way to succeed." Quote from ProFootballWeekly.

6th Round:
#171 OT Chris Hariston, Clem. O-Line depth.
#186 NT Anthony Gray S. Miss. Back up to D. Williams

7th Round:
#248 CB Josh Thomas, Buff. Can always use DB's.

 

[ARZCardinals]

The day the Pats make a move that works out well for the other team give me a call.

The second the Pats call is we should be hanging up the phone like it's our ex-wife calling asking for money.

 

[Duckjake]

Two words on why you don't trade down:

Terrell Suggs

We instead got
Calvin Pace
BJ skillet hands

If you can get pp7 you TAKE pp7

I agree on Peterson. We already made a mistake passing on a Peterson in the draft. But Calvin Pace was our coaches problem not a player not worth a pick in the middle of the first round.

Since going to the Jets: he has averaged 60 tackles, 7 sacks and 3FF

The one season the Cards actually used him properly: 98 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 6pdf an interception and a forced fumble.

He's had a heck of a lot better career than Michael Haynes or Jerome McDougle.

So of course right as we get ready to switch to a 3-4 full time we let Pace go for nothing.

 

[Cardiac]

I think I would agree if it were any other year. But because of the lockout Head Coaches, Owners and GM's are showing up at a ton more pro days then they normally would for the simple fact that they just do not have anything else to do besides draft prep. They don't have to meet, greet, and sale themselves to free agents, they don't have to try and re-sign their own free agents, they don't have to come up with OTA and workout plans, run offseason workouts, and so forth. They got a lot of time on their hands that they normally wouldn't have.

First of all I would like to say THANKS for all the info and insight you bring to the board. I couldn't understand why future draft picks couldn't be traded and your info on the other post in this thread explained how that rumor got started and why it isn't accurate. The above post is very insightful and makes a ton of sense. I would add that NC has a bunch of talent entering the draft this year (with red flags) and I'm not suprised that there were a ton of HC's etc at their pro day. My draft day philosophy could almost be draft a NC player in each round this year.


As to the thread topic, I would absolutely do the trade down. 6 picks in the first 103 slots in the draft is dynasty building material. I ask myself if I would trade 3 picks (two 1sts and a 3rd) for a young Champ Bailey or Woodson. That would be the case using Mitche's scenario. In a draft deep with front 7 defensive talent and O-line talent whose value is mid/late 1st rd and fairly deep I would rather use the extra picks then swing for the fences with PP7.

If the Cards draft a QB this year it is because they love a specific prospect and don't feel Skelton is a PQBOF. They will get a vet FA this offseason (whenever that happens) so having Skelton and another youngin to develop is a bit redundent unless said youngin is a 1st rounder.

Ideally we draft a SOLB and SILB early in the draft. A TE and legit LT would also be nice. If we draft a LT I slide Levi into the LG slot and consider the Oline basically fixed. A NT and CB for depth and competition and let the party begin.

 

[Southpaw]

Ryan Kerrigan, OLB/DE, Purdue
Justin Houston, OLB/DE, Georgia
Jabaal Sheard, OLB/DE, Pittsburgh

If we stay put and draft Peterson at #5, none of these players will be available at #38. I guarantee it. In this scenario we get two of them.

2nd Round:

Then at #38...I try to hit the jackpot with LB Bruce Carter, who drops because he is rehabbing from an ACL injury.

Way too skewed to one side of the roster.

 

[JeffGollin]

Mitch - You can't overdraft at CB. (i.e. you can never have too many corners).

You can always use one of the three guys as a nickel corner. Also, we're talking about relatively small, quick guys who have to play physical and, therefore, are likely to get nicked more than a couple of times during a season.

If Peterson is the best available player on our board, I can practically guarantee you that, that if we don't draft him, the football gods will inflict a season-ending injury on either Toler or DRC.

 

[Mainstreet]

My thoughts seem to change daily, but I agree about drafting Petersen. According to some he is the best overall talent in the draft and he plays a critical position, CB. I agree, a team can never have too many CBs.

 

[Duckjake]

Way too skewed to one side of the roster.

I don't think so for this year. The Cards had 6 key players on defense last season who are 30 or older: Wilson 31, Lenon 33, Haggans 34, Porter 34, Robinson 36 and Hayes 30.

Only Faneca on the offense was over 30.

 

[john h]

1. NE wanting to come up to #5 to pick Peterson is one thing; allowing him to drop to SF is another.

2. No problem with Kerrigan at #17 in the scenario, but would go with Ponder at #28, and not set my eyes on another later project.

3. Carter would be fine in the second round.

(However, if the first 4 picks go as you predicted, I think the Cards take Peterson as a CB of the present, and Safety of the future.)

I would go with your 3 for 1 swap with the Patriots. I also would go for taking McElroy although I think Ryan Mallet has more upside.

There is one thing that should be thought through very carefully. Is the staff convinced that we can sign Firzgerald to an extension? If there is any doubt and the Pats really are in need of a WR it would seem we could get even more picks and perhaps an active player on their team by trading Fitz rather than just let him walk next year. I sure do not want to lose Fitz but he has made it clear that who we sign at QB will be a deal maker or a deal buster. He says it is all about winning now that he has all the money he will ever need. Unless we can convince him we are going to sign a QB he thinks can help us win a division championship now and not 3 years from now, he is out of here. There is probably not a top team in the NFL he can not sign with and it want be to the highest bidder. It will be a team that has the best shot to go the SuperBowl.

 

[ARZCardinals]

I still can't believe you'd go for this trade....dumb

PP7 is the best athlete in the draft

and you'll give him up for 3 good players.


This is why you end up with BJ and Pace rather than Suggs.

I don't care if Pace was playing at his current level ...he is still nowhere near the beast that Suggs is.

There is a reason we are picking #5....so we need to take the best player avail at #5

 

[WildBB]

*
Then at #38...I try to hit the jackpot with LB Bruce Carter, who drops because he is rehabbing from an ACL injury. What fascinates me about Carter is what he would look like at SILB, where I believe he could be lights-out. He is one of the best linebackers in the draft at taking on and shedding blockers...he is extremely instinctive...and oh that speed and quickness to the ball. Hias speed and agility allow him to be effective in coverage. Plus, he is a wham-bam tackler.

My other hope here is QB Colin Kaepernick. I have a feeling he will be one of the first five players taken in the second round---but if he's there at #38, I take him. I see Kaepernick as having a rare combination of height, speed, vision and arm strength (he needs to shorten his delivery---but his ball speed---63 mph---was the highest at the combine). And I get the sense that this kid is one of the fiercest and smartest competitors in the draft. It won't take him too much time to compete for the starting job, imo.

[/COLOR][/B]

Like the Carter possibility. He can flat out play. That team would have been scary with Quinn on it. Kaepernick has to be in the discussion too.

Here's another possibility. Got to love football players who like to wrestle!


http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1277439

Watkins if he falls because of his age would be an awsome selection as well.