How Much More Accurate Can Rosen Become

[juza76]

I am trying to avoid making this about Murray and focusing on Rosen understanding that the greater likelihood is that we stay with Rosen.

Going by that, where will he be in 3-4 years

Having a top 3 pick next year

 

[juza76]

I think that KK and Clements will improve Rosen. Rosen is smart and willing to learn. He is committed. I also feel that Keim is building a better team than what we had last year. I do like the players that have already been signed. Assuming we keep Rosen, we can get some really good players in the draft especially in the first 3 rounds.
IMO Rosen can develop with this coaching staff and team into a solid qb.

Improve yes probable
Improve enough to make this team competitive, I doubt
But I think we can stick with him, trading down and filling some of our roster weakness, and going into the next season (2020)with a better roster and just a glaring need, the qb position

 

[Chris_Sanders]

My bad Chris. I did mean aren’t taking Murray. Let me rephrase do YOU want us to drsft Murray? It appears many of your ost lean that way. Sorry if I don’t recall you posting your view on wanting Murray.

I would take Murray based on his upside and value compared to a defensive player but that doesn't mean that those that want to stay with Rosen are wrong.

Safe play is to stand pat, take Williams or Bosa, and be happy that you have seen Rosen's floor and his most likely outcome is an average NFL starter (QB ranked 20-10)

Risk play is to take Murray because his upside is top 10 but he could also spectacularly flame out.

 

[Chopper0080]

I would take Murray based on his upside and value compared to a defensive player but that doesn't mean that those that want to stay with Rosen are wrong.

Safe play is to stand pat, take Williams or Bosa, and be happy that you have seen Rosen's floor and his most likely outcome is an average NFL starter (QB ranked 20-10)

Risk play is to take Murray because his upside is top 10 but he could also spectacularly flame out.

This is a very well reasoned opinion regardless of which player you prefer.

 

[football karma]

I would take Murray based on his upside and value compared to a defensive player but that doesn't mean that those that want to stay with Rosen are wrong.

Safe play is to stand pat, take Williams or Bosa, and be happy that you have seen Rosen's floor and his most likely outcome is an average NFL starter (QB ranked 20-10)

Risk play is to take Murray because his upside is top 10 but he could also spectacularly flame out.

I think this also captures why the Cards hired Kingsbury

they could have gone the standard "solid coordinator with NFL experience" --

but in Kingsbury they are taking the riskier route -- trying to jump to the leading edge of offensive trends in the NFL rather than being a middle of the pack follower with a Adam Gase (or equivalent).

So -- at QB, do you take a guy who might be like Eli Manning, where if everything around him is very good, his game elevates just enough to win you SBs?

Or: at Qb do you go with a guy that has the potential to elevate the offense around him -- like Rogers or Russell Wilson? (Disclaimer: NFL comps given only as comps, not as predictions)

I think Mike B / Keim are so POd at themselves for going the "NFL standard" route last year they are ready to accept risk by the bucketful.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

Risk play is to take Murray because his upside is top 10 but he could also spectacularly flame out.

Why is his upside top 10?

Because of his college stats?

Because he won the Heisman?

Heisman-winning QB's have not fared well in the NFL.

How many Heisman-winning QB's were ever taken number one overall and won a Super Bowl (as a QB)?

Spoiler

One. Drafted in 1971. Had quite a mediocre career. More INT's than TD's. Career completion percentage of 52.5%.

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[cardncubfan]

Interesting take on Rosen.

Completion Percentage

Josh Rosen completed 217 of 393 passes for a paltry 55.2% completion rate. This is, by all measures, fairly miserable. The average completion percentage across all passes thrown by 1st round rookie QB's in this study, however, is 57%. Had Rosen completed only 8 more passes across 2018 (less than 1 per start), he would have been above average in this measure. 27 quarterbacks register with a lower completion rate than Rosen over their rookie campaigns. Interestingly, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, and Matthew Stafford are all players with reasonable sample sizes that completed a lower percentage of their passes.

https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2019/3/22/18268320/a-statistical-defense-of-josh-rosen

 

[GuernseyCard]

I think this also captures why the Cards hired Kingsbury

they could have gone the standard "solid coordinator with NFL experience" --

but in Kingsbury they are taking the riskier route -- trying to jump to the leading edge of offensive trends in the NFL rather than being a middle of the pack follower with a Adam Gase (or equivalent).

So -- at QB, do you take a guy who might be like Eli Manning, where if everything around him is very good, his game elevates just enough to win you SBs?

Or: at Qb do you go with a guy that has the potential to elevate the offense around him -- like Rogers or Russell Wilson? (Disclaimer: NFL comps given only as comps, not as predictions)

I think Mike B / Keim are so POd at themselves for going the "NFL standard" route last year they are ready to accept risk by the bucketful.

So where does hiring Tom Clements, Rodgers former QB coach and GB coordinator, fit in?

Seems to me, they want to work with Rosen.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Interesting take on Rosen.

Completion Percentage

Josh Rosen completed 217 of 393 passes for a paltry 55.2% completion rate. This is, by all measures, fairly miserable. The average completion percentage across all passes thrown by 1st round rookie QB's in this study, however, is 57%. Had Rosen completed only 8 more passes across 2018 (less than 1 per start), he would have been above average in this measure. 27 quarterbacks register with a lower completion rate than Rosen over their rookie campaigns. Interestingly, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, and Matthew Stafford are all players with reasonable sample sizes that completed a lower percentage of their passes.

https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2019/3/22/18268320/a-statistical-defense-of-josh-rosen

I have no problem remembering 8 drops.

 

[oaken1]

12.6% give or take a point

 

[FB94]

220 / 221 whatever it takes

 

[football karma]

So where does hiring Tom Clements, Rodgers former QB coach and GB coordinator, fit in?

Seems to me, they want to work with Rosen.

Coaching staff came together before it was clear Murray was not going baseball and was all-in on the NFL-- so working with Rosen was in mind

but Clements is NFL experienced support structure for a HC who has never coached in the NFL. I dont think it signals one QB or another. He has experience with two guys -- Favre and Rogers -- who were good working outside the structure of the offense. He would work for Murray as well

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Why is his upside top 10?

Because of his college stats?

Because he won the Heisman?

Heisman-winning QB's have not fared well in the NFL.

How many Heisman-winning QB's were ever taken number one overall and won a Super Bowl (as a QB)?

Spoiler

One. Drafted in 1971. Had quite a mediocre career. More INT's than TD's. Career completion percentage of 52.5%.

You must be registered for see images attach

I really don't want to turn this into another Murray discussion. There are plenty of those so I will go simplest answer possible, multiple analytical indicators give that outcome.

That is only strong indicator though so he could totally flame out instead.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

This is a very well reasoned opinion regardless of which player you prefer.

Thank you! I was justifiably called out for being snarky and getting caught up in the discussions.

I need to not do that

 

[dscher]

Coaching staff came together before it was clear Murray was not going baseball and was all-in on the NFL-- so working with Rosen was in mind

but Clements is NFL experienced support structure for a HC who has never coached in the NFL. I dont think it signals one QB or another. He has experience with two guys -- Favre and Rogers -- who were good working outside the structure of the offense. He would work for Murray as well

Agreed. I mean, I see the connection with Clements and Rosen. But that is trumped by the kingsbury/Murray connection.

 

[dscher]

Thank you! I was called out justifiably for being snarky and getting caught up in the discussions.

I need to not do that

I think you are right in line man. We all get a little passionate sometimes and it is what it is. Opinions are just that. Opinions.. At the end of the day, we are fans that just want the best for the franchise.

 

[Krangodnzr]

So where does hiring Tom Clements, Rodgers former QB coach and GB coordinator, fit in?

Seems to me, they want to work with Rosen.

Or maybe he wants to work with Kliff.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Agreed. I mean, I see the connection with Clements and Rosen. But that is trumped by the kingsbury/Murray connection.

Trumped, TRUMPED ?

How dare you politicize this debate!

 

[GuernseyCard]

Or maybe he wants to work with Kliff.

Clements/Rodgers/Huntley (GB)

Huntley/Rosen (UCLA)

We can all find dots, if we look hard enough.

 

[HGC]

I don’t know who’s going to be the quarterback of the Cardinals next year but I’m 100% certain the decision will have nothing to do with Tom Clements and who he’s worked with before.

 

[GuernseyCard]

I don’t know who’s going to be the quarterback of the Cardinals next year but I’m 100% certain the decision will have nothing to do with Tom Clements and who he’s worked with before.

Your 100% certainty plus 2-bucks will buy a cup of coffee.

At a minimum, his background points to how they'll modify the KK system for the NFL and given that his prototype QB was Rodgers, Rosen may be best to run it.

 

[dscher]

Trumped, TRUMPED ?

How dare you politicize this debate!

 

[Jetstream Green]

Or maybe he wants to work with Kliff.

Or maybe he wants to work... but can you imagine the intrigue which has gone on at Cardinal headquarters since Murray has declare for the draft

 

[GatorAZ]

Interesting pre-draft twitter thread if you have time for it...

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[Krangodnzr]

Interesting pre-draft twitter thread if you have time for it...

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

And people think we are crazy for wanting one of the best QBs in college football history even if he doesnt have ideal height.

It's funny because Kurt Warner said that even though he thinks height can be an issue, he flat out said most of his throw were made by seeing between linemen NOT over them.