'What's Going On' with Rudy Gay?
posted: Thursday, February 9, 2006
It's time for our regular report, in which we update the Top 100 and highlight a few of the best and worst from the week.
Who's No. 1? UConn's Rudy Gay began the season as the consensus choice as the No. 1 NBA draft prospect. After a disappointing start to the season, will he end up back on top?
Gay finally is living up to his potential of late, averaging 21 ppg and 9.3 rpg while shooting 54 percent from the field over his last three games.
This has been the Gay scouts have been looking for since his opening game domination of Arkansas in Maui. Gay, as you know by now, has all the tools that NBA scouts look for in a superstar. He's long, super-athletic, loaded with talent and versatile.
But he doesn't always play that way, leading scouts to question whether he has the mentality to be a star at the next level.
Lately, Gay has been quieting the skeptics. After passively hanging around on the perimeter for much of the season, he's finally on the attack. Gay is starting to look for his shot, put the ball on the floor and post up.
While he's still not doing these things to the extent he's capable of, he's been good enough over the past few weeks for scouts to start mentioning his name as a potential No. 1 pick again.
With LaMarcus Aldridge up and down at the moment (though that's in part the fault of his teammates) and the ongoing questions about how Adam Morrison's game translates at the next level, it could be a three-man race come draft day with teams such as the Bobcats and Celtics preferring Gay, the Hawks, Bulls and Rockets preferring Aldridge and the Blazers, Raptors and Sonics showing a soft spot for Morrison.
High riser: KU swingman Brandon Rush almost kept his name in the draft last June, right out of high school. Had he done so, he might have suffered the same fate as undrafted Kentucky center Randolph Morris.
This season has done wonders to Rush's draft stock, as he continues to put up big game after big game against some of the top competition in the NCAA. His 24 points and 12 rebounds in a blowout of Kentucky turned heads in January. And Rush has kept things going in February with impressive performances against Texas Tech (24 points, 11 rebounds) and Oklahoma (18 points, including two late 3s, to give Kansas the victory).
It's tough to find flaws in Rush's game. He's got the size and athleticism to play both the two and the three in the pros. He's shooting a deadly 53 percent from 3-point range this season and he plays with a smoothness and confidence that are rare in freshmen.
A number of NBA scouts that I have talked to concede that Rush is much better than they thought he'd be at this point in his career. His play lately has moved his stock out of the late first round to No. 18 in our latest top 100.
But every scout that Insider talked to about Rush is cautious about putting him much higher. Some are concerned he doesn't play with the intensity he needs to be a star at the next level. Others are worried about a crooked elbow that prevents him from straightening his right arm all the way (that stems back from a childhood break). Others look at the legacy of his two brothers, JaRon and Kareem, and wonder if the Rush family is destined to come up a little short of NBA stardom.
In any case, scouts expect Rush to enter the draft this spring.
The question is, is it the right time? JaRon entered the draft too early and it cost him. Kareem entered too late in his career and it cost him. Is now the perfect time for Rush to declare?
College kids: Iowa State's Curtis Stinson has been rising and falling in the Top 100 all year. Lately, he's been on fire, averaging 25 ppg, 6 rpg and 6 apg for the Cyclones. That includes his amazing 24-point, 10-rebound, 10-assist performance against Colorado on Sunday.
Some scouts still worry about whether Stinson's scoring instincts will keep him from playing point guard full time in the pros. Some wring their hands over that shaky jump shot of his. But more and more scouts are saying that Stinson has a great shot of landing somewhere in the first round. There's too much talent there to ignore.
In the constant search for big men, scouts are warming up to Texas A&M power forward Joseph Jones after Saturday's monster 31-point performance against Texas and Aldridge (whom he held without a field goal during the game).
Jones has the size and toughness to play the four in the pros. He has the strength and the length to score in post, has developed a nice mid-range jumper, possesses soft hands and is a solid rebounder in the paint. Conditioning and lack of outstanding athleticism (he's not bad, just a little heavy) have scouts comparing him to Zach Randolph. Given the dearth of big men in the draft, keep an eye on him.
Most of our Florida focus this year has been on big man Al Horford and swingman Corey Brewer. But lately, it's been impossible to ignore what's happening with Joakim Noah, a lanky, athletic 6-11 big man who's really turned it on for Florida of late.
Noah is a bright prospect because of his motor in addition to his length and athleticism. He's always around the ball and is an excellent shot blocker. He dominated Kentucky over the weekend, scoring a career-high 26 points on 11-for-13 shooting.
If he can find a way to add more muscle to his thin frame, he'll have a chance to be mid-to-high first-round pick. But that's only if he stays another year at Florida, works on his offense and adds 20 pounds of muscle (which won't be easy, given his frame).
Rutgers guard Quincy Douby has been getting a lot of love in the press lately after several dominating offensive performances in February. A 41-point effort (with nine 3-pointers) versus Syracuse on Feb. 1 really started Douby's draft campaign.
If Douby were to declare, where would he go? Scouts like a lot about his game. He's quick and athletic, he can create his own shot and he's shooting 40 percent from 3-point range. That's a pretty complete package for a guard.
However, that's only half the story. Douby measures in at 6-3, doesn't have many point guard skills to speak of and has a rep of being selfish on offense.
NBA teams do like scorers who can come off the bench and put up some instant offense, but only if they understand and accept their role. It appears Douby would be unwilling to play that part in the pros, according to a number of scouts Insider talked to. If that's so, it would scare off a lot of teams come draft time. As it stands right now, he's probably a second-round pick.
posted: Thursday, February 9, 2006
It's time for our regular report, in which we update the Top 100 and highlight a few of the best and worst from the week.
Who's No. 1? UConn's Rudy Gay began the season as the consensus choice as the No. 1 NBA draft prospect. After a disappointing start to the season, will he end up back on top?
Gay finally is living up to his potential of late, averaging 21 ppg and 9.3 rpg while shooting 54 percent from the field over his last three games.
This has been the Gay scouts have been looking for since his opening game domination of Arkansas in Maui. Gay, as you know by now, has all the tools that NBA scouts look for in a superstar. He's long, super-athletic, loaded with talent and versatile.
But he doesn't always play that way, leading scouts to question whether he has the mentality to be a star at the next level.
Lately, Gay has been quieting the skeptics. After passively hanging around on the perimeter for much of the season, he's finally on the attack. Gay is starting to look for his shot, put the ball on the floor and post up.
While he's still not doing these things to the extent he's capable of, he's been good enough over the past few weeks for scouts to start mentioning his name as a potential No. 1 pick again.
With LaMarcus Aldridge up and down at the moment (though that's in part the fault of his teammates) and the ongoing questions about how Adam Morrison's game translates at the next level, it could be a three-man race come draft day with teams such as the Bobcats and Celtics preferring Gay, the Hawks, Bulls and Rockets preferring Aldridge and the Blazers, Raptors and Sonics showing a soft spot for Morrison.
High riser: KU swingman Brandon Rush almost kept his name in the draft last June, right out of high school. Had he done so, he might have suffered the same fate as undrafted Kentucky center Randolph Morris.
This season has done wonders to Rush's draft stock, as he continues to put up big game after big game against some of the top competition in the NCAA. His 24 points and 12 rebounds in a blowout of Kentucky turned heads in January. And Rush has kept things going in February with impressive performances against Texas Tech (24 points, 11 rebounds) and Oklahoma (18 points, including two late 3s, to give Kansas the victory).
It's tough to find flaws in Rush's game. He's got the size and athleticism to play both the two and the three in the pros. He's shooting a deadly 53 percent from 3-point range this season and he plays with a smoothness and confidence that are rare in freshmen.
A number of NBA scouts that I have talked to concede that Rush is much better than they thought he'd be at this point in his career. His play lately has moved his stock out of the late first round to No. 18 in our latest top 100.
But every scout that Insider talked to about Rush is cautious about putting him much higher. Some are concerned he doesn't play with the intensity he needs to be a star at the next level. Others are worried about a crooked elbow that prevents him from straightening his right arm all the way (that stems back from a childhood break). Others look at the legacy of his two brothers, JaRon and Kareem, and wonder if the Rush family is destined to come up a little short of NBA stardom.
In any case, scouts expect Rush to enter the draft this spring.
The question is, is it the right time? JaRon entered the draft too early and it cost him. Kareem entered too late in his career and it cost him. Is now the perfect time for Rush to declare?
College kids: Iowa State's Curtis Stinson has been rising and falling in the Top 100 all year. Lately, he's been on fire, averaging 25 ppg, 6 rpg and 6 apg for the Cyclones. That includes his amazing 24-point, 10-rebound, 10-assist performance against Colorado on Sunday.
Some scouts still worry about whether Stinson's scoring instincts will keep him from playing point guard full time in the pros. Some wring their hands over that shaky jump shot of his. But more and more scouts are saying that Stinson has a great shot of landing somewhere in the first round. There's too much talent there to ignore.
In the constant search for big men, scouts are warming up to Texas A&M power forward Joseph Jones after Saturday's monster 31-point performance against Texas and Aldridge (whom he held without a field goal during the game).
Jones has the size and toughness to play the four in the pros. He has the strength and the length to score in post, has developed a nice mid-range jumper, possesses soft hands and is a solid rebounder in the paint. Conditioning and lack of outstanding athleticism (he's not bad, just a little heavy) have scouts comparing him to Zach Randolph. Given the dearth of big men in the draft, keep an eye on him.
Most of our Florida focus this year has been on big man Al Horford and swingman Corey Brewer. But lately, it's been impossible to ignore what's happening with Joakim Noah, a lanky, athletic 6-11 big man who's really turned it on for Florida of late.
Noah is a bright prospect because of his motor in addition to his length and athleticism. He's always around the ball and is an excellent shot blocker. He dominated Kentucky over the weekend, scoring a career-high 26 points on 11-for-13 shooting.
If he can find a way to add more muscle to his thin frame, he'll have a chance to be mid-to-high first-round pick. But that's only if he stays another year at Florida, works on his offense and adds 20 pounds of muscle (which won't be easy, given his frame).
Rutgers guard Quincy Douby has been getting a lot of love in the press lately after several dominating offensive performances in February. A 41-point effort (with nine 3-pointers) versus Syracuse on Feb. 1 really started Douby's draft campaign.
If Douby were to declare, where would he go? Scouts like a lot about his game. He's quick and athletic, he can create his own shot and he's shooting 40 percent from 3-point range. That's a pretty complete package for a guard.
However, that's only half the story. Douby measures in at 6-3, doesn't have many point guard skills to speak of and has a rep of being selfish on offense.
NBA teams do like scorers who can come off the bench and put up some instant offense, but only if they understand and accept their role. It appears Douby would be unwilling to play that part in the pros, according to a number of scouts Insider talked to. If that's so, it would scare off a lot of teams come draft time. As it stands right now, he's probably a second-round pick.
. I've been able to catch a couple of the recent Florida games on tv and I have to say that Joakim Noah has been pretty impressive. He runs the court very well, is all out hustle, and is long and athletic (the alley oop dunk against kentucky off the inbounds pass was unreal).
