Draft watch: Who's hot, who's not
posted: Monday, March 20, 2006
In the span of four days, the NCAA Tournament has moved from 64 teams down to 16. A number of the top prospects in the draft have led their teams to victory and, in a few cases, dramatically increased their draft stock in just a few games. Insider spoke with a number of NBA scouts and executives throughout the weekend to get a feel for which prospects helped or hurt themselves during the tournament's first two rounds. NBA scouts tend to keep their projections fairly steady (without dramatic shifts in either direction). But executives, especially GMs, tend to be more swayed by events like the tournament.
Here's a look at who helped or hurt himself in the last four days:
Who's Hot?
Joakim Noah, F/C, Florida: Noah's stellar performance for Florida on Saturday against UW-Milwaukee had scouts and executives buzzing. Everyone knows that Noah is a great athlete with a great motor. On Saturday, Noah showed a number of skills -- passing, perimeter shot, ballhandling -- that haven't been in abundant display all season.
Coach Billy Donovan put Noah at small forward during one series of plays, and he broke his man down off the dribble, delivered a no-look pass on the break and swished an outside jumper.
While Noah is still a work in progress, both physically and as a basketball player, we've moved him up to No. 6 on the Big Board and the Top 100. We've actually had him going as high as No. 4 to Atlanta in our Lottery + Mock Draft for the past two weeks.
It's no longer out of the question that Noah could be a dark-horse candidate for the No. 1 pick in the draft. If Florida continues to dominate (the Gators have looked as impressive as any team in the tournament in the the first two rounds), and if Noah helps lead them to the Final Four, he'll get consideration from teams, such as the Hawks, that are in the market for the combination of size, athleticism and skills that he can deliver.
Brandon Roy, SG, Washington: After a slow start, Roy's been on fire the last two months of the season. He continued his hot streak in the tournament with two outstanding games in which he did just about everything you could ask from a player: He controlled the tempo of the game, scored both inside and outside, and played great defense.
Roy is not the most exciting player in the draft. He lacks the jaw-dropping athleticism and the flair for the dramatic that some of the other top prospects possess.
But is there a more complete guard in the draft? Villanova's Randy Foye is the only other player who really could be in the conversation.
Based on the feedback we've gotten from NBA teams over the past few weeks, we've moved Roy past Arkansas' Ronnie Brewer on our boards and currently have him ranked as the seventh-best prospect in the draft.
Considering that Roy began the season as a second-rounder, that's amazing. If he can help Washington pull an upset over Connecticut this weekend, we might have to move him up another spot or two.
Patrick O'Bryant, C, Bradley: O'Bryant was suspended for the first eight games of the season for getting paid for work he allegedly didn't do in the previous summer. He came back with a bang in his first three games, averaging 16.6 ppg, 13 rpg and 3.5 bpg, and scouts began declaring him the best center prospect in the draft.
However, after those three games, he was up and down most of the season and looked like he was at least one year away from the draft.
He's had another coming-out party in the tournament, holding his own against a very talented and athletic Kansas front line and then outplaying Pittsburgh's Aaron Gray, a player many people projected as a potential first-round pick.
O'Bryant's 10 rebounds against Kansas and 28 points and seven rebounds against Pittsburgh have put him back on the first-round radar screen. Scouts were especially impressed at how O'Bryant handled the more physical Gray on Sunday.
While O'Bryant is still very much a project, his length, athleticism and big-game production in the tournament could land him in the late lottery if he can produce another big game against top-seeded Memphis on Thursday.
Josh McRoberts, PF, Duke: McRoberts was widely hailed as the top freshman in the country at the start of the season. Given the play of North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough, it's hard to argue McRoberts deserves that distinction now.
But McRoberts has more NBA upside than Hansbrough, and after an up-and-down freshman season, McRoberts has come alive the last month of the season. His streak of solid play has extended into the tournament with an impressive 14-point, 13-rebound performance against George Washington (true, GW's Pops Mensah-Bonsu wasn't 100 percent).
That type of play in the tournament was exactly what ignited Marvin Williams' rise last season. If McRoberts can continue to contribute to a Duke run deep into the tournament, he'll get consideration as a top-10 pick. To move into the top five, he would need another year at Duke, according to scouts, so he could be the lead man (without J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams).
Marcus Williams, PG, UConn: If you were a casual basketball watcher, knew nothing of the hype Rudy Gay has gotten from scouts and the Internet, and sat down and watched a UConn game, who would you say was the best player on the team?
It's been pretty clear the last two games that Williams is. He is averaging 20 points and eight assists, with a 5-of-8 mark from 3-point range and just four turnovers in the tournament.
Gay is bigger and more athletic and has all the upside in the world, but when the game is on the line, the ball is in Williams' hands -- and he's delivered.
Williams is the best pure point guard in the nation, and he's proven that he also can put the ball in the basket when the offense stalls.
And he repeatedly showed on Sunday that he has the quickness to get by Rajon Rondo. Considering that Rondo is considered more athletic and quicker -- in fact, one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball -- that says something about Williams.
A couple of scouts compared him favorably to Deron Williams and Andre Miller. Based on how he outplayed Rondo on Sunday (though Rondo played pretty well), we've now ranked Williams as the top point guard in the draft.
Honorable Mention: Randy Foye, PG/SG, Villanova; Shelden Williams, PF, Duke; Ronald Steele, PG, Alabama; Corey Brewer, SG/SF, Florida; Maurice Ager, SG, Michigan State; J.J. Redick, SG, Duke; Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga; Tyler Hansbrough, PF, North Carolina; Al Horford, PF, Florida; Marcelus Kemp, SG, Nevada; Robert Vaden, SG/SF, Indiana; Mustafa Shakur, PG, Arizona; Christian Maraker, C, Pacific
Who's Not?
Gerry McNamara, PG/SG, Syracuse: He was pretty amazing in the Big East tournament, leading a couple of NBA scouts to question whether they had him ranked too low. But any second thoughts about McNamara's status as a second-rounder at best in this year's draft disappeared after his terrible first-round performance against Texas A&M. McNamara didn't make a shot from the field and had as many turnovers as he did assists. Syracuse wouldn't have made it to the Big Dance without McNamara, but the Orange also got tripped up in the first round because of him.
Brandon Rush, SF, Kansas: The Big 12 freshman of the year has been strong this season, but his first-round play against Bradley was ugly (as was his team's). Rush, who has been a steady force for the Jayhawks, went 4-of-14 from the field and never got to the line in KU's loss. Rush has proven this season that he's a legit NBA prospect. But he needs to spend at least one more year in Lawrence before thinking about the NBA draft. This goes for the entire KU squad.
Dee Brown, PG, Illinois: We all love what Dee Brown is made of. He's tough, he's a leader and he plays with great heart. But his shooting stroke and shot selection have been so awful this year that scouts have soured. His shooting woes extended to the tournament, where he went 6-of-25 from the field in two games. If he still wants to be a first-round pick, he'd better hit every shot he takes in NBA workouts.
Shannon Brown, SG, Michigan State: Brown has been steadily moving up our board all season and looked poised to crack the first round if he continued his strong play into the tournament. He didn't. Brown was awful for the Spartans in the first round, shooting just 2-of-11 (for a total of 10-of-41 in his last three games). For a guy who was a borderline first-round pick anyway, it wasn't the impression he wanted to make on NBA scouts. As for MSU's Paul Davis, his lackluster play in the first round didn't help his stock, either.
Joseph Jones, PF, Texas A&M: Jones was considering declaring for the draft after a strong sophomore season for the Aggies. But his 6-of-21 performance in the tournament along with his struggles against the more athletic LSU big men hurt him tremendously. He needs to go back to Texas A&M in great shape next season and develop some consistency.
posted: Monday, March 20, 2006
In the span of four days, the NCAA Tournament has moved from 64 teams down to 16. A number of the top prospects in the draft have led their teams to victory and, in a few cases, dramatically increased their draft stock in just a few games. Insider spoke with a number of NBA scouts and executives throughout the weekend to get a feel for which prospects helped or hurt themselves during the tournament's first two rounds. NBA scouts tend to keep their projections fairly steady (without dramatic shifts in either direction). But executives, especially GMs, tend to be more swayed by events like the tournament.
Here's a look at who helped or hurt himself in the last four days:
Who's Hot?
Joakim Noah, F/C, Florida: Noah's stellar performance for Florida on Saturday against UW-Milwaukee had scouts and executives buzzing. Everyone knows that Noah is a great athlete with a great motor. On Saturday, Noah showed a number of skills -- passing, perimeter shot, ballhandling -- that haven't been in abundant display all season.
Coach Billy Donovan put Noah at small forward during one series of plays, and he broke his man down off the dribble, delivered a no-look pass on the break and swished an outside jumper.
While Noah is still a work in progress, both physically and as a basketball player, we've moved him up to No. 6 on the Big Board and the Top 100. We've actually had him going as high as No. 4 to Atlanta in our Lottery + Mock Draft for the past two weeks.
It's no longer out of the question that Noah could be a dark-horse candidate for the No. 1 pick in the draft. If Florida continues to dominate (the Gators have looked as impressive as any team in the tournament in the the first two rounds), and if Noah helps lead them to the Final Four, he'll get consideration from teams, such as the Hawks, that are in the market for the combination of size, athleticism and skills that he can deliver.
Brandon Roy, SG, Washington: After a slow start, Roy's been on fire the last two months of the season. He continued his hot streak in the tournament with two outstanding games in which he did just about everything you could ask from a player: He controlled the tempo of the game, scored both inside and outside, and played great defense.
Roy is not the most exciting player in the draft. He lacks the jaw-dropping athleticism and the flair for the dramatic that some of the other top prospects possess.
But is there a more complete guard in the draft? Villanova's Randy Foye is the only other player who really could be in the conversation.
Based on the feedback we've gotten from NBA teams over the past few weeks, we've moved Roy past Arkansas' Ronnie Brewer on our boards and currently have him ranked as the seventh-best prospect in the draft.
Considering that Roy began the season as a second-rounder, that's amazing. If he can help Washington pull an upset over Connecticut this weekend, we might have to move him up another spot or two.
Patrick O'Bryant, C, Bradley: O'Bryant was suspended for the first eight games of the season for getting paid for work he allegedly didn't do in the previous summer. He came back with a bang in his first three games, averaging 16.6 ppg, 13 rpg and 3.5 bpg, and scouts began declaring him the best center prospect in the draft.
However, after those three games, he was up and down most of the season and looked like he was at least one year away from the draft.
He's had another coming-out party in the tournament, holding his own against a very talented and athletic Kansas front line and then outplaying Pittsburgh's Aaron Gray, a player many people projected as a potential first-round pick.
O'Bryant's 10 rebounds against Kansas and 28 points and seven rebounds against Pittsburgh have put him back on the first-round radar screen. Scouts were especially impressed at how O'Bryant handled the more physical Gray on Sunday.
While O'Bryant is still very much a project, his length, athleticism and big-game production in the tournament could land him in the late lottery if he can produce another big game against top-seeded Memphis on Thursday.
Josh McRoberts, PF, Duke: McRoberts was widely hailed as the top freshman in the country at the start of the season. Given the play of North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough, it's hard to argue McRoberts deserves that distinction now.
But McRoberts has more NBA upside than Hansbrough, and after an up-and-down freshman season, McRoberts has come alive the last month of the season. His streak of solid play has extended into the tournament with an impressive 14-point, 13-rebound performance against George Washington (true, GW's Pops Mensah-Bonsu wasn't 100 percent).
That type of play in the tournament was exactly what ignited Marvin Williams' rise last season. If McRoberts can continue to contribute to a Duke run deep into the tournament, he'll get consideration as a top-10 pick. To move into the top five, he would need another year at Duke, according to scouts, so he could be the lead man (without J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams).
Marcus Williams, PG, UConn: If you were a casual basketball watcher, knew nothing of the hype Rudy Gay has gotten from scouts and the Internet, and sat down and watched a UConn game, who would you say was the best player on the team?
It's been pretty clear the last two games that Williams is. He is averaging 20 points and eight assists, with a 5-of-8 mark from 3-point range and just four turnovers in the tournament.
Gay is bigger and more athletic and has all the upside in the world, but when the game is on the line, the ball is in Williams' hands -- and he's delivered.
Williams is the best pure point guard in the nation, and he's proven that he also can put the ball in the basket when the offense stalls.
And he repeatedly showed on Sunday that he has the quickness to get by Rajon Rondo. Considering that Rondo is considered more athletic and quicker -- in fact, one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball -- that says something about Williams.
A couple of scouts compared him favorably to Deron Williams and Andre Miller. Based on how he outplayed Rondo on Sunday (though Rondo played pretty well), we've now ranked Williams as the top point guard in the draft.
Honorable Mention: Randy Foye, PG/SG, Villanova; Shelden Williams, PF, Duke; Ronald Steele, PG, Alabama; Corey Brewer, SG/SF, Florida; Maurice Ager, SG, Michigan State; J.J. Redick, SG, Duke; Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga; Tyler Hansbrough, PF, North Carolina; Al Horford, PF, Florida; Marcelus Kemp, SG, Nevada; Robert Vaden, SG/SF, Indiana; Mustafa Shakur, PG, Arizona; Christian Maraker, C, Pacific
Who's Not?
Gerry McNamara, PG/SG, Syracuse: He was pretty amazing in the Big East tournament, leading a couple of NBA scouts to question whether they had him ranked too low. But any second thoughts about McNamara's status as a second-rounder at best in this year's draft disappeared after his terrible first-round performance against Texas A&M. McNamara didn't make a shot from the field and had as many turnovers as he did assists. Syracuse wouldn't have made it to the Big Dance without McNamara, but the Orange also got tripped up in the first round because of him.
Brandon Rush, SF, Kansas: The Big 12 freshman of the year has been strong this season, but his first-round play against Bradley was ugly (as was his team's). Rush, who has been a steady force for the Jayhawks, went 4-of-14 from the field and never got to the line in KU's loss. Rush has proven this season that he's a legit NBA prospect. But he needs to spend at least one more year in Lawrence before thinking about the NBA draft. This goes for the entire KU squad.
Dee Brown, PG, Illinois: We all love what Dee Brown is made of. He's tough, he's a leader and he plays with great heart. But his shooting stroke and shot selection have been so awful this year that scouts have soured. His shooting woes extended to the tournament, where he went 6-of-25 from the field in two games. If he still wants to be a first-round pick, he'd better hit every shot he takes in NBA workouts.
Shannon Brown, SG, Michigan State: Brown has been steadily moving up our board all season and looked poised to crack the first round if he continued his strong play into the tournament. He didn't. Brown was awful for the Spartans in the first round, shooting just 2-of-11 (for a total of 10-of-41 in his last three games). For a guy who was a borderline first-round pick anyway, it wasn't the impression he wanted to make on NBA scouts. As for MSU's Paul Davis, his lackluster play in the first round didn't help his stock, either.
Joseph Jones, PF, Texas A&M: Jones was considering declaring for the draft after a strong sophomore season for the Aggies. But his 6-of-21 performance in the tournament along with his struggles against the more athletic LSU big men hurt him tremendously. He needs to go back to Texas A&M in great shape next season and develop some consistency.
So much for him falling to the Suns! I figured his stock would spike, but not that much. Amazing what a little well-timed exposure in a national magazine can do for you.
