Interesting evolution of the three point shot since it was instituted using openai. "ChatGPT"

[Treesquid PhD]

Using your analysis above can you year by year list the league-wide average three-point field goal percentage for each year, provide the years in list format and as an aggregate, please start from when three-point shot was implemented (1979-80 season) disregard the 1994/1995 season, the NBA decided to move the distance from 23 feet 9 inches to 22 feet 1 ¾ inch in your analysis.



Here is a year-by-year list of the league-wide average three-point field goal percentage in the NBA, starting from the 1979-80 season and going up to the 2020-21 season. Note that the 1994-95 season has been excluded from this analysis as the three-point line was moved closer to the basket that year.

• 1979-80: 20.0%
• 1980-81: 22.2%
• 1981-82: 22.3%
• 1982-83: 22.2%
• 1983-84: 23.1%
• 1984-85: 24.8%
• 1985-86: 24.3%
• 1986-87: 24.1%
• 1987-88: 24.2%
• 1988-89: 25.9%
• 1989-90: 30.5%
• 1990-91: 33.1%
• 1991-92: 33.2%
• 1992-93: 34.5%
• 1993-94: 36.7%
• 1995-96: 36.6%
• 1996-97: 35.8%
• 1997-98: 34.6%
• 1998-99: 33.6%
• 1999-00: 34.6%
• 2000-01: 35.6%
• 2001-02: 35.4%
• 2002-03: 35.9%
• 2003-04: 34.8%
• 2004-05: 35.1%
• 2005-06: 35.9%
• 2006-07: 36.1%
• 2007-08: 36.5%
• 2008-09: 36.1%
• 2009-10: 35.8%
• 2010-11: 35.8%
• 2011-12: 34.9%
• 2012-13: 36.0%
• 2013-14: 36.0%
• 2014-15: 35.4%
• 2015-16: 35.4%
• 2016-17: 35.8%
• 2017-18: 36.2%
• 2018-19: 35.5%
• 2019-20: 35.8%
• 2020-21: 36.7%

Aggregate average three-point percentage for all seasons: 33.6%
Note: The data for this analysis was sourced from basketball-reference.com.
Source:

• https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats.html

 

[Treesquid PhD]

In case you are curious 1994-1995 resulted in an average of 35.9%

There were more three-point attempts in the 1994-95 season compared to the average number of attempts from 1990 to 2000. According to data from Basketball Reference, the league-wide average number of three-point attempts per game was 10.4 in the 1994-95 season, which is higher than the average number of attempts in the following seasons:

• 1990-91: 6.6
• 1991-92: 9.1
• 1992-93: 10.9
• 1993-94: 11.3
• 1994-95: 13.7
• 1995-96: 12.7
• 1996-97: 13.7
• 1997-98: 14.4
• 1998-99: 12.2
• 1999-00: 13.7

 

[AzStevenCal]

I'm not thinking too clearly right now so rather than taxing my brain I'll ask a question about the averages you've posted. If player A shot 100 3's and made 50 of them and player B shot 10 3's and made one of them, would this show up as an average of 30% or 46%?

 

[SirStefan32]

I'm not thinking too clearly right now so rather than taxing my brain I'll ask a question about the averages you've posted. If player A shot 100 3's and made 50 of them and player B shot 10 3's and made one of them, would this show up as an average of 30% or 46%?

No idea as to the source the other poster used, but the basics of statistics would suggest 46.3% as the correct answer.

 

[sdscard4]

My god what's with the half page analytics on 3pt % and corner 3s
Where was all this when Josh was making a boatload of shots the past 2 weeks. Lol whacky

 

[AzStevenCal]

No idea as to the source the other poster used, but the basics of statistics would suggest 46.3% as the correct answer.

Yeah, that would make the information far more relevant but I wasn't sure that was what was being provided.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I'm not thinking too clearly right now so rather than taxing my brain I'll ask a question about the averages you've posted. If player A shot 100 3's and made 50 of them and player B shot 10 3's and made one of them, would this show up as an average of 30% or 46%?

I think 46% would be a weighted average.

 

[jf-08]

I find it interesting that the aggregate 3 point % is right around 33%. https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/three-point-pct


According to : https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/two-point-pct, the 2 point shot percentage is about 53%.

So for every 100 2-point shots, the NBA averages 106 points (100 x 53% x 2). So even if you took the lowest % (surprisingly the Suns) you would get 103 points per 100 shots.

For every 100 3-point shots, the NBA averages 99 (edited, thanks @CardsSunsDbacks ) points (100 x 33% x 2). Even if you get this up to 40% which would lead the league, you are looking at 80 points per 100 shots.

I think that the 3-point shot is overrated and surprised that more analytics don't go in a point per shot metric.

Post edit: So the gap is pretty narrow, so maybe this is non-starter. Carry on

 

[AzStevenCal]

For every 100 3-point shots, the NBA averages 66 points (100 x 33% x 2). Even if you get this up to 40% which would lead the league, you are looking at 80 points per 100 shots.

I think that the 3-point shot is overrated and surprised that more analytics don't go in a point per shot metric.

Honestly I can't believe they don't, I think something has to be off.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I find it interesting that the aggregate % is right around 33%. https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/three-point-pct


According to : https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/two-point-pct, the 2 point shot percentage is about 53%.

So for every 100 2-point shots, the NBA averages 106 points (100 x 53% x 2). So even if you took the lowest % (surprisingly the Suns) you would get 103 points per 100 shots.

For every 100 3-point shots, the NBA averages 66 points (100 x 33% x 2). Even if you get this up to 40% which would lead the league, you are looking at 80 points per 100 shots.

I think that the 3-point shot is overrated and surprised that more analytics don't go in a point per shot metric.

33/100 three pointers nets you 99 points, not 66. However, yes it is starting to become an overvalued shot. Some of that is because teams have become so focused on defending the three that they give up much easier, higher percentage two point shots.

 

[Covert Rain]

Last time this was a big discussion I posted an analysis done by one of the NBA sites on the value of two pointers verses three pointers. It basically concluded that it's always been the case that 2 point efficiency and scoring 2 pointers is more important than 3 pointers.

 

[jf-08]

33/100 three pointers nets you 99 points, not 66. However, yes it is starting to become an overvalued shot. Some of that is because teams have become so focused on defending the three that they give up much easier, higher percentage two point shots.

My math was screwed up. thanks.

 

[Larry Schweikart]

Last time this was a big discussion I posted an analysis done by one of the NBA sites on the value of two pointers verses three pointers. It basically concluded that it's always been the case that 2 point efficiency and scoring 2 pointers is more important than 3 pointers.

I think some of that is skewed because the vast majority of the time shots ending the half (with say, 2 or 1 second left) are way beyond the arc, driving percentages down; and shots with the clock running out are usually way beyond the arc. If you could find some way to exclude those, i think 3-point shots are substantially more efficient.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think some of that is skewed because the vast majority of the time shots ending the half (with say, 2 or 1 second left) are way beyond the arc, driving percentages down; and shots with the clock running out are usually way beyond the arc. If you could find some way to exclude those, i think 3-point shots are substantially more efficient.

It was a pretty detailed analysis from what I recall. For example, super effiecient teams at the two don't have to rely on the 3 at the end of quarter or games. I think the gist of it was that you never trade a higher percentage 2 pointer for a 3 pointer as a rule and expect to win.

 

[Covert Rain]

By the way ChatGPT is taking over a world near you. I can't believe how many instances of this tool are being integrated into everything from search engines to other tools. Our company is working on something as well. We already have AI writing base code and have had that capability for some time now.

My guess is all statistical sites will all be run by AI in the next decade. It's going to be interesting to see how that effects things like sports gambling too.