It isn't about Kyler playing badly. It is about Kyler not playing great. If the Cardinals wind up with the 4th and 10th picks in the draft, and Kyler plays ok, I think they stick with him. What I don't believe is that Kyler will play well enough to cause Monti and Bidwill to pass on a QB if they end up picking #1. It is similar to Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning. The Colts took Luck because they had the #1 pick and Luck was such a highly rated prospect. It was less about Manning not being good anymore or coming back from an injury.
And, just so you have your info right, Kyler would only cost the team trading for him over 40 mil two of the five seasons left on his contract. He actually becomes a bargain for the team trading for him.