Joe Mama, riddle me this...

[playstation]

I've been reading this board for a while now (very engaging conversations by the way), and I've noticed you to be someone who thinks it would be nice to have Kobe Bryant, but not very realistic at all. I've had this discussion with my friends numerous times, and we always come back to the same question:

If Kobe didn't want to leave, why opt out? i mean, he's going through a rape trial right now. It may even be in his best interests to wait out 1 year (when his contract actually expires), and then go to free agency, or sign an extension with the lakers right now. If he is convicted of a crime, his contract is void anyways, so he can't be trying to secure his future, so why is he opting out???

In fact, he goes out of his way to be ambiguous:

Media: Kobe, are you still planning on opting out?
Kobe: Man, you know me, I'm a Laker for life.
Media: Yeah, but are you opting out?
Kobe: Yes

What is that about?

FYI, the only answer my friends and I can come up with is his uncertainty about the outcome of labor negotiations next year, and since he doesn't want to take a chance, he'll get his new contract 1 year early. but in that case why not just sign an extension right now?

So thats my rant, tell me what you think...

 

[ehale911]

I've been reading this board for a while now (very engaging conversations by the way), and I've noticed you to be someone who thinks it would be nice to have Kobe Bryant, but not very realistic at all. I've had this discussion with my friends numerous times, and we always come back to the same question:

If Kobe didn't want to leave, why opt out? i mean, he's going through a rape trial right now. It may even be in his best interests to wait out 1 year (when his contract actually expires), and then go to free agency, or sign an extension with the lakers right now. If he is convicted of a crime, his contract is void anyways, so he can't be trying to secure his future, so why is he opting out???

In fact, he goes out of his way to be ambiguous:

Media: Kobe, are you still planning on opting out?
Kobe: Man, you know me, I'm a Laker for life.
Media: Yeah, but are you opting out?
Kobe: Yes

What is that about?

FYI, the only answer my friends and I can come up with is his uncertainty about the outcome of labor negotiations next year, and since he doesn't want to take a chance, he'll get his new contract 1 year early. but in that case why not just sign an extension right now?

So thats my rant, tell me what you think...

Besides the trial and new CBA, what about injury. He's better off cashing now. What if next season he suffers a career ending injury or something. He'd lose a ton of money. He'd be better off opting out now and re-signing.

 

[playstation]

No, as i mentioned, in that case you simply sign an extension. if you want to stay, you dont' need to 'test you options' in free agency.

Kobe is no fool, he knows his options will be max contract offers, and he knows the lakers can offer even more than that. so once again, why the opt out?

 

[ehale911]

it would also allow him to make more money next season.

 

[slinslin]

Besides the trial and new CBA, what about injury. He's better off cashing now. What if next season he suffers a career ending injury or something. He'd lose a ton of money. He'd be better off opting out now and re-signing.

So why is he refusing an extension? It would be the same deal he can sign in the offseason just a year shorter.

Afterall he could still injure himself this season and not a get a new contract at all.

 

[playstation]

opting out means you only get a 5% raise next season, signing an extension keeps the 12.5% raise going, so he even loses out on getting more money. I can't for the life of me find out why he is doing this if he is planning on sticking around...

you guys tell me, am i making a cogent arguement here?

 

[fordronken]

I don't know the details, but I've heard it from Jerry West(whose knowledge of such things I put above the people here) that Kobe Bryant is able to make more money by opting out. That, by itself, should be enough to close this argument. However, in addition to that, it is in my opinion that even if he wanted, ultimately, to stay as a Laker, there is something very nice about being courted. He may just want to experience that.

 

[George O'Brien]

opting out means you only get a 5% raise next season, signing an extension keeps the 12.5% raise going, so he even loses out on getting more money. I can't for the life of me find out why he is doing this if he is planning on sticking around...

you guys tell me, am i making a cogent arguement here?

If he re-signs with the Lakers, the opt out will not be about money. It will be about power. Right now it is Shaq's team and Phil Jackson refuses to modify the team's offense to feature Kobe rather than Shaq. Many people compare Kobe to Michael Jordan and Jordan did not spend his time trying to pound the ball into the low post.

There is always the potential that Kobe and Amare might end up clashing, but Shaq was a superstar before Kobe can into the league. He and Penny took the Magic to the finals one year against Houston. Shaq thinks he can score anytime he gets the ball in the low block - and he is not far from wrong. But that makes Kobe into Shaq's spear carrier.

If Kobe goes back to the Lakers, it will be on his terms. That is worth more to him than money at this point.

 

[playstation]

fordronken,
if you can find the West article, could you post it here? i've read the online interpretations of the CBA, and disagree based on that information. Also, circumstatial evidence tells me if that were the case, people would be opting out of contracts left and right in order to get more money...

with regards to the 'hot single woman in a bar' theory, you're telling me he's voluntarily becoming a free agent simply to hear everyone tell him how great he is? i guess it is possible, since I don't know what's in his mind, but if thats the best reason you can come up with, I would have to go with other side of the argument, which states Kobe is fed up with Shaq/Phil, and is itching to leave the triangle offense, which to me is more plausible than your theory.

 

[playstation]

George,
you're telling me that by opting out and then resigning with the Lakers, Phil Jackson will all of a sudden decide to run the offense through him? whatever he does, and whatever promises Jerry Buss makes, doesn't change the fact that shaq is the more lethal weapon. The power you are referring to will never be in his grasp as long as he plays on the same team as one of the greatest centers of all time, and no opt out will change that.

 

[Chaplin]

This is a tough arguement for either side to "win", because both scenarios are possible.

 

[playstation]

chaplin,
my question is not 'will he stay or leave the lakers?', it is 'if he plans on staying with the lakers, then why is he opting out?'

the inference being that I fully expect Kobe to sign with another team in the off-season, and then (my personal biases included) Suns have the second best chance to sign him (2nd to the clips because he gets to stay at home)

 

[Chaplin]

chaplin,
my question is not 'will he stay or leave the lakers?', it is 'if he plans on staying with the lakers, then why is he opting out?'

the inference being that I fully expect Kobe to sign with another team in the off-season, and then (my personal biases included) Suns have the second best chance to sign him (2nd to the clips because he gets to stay at home)

From what I understand, I think the Lakers can offer an extra year than if he signed the extension. But then again, that extra year could just be next season. I'm unclear about it myself.

 

[Joe Mama]

opting out means you only get a 5% raise next season, signing an extension keeps the 12.5% raise going, so he even loses out on getting more money. I can't for the life of me find out why he is doing this if he is planning on sticking around...

you guys tell me, am i making a cogent arguement here?

first of all, I'm not sure why you picked me out of the crowd. There are other people who are saying with much more surety that Kobe Bryant is not going to sign with the Phoenix Suns. I do think it's unlikely though, and here's why...

1. I'm not even sure he is the Phoenix Suns target. I'm pretty sure they would like to sign him, but we don't really know. If it weren't for the rape trial I would never even bring up this possibility. That's a pretty big thing though. It's not just the possibility that he is found guilty. I have a hard time believing that even if/when he's found innocent sponsors will want to attach their name to him.

2. I'm not sure he wants to leave the Lakers. Even the most optimistic non-Lakers you think the chances are 50-50 he wants to leave. Personally I think the odds are much less.

3. Even if he does want to leave the Lakers what are the chances that he wants to come to the Phoenix Suns? There are other teams he could sign with. Gambo is the only person that has said that Phoenix would even be the leading option if he does want to leave the Lakers.

4. Can the Phoenix Suns clear enough salary to give him a maximum contract? It sounds easy enough, but I think it's going to take at least the #7 draft pick to get Charlotte to take White in the expansion draft. It shouldn't, but I didn't think the Suns would get raped like they did in the Tom Gugliotta deal either.

I am not a salary cap expert, so someone correct me if I'm wrong on any of this. An extension would give Kobe Bryant more money per season, but he would not be able to sign for as many seasons. I don't think waiting until his current contract is done to do something is a smart option because of the risk of injury. Now you're going to say, "well, if he's worried about injuries why doesn't he sign an extension right now?" It's obviously because he doesn't want to lock himself in with the Lakers. That doesn't mean he absolutely wants to leave them. It just means he wants the option.

Opting out of his contract this summer is the smart thing to do. If you send the opportunity to shot himself around and check out other possibilities. It gives him the opportunity for the biggest overall deal if he stayed with the Lakers.

I never said the Phoenix Suns signing Kobe Bryant was an impossibility. I just think it's not likely. It's not just the odds of Kobe Bryant leaving the Lakers that we should be looking at. It's the odds of all these other things happening as well.

Joe Mama

 

[Chaplin]

1. I'm not even sure he is the Phoenix Suns target. I'm pretty sure they would like to sign him, but we don't really know. If it weren't for the rape trial I would never even bring up this possibility. That's a pretty big thing though. It's not just the possibility that he is found guilty. I have a hard time believing that even if/when he's found innocent sponsors will want to attach their name to him.

Joe Mama

You have some good points, but come on. Do you honestly believe we're not going after Kobe Bryant?? Jerry has been on record as saying that he coveted Kobe Bryant when he was drafted and tried like crazy to trade for him at the draft. Jerry has publicly gushed over only two players in the last 10 years--Amare Stoudemire and Kobe Bryant. We got one, do you actually think he won't try to get the other??

 

[slinslin]

Stars that want to stay sign extensions however.

Marbury, Iverson... they signed extension because they wanted to stay.
TMac would sign an extension if he feels the team is heading in the right direction.

 

[ehale911]

Stars that want to stay sign extensions however.

Marbury, Iverson... they signed extension because they wanted to stay.
TMac would sign an extension if he feels the team is heading in the right direction.

TMac is actually under contract until 2007. He has an opt out in 2005. I don't think any player actually signs an extension this early.

 

[playstation]

The reason i singled you out is because I've seen you to make the best case for your opinions in the past. Always good to hear a convincing argument from the other side.

Actually, if you sign an extension or opt out, the length of the deal remains the same.

Regarding wanting 'options', as i mentioned, hes not stupid. he knows people are ready to throw max contracts at him, and he knows the lakers are ready to do so as well. so why play games?

I agree that when he does leave, its a crapshoot, but as far as actually leaving is concerned, I wonder why the charade if hes not going to go, and I still haven't heard anything concrete other than wanting 'options' or wanting people to tell him how good he is.

 

[Joe Mama]

The reason i singled you out is because I've seen you to make the best case for your opinions in the past. Always good to hear a convincing argument from the other side.

Actually, if you sign an extension or opt out, the length of the deal remains the same.

Regarding wanting 'options', as i mentioned, hes not stupid. he knows people are ready to throw max contracts at him, and he knows the lakers are ready to do so as well. so why play games?

I agree that when he does leave, its a crapshoot, but as far as actually leaving is concerned, I wonder why the charade if hes not going to go, and I still haven't heard anything concrete other than wanting 'options' or wanting people to tell him how good he is.

Thank you. As I said in my previous post, it's not the possibility of him leading the Lakers that I find unlikely. It's the possibility that everything is going to happen to land him in a Phoenix Suns uniform that I think is unlikely.

Joe

 

[playstation]

so you agree that given his decision to opt out, it is very likely he will leave (to whatever team)?

 

[Chaplin]

Thank you. As I said in my previous post, it's not the possibility of him leading the Lakers that I find unlikely. It's the possibility that everything is going to happen to land him in a Phoenix Suns uniform that I think is unlikely.

Joe

Ok, then what do you think is "likely"? The Clippers? The Jazz? The Nuggets? You have mentioned that you think this is all unlikely, which is a valid opinion (and perhaps correct), but what other option--let's say, outside of resigning with the Lakers--is more likely?

Each one of those teams have the same sort of barriers that we have, albeit a little different specifically.

 

[playstation]

assuming my logic is correct, and he does want to leave, then the following things must happen for him to come here:

1 - Jerry's gotta want him
2 - We gotta unload either Jahidi or Eisley, most likely with use of our #7 pick
3 - Kobe's gotta want to come here

Regarding 1, Jerry (and D'Antoni) has referred to kobe in his 'talk to the owner' segments on suns.com He keeps on saying he doesn't want to get in trouble, but how many scoring 2-guards with defensive capabilities and strength in the clutch are out there?

Regarding 2, From Charlottes point of view, if you take Jahidi (5.8M), the #7 pick, and 3M from the Suns, you are essentially paying 2.8M (that doesn't go to the salary cap) for the #7 pick in the draft.

Regarding 3, I don't know. I've heard reports, but that means nothing. The few positives are that it doesn't contain an owner whose main goal is profits at the expense of wins (unlike Donald Sterling/Clippers), he can lead the team (unlike San Antonio), its not the site of his rape trial (unlike Denver), phoenix can sign him outright (unlike Memphis, New York), and its close enough to LA that his wife can still get helicoptered to Beverly Hills whenever she pleases!

Being a logical person, and assuming the suns braintrust are the same, I believe the suns would not submit to #2 without assurances that #3 is a true statement. That tells me that if you see the Suns unload Jahidi/Eisley and their pick prior to the expansion draft, Kobe is coming.

Hows that for a well thought out argument

 

[KloD]

Correct me if I'm wrong (I know you will ), but could the threat of Kobe opting out be nothing more than to gain the upper hand on the Lakers to trade him to the team of his choice? If you don't trade me, you lose me and get nothing kinda thing. That is what I have thought his intentions were.

 

[playstation]

AHA! now there's something interesting. I know earlier this season Jerry Buss was interviewed and he said that he was GOING to re-sign Kobe. Jim Grey asked him what about a worst case scenario of a sign-and-trade. Jerry's response was no chance of a sign and trade, because no chance of him leaving...

So now all of a sudden, Kobe could say, I want Memphis, you trade me... or... what? What is his option? I understand how it can be used as leverage, but at the same time, his leverage would be cracked out. If I were Jerry Buss, and Kobe told me 'trade me to Memphis, or I go to Phoenix', i'd be like 'have fun in phoenix', because I would have a hard time believing he'd go to phoenix just to show me up for not trading him to memphis. regardless, thats a very interesting point you brought up!

 

[KloD]

AHA! now there's something interesting. I know earlier this season Jerry Buss was interviewed and he said that he was GOING to re-sign Kobe. Jim Grey asked him what about a worst case scenario of a sign-and-trade. Jerry's response was no chance of a sign and trade, because no chance of him leaving...

So now all of a sudden, Kobe could say, I want Memphis, you trade me... or... what? What is his option? I understand how it can be used as leverage, but at the same time, his leverage would be cracked out. If I were Jerry Buss, and Kobe told me 'trade me to Memphis, or I go to Phoenix', i'd be like 'have fun in phoenix', because I would have a hard time believing he'd go to phoenix just to show me up for not trading him to memphis. regardless, thats a very interesting point you brought up!

Kobe is in a rare situation so we can't look at like he is "any" player opting out. If he wants to play for Memphis and the threat is trade me or I go elsewhere...I doubt the Lakers would say fine, just so he doesn't get his first choice. They will want something in return and that has more drive than revenge. At least I think it should...