John Wall's injuries

[elindholm]

Since we'll be talking about Wall at least through the middle of December, I figured this deserved its own thread.

The narrative that Wall is injury-prone is persistent. In fact he has had only two significant injuries in his career. The first was a "non-traumatic stress injury" of the knee early in the 2012-13 season, which caused him to miss 33 games. The second was a more extensive knee procedure that cause him to miss the majority of last season.

What's striking to me, though, is how other minor injuries are getting exaggerated into some sort of trend. The article below, which is from some Wizards-focused site, says that Wall has had nine "major injuries." But of those "major injuries," most resulted in his missing only a few games, and two required him to miss no time at all. Here's an example:

"Dec. 6, 2015 – Banged his right knee in a game against the Dallas Mavericks. X-rays were negative, but Wall revealed that he was dealing with a bruise on the same knee prior to the injury. Did not miss any direct time."

That's a "major injury"? Really?

I'm more interested in why the fan base has turned on him than I am concerned about his injury history. Through the first eight years of his career, he's missed about 80 total games, somewhere in the 12-13% range. How many explosive backcourt stars have been much healthier than that?

 

[SirStefan32]

Interesting. I was certain he had three major injuries on that knee. Thanks for gathering some facts for us here, as well as your outstanding analysis of salary implication to this team should Wall end of on the roster in one of the other threads.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I am glad for this thread. Getting the facts straight on this is really interesting to me.

Ouchie posted this in the PG thread. I think it is worthy of being here.

I have three very close friends who all grew up in, and still live in DC. They are total sports nuts and follow their DC teams closely and travel to games, etc. All of them are really negative on Wall. Here’s one guys’ comments (the most basketball knowledgeable of all three):

“I think his injuries are a concern, but not nearly as much as his general negativism. His defense has always been poor. On the whole it is just masked by spectacular blocks (usually the result of lazy D to begin with) and steals. His knees would be helped if the fat Bastard laid off the henessy and cokes and he got in the gym and ran some down and backs. But, who knows, he probably just needs a change of scenery

Part of what made Steve Nash a great pg was that he was not only talented, he was genuinely a good guy who made the chemistry of the entire team better. That part of a player's contribution cannot be ignored.

 

[Hoop Head]

So Wall is basically Eric Bledsoe? Bledsoe had a fragile label but he didn't seem to play like a broken down player or suffer from injuries as often as you would think. He did miss a lot of games with the Suns but only 2 seasons were because of injuries, the rest were tanking. If someone outside of Phoenix looked at Bledsoe they may say he was injury prone by looking at his stats but those who follow the Suns knew more about why he missed games when he did.

Were Wall's injuries to the same knee? If so, that's more of a problem than if he had a smaller surgery on his left and a more serious surgery on his right, for example.

It does seem a little odd that all of Rich Paul's clients end up being cancers to a certain degree. Bledsoe, Wall, JR Smith, Tristan Thompson, and even Lebron. He also reps Wall, who is on the outs with the Wizards for reasons that aren't entirely clear. I know I read Wall was the main player that recruited Dwight Howard to Washington this offseason, which isn't troubling but a little questionable, I think, since they already had a starting Center in Gortat who was getting paid well and seemed to work within their style.

 

[SirStefan32]

https://www.arizonasportsfans.com/forum/posts/3825523/

Eric's analysis of the salary implications should Wall end up in Phoenix:

The salary cap is $102 million this season, and it usually goes up at least 5% from one year to the next. So call it $107 million in 2019-20. Wall will be at $38 million, so that's 36%. Wall's salary goes up in the remaining years of his contract, but so will the cap. 40% is an exaggeration.

The status of Wall's trade kicker is unclear. There's a brief article by Zach Lowe, which has been quoted by everyone, in which he says that a trade kicker cannot bring the player above his maximum salary (which is true), that there are funny considerations that would come into play if Wall is traded this season, before the maximum extension takes effect (which is probably also true), and that "sources say" that the Wizards could somehow end up owing Wall a whole bunch of extra money if he's traded now (for which he provides zero evidence and which is probably nonsense).

So let's assume that Wall is already maxed out for 2019-23 and that the kicker would not inflate any of those numbers.

The salary should not be a deal breaker. The Suns have been at or below the cap line for so long that some of us may forget that being over the cap used to be routine. The Suns aren't likely to be players for star free agents anyway (you can forget about Durant), so the only ways to get top talent are through the draft and by trade. If it's by trade, that means a huge salary. The Suns would still have their exceptions to play with.

If Ayton and Bridges are part of the core, their extensions will start in 2022-23, the last year of Wall's deal. That year could be ugly. It's also very far in the future. A new CBA could create ways to lessen the hit of expiring mega-salaries -- it's not like the Suns would be the only team in that position.

Before 2022-23, the Suns' salary situation would be fine. Anderson gets dumped, so the big salaries on the roster for next season would be

Wall 38.2
Booker 27.3
Warren 10.8
Ayton 9.6
Jackson 7.1
Bridges 4.2

which comes out to a bit over $97 million, still under the cap and with plenty of room to fill out the roster and even add an MLE player (or whatever that exception is called now).

I don't know enough about Wall to have an opinion on his attitude, and his injury history is a concern. But the Suns have preached "financial flexibility" since the end of the Nash era, and they have not once used that flexibility to make the team better. Instead we get self-defeating trades for competing PGs or inane signings like Ariza. Flexibility is useless if you don't seize good opportunities that present themselves.

If Wall is available for cheap, I say get him. Bender, Daniels, Canaan, Melton, MIL pick, PHO 2020 pick lottery-protected.

 

[SirStefan32]

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[NashDishesDimes]

Yeah Suns are the dumb enough franchise with a dumb enough owner to step in and trade for him. Has a massive contract for years and a 15% trade kicker. Ill pass on wreckless physical PGs that have less longevity. His numbers arent even great. Pass

 

[elindholm]

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Yeah, I think I'm back on the No side now. I could tolerate the salary and injury situations, but if his attitude has gone south, that's more worrisome, and a greater risk to sink the franchise altogether.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Yeah Suns are the dumb enough franchise with a dumb enough owner to step in and trade for him. Has a massive contract for years and a 15% trade kicker. Ill pass on wreckless physical PGs that have less longevity. His numbers arent even great. Pass

I would think the Wiz would be responsible for the trade kicker.

 

[JCSunsfan]

So Wall is basically Eric Bledsoe? Bledsoe had a fragile label but he didn't seem to play like a broken down player or suffer from injuries as often as you would think. He did miss a lot of games with the Suns but only 2 seasons were because of injuries, the rest were tanking. If someone outside of Phoenix looked at Bledsoe they may say he was injury prone by looking at his stats but those who follow the Suns knew more about why he missed games when he did.

Were Wall's injuries to the same knee? If so, that's more of a problem than if he had a smaller surgery on his left and a more serious surgery on his right, for example.

It does seem a little odd that all of Rich Paul's clients end up being cancers to a certain degree. Bledsoe, Wall, JR Smith, Tristan Thompson, and even Lebron. He also reps Wall, who is on the outs with the Wizards for reasons that aren't entirely clear. I know I read Wall was the main player that recruited Dwight Howard to Washington this offseason, which isn't troubling but a little questionable, I think, since they already had a starting Center in Gortat who was getting paid well and seemed to work within their style.

Are they attracted to Rich Paul because they are those kinds of players, or do they become disruptive players because of Rich Paul?

I keep going back and forth. I do not mind a massive contract, but you have to get something for that contract. Our pg needs to be the most selfless player on the team.

 

[Hoop Head]

I would think the Wiz would be responsible for the trade kicker.

The trade kicker is to be paid by the team trading him away, so the Wizards would be responsible for it and it would be a nice chunk of change. That's another reason I find it unlikely they let him go for pennies on the dollar. Unless Wall waives his trade kicker, and since he's not publicly requesting a trade so he has no reason to do so, the Wizards are on the hook for a large payout. Some players have waived their trade kickers in the past when they get dealt to a team of their choosing. It's sort of a way to force the teams hand and trade you to a preferred destination because getting them to waive that could save millions of dollars. I'm not sure how much Wall's would be but I believe it would be upwards of 10 million. I think the 10 million guess is really lowballing it.

Here's all the info on trade kickers in the CBA.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q99

 

[AzStevenCal]

Interesting. I was certain he had three major injuries on that knee. Thanks for gathering some facts for us here, as well as your outstanding analysis of salary implication to this team should Wall end of on the roster in one of the other threads.

As I've said before, my concern isn't the injuries he's had, it's what's ahead for him. As far as I can tell, he's had 3 knee procedures (arthroscopic debridements) plus injections to clean out both knees and to help alleviate the chronic pain. That's what I'm concerned about, not the 9 so-called major injuries or the time he has missed in the past.

 

[sunsfan88]

So Wall is basically Eric Bledsoe? Bledsoe had a fragile label but he didn't seem to play like a broken down player or suffer from injuries as often as you would think. He did miss a lot of games with the Suns but only 2 seasons were because of injuries, the rest were tanking. If someone outside of Phoenix looked at Bledsoe they may say he was injury prone by looking at his stats but those who follow the Suns knew more about why he missed games when he did.

Were Wall's injuries to the same knee? If so, that's more of a problem than if he had a smaller surgery on his left and a more serious surgery on his right, for example.

It does seem a little odd that all of Rich Paul's clients end up being cancers to a certain degree. Bledsoe, Wall, JR Smith, Tristan Thompson, and even Lebron. He also reps Wall, who is on the outs with the Wizards for reasons that aren't entirely clear. I know I read Wall was the main player that recruited Dwight Howard to Washington this offseason, which isn't troubling but a little questionable, I think, since they already had a starting Center in Gortat who was getting paid well and seemed to work within their style.

Why is Tristian Thompson a cancer to his team? He’s overpaid sure but he’s actually played better this season without LeBron than I thought he would.

And Ben Simmons isn’t a cancer either.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Why is Tristian Thompson a cancer to his team? He’s overpaid sure but he’s actually played better this season without LeBron than I thought he would.

And Ben Simmons isn’t a cancer either.

Because he is a Klutch client and everything associated with Klutch is evil.

 

[Hoop Head]

Why is Tristian Thompson a cancer to his team? He’s overpaid sure but he’s actually played better this season without LeBron than I thought he would.

And Ben Simmons isn’t a cancer either.

I didn't know Ben Simmons was repped by Paul but Tristan Thompson had his infamous playoff collapse against the Warriors where Steph Curry outrebounded him shortly after news came out of him cheating on his pregnant wife, who is one of the Kardashians. It brought a lot of drama to the Cavs at that time and while it may not be similar to being a cancer on the floor, he was not effective on the floor and brought a level of scrutiny to that team that helped distract him and others, costing them a title.

 

[AZCrazy]

Pg needs to be the most selfless player on the team.

Ain't that the quote of the day. Find that rarity and you'll have something big.