Josh Rosen put in worst situation of any rookie QB in history

[Chris_Sanders]

Here is the meat of the difference in QBase

Murray:

Despite the lack of experience, and the small penalty for playing in good situations, both Haskins and Murray had outstanding production, which puts them among the top QBASE projections ever for players with less than three years of starting experience. Haskins ranked fourth in FBS in all three of the stats that QBASE uses to measure production. Murray was even better; he broke Baker Mayfield's record with 13.0 adjusted passing yards per attempt.

One other issue that's important for discussing Murray, although not Haskins: QBASE only gives a projection for passing performance in the NFL, not a projection for rushing value. That's going to be a big additional part of what Murray brings to an NFL offense.

 

[CardsFan88]

The reason I am using QBase is because it tries to account for all the risks that the Anti Murray crowd wants to address.

Obviously the largest issue with QBase is only passing. It has nothing to do with the ability to run.

Now on to why it matters between Rosen and Murray.

Rosen had everything that QBase loves for except accuracy. 3 year starter. Average schedule. No real talent around him. 623

Murray has the stuff QBase hates. 1 year starter. Good talent around him. Decent schedule. 595

What would be interesting is to see what the numbers would say if you switch those things and compare to the original of each.

Put Rosen with 1 year, and the same Murray talent and schedule number, then put Murray with Rosen's 3 year starter, schedule and talent numbers.

How much Murray's goes up and how much Rosen's go down. Then compare to the original numbers they gave.

None of this means anything, but it would still be interesting to see what their scores were when judged in the other's shoes.

 

[kerouac9]

What would be interesting is to see what the numbers would say if you switch those things and compare to the original of each.

Put Rosen with 1 year, and the same Murray talent and schedule number, then put Murray with Rosen's 3 year starter, schedule and talent numbers.

How much Murray's goes up and how much Rosen's go down. Then compare to the original numbers they gave.

None of this means anything, but it would still be interesting to see what their scores were when judged in the other's shoes.

I don't understand what you're saying here. Are you saying that if Murray had three years of impeccable production he's be more highly rated in a system that prizes experience?

That's not much of an incisive insight.

 

[kerouac9]

The reason I am using QBase is because it tries to account for all the risks that the Anti Murray crowd wants to address.

Obviously the largest issue with QBase is only passing. It has nothing to do with the ability to run.

Now on to why it matters between Rosen and Murray.

Rosen had everything that QBase loves for except accuracy. 3 year starter. Average schedule. No real talent around him. 623

Murray has the stuff QBase hates. 1 year starter. Good talent around him. Decent schedule. 595

This is misrepresenting what FO said. Rosen's QBASE was below Lamar Jackson and less than half of Baker Mayfield's.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

Josh Rosen is a very typical first-round quarterback prospect. That's not meant to be a negative statement. The average QBASE for first-round picks since 1997 is 620; Rosen is at 623. The average first-round quarterback has 2.7 years of starting experience; Rosen has three. Rosen's APYA (adjusted passing yards per attempt) of 8.5 and completion rate of 62.6 percent are a little below average for a first-round quarterback prospect, but not by much. (The averages are 9.0 and 64.0, respectively.)

Rosen played a slightly harder than average schedule, but also gets docked by QBASE because he had a lot of high-rated talent around him at UCLA. Offensive tackle Kolton Miller and tight end Caleb Wilson are likely to be first-round picks (Miller this year, Wilson in 2019). Center Scott Quessenberry and wide receiver Jordan Lasley are also likely to be drafted this year.

 

[BirdDroppings]

His height is not, which is why I say he is more likely to bust than hit. I have never discounted the arguments about his height because they are completely valid.

I think that's true of Murray if we put him on our roster as currently constructed. I don't buy Kingsbury turning this offense around until we actually get some more talent. I don't think our OL is any better than it was before training camp last year when everyone was healthy. I don't think our WR core is any better. I think we got better at starting TE and our play calling should be much better but otherwise our O still sucks in my mind. This is exactly why I don't want Murray. I'd rather Josh fail and us build our talent base then Murray fail and us not build our talent base.

 

[MrYeahBut]

The argument that Rosen was on a bad team is valid, at least from where I sit. Worst Cardinals team ever. My eyes have not stopped bleeding and it's almost time for OTAs.

 

[POISON]

More nonsense from the murray cultists.
Just say no to FRODO for QB

Ok

More nonsense from the murray cultists.
Just say no to FRODO for QB

Ok Gollum lol. Your short jabs are as lame as hell. Try something else, you and your pals have wore that out.

 

[MrYeahBut]

What these QB discussions need is input from @moklerman .. lol. Where's he been?

 

[AZCB34]

.
But Chris can one not compare Goff with what Rosen went through? First year totally sucked and branded bust. Second year lead the team to a playoff game and in year 3 to the super bowl. Why is it totally out of the realm of possibility than in Rosen’s second year with a new coach and system along with surrounding him with 2 or 3 playmakers that he could enjoy similar results?

I really dislike the "what about Goff" defense. There is no indication Rosen will even come close to what Goff showed in year 2. I am uneasy with Murray but I am equally uneasy with Rosen. Krang said it best...he didn't have a single good game all year and even with a poor team around him he couldn't muster a single standout effort.

 

[CardsFan88]

I don't understand what you're saying here. Are you saying that if Murray had three years of impeccable production he's be more highly rated in a system that prizes experience?

That's not much of an incisive insight.

The metric has holes in it. It would be interesting to isolate how much 3 years vs 1 year, SOS, and supporting cast elevates Rosen and knocks Murray down on it.

While these three things can indicate something, they also have little to do with the actual player. They are a derivative from the player.

Now it's not a perfect substitute, because Murray did only play 1 year, so on and so forth, but if these were equal, what would the scores indicate and vice versa.

I think that is insightful, even if it's not much. All these metrics are a grain of salt, thus I wonder what these scores would say then if those three things were switched.

What's the impact of it. Would Rosen's go down 200 points and Murray's up by 300? How much weight are these elevating or dragging down the scores. Could a plus 50 or whatever turn into a -300? I think knowing that difference is insightful.

A cleaner way might be just to remove those variables from the metric or substitute them with 1. While this would make it useless to compare against all the other QB's score, it might showcase (without those variables) in the new universe of how those two qb's stack up against each other.

 

[unseenaz]

Josh can be good, as long as everything else around him is good.

Exactly. He’s Andy Dalton essentially.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

Exactly. He’s Andy Dalton essentially.

That's why you roll the dice with Murray

 

[Solar7]

That's why you roll the dice with Murray

Yeah, because god forbid you spend 7-8 years in the playoff conversation in the hardest division in football...

Edit: I'll have 7-8 years of playoff football over becoming the Browns and constantly filtering through guys and never having a hope at the beginning of the year.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

.
But Chris can one not compare Goff with what Rosen went through? First year totally sucked and branded bust. Second year lead the team to a playoff game and in year 3 to the super bowl. Why is it totally out of the realm of possibility than in Rosen’s second year with a new coach and system along with surrounding him with 2 or 3 playmakers that he could enjoy similar results?

Different system for sure, the MM playbook sucked & we didn't have enough good WR's that could get open.

 

[WildBB]

David Carr had it way worse than Rosen his rookie year and that is just off the top of my head.

76 sacks compared to 45.

His top receivers were Cory Bradford and Jabar Gafney

Their defense was worse and of course it was because it was an expansion team roster.

It's just recency bias to say that no one has ever had to deal with what Rosen had to deal with.

Carr: QB Rating 62.8 TD 9 INT 15 2424 yards 52.5% completion
Rosen QB Rating 66.7 TD 11 INT 14 2278 yards 55.2% completion

So hey Rosen was marginally better in much better circumstances

So he was on the 2nd worst for a rookie QB led team since Oakland. We don't count Clevland in 2017, they had no QB that counted - wasn't an NFL team.

 

[TheCardFan]

One of the most compelling issues against sticking with Rosen is that he didn't really even have one good game all year. Even Blaine Gabbert posted an above 90 passer rating in his time with the Cardinals.

I respectfully disagree. I am not saying that Rosen didn't screw up but what rookie QB doesn't?

I have already posted in another thread that vs Seattle (1st start):

Stats don't tell the whole story.

15-27 180 yards 1 TD/0 int. 2 rushes for 13

He had 6 dropped passes (3 from Fitz in one game).
He had to throw 3 passes away. 2 were to avoid sacks.
1 of those incompletion's was to Chad Johnson for a TD that was called back (didn't get both feet in)

He could have easily been 25-27 for for close to 300 yards and 2 TD's. I would call that a good game.

Vs Rams week 16

Stats

12-23 87 yards 0TD/0INT. 4 rushes for 49 yards (6 sacks)

We couldn't run the ball (Josh was the leading rusher)...they just sat back and didn't allow any deep throws with tons of pressure.

I watched into the 4th QTR.

Rosen was 12/20 with 1 tipped ball (under duress), 2 incomplete bombs thrown down 31-9, and 3 drops.
Adjusted accuracy - 15/20 with 2 desperation bombs (could have been 17/20)

1st drive

• 4-4 passing
• Oline held on very 1st play making it 1st and 20
• Donald sacked him in literally 2 seconds
• Rosen ran for a 1st down
• FG

2nd drive (down 7-3)

• 1-2 passing
• DJ dropped 1st down catch on 3rd down
• Punt

3rd drive (down 14-3)

• 1-2 passing with another dropped pass
• Runs for 2 1st downs
• Fitz throws TD
• Missed XP

4th drive (21-9)

• Negative running play on 1st down (RB)
• 3-5 passing (fitz dropped a pass)
• Scramble out of pressure
• Missed FG

Halftime - (down 21-9)

5th drive

• 1-2 passing (ball tipped)
• sacked

6th drive (down 24-9)

• 2 yard loss on first down (RB)
• Sack fumble turnover

7th drive (down 31-9)

• 2-4 passing (2 bombs)
• Holding penalty
• Delay of game penalty
• Sack

Again, I am just trying to be balanced here. The above is not great but think of the squad we had in week 16 vs the NFC Super Bowl team. Think about the lack of coaching, sacks, penalties, etc. I think there is a lot to work with here with Rosen and KK if they choose to stay with Rosen. If not, he is worth a #1 draft pick IMO.

The point is...show me what Rosen didn't do and why he can't be our QBOF.

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[PACardsFan]

Yeah, because god forbid you spend 7-8 years in the playoff conversation in the hardest division in football...

Edit: I'll have 7-8 years of playoff football over becoming the Browns and constantly filtering through guys and never having a hope at the beginning of the year.

When I was your age, I would also have settled for mediocrity. Now I'm almost double your age, and just being in playoff contention does nothing for me. When you give your heart and soul to a franchise for over HALF A CENTURY, you expect they will pursue the ultimate. Ownership needs to put their big boy panties on & dare to be great.

 

[PACardsFan]

I respectfully disagree. I am not saying that Rosen didn't screw up but what rookie QB doesn't?

I have already posted in another thread that vs Seattle (1st start):

Stats don't tell the whole story.

15-27 180 yards 1 TD/0 int. 2 rushes for 13

He had 6 dropped passes (3 from Fitz in one game).
He had to throw 3 passes away. 2 were to avoid sacks.
1 of those incompletion's was to Chad Johnson for a TD that was called back (didn't get both feet in)

He could have easily been 25-27 for for close to 300 yards and 2 TD's. I would call that a good game.

Vs Rams week 16

Stats

12-23 87 yards 0TD/0INT. 4 rushes for 49 yards (6 sacks)

We couldn't run the ball (Josh was the leading rusher)...they just sat back and didn't allow any deep throws with tons of pressure.

I watched into the 4th QTR.

Rosen was 12/20 with 1 tipped ball (under duress), 2 incomplete bombs thrown down 31-9, and 3 drops.
Adjusted accuracy - 15/20 with 2 desperation bombs (could have been 17/20)

1st drive

• 4-4 passing
• Oline held on very 1st play making it 1st and 20
• Donald sacked him in literally 2 seconds
• Rosen ran for a 1st down
• FG

2nd drive (down 7-3)

• 1-2 passing
• DJ dropped 1st down catch on 3rd down
• Punt

3rd drive (down 14-3)

• 1-2 passing with another dropped pass
• Runs for 2 1st downs
• Fitz throws TD
• Missed XP

4th drive (21-9)

• Negative running play on 1st down (RB)
• 3-5 passing (fitz dropped a pass)
• Scramble out of pressure
• Missed FG

Halftime - (down 21-9)

5th drive

• 1-2 passing (ball tipped)
• sacked

6th drive (down 24-9)

• 2 yard loss on first down (RB)
• Sack fumble turnover

7th drive (down 31-9)

• 2-4 passing (2 bombs)
• Holding penalty
• Delay of game penalty
• Sack

Again, I am just trying to be balanced here. The above is not great but think of the squad we had in week 16 vs the NFC Super Bowl team. Think about the lack of coaching, sacks, penalties, etc. I think there is a lot to work with here with Rosen and KK if they choose to stay with Rosen. If not, he is worth a #1 draft pick IMO.

The point is...show me what Rosen didn't do and why he can't be our QBOF.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

He could easily been 25-27 for over 300 yards? Hell, he could have been 35-37 for 450 yards. Problem is, he wasn't. The Seattle game was definitely his best game because no one had tape on him yet. The Rams took the run away & dared him to beat them with his arm. They literally sold out to stop the run, knowing that Rosen couldn't hurt them. Dude, he threw for 87 yards. Tom Tupa was able to do that.

 

[TheCardFan]

He could easily been 25-27 for over 300 yards? Hell, he could have been 35-37 for 450 yards. Problem is, he wasn't. The Seattle game was definitely his best game because no one had tape on him yet. The Rams took the run away & dared him to beat them with his arm. They literally sold out to stop the run, knowing that Rosen couldn't hurt them. Dude, he threw for 87 yards. Tom Tupa was able to do that.

Completely agree on the outcome but show me where receivers were open and he made the wrong read. Show me where Rosen didn't make a play he should have...show me how he could have overcome the horrible OL, horrible WR group, porous defense that kept him playing from behind, defend the play calling from a guy who has never called plays before, etc.

I am not saying Rosen is the next Aaron Rodgers but jeez...show me where he screwed up in this game.

 

[daves]

He had 6 dropped passes (3 from Fitz in one game).

Hmm, according to this, Fitz had two dropped passes all year.

...dbs

 

[TheCardFan]

Hmm, according to this, Fitz had two dropped passes all year.

...dbs

I guess it's another example of how stats lie.

Fitz drops 3 passes in the first half of the first Seahawks game (I included link).

9:53 in 1st QTR
14:56 in 2nd QTR
:15 in 2nd QTR (granted he was hit on this one but he had both hands on the ball)

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I guess it's another example of how stats lie.

Fitz drops 3 passes in the first half of the first Seahawks game (I included link).

9:53 in 1st QTR
14:56 in 2nd QTR
:15 in 2nd QTR (granted he was hit on this one but he had both hands on the ball)

When crediting drops, they look at the accuracy of the throw and credit accordingly.

 

[Hoodhero]

The play that sticks in my mind is Wilks & co having Rosen throw deep, down by 2 possesions on last snap of a game. I remember him getting drilled & hurting foot thinking his season is done. That's a criminal level of coaching incompetence that no QB can overcome let alone a rookie.

 

[TheCardFan]

When crediting drops, they look at the accuracy of the throw and credit accordingly.

Subjective. Not arguing with you but the bottom line is Fitz dropped them. Unusual but true.

Feel free to watch the tape and disagree.

 

[daves]

Hmm, according to this, Fitz had two dropped passes all year.

...dbs

I guess it's another example of how stats lie.

Fitz drops 3 passes in the first half of the first Seahawks game (I included link).

9:53 in 1st QTR [agreed - dbs]
14:56 in 2nd QTR [Kirk & Williams were open in the flats, but Rosen never took his eyes off Fitz, breaking across the middle, and forced a pass into double coverage. Fitz could've come down with it but the announcer said it was "broken up" and Fitz thought he was "interfered with". Some blame to go around on this one. -dbs]
:15 in 2nd QTR (granted he was hit on this one but he had both hands on the ball) [high pass hung Fitz out to dry for a big hit by Wagner. Fitz got his hands on it, but i wouldn't call it a catchable ball or a drop. -dbs]

When crediting drops, they look at the accuracy of the throw and credit accordingly.

OK, i was curious enough to go back and judge Rosen's performance for myself.

1st QTR
1-10-ARZ 18 (10:02) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass incomplete short left to D.Johnson (7 yard pass thrown well wide of DJ)
2-10-ARZ 18 (9:57) J.Rosen pass incomplete deep middle to L.Fitzgerald [B.Wagner]. (15 yard pass, should've been caught)
3-10-ARZ 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) J.Rosen sacked at ARZ 9 for -9 yards (J.Reed) (play not shown in video)

1-10-ARZ 28 (4:34) J.Rosen pass short right to C.Kirk pushed ob at ARZ 39 for 11 yards (SL.Griffin). (Nice play (!) with Rosen rolling out and hitting a wide open Kirk in stride in the flat, allowing 10 yac)
1-10-SEA 37 (2:32) J.Rosen pass incomplete deep left to C.Kirk. (29-yard pass, could've led Kirk a little deeper and hit him in stride for a TD, but definitely should've been caught. Kirk dropped it when he hit the ground.)
2-10-SEA 37 (2:26) J.Rosen pass short left to J.Nelson to SEA 33 for 4 yards (T.Flowers). (quick out to Nelson behind the LOS)
3-6-SEA 33 (1:41) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass short right to C.Kirk to SEA 26 for 7 yards (E.Thomas). (WR screen to Kirk, hit him at the LOS and he ran for the 1D, nearly fumbled)
2-11-SEA 27 8 :24) J.Rosen pass deep left to C.Williams for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [Q.Jefferson]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. J.Rosen pass incomplete deep left to C.Williams (E.Thomas) [Q.Jefferson] (nice pass under pressure - though Rosen never looked at another receiver option - and Williams was double-covered, but Rosen put it where only Williams could catch it... too bad he didn't get both feet in bounds)
3-11-SEA 27 8 :18) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass deep left to L.Fitzgerald to SEA 11 for 16 yards (T.Thompson). (nice play - Fitz looked to be his second read)

2nd QTR
1-10-SEA 11 (15:00) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass incomplete short middle to L.Fitzgerald (J.Coleman) (Kirk & Williams were open in the flats, but Rosen never took his eyes off Fitz, breaking across the middle, and forced a pass into double coverage. Fitz could've come down with it but the announcer said it was "broken up" and Fitz thought he was "interfered with". Some blame to go around on this one.)
3-3-SEA 4 (14:13) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass incomplete short right to C.Williams (Kirk was WIDE OPEN in the end zone, but Rosen threw the ball well behind a covered Williams. Ugh.)

1-15-ARZ 10 (11:23) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass short left to L.Fitzgerald to ARZ 16 for 6 yards (T.Flowers). (easy quick-hitter)

1-10-ARZ 42 (5:24) J.Rosen pass incomplete deep middle to J.Nelson. PENALTY on SEA-Q.Jefferson, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at ARZ 42 - No Play
3-5-SEA 24 (2:28) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass short left to L.Fitzgerald to SEA 18 for 6 yards (SL.Griffin) (under heavy pressure, Rosen waited for Fitz to gain a little separation, and hit him for the 1D... nice play!)
1-10-SEA 18 (2:00) J.Rosen pass incomplete deep right to C.Kirk (J.Coleman). PENALTY on SEA-J.Coleman, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at SEA 18 - No Play
1-10-50 8 :30) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass incomplete short right to D.Johnson [F.Clark]. PENALTY on SEA-F.Clark, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play
1-5-SEA 45 8 :26) (Shotgun) J.Rosen scrambles up the middle to SEA 40 for 5 yards (J.Reed). R11 Timeout #2 by ARZ at 00:18
1-10-SEA 40 8 :18) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass incomplete short middle to L.Fitzgerald (B.Wagner) (high pass hung Fitz out to dry for a big hit by Wagner. Fitz got his hands on it, but i wouldn't call it a catchable ball or a drop.)

3rd QTR
2-12-ARZ 28 (14:15) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass short left to C.Kirk to ARZ 31 for 3 yards (T.Flowers) (high pass to the flat; wasn't much running room anyway)
3-9-ARZ 31 (13:34) (Shotgun) J.Rosen scrambles up the middle to ARZ 39 for 8 yards (E.Thomas) (probably got the most he could've out of this play - Fitz might've been breaking open, but Rosen was already scrambling by then)

3-10-ARZ 25 (3:37) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass incomplete short middle to R.Seals-Jones (B.McDougald) [F.Clark] (Rosen held the ball too long, then threw way off-target to Seals-Jones; looked to have better targets with a quicker pass)

1-10-ARZ 24 8 :54) J.Rosen pass short right to D.Coleman pushed ob at ARZ 29 for 5 yards (B.Mingo) [N.Jones] (Rosen spent a long time in the pocket, didn't look as though anyone was open, so he dumped it off for a few)

4th QTR
2-11-ARZ 33 (14:22) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass incomplete short left to R.Seals-Jones. (ball was thrown late and behind Seals-Jones, but should've been caught for a short gain)
3-11-ARZ 33 (14:17) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass incomplete deep middle to L.Fitzgerald. (ball was uncatchable and into heavy coverage, but no one appeared open past the sticks)

1-10-ARZ 20 (11:38) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass deep right to R.Seals-Jones to SEA 49 for 31 yards (B.McDougald) [F.Clark] (great pass in stride and over the coverage!)
1-10-SEA 49 (10:51) (Shotgun) J.Rosen Aborted. M.Cole FUMBLES at 50, recovered by ARZ-J.Rosen at ARZ 46. J.Rosen pass incomplete short left. (Rosen rolled left, then threw it away after the shotgun snap bounced to him)
2-10-SEA 49 (10:45) J.Rosen pass short left to D.Johnson to SEA 19 for 30 yards (B.Wagner). (screen play which was actually set up very nicely, allowing Johnson a big gain)
2-13-SEA 22 (9:07) J.Rosen pass deep left to C.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-E.Thomas was injured during the play. (play action and the O-line provided time for Rosen to find Williams and make a nice throw between defenders to tie the game at 17!)

1-10-ARZ 24 (7:11) J.Rosen pass incomplete short right (broken play? Rosen rolled right and threw it away)
2-10-ARZ 24 (7:06) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass short middle to D.Johnson to ARZ 29 for 5 yards (F.Clark) (quick-hitter, thrown a little high)
3-5-ARZ 29 (6:29) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass short left to D.Johnson to ARZ 35 for 6 yards (B.Wagner). (nice quick slant for a 1D)
2-8-ARZ 37 (5:10) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass deep left to R.Seals-Jones pushed ob at SEA 42 for 21 yards (B.Wagner; B.McDougal). ARZ-R.Seals-Jones was injured during the play. (great throw into tight coverage)
2-8-SEA 40 (3:52) (Shotgun) J.Rosen pass short right to C.Kirk pushed ob at SEA 33 for 7 yards (J.Coleman) [P.Ford]. (pass was a bit high and late, but good enough)


Bottom line - yes, there were some drops, and Rosen made some very good plays. But he also threw late and off target a bunch of times, and missed open receivers, as one would expect from a rookie. He did play better than his 15-27 180 yards 1 TD/0 int stat line, but to say that "He could have easily been 25-27 for for close to 300 yards and 2 TD's" is a wild exaggeration to the plus side.

There was enough good to provide some hope for a positive future for Rosen - but i'd have a lot more hope if Rosen had built upon this performance and shown more and more in each subsequent game. He had a lot of factors working against him, but i'm concerned that i didn't see that happen.

...dbs