Jurecki reports Saints/Cards deal on the table

[red desert]

Originally posted by CardinalChris
ESPN said most teams think about 10 players in this draft even carry a FIRST ROUND GRADE. This is not a great draft to be trading down. Take Suggs and move on.

Well said. LISTEN TO THIS MAN.

 

[Houdini]

Originally posted by CardinalChris
And Chicago did it in 99 with McNown and got crap for it. I can name time after time trading down did NOT work. One amazing draft 16 years ago does not mean trading down always worked.... a lot of that was a little thing called the "west coast offense".

I agree it's a long shot, and we could both name numerous successes and failures trading in both directions. But it wasn't all the West Coast offense in those 1986 trades. The 49ers got Larry Roberts, Steve Wallace, Tom Rathman, Tim McKyer, John Taylor, Charles Haley, Kevin Fagan and Don Griffin from wheeling and dealing.

Haley and McKyer were pretty good defensive players.

The thing I read from scouts is there are about a dozen or so elite players in this draft, then the talent level drops off quick. But some of those scouts also said that in the middle to later rounds in this draft there is a lot more depth and talent for value than normal. It's not a deep draft early but it is late.
It would be a huge gamble and unlikely to happen, but what a gamble it would be if a team were to keep trading down and hit the mother load like Walsh did in 1986. The Packers of the 1990s haven't drafted worth squat for the most part in the first round. They made their hay in rounds 3 through 6. Just tossing the idea out there that teams can be built quickly in the middle to late rounds if they get a bunch of picks and hit on them. Even the 49ers a few years ago loaded up on draft choices to rebuild their defense quickly one year in the draft when they hit rock bottom. The elite is in the top 12 this year, but so many of them have to many questions for my liking.

 

[JeffGollin]

I can only go by the conventional wisdom other GMs have to say about this draft - the blue chip talent ends at about #12.

According to several of them, we'd wind up paying 1st round money for second round talent.

Once you get below #12, more of the warts and uncertainties about each player come out.

I really hope the Cards hang up the phone on NO.

 

[JeffGollin]

The one thing that I've been hearing on this board for the last several months is 'trade down and get more picks'. Well, depending on how this offer is really structured, I'd say it makes total sense.
Lars - You are missing a key point - It may make sense to trade down from #6 if you don't trade too far down.

Specifically, the Cards could trade down to #10 and definitely still get someone like Trufant, Kennedy or Kevin Williams and possibly even Suggs. If they traded to #11, the might still get one of those players (because Carolina is likely to choose Gross) but it's no longer a lock.

Once we go below #11, the talent level drops significantly and it may not make sense to give up an Urlacher for 2 Tommy Knights.

 

[Capital Card]

Originally posted by SECTION 11
I'd grab Faine and the best defensive player. I like Bailey. You just can't teach that type of athleticism.

Bailey is certainly one of the top pure athletes in this draft, but while I agree you can't teach that type of athleticism, it also doesn't look like anyone taught him football. I see Boss Bailey as Michael Stone II.

 

[Zeno]

Originally posted by KingofCards

I am a Suggian, but I would be happy if we traded down and got two. Just don't include that 2nd rounder from next year. Although S.D. is going to owe us a pick for Boston, that would replace the lost pick.

San Diego won't owe us a thing for Boston. If anything the NFL will award us a pick at the end of round 3, that all depends on how well he plays in San Diego versus how well our signees play for us...compensation is some weird weighted formula. We'll get some picks for losing Jake, Boston, Sanders and Jenkins but as of now we have no idea where they will fall in next years draft.

I say you have to seriously consider this trade but I wouldn't throw in anything additional(unless they take TJ off our hands as well).

 

[ajcardfan]

I'd bet anyone ten bucks that we don't trade down and take a center or any other offensive lineman. In fact, I think, other than kickers, offensive line is the one position we're guaranteed to not pick in RD 1 or 2.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Originally posted by cheesebeef
Geez man! Maybe he's not going that high because people who work evaluating talent for a living don't think he's as good! I mean when was the last time that the first STUD DE ever possibly could have dropped down below 5? Think about it and maybe you'll realize that your bias being an ASU student is clouding your vision a little bit.

Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 Cleveland Couch, Tim QB Kentucky
2 Philadelphia McNabb, Donovan QB Syracuse
3 Cincinnati Smith, Akili QB Oregon
4 Indianapolis James, Edgerrin RB Miami
5 New Orleans Williams, Ricky RB Texas
6 St. Louis Holt, Torry WR North Carolina State
7 Washington Bailey, Champ CB Georgia
8 Arizona Boston, David WR Ohio State
9 Detroit Claiborne, Chris MLB Southern California
10 Baltimore McAlister, Chris CB Arizona
11 Minnesota Culpepper, Daunte QB Central Florida
12 Chicago McNown, Cade QB UCLA
13 Pittsburgh Edwards, Troy WR Louisiana Tech
14 Kansas City Tait, John T Brigham Young
15 Tampa Bay McFarland, Anthony NT Louisiana State
16 Tennessee Kearse, Jevon DE Florida

Hmm....no pass rushers in the top ten....and the top pass rusher in this draft went at 16 and set the NFL rookie record for sacks!
1997
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 St. Louis Pace, Orlando T Ohio State
2 Oakland Russell, Darrell DT Southern California
3 Seattle Springs, Shawn CB Ohio State
4 Baltimore Boulware, Peter OLB Florida State
5 Detroit Westbrook, Bryant CB Texas
6 Seattle Jones, Walter T Florida State
7 N.Y. Giants Hilliard, Ike WR Florida
8 N.Y. Jets Farrior, James ILB Virginia
9 Arizona Knight, Tommy CB Iowa
10 New Orleans Naeole, Chris * Colorado
11 Atlanta Booker, Michael CB Nebraska
12 Tampa Bay Dunn, Warrick RB Florida State
13 Kansas City Gonzalez, Tony TE California
14 Cincinnati Wilson, Reinard DE Florida State

Hmm.....a tackle high....but the first pass rusher goes at 14!

1995
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 Cincinnati Carter, Ki-Jana RB Penn State
2 Jacksonville Boselli, Tony T Southern California
3 Houston McNair, Steve QB Alcorn State
4 Washington Westbrook, Michael WR Colorado
5 Carolina Collins, Kerry QB Penn State
6 St. Louis Carter, Kevin DE Florida

A defensive end (an end who has gone to the pro bowl) slides to number six....the pick we have this year.

1992
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 Indianapolis Emtman, Steve DT Washington
2 Indianapolis Coryatt, Quentin MLB Texas A&M
3 L.A. Rams Gilbert, Sean DT Pittsburgh
4 Washington Howard, Desmond WR Michigan
5 Green Bay Buckley, Terrell CB Florida State
6 Cincinnati Klingler, David QB Houston
7 Miami Vincent, Troy CB Wisconsin
8 Atlanta Whitfield, Bob T Stanford
9 Cleveland Vardell, Tommy FB Stanford
10 Seattle Roberts, Ray T Virginia
11 Pittsburgh Searcy, Leon T Miami
12 Miami Coleman, Marco DE Georgia Tech

Again a tackle high (2)...but the first pass rusher goes off the board at 12.

All this proves is that each and every year teams draft for need.
And just because Suggs doesn't go in the top five, doesn't make him lower quality, that is weak logic on your part.

Checkmate. (Kidding )

 

[Cheesebeef]

Originally posted by Krangthebrain
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 Cleveland Couch, Tim QB Kentucky
2 Philadelphia McNabb, Donovan QB Syracuse
3 Cincinnati Smith, Akili QB Oregon
4 Indianapolis James, Edgerrin RB Miami
5 New Orleans Williams, Ricky RB Texas
6 St. Louis Holt, Torry WR North Carolina State
7 Washington Bailey, Champ CB Georgia
8 Arizona Boston, David WR Ohio State
9 Detroit Claiborne, Chris MLB Southern California
10 Baltimore McAlister, Chris CB Arizona
11 Minnesota Culpepper, Daunte QB Central Florida
12 Chicago McNown, Cade QB UCLA
13 Pittsburgh Edwards, Troy WR Louisiana Tech
14 Kansas City Tait, John T Brigham Young
15 Tampa Bay McFarland, Anthony NT Louisiana State
16 Tennessee Kearse, Jevon DE Florida

Hmm....no pass rushers in the top ten....and the top pass rusher in this draft went at 16 and set the NFL rookie record for sacks!
1997
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 St. Louis Pace, Orlando T Ohio State
2 Oakland Russell, Darrell DT Southern California
3 Seattle Springs, Shawn CB Ohio State
4 Baltimore Boulware, Peter OLB Florida State
5 Detroit Westbrook, Bryant CB Texas
6 Seattle Jones, Walter T Florida State
7 N.Y. Giants Hilliard, Ike WR Florida
8 N.Y. Jets Farrior, James ILB Virginia
9 Arizona Knight, Tommy CB Iowa
10 New Orleans Naeole, Chris * Colorado
11 Atlanta Booker, Michael CB Nebraska
12 Tampa Bay Dunn, Warrick RB Florida State
13 Kansas City Gonzalez, Tony TE California
14 Cincinnati Wilson, Reinard DE Florida State

Hmm.....a tackle high....but the first pass rusher goes at 14!

1995
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 Cincinnati Carter, Ki-Jana RB Penn State
2 Jacksonville Boselli, Tony T Southern California
3 Houston McNair, Steve QB Alcorn State
4 Washington Westbrook, Michael WR Colorado
5 Carolina Collins, Kerry QB Penn State
6 St. Louis Carter, Kevin DE Florida

A defensive end (an end who has gone to the pro bowl) slides to number six....the pick we have this year.

1992
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 Indianapolis Emtman, Steve DT Washington
2 Indianapolis Coryatt, Quentin MLB Texas A&M
3 L.A. Rams Gilbert, Sean DT Pittsburgh
4 Washington Howard, Desmond WR Michigan
5 Green Bay Buckley, Terrell CB Florida State
6 Cincinnati Klingler, David QB Houston
7 Miami Vincent, Troy CB Wisconsin
8 Atlanta Whitfield, Bob T Stanford
9 Cleveland Vardell, Tommy FB Stanford
10 Seattle Roberts, Ray T Virginia
11 Pittsburgh Searcy, Leon T Miami
12 Miami Coleman, Marco DE Georgia Tech

Again a tackle high (2)...but the first pass rusher goes off the board at 12.

All this proves is that each and every year teams draft for need.
And just because Suggs doesn't go in the top five, doesn't make him lower quality, that is weak logic on your part.

Checkmate. (Kidding )

You and I both know Boulware was DE in college and is a pass rusher - don't even try that one. - and he is Pro Bowler - so I will eliminate that year for you - but nice try. Now onto the rest of those stellar DE that got picked outside the top four or five - let's -Reinard Wilson - and this tsrengthens your point how? Marcus Coleman - decent DE - nothing spectacular - how many pro bowls has he been to - again - is there a reason he wasn't picked until he was? Jevon Kearse - okay so you got me on that one. Kevin Carter - had ONE great year and has been a dissapointment ever since. So what was your point again?

I mean basically you have shown that in only 3 out of the last 10 drafts, has the first DE been drafted outside the top 5 - and only one of them is a bona-fide All-Pro year in, year out player - by the way, what's Kearse's time again and what were his strength numbers? So basically one DE in the last 10 years who wasn't a high pick has turned out to be stud. I think I wil alllow you to take that checkmate back.

Also - if Suggs is SOOO GREAT - why is it that Peppers, who you put below Suggs - and picked 2nd, could get 12 sacks his rookie year and why is it that Simeon could get 12.5 sacks his rookie year, yet you only think suggs will get 8-10? What kind of sense that does that make.

Nice suns game by the way tonight - can't believe I put off going to Palm Springs to start partying for coachella a night early to watch that debacle. Why do I get this bad feeling that it will be balck mark weekend for phoenix sports. If hear we draft Trufant tomorrow while I'm banging to the Beasties then I know what's in store for Sunday's game.

Have fun watching the draft folks - it should be plenty more entertainment for us!

 

[earthsci]

Krang,
I know that you are making a completely different point but, your example of the '92 draft convinces me more to trade down. Out of the top ten, only one was worth a damn (Whitfield).

 

[Krangodnzr]

Well first off, I skipped over Boulware on accident. Mental error on my part. But the point I was proving is that every draft has it's own dynamics.

This draft we have 2 blue chip Qbs: Palmer, and Leftwich

This draft has two Blue Chip Receivers: Rogers, Johnson

arguably two blue chip defensive tackles: Robertson, Kennedy

And two blue chip corners: Trufant and Newman.

But only one (and again I know many on this board don't believe it) blue chip defensive end.

Now lets examine team needs:

1. Cin: Cb, DT, QB. They have Justin Smith, so they don't have a big need for Suggs. The Bengals actually aren't that far from being an ok team (though it is hard to believe that).

2. Det: Wr, and virtually everything but DL. Drafted an undersized defensive end last year, who also ran a bad 40, but who had 6 sacks in spot duty (Kalimba Edwards). They also have former Pro Bowler Robert Porcher and decent backup James Hall.

3. Texans: OL, Wr, LB
The Texans need a speed rush linebacker, and Suggs doesn't fit that bill (and most ends don't). Simeon Rice wouldn't be that good in their scheme either, since it requires coverage as well as rushing the passer. The will take one later in the draft since 3-4 OLBs can be had later.

4. Jets: DT, WR, OL
The Jets always want to have a real strong defense. The only thing that thing their defense is lacking is a big strong tackle to go with Jason Ferguson, Shaun Ellis, John Abraham, and Bryan Thomas. They also need a receiver.

5. Cowboys: CB, DE, QB, RB
The Cowboys have a lot of needs. This the team that I think could still take Suggs. Parcells drafted Willie McGinest who Suggs is similar to. But Newman is the popular pick with Jerry Jones, and Parcells will never turn down a good cover corner.

Now that leaves the Cardinals.....

6. ARIZONA CARDINALS: DE, WR, DT, CB, QB
Looking at the team and the most obvious problem is a terrible pass rush. That pass rush has been consistently bad for 3 years now. Terrell Suggs is the number DE that fills our number one need.

Most experts rank Suggs, even after his poor workouts, as the number 3 prospect in the draft (or around that area). These aren't ratings made by me or you. Any fool can pop in a tape of Suggs last year, and tell you that he was the best defender in the country last year.

And the poor workout argument has been shown to be weak. Julius Peppers, Simeon Rice, Marcellus Wiley, Michael Strahan, and many other great ends didn't run 4.6, and in most cases were in th 4.75 to even the 4.9 area. I heard Seth Joyner, a guy who actually got quite a few sacks in his career, say that speed is less important than technique and desire.

Hey....have a good time at coachella! Make sure that you can get home afterwards safely!

 

[Harry]

Some quick thoughts

Trading down only works if you can evaluate talent well enough to know who everyone else is underrating. Somehow that doesn't sound like the Cards to me.

If Suggs is taken (he should be) and only gets 8 sack, the Cards would be dancing in the streets. It's really the play disruption plus the sacks that really makes the difference. Many QBs on the move throw far less precise passes, hence more incompletes and interceptions. Pressure is the name of the game.

This is the same deal the Bears turned down only the 2nd was fixed, not variable. It's a lousy offer since it doesn't net you an extra player and it costs you a chance at a "real" impact player.

Forget Taylor Jacobs. His bust potential is too high. McDougle is decent, but doesn't look special. Remember my old draft rule about being cautious about linemen playing on highly talented lines. They are rarely double-teamed and much harder to evaluate. His recent arrest is a concern also. I like Haynes, but not enough to take this trade.

 

[BuckeyeCardinal]

Nice

Originally posted by Harry
Some quick thoughts

Trading down only works if you can evaluate talent well enough to know who everyone else is underrating. Somehow that doesn't sound like the Cards to me.

If Suggs is taken (he should be) and only gets 8 sack, the Cards would be dancing in the streets. It's really the play disruption plus the sacks that really makes the difference. Many QBs on the move throw far less precise passes, hence more incompletes and interceptions. Pressure is the name of the game.

This is the same deal the Bears turned down only the 2nd was fixed, not variable. It's a lousy offer since it doesn't net you an extra player and it costs you a chance at a "real" impact player.

Forget Taylor Jacobs. His bust potential is too high. McDougle is decent, but doesn't look special. Remember my old draft rule about being cautious about linemen playing on highly talented lines. They are rarely double-teamed and much harder to evaluate. His recent arrest is a concern also. I like Haynes, but not enough to take this trade.

Great post Harry.

 

[JeffGollin]

Latest rumors (off ESPN radio) says that Baltimore now plans to stand pat with their #10 pick.

If so, this would remove pressure on Jax (#8) to trade with us since they'd no longer be afraid that Billick would leapfrog them in order to steal Leftwich.

None of the offers for 2 mid or late round picks makes sense, in my opinion.

Therefore, I predict that - other than possibly Dallas to #2 or #3 - there won't be any other blockbuster first round trades and the Cards will not trade down.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Originally posted by Harry
Some quick thoughts

Trading down only works if you can evaluate talent well enough to know who everyone else is underrating. Somehow that doesn't sound like the Cards to me.

If Suggs is taken (he should be) and only gets 8 sack, the Cards would be dancing in the streets. It's really the play disruption plus the sacks that really makes the difference. Many QBs on the move throw far less precise passes, hence more incompletes and interceptions. Pressure is the name of the game.

This is the same deal the Bears turned down only the 2nd was fixed, not variable. It's a lousy offer since it doesn't net you an extra player and it costs you a chance at a "real" impact player.

Forget Taylor Jacobs. His bust potential is too high. McDougle is decent, but doesn't look special. Remember my old draft rule about being cautious about linemen playing on highly talented lines. They are rarely double-teamed and much harder to evaluate. His recent arrest is a concern also. I like Haynes, but not enough to take this trade.

I agree 100%, though I like Jacobs a little more (but admittedly his bust potential is high).

I tried to tell Cheesebeef that I thought 8-10 sacks is a realistic number to consider from a 20 year old defensive end. That's one of my favorite things about Suggs, is that he will grow into being a man in the NFL much like Boston did, and Amare Stoudemire of the Suns (who is the same age)...