Kenyan Drake as a top-10 fantasy RB1?

[Chris_Sanders]

In most scoring systems 10 yards rushing = 1 point but 25 yards passing = 1 point. Murray will certainly rush for at least 600 yards so imagine 60 fantasy points you add in 4000 yards passing and now you are 220 points without TDs. These are TEENY gains over last year.

Brady 4500 yards and 30 yards rushing is 186 points
Brees 5000 yards and 10 yards rushing is 201 points
Prescott 4900 yards and 240 yards rushing is 220 points
Wilson 4200 yards and 320 yards rushing is 200 points

If you only get 4 points for passing TDs then I expect Murray to get at least 4 rushing scores so that is another 8 points.

I believe he ends up between QB 3 and QB 6.

I have him in dynasty and I am glad because I won't be paying a round 4 QB cost.

 

[Solar7]

That’s crazy that he was released. I’ve been playing in the same league for over 2 decades and starting RB’s are never released during the season. Our toilet bowl pays $150.
I do agree that he’ll probably be over drafted in a lot of leagues but he’s a starting RB who’s going to have a lot of opportunity to put up points in what should be a high powered offense. He’s a risk/reward if you take him in the first 2 rounds. Personally, I wouldn’t take him until the 3rd.

Yeah, I'm taking him in the 4th or late 3rd as a flyer, but I think he'll be greatly overdrafted.

I play in some pretty competitive leagues, but there was fear over the return of David Johnson and the lack of production that came after the SF game. Odds are, he didn't help you make the playoffs in that run-up to week 13, and then if you were in the playoffs, you probably had better options. Lots of people I play with at that point are dropping low-end starting RBs (which let's be honest, Drake was until Cleveland) for high-upside handcuff RBs to their own star players.

Unfortunately ESPN's FantasyCast seems to be down for maintenance or something so I can't confirm the numbers, but I was following it closely at the time since I was originally mad I only got one share of him after the trade.

 

[Solar7]

In most scoring systems 10 yards rushing = 1 point but 25 yards passing = 1 point. Murray will certainly rush for at least 600 yards so imagine 60 fantasy points you add in 4000 yards passing and now you are 220 points without TDs. These are TEENY gains over last year.

Brady 4500 yards and 30 yards rushing is 186 points
Brees 5000 yards and 10 yards rushing is 201 points
Prescott 4900 yards and 240 yards rushing is 220 points
Wilson 4200 yards and 320 yards rushing is 200 points

If you only get 4 points for passing TDs then I expect Murray to get at least 4 rushing scores so that is another 8 points.

I believe he ends up between QB 3 and QB 6.

I have him in dynasty and I am glad because I won't be paying a round 4 QB cost.

Yep, agreed with all of this. The rushing certainly helps Murray's floor. I gave up a reasonable amount of assets to acquire him in Dynasty - especially important since we have a 2 QB situation functionally, with an offensive utility position.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Yep, agreed with all of this. The rushing certainly helps Murray's floor. I gave up a reasonable amount of assets to acquire him in Dynasty - especially important since we have a 2 QB situation functionally, with an offensive utility position.

Oh wow in a two QB league he is a top 10 pick. That is outstanding

 

[DumboD]

I think, as long as he stays healthy and gets most of the snaps, it's certainly reasonable to expect him to be a Top Ten Fantasy RB1. But this will also be due to the success of Murray as a running threat and improvement on the O-line.
The Top Ten Fantasy RBs are not necessarily the best RBs, but they are in a system that gives them many opportunities to rack up fantasy points.

 

[HGC]

Yeah, I'm taking him in the 4th or late 3rd as a flyer, but I think he'll be greatly overdrafted.

I play in some pretty competitive leagues, but there was fear over the return of David Johnson and the lack of production that came after the SF game. Odds are, he didn't help you make the playoffs in that run-up to week 13, and then if you were in the playoffs, you probably had better options. Lots of people I play with at that point are dropping low-end starting RBs (which let's be honest, Drake was until Cleveland) for high-upside handcuff RBs to their own star players.

Unfortunately ESPN's FantasyCast seems to be down for maintenance or something so I can't confirm the numbers, but I was following it closely at the time since I was originally mad I only got one share of him after the trade.

I’d love to know who they were keeping stashed on their roster to drop Drake. Even with his poor outings he was a decent play as an emergency start and that’s exactly what he was in our league. He got our league winner 69 points in his last 2 starts.

 

[Solar7]

I’d love to know who they were keeping stashed on their roster to drop Drake. Even with his poor outings he was a decent play as an emergency start and that’s exactly what he was in our league. He got our league winner 69 points in his last 2 starts.

I personally released him for Alexander Mattison as a Dalvin Cook owner when my other RB was Derrick Henry. Drake was never getting the start over those guys for me, not after consecutive bad games. (Also, it was a PPR league where I ended up with three top-15 WRs.)

Dropped for Jack Doyle in another. In 3 leagues, he was on the bench of guys who weren't making the playoffs, so I forget what happened. In the last, he was retained and they started him against Seattle.

 

[Russ Smith]

That's not really a sleeper.

KC backs always produce, even untalented ones like Damien Willams.

Helaire is a no brainer top 10 producer.

Yep that's why I said is already not a sleeper. He might lose TD's to others but otherwise I expect him to be a big point guy right away in that offense.

 

[Dr. Jones]

In most scoring systems 10 yards rushing = 1 point but 25 yards passing = 1 point. Murray will certainly rush for at least 600 yards so imagine 60 fantasy points you add in 4000 yards passing and now you are 220 points without TDs. These are TEENY gains over last year.

Brady 4500 yards and 30 yards rushing is 186 points
Brees 5000 yards and 10 yards rushing is 201 points
Prescott 4900 yards and 240 yards rushing is 220 points
Wilson 4200 yards and 320 yards rushing is 200 points

If you only get 4 points for passing TDs then I expect Murray to get at least 4 rushing scores so that is another 8 points.

I believe he ends up between QB 3 and QB 6.

I have him in dynasty and I am glad because I won't be paying a round 4 QB cost.

Yep, agreed with all of this. The rushing certainly helps Murray's floor. I gave up a reasonable amount of assets to acquire him in Dynasty - especially important since we have a 2 QB situation functionally, with an offensive utility position.

I have him in Dynasty and get 6pts per passing TD.

Can't wait for the season.... I have Hakeem, Andy, and Nkeal also. Hoping one can do something for me.

 

[Proximo]

Yep that's why I said is already not a sleeper. He might lose TD's to others but otherwise I expect him to be a big point guy right away in that offense.

Yeah, I think in my book I would draft him as the 4th or 5th RB - I think that highly of his potential, well that and there just aren't that many sure things.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I believe Drake is a top 10 fantasy back because he has such an easy handcuff. You can grab Edmonds super late and basically have the Cardinals running game.

 

[Solar7]

I believe Drake is a top 10 fantasy back because he has such an easy handcuff. You can grab Edmonds super late and basically have the Cardinals running game.

Not a bad idea, but man, the investment on Drake is gonna be so high if this is right. You're looking at bypassing an elite WR or TE to grab him. I just don't think Drake wins you the weekly matchup against someone else, where snagging Michael Thomas or Kelce, you do.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Not a bad idea, but man, the investment on Drake is gonna be so high if this is right. You're looking at bypassing an elite WR or TE to grab him. I just don't think Drake wins you the weekly matchup against someone else, where snagging Michael Thomas or Kelce, you do.

Thomas and Kelce are round 1 guys. I see Drake as a round 2 guy

 

[Solar7]

Thomas and Kelce are round 1 guys. I see Drake as a round 2 guy

Sorry, I was just going with the thought presented in the OP. If he's an RB1, top-ten, he's someone that you're looking at during the turnaround in a 12 teamer. I know standard is technically 10 teams, but if you're at 10/11/12 and need an RB, with CBS's rankings you'd snag Drake with one of your top two, assuming you don't employ zero-RB.

(Sorry, I geek out on FF too much!)

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Sorry, I was just going with the thought presented in the OP. If he's an RB1, top-ten, he's someone that you're looking at during the turnaround in a 12 teamer. I know standard is technically 10 teams, but if you're at 10/11/12 and need an RB, with CBS's rankings you'd snag Drake with one of your top two, assuming you don't employ zero-RB.

(Sorry, I geek out on FF too much!)

Oh I saw it as a question of will he be in the top 10 RB ranks at the end of the season.

PFF has him #12 right now but he could EASILY be ahead of these guys:

Fournette - Bad offense and team tried to ditch him

Ekeler - New QB does he still get all those catches? They drafted a back

Henry - Too TD reliant. Doesn't catch the ball

I would take Drake over these guys in PPR

 

[Dr. Jones]

But would you take Drake over Chris Godwin in a .5pt PPR Dynasty league?

 

[Garthshort]

My concern about Kenyan Drake falls into the, "You never know category". As in this time last year, I was certain that David Johnson would have a VG year.

 

[HoodieBets]

But would you take Drake over Chris Godwin in a .5pt PPR Dynasty league?

That’s a no for me dawg.


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[Chris_Sanders]

But would you take Drake over Chris Godwin in a .5pt PPR Dynasty league?

I consider both 2nd round picks. It would depend on what I took round 1.

My problem with Godwin is Tom Brady.

Brate and Howard had 108 targets for Arians. They aren't Gronk and Brady. I am going to pencil in a 20% increase in TE targets so 130 targets

Brady's RB targets are 146, 154, 148 in the last three years. Arians loves to use the RB in the passing game and had 110 targets for RBs last year as well. I figure that average of 150 looks right.

So before getting to WR share we are looking at 280 targets to non WRs. I only see about 310 to 350 targets for WRs remaining.

Godwin was getting 8.6 targets per game. Over a full season that is 147 targets. It's just too much of a share with Brady. Worse Godwin is really unlikely to duplicate his 15.5 yards per catch under Brady. I see him more in the 12-13 yards per completion.

So a 20% loss YPC and a 20% loss in targets means I am paying for last year's production in cost but knowing I am getting a reduction this year.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Well..... that's all pretty conservative but totally possible.

Some things I adjust in:

Gronk missing time. 2-4 games
Evans missing time. 1-3 games
A crappy run game.
No real RB options for the passing game except for a rookie.
Arians loves his Fitz/Ward WR. And so does Brady.
A defense still giving up points in a highly competitive division.

I do see 150 targets. 90 to 100 catches. And a reduction in overall TD's.

Where this swings wildly to Godwin IMO is age. The kid will play the entire season at 24 years old. If this was a redraft league..... I may go KD. In dynasty..... No way IMO.

 

[Sunburn]

I consider both 2nd round picks. It would depend on what I took round 1.

My problem with Godwin is Tom Brady.

Brate and Howard had 108 targets for Arians. They aren't Gronk and Brady. I am going to pencil in a 20% increase in TE targets so 130 targets

Brady's RB targets are 146, 154, 148 in the last three years. Arians loves to use the RB in the passing game and had 110 targets for RBs last year as well. I figure that average of 150 looks right.

So before getting to WR share we are looking at 280 targets to non WRs. I only see about 310 to 350 targets for WRs remaining.

Godwin was getting 8.6 targets per game. Over a full season that is 147 targets. It's just too much of a share with Brady. Worse Godwin is really unlikely to duplicate his 15.5 yards per catch under Brady. I see him more in the 12-13 yards per completion.

So a 20% loss YPC and a 20% loss in targets means I am paying for last year's production in cost but knowing I am getting a reduction this year.

I like your analysis. However, I have a couple points of argument. Edelman was a target hog for Brady. I see Godwin fitting that role more than anyone else. Not to mention, we're talking dynasty here. I see Godwin being a top WR for years to come. I can't say the same for Drake.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I like your analysis. However, I have a couple points of argument. Edelman was a target hog for Brady. I see Godwin fitting that role more than anyone else. Not to mention, we're talking dynasty here. I see Godwin being a top WR for years to come. I can't say the same for Drake.

Yes Edelman is a path for targets but not a path for yardage or touchdowns. Edelman was a WR 2 at best

His price right now is a WR1.

Dynasty you should still be planning on winning short term 1-3 years

 

[Sunburn]

Yes Edelman is a path for targets but not a path for yardage or touchdowns. Edelman was a WR 2 at best

His price right now is a WR1.

Dynasty you should still be planning on winning short term 1-3 years

Godwin just finished the season as the best WR in fantasy with the exception of Thomas. Godwin is more talented than Edelman. If Godwin gets Edelman's target share, there's no doubt in my mind he'll be a high end WR1.

 

[cardpa]

My sleeper at RB isn't even a sleeper already, I just today saw someone say he's a RB 2 today but a RB 1 by his second year, Clyde Edwards-Helaire. If you look at the Chiefs RB's they tend to do VERY well. The last couple of years it was a bit of RBBC due to injury but CEH seems like he'll walk right in there over 1000 yards with likely pretty good receiving yards too. The one concern on him is if they took him out on short yardage but he's pretty good at that too.

I can see Kyler being really good in FF this year too. He gets the rushing TD's and I think the passing TD's will probably jump up a bit this year, we have a better idea what to do at TE, and I think D Hop is going to give us such a huge threat in the passing game it'll open other things.

not sure on Drake, I think he'll get TD's yes, I could see him top 10 but the concern is Kyler will get some of the rushing TD
s

My sleeper at RB for 2020 is Miles Sanders of the Eagles. I see him having a breakout year. Also less competition at RB in Philly.