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Because Cardinals general manager Steve Keim did not conduct an end-of-the-season news conference, we have no idea what he’s thinking when it comes to free agency and the draft.
What we do know is this: After re-signing wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald to a one-year contract worth approximately $11 million, the Cardinals have about $53.6 million in cap space, according to overthecap.com.
That $53 million is very much a fluid figure, though. As much as $20 million will go to tackle D.J. Humphries and running back Kenyan Drake, assuming they re-sign. Arizona also will have to set aside some of that cap space to sign other veterans, including center A.Q. Shipley, kicker Zane Gonzalez and backup quarterback Brett Hundley.
Conversely, the Cardinals could create more cap space via trade, releasing a player or restructuring a contract.
Arizona also has seven picks in the upcoming draft, although that could change as well if Keim swings a deal or two.
What will Keim do with those assets? We can’t say. But I know what I would do if I were GM. Here’s a look at how I would build the roster:
Re-sign Humphries
No other deal will give Keim as much heartburn. Humphries has played a full season just once in his four-year career. He was considered an underachiever his first three seasons before finally blossoming under coach Sean Kugler in 2019. Giving him a multi-year deal that could be worth more than $50 million, with at least $30 million in guaranteed money, is a huge risk.
But what choice do the Cardinals have? The franchise is being built around Kyler Murray. Protecting him is the No. 1 priority. If Arizona doesn’t re-sign Humphries, it will have to spend a significant portion of its cap space to sign a free agent or be forced to use its first-round pick on a left tackle.
Re-sign Drake
According to spotrac.com, Drake’s market value in free agency is a four-year deal worth $22.2 million, an average of $5.56 million per season. That would make Drake the 10th highest-paid running back in football.
Is he worth it?
Few NFL teams are willing to give running backs significant contracts. The deals given to Johnson and the Los Angeles Rams’ Todd Gurley hang over their teams like gray storm clouds. Also, because more college concepts such as the zone read are being used in the NFL, it’s easier to find running backs with mid-round picks who can contribute immediately while on inexpensive rookie deals.
But when it comes to Drake, the Cardinals should sign the check. In eight games with Arizona, Drake averaged 5.2 yards per carry and caught 28 passes. He proved he’s a No. 1 back, a fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s system, and the Cardinals have enough cap space to absorb paying their top back $5.5 million.
Re-sign Shipley, Hundley, Gonzalez, Justin Murray, Zach Kerr, Damiere Byrd and Pharoh Cooper
The Cardinals can’t — nor should they — re-sign all 25 of their free agents. But those seven should be priorities for Keim.
A two-year, $5 million deal might be enough to retain Shipley, who already has said he wants to return. Hundley made $1.875 million as Kyler Murray’s backup in 2019, and a two-year, $4 million deal seems reasonable. Gonzalez should receive a multi-year deal worth at least $3.5 million, which would place him among the top-15-paid kickers in the league.
Kerr flashed promise in his 12 games with Arizona, and the Cardinals desperately need defensive linemen. Kerr’s market value is $4 million a year, according to spotrac.com.
Byrd and Cooper shouldn’t cost the Cardinals a lot of money. They each made $720,000 in 2019 and, by the end of the season, they were significant contributors, Byrd as the team’s No. 3 receiver and best deep threat and Cooper as the team’s top returner.
Restructure David Johnson’s contract
In order to trade Johnson, the Cardinals should emulate the Miami Dolphins’ approach when they dealt quarterback Ryan Tannehill to the Tennessee Titans in March 2019.
Miami restructured part of Tannehill’s guaranteed money into a signing bonus, thus decreasing the monetary cost for Tennessee.
Johnson is guaranteed $10.2 million this coming season. The Cardinals should turn at least $6 million of that into a signing bonus. The $6 million still will count against their cap, but it will be far easier to trade Johnson if a team has to pay him only $4 million.
Once the restructuring is complete, Arizona should place a call to Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians and ask if he would like to be reunited with Johnson in exchange for a fourth-round draft pick.
Spend their cap space on defense
If the Cardinals re-sign Humphries and Drake, they’ll have one desperate need on offense entering free agency: a No. 1 receiver. But after giving Fitzgerald $11 million, it makes little sense for Arizona to pay big money to a free agent such as Dallas’ Amari Cooper or pursue a trade for, say, Cleveland’s Odell Beckham Jr., who has four years and $56 million left on his contract.
(Arizona also could use a right tackle but re-signing Murray and drafting a tackle between the second and fourth rounds would be palatable.)
Instead, the bulk of Arizona’s cap space should be spent on the league’s No. 32-ranked defense and specifically on a defensive lineman or edge rusher.
Keim traditionally hasn’t gone for the big-money, first-day deals in free agency in part because the Cardinals haven’t had a lot of money to spend the past five years, and he prefers to spread his cap space around.
But this is the year to change that philosophy. Keim should do what it takes to land one of three defensive linemen (assuming they do hit free agency): Kansas City’s Chris Jones, Jacksonville’s Yannick Ngakoue or San Francisco’s Arik Armstead.
The Cardinals need impact players on their front seven, and they have money to spend. Get it done.
Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons celebrates the ACC title Dec. 7, 2019. (Photo by John Byrum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The draft
Let’s assume our plan comes to fruition. Arizona re-signs Humphries, Drake and a few other of its free agents, is able to trade Johnson and lands an elite defensive lineman in free agency.
At that point, it will be tempting to use the No. 8 pick on one of the top three receivers in the draft: Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, or Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III or Jerry Jeudy.
But that’s not what I would do. Yes, the Cardinals need a No. 1 wideout. But I can give you three reasons to not draft a receiver in the first round:
First, Arizona averaged 23.8 points per game over its eight final games in 2019. That would have ranked the Cardinals 14th over the course of a full season. Defense, not offense, was the problem.
Second, this a deep draft for wide receivers. The Athletic’s draft expert, Dane Brugler, has 17 wideouts listed among his top 100 prospects. The Cardinals could land a potential No. 1 receiver in the second round.
Finally, Clemson outside linebacker Isaiah Simmons.
Simmons, if he’s available at No. 8, is the ideal complement to Chandler Jones. His ability to drop back into coverage will allow Jones to remain at WILL linebacker, whose primary responsibility in defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s system is to rush the passer.
Simmons not only can excel in pass coverage, he had eight sacks this past season for Clemson. Brugler called Simmons the, “ideal modern-day defender.”
Imagine how much better Arizona’s defense would be in 2020 with, say, Armstead at defensive end and Simmons at outside linebacker.
Because Cardinals general manager Steve Keim did not conduct an end-of-the-season news conference, we have no idea what he’s thinking when it comes to free agency and the draft.
What we do know is this: After re-signing wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald to a one-year contract worth approximately $11 million, the Cardinals have about $53.6 million in cap space, according to overthecap.com.
That $53 million is very much a fluid figure, though. As much as $20 million will go to tackle D.J. Humphries and running back Kenyan Drake, assuming they re-sign. Arizona also will have to set aside some of that cap space to sign other veterans, including center A.Q. Shipley, kicker Zane Gonzalez and backup quarterback Brett Hundley.
Conversely, the Cardinals could create more cap space via trade, releasing a player or restructuring a contract.
Arizona also has seven picks in the upcoming draft, although that could change as well if Keim swings a deal or two.
What will Keim do with those assets? We can’t say. But I know what I would do if I were GM. Here’s a look at how I would build the roster:
Re-sign Humphries
No other deal will give Keim as much heartburn. Humphries has played a full season just once in his four-year career. He was considered an underachiever his first three seasons before finally blossoming under coach Sean Kugler in 2019. Giving him a multi-year deal that could be worth more than $50 million, with at least $30 million in guaranteed money, is a huge risk.
But what choice do the Cardinals have? The franchise is being built around Kyler Murray. Protecting him is the No. 1 priority. If Arizona doesn’t re-sign Humphries, it will have to spend a significant portion of its cap space to sign a free agent or be forced to use its first-round pick on a left tackle.
Re-sign Drake
According to spotrac.com, Drake’s market value in free agency is a four-year deal worth $22.2 million, an average of $5.56 million per season. That would make Drake the 10th highest-paid running back in football.
Is he worth it?
Few NFL teams are willing to give running backs significant contracts. The deals given to Johnson and the Los Angeles Rams’ Todd Gurley hang over their teams like gray storm clouds. Also, because more college concepts such as the zone read are being used in the NFL, it’s easier to find running backs with mid-round picks who can contribute immediately while on inexpensive rookie deals.
But when it comes to Drake, the Cardinals should sign the check. In eight games with Arizona, Drake averaged 5.2 yards per carry and caught 28 passes. He proved he’s a No. 1 back, a fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s system, and the Cardinals have enough cap space to absorb paying their top back $5.5 million.
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Re-sign Shipley, Hundley, Gonzalez, Justin Murray, Zach Kerr, Damiere Byrd and Pharoh Cooper
The Cardinals can’t — nor should they — re-sign all 25 of their free agents. But those seven should be priorities for Keim.
A two-year, $5 million deal might be enough to retain Shipley, who already has said he wants to return. Hundley made $1.875 million as Kyler Murray’s backup in 2019, and a two-year, $4 million deal seems reasonable. Gonzalez should receive a multi-year deal worth at least $3.5 million, which would place him among the top-15-paid kickers in the league.
Kerr flashed promise in his 12 games with Arizona, and the Cardinals desperately need defensive linemen. Kerr’s market value is $4 million a year, according to spotrac.com.
Byrd and Cooper shouldn’t cost the Cardinals a lot of money. They each made $720,000 in 2019 and, by the end of the season, they were significant contributors, Byrd as the team’s No. 3 receiver and best deep threat and Cooper as the team’s top returner.
Restructure David Johnson’s contract
In order to trade Johnson, the Cardinals should emulate the Miami Dolphins’ approach when they dealt quarterback Ryan Tannehill to the Tennessee Titans in March 2019.
Miami restructured part of Tannehill’s guaranteed money into a signing bonus, thus decreasing the monetary cost for Tennessee.
Johnson is guaranteed $10.2 million this coming season. The Cardinals should turn at least $6 million of that into a signing bonus. The $6 million still will count against their cap, but it will be far easier to trade Johnson if a team has to pay him only $4 million.
Once the restructuring is complete, Arizona should place a call to Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians and ask if he would like to be reunited with Johnson in exchange for a fourth-round draft pick.
Spend their cap space on defense
If the Cardinals re-sign Humphries and Drake, they’ll have one desperate need on offense entering free agency: a No. 1 receiver. But after giving Fitzgerald $11 million, it makes little sense for Arizona to pay big money to a free agent such as Dallas’ Amari Cooper or pursue a trade for, say, Cleveland’s Odell Beckham Jr., who has four years and $56 million left on his contract.
(Arizona also could use a right tackle but re-signing Murray and drafting a tackle between the second and fourth rounds would be palatable.)
Instead, the bulk of Arizona’s cap space should be spent on the league’s No. 32-ranked defense and specifically on a defensive lineman or edge rusher.
Keim traditionally hasn’t gone for the big-money, first-day deals in free agency in part because the Cardinals haven’t had a lot of money to spend the past five years, and he prefers to spread his cap space around.
But this is the year to change that philosophy. Keim should do what it takes to land one of three defensive linemen (assuming they do hit free agency): Kansas City’s Chris Jones, Jacksonville’s Yannick Ngakoue or San Francisco’s Arik Armstead.
The Cardinals need impact players on their front seven, and they have money to spend. Get it done.
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Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons celebrates the ACC title Dec. 7, 2019. (Photo by John Byrum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The draft
Let’s assume our plan comes to fruition. Arizona re-signs Humphries, Drake and a few other of its free agents, is able to trade Johnson and lands an elite defensive lineman in free agency.
At that point, it will be tempting to use the No. 8 pick on one of the top three receivers in the draft: Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, or Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III or Jerry Jeudy.
But that’s not what I would do. Yes, the Cardinals need a No. 1 wideout. But I can give you three reasons to not draft a receiver in the first round:
First, Arizona averaged 23.8 points per game over its eight final games in 2019. That would have ranked the Cardinals 14th over the course of a full season. Defense, not offense, was the problem.
Second, this a deep draft for wide receivers. The Athletic’s draft expert, Dane Brugler, has 17 wideouts listed among his top 100 prospects. The Cardinals could land a potential No. 1 receiver in the second round.
Finally, Clemson outside linebacker Isaiah Simmons.
Simmons, if he’s available at No. 8, is the ideal complement to Chandler Jones. His ability to drop back into coverage will allow Jones to remain at WILL linebacker, whose primary responsibility in defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s system is to rush the passer.
Simmons not only can excel in pass coverage, he had eight sacks this past season for Clemson. Brugler called Simmons the, “ideal modern-day defender.”
Imagine how much better Arizona’s defense would be in 2020 with, say, Armstead at defensive end and Simmons at outside linebacker.
