Ugh, I did this before the Magic agreed to sign Rashard Lewis.
Feel free not to read beyond this point.
Feel free not to read beyond this point.
KG 3-WAY
When does a poison pill taste like candy?
I’m assuming the salary cap will be around $55 million this year. The salary numbers are from Hoopshype.
Orlando Magic
The key to this deal is Orlando. They’ve got a boatload of cap-room, and they’ve also got a young, talented big man (Darko Milicic) they don’t seem to be interested in keeping. With Darko and Grant Hill leaving, they have holes in their rotation at SF and PF, and they continue to need help at guard, too.
Right now Orlando is nosing around Rashard Lewis, but IMO they’d prefer Shawn Marion instead: Marion doesn’t have knee issues, he’ll give you 18/10 without holding the ball, and he can legitimately defend 1-4, which is a big deal for a Magic team that had a number of matchup issues last season. Marion gives the Magic 40 minutes, 80 games per year, filling both Hill’s and Darko’s minutes with All-Star-caliber play.
This deal is structured to leave them with enough cap space for an over-MLE free agent pickup after the Magic take Marion. As for Marion’s opt-out, it’s less of a concern for Orlando, because if he does opt out, it will give them enough cap space to sign a max-salary free agent next summer. In the meantime, they should be a significantly better team after this deal.
Currently on the books for $32.3 million (11 players)
Outgoing:
Rights to Darko Milicic
Pat Garrity ($3.8m, expiring)
Incoming:
Shawn Marion ($16.4m, two years)
Craig Smith ($0.7m, one year)
Phoenix’ 2008 first-round pick
The Magic get Smith and Phx’ pick because these are both good things to have.
New obligations: $45.6 million (+$13.3m) (13 players)
New lineup:
C: Dwight Howard
PF: Tony Battie
SF: Shawn Marion
SG: Hedo Turkoglu
PG: Jameer Nelson
Trevor Ariza
Carlos Arroyo
Keyon Dooling
Craig Smith
Keith Bogans
(free agent)
Phoenix Suns
The Suns want KG, but they don’t want to spend more money, and KG is on the books for $22m this year--plus he has a trade kicker worth more than $6m, and he can’t waive it unless it’s necessary to complete a trade. So, the Suns are looking at sending out several players, balancing the money will be very difficult, and at the end of the trade, they’ll be looking to have enough depth to compete for a title this season.
Ironically, the key for them is Boris Diaw’s base-year contract, sometimes known as a “poison pill contract”. The contract goes on Minnesota’s books for $9m, but only counts as $4.5m (50%) as an outgoing contract. And by league rules, the Suns are limited to taking back 125%+$100k of outgoing contracts…
The Suns also bring in Marko Jaric and Mark Madsen—bad contracts, but useful players with whom to reload. The Suns have been mildly interested in Jaric for a while now as a swingman off the bench, and Madsen brings the bare minimum the Suns need from a fourth big man: six fouls, intelligently used. They dump Marcus Banks, their main useless contract, but a player whose success in the NBA came in Minnesota.
The biggest problem for Phoenix: long-term salary relief would have to come from negotiating Garnett’s contract downward.
Currently on the books for ~$75 million (11 players)
Outgoing:
Atlanta’s 2008 first-round pick
Phoenix’s 2008 first-round pick
Shawn Marion ($16.4m, two years)
Boris Diaw ($4.5m--base year)
Marcus Banks ($3.9m, four years)
*1.25+.1 = $31.1m
Incoming:
Kevin Garnett ($22.0m, two years)
Marko Jaric ($6.1m, four years)
Mark Madsen ($2.4m, three years)
= ~$30.5m
Since there’s a $600k difference, I believe Garnett will be allowed to waive all but $600k of his trade kicker, so Garnett goes on the books for only $22.6m this season.
Outgoing:
Kurt Thomas ($8.1m, expiring)
Incoming:
Mark Blount ($6.7m, three years)
This side trade can’t go in with the rest because it would increase the Suns’ exposure to Garnett’s trade kicker, but it’s even enough that it should be able to go through separately. KT is an expiring contract, while Blount has a smaller salary this season, plus he has center size and is three years younger, making him less likely to have his skills suddenly vanish or injure himself while picking up his mail. Both players specialize in the mid-range jump shot.
Total Outgoing:
Atlanta’s 2008 first-round pick
Phoenix’s 2008 first-round pick
Shawn Marion ($16.4m)
Boris Diaw ($4.5m)
Marcus Banks ($3.9m)
Kurt Thomas ($8.1m)
Total Incoming:
Kevin Garnett ($22.6m)
Marko Jaric ($6.1m)
Mark Madsen ($2.4m)
Mark Blount ($6.7m)
New obligations: ~$75.4 million (+$400k) (11 players)
New (and improved) lineup:
C: Amare Stoudemire
PF: Kevin Garnett
SF: (Grant Hill)
SG: Raja Bell
PG: Steve Nash
Leandro Barbosa
Marko Jaric
Mark Blount
Alando Tucker
Mark Madsen
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves have been pretty clear what they’re looking for—young big men for McHale to train, high draft picks, and expiring contracts. Darko Milicic and Boris Diaw aren’t rookies, but they’re two of the most talented young bigs in the league, plus the Wolves wind up with Atlanta’s pick. They do lose Craig Smith, who played well for them last season, but he’ll be competently replaced by Chris Richard, their new second-round PF.
For the Darko sign-and-trade, the terms actually don’t make any difference to the other teams. I penciled him in at 6 years, $60 million, because that’s how Kevin McHale rolls.
As for salary relief:
Currently on the books for ~$71. million (13 players)
Outgoing:
Kevin Garnett ($22.0m, two years)
Mark Blount ($6.7m, three years)
Marko Jaric ($6.1m, four years)
Mark Madsen ($2.4m, three years)
Craig Smith ($0.7m, expiring)
Incoming:
Atlanta’s 2008 first-round pick
Darko Milicic ($7.7m, six years)
Boris Diaw ($9.0m, five years)
Marcus Banks ($3.9m, three years)
Kurt Thomas ($8.1m, expiring)
Pat Garrity ($3.8m, expiring)
New obligations: ~$65.5 million (-$5.5m) (13 players)
Lowering their salaries by $5.5 million might just put the Wolves under the luxury-tax line, so the Wolves will effectively save $11 million this season. They also receive about $12m in expiring contracts, so the savings for 2008-9 is around $17.5m.
This trade moves most of the Wolves’ long-term commitments off their books and replaces them with young talent locked into long-term contracts. In addition, they’ll have two lottery picks next summer, with a good shot at the #1 with their own pick.
New lineup:
C: Darko Milicic
PF: Boris Diaw
SF: Corey Brewer
SG: Ricky Davis
PG: Randy Foye
Trenton Hassell
Rashad McCants
Marcus Banks
Chris Richard
Juwan Howard
Kurt Thomas
Troy Hudson
Pat Garrity
@ F-Dog
