Kim the starter

[Derek in Tucson]

Thanks for clearing that up. I read, that season ticket sales are down 10% from last year.

I would expect that season ticket sales would be slightly off due to the economy and the fact that the DBacks got a boost last year not just because they won the World Series in 2001, but also because World Series tickets were part of the promotional deal they ran....buy season tickets for next year and you'll be guaranteed World Series tickets.

In the big picture, I see the Diamondbacks scaling back their payroll over the next few years now that the big run is on it's downside. I knew this was coming and fully expected it when they abandoned their initial plan back in 98 to build from within. Now I don't have a problem with that at all, but others do. I don't see how you can look back on the last 4 years as anything but a huge success, they've won 3 division titles in the last 4 years and a World Series title. They're also in a "small market", smaller than the Twins and with an ownership that doesn't have the big bucks that a Carl Pohlad has.

I can live with that though, because if I just wanted to be a fan of a team that wins every year, I'd be a Yankee fan. Steve's right, there's a lot of fans out there who only care about winning and that's the only time they show up. I'll be going to games whether they win 100 games or lose 100 games. I like the smaller crowds sometimes, but then I got some bad knees so I need the legroom.

 

[DWKB]

Here is an article regarding the SP experiments of Kim and Graves.

Showing the history of relievers to starters and how they performed, etc..


http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1703

 

[Derek in Tucson]

From what I've read from the comments at Baseball Primer about the latest book from Baseball Prospectus, offense will be down all over baseball...

"Has *anyone* figured out why it predicts 95% of the players in MLB will see a decline in their VORP... some huge drops. I contacted BP about the issue, but they never got back to me."
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"The VORP predictions in the book are definitely off. Others have suggested the replacement level was buggered. That would seem to be a likely cause. We are just waiting for an announcement from BP. Its getting a little annoying that they haven't said anything yet."
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"I noticed that as well that just about everyone over the age of 24 was predicted to decline. Perhaps they're erring on the conservative side, but it was a little ridiculous. The only explanation I can come up with is they're predicting a league wide decline in offense. Great American Ballpark isn't supposed to be the next Pac Bell."
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"has anyone else noticed that the pecota cards on the site don't match up with the projections in the book? sosa's weighted mean is a much more reasonable 44 hr, 64.1 vorp, .289/.401/.602. what gives?

the only thing i can think is that they went so crazy regressing the stats that the projections have almost no value in differentiating players anymore."
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Seems to me that Baseball Prospectus has some explaining to do, otherwise they're in danger of losing credibility. And the reason why I brought this up was the theory in the article that "PECOTA is expecting a big decline in the Snakes' offense". I've also heard that PECOTA hasn't exactly been given a clean bill of health as to it's accuracy, or that the inventor has even gone to any length to check it out through some kind of historical checking.

I would also take their comment that "it's not unrealistic to imagine Diamondbacks finishing 1-2-3 in the league ERA race; anything less, and Arizona could have trouble defending its title".

I don't think the DBacks need to have Johnson, Schilling, and Kim to finish 1-2-3 in ERA to win the division. By all indications so far, the Diamondbacks rotation as a whole is looking better than what they had last year. I'll take Dessens/Patterson/Kim over Helling/Anderson/Batista at this point.

I also don't think Kim fits the profile of your typical power pitcher used in that article. Kim throws a variety of pitches that have huge movement on them. He's not your typical over the top fastball pitcher with high K rates that you find historically.

So far the Kim move is looking good. The last 2 outings he's thrown 4 shutout innings each time without a high number of pitches thrown. Last time out, a game I was at, the Mariners loaded up the lineup with a lot of LH hitters and Kim didn't have much of a problem dealing with that. There's been some questions about how he'd be able to handle LH hitters, but so far he's been stellar.

 

[schillingfan]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
I also don't think Kim fits the profile of your typical power pitcher used in that article. Kim throws a variety of pitches that have huge movement on them. He's not your typical over the top fastball pitcher with high K rates that you find historically.

If one was to anecdotally profile Kim, I'd suggest Vicente Padilla, who also converted from reliever to starter. They are very similar pitchers, who have huge movement on their pitches. Padilla faired really well in conversion to starting, in part because the more extensive and structured warm-ups allow him to get more comfortable with the arm angles and movement. That sounds a lot like BK's problems to me.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

I don't know if you read that aricle or not that DWKB posted, but to even hint that there's a correlation between Kim and somebody like Scott Garrelts or Darren Dreifort doesn't even come close to a realistic portrait. Even though they question themselves about the validity of such comparisons, why they even brought it up is a good question since Kim isn't anywhere near the profile of Dreifort or Garrelts, both physically and with the mechanics of their pitching motions.

But I guess it backs up their preconceived notions that making a starter out of a reliever is a high risk venture, or at least that's my interpretation since just about every article I've read this spring on the national scene has been critical of the DBacks turning Kim into a starter. To most writers I've read, this move is seen as a danger to Kim's health...as if the act of pitching isn't a danger enough in itself to the health of one's arm.

The article goes through this whole study and doesn't really supply any solid historical eveidence that Kim either fits the profile they're comparing to, nor does it offer any new insight when they conclude that "Kim has cut down on his pitchers thrown per plate appearance in each of the last three seasons, and he'd be wise to continue to do so as he adapts to his new role. He is likely to be effective so long as his arm stays intact, but his conversion remains a high-risk, high-reward strategy."

Don't we already know that Kim has to cut down on his pitch counts? Haven't we read more than one article this spring that says Brenly and Kim know this, and it's something they're working on?

 

[schillingfan]

I read the article until I got to the chart with the numbers and then it lost me. But the other thing that it didn't mention is that Kim is a sidearmer. Aren't sidearm pitchers considered less injury risk at least for the shoulder as it puts less stress on the shoulder to pitch from the side? I know the guys at BP are big on the arm problems with suddenly increasing the number of innings, so maybe injury concerns play a part in their prognosis.

 

[AZZenny]

However - one of the things BB actually complained about last year (on radio) was that Kim is down there pitching before and after games, playing hard catch, that he probably threw as many as a hundred pitches a day sometimes, to management's great consternation. I just read a similar thing from Garagiola - that the increased pitches don't worry them as long as he stops throwing a hundred extra pitches a day. I guess when he's awake, he pitches. Otherwise he sleeps.

I find this fascinating, because a few years ago I read (in SI maybe?) an article about how old-time pitchers threw many more pitches, on much shorter rest, over many many pro years than almost any modern pitcher could possibly do. The quasi-scientific notion was these were boys who grew up playing ball every single day and throwing constantly, without the fussing and limits of modern little league and school coaching. It either actually developed stronger, more flexible tendons and rotator cuffs, etc., as they matured, or maybe only the rubber arms survived.

 

[Smolder]

um, i read an article on this when i was looking for a website that'd teach me how to throw a slider (i know, lame). anyway, i came across this guy, forgot the name. he allegedly won a cy yound i think, and he's now a professor or something at a university, and he was talking about a new way of teaching pitching. thing is, he said little-league pitching has a horrible effect on arm strength, and it's the main reason why so many tommy johns have to be performed nowadays. just try searching for it, i really can't remember where i saw it.

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by Smolder
um, i read an article on this when i was looking for a website that'd teach me how to throw a slider (i know, lame). anyway, i came across this guy, forgot the name. he allegedly won a cy yound i think, and he's now a professor or something at a university, and he was talking about a new way of teaching pitching. thing is, he said little-league pitching has a horrible effect on arm strength, and it's the main reason why so many tommy johns have to be performed nowadays. just try searching for it, i really can't remember where i saw it.

I assume you're talking about Dr. Mike Marshall

 

[Skkorpion]

Originally posted by schillingfan
But the other thing that it didn't mention is that Kim is a sidearmer. Aren't sidearm pitchers considered less injury risk at least for the shoulder as it puts less stress on the shoulder to pitch from the side? I know the guys at BP are big on the arm problems with suddenly increasing the number of innings, so maybe injury concerns play a part in their prognosis.

I'm a casual baseball fan until the last two years but I remember an interview with the skinny sidearm reliever with the old Pittsburgh Pirates "lumber company" and he made the same point you did about sidearm throws being easier on the shoulder.

Anybody remember his name? I think he died from brain cancer a few years back. But I definitely remember him saying that he threw both over the top and sidearm early in the minors and settled on the "submarine" style because it felt better.

 

[schillingfan]

Kent Tekulve was a submarine pitcher for the Pirates. I don't think he's dead though. He pitched into his 40's.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Today's Kim outing has me wondering. Not so much because he went in as a reliever, but because of the legnth. While most starting pitchers now are going to 5 and even 6 inning stints, Kim has stayed at the same 4 IP in his last 3 appearances. I was hoping to see him stretched out a bit more this time around by going 5 or 6 innings.

Are they holding Kim back to conserve his energy? Are they hesitant to push him a bit? What's the reason behind keeping him at the same 4 IP? I guess we'll know more with his next start, unless somebody has heard a postgame interview that touched on this subject. Any news out there?

 

[AZZenny]

what was his pitch count? For one thing, they wanted to give Miguel a "start" with innings, rather than have him come in midway. Second, if they are considering the option of Kim in set-up/long-relief they want to see that, too. One more thing is, they are still auditioning bullpen guys, of whom they have a plethora, so they have to run them out there now. If by chance Mantei isn't up to snuff in two weeks, I read that Steve Randolph who pitched today is one guy they want to consider.