Kim the starter

[Stallion]

I was at the game yesterday (the 9th inning was tons of fun with the rain and hail) which happened to be Kim's first start of the spring.

BK as a starter was just like BK as a reliever. He's all over the place and the count seemed to be full on every hitter. I read today he threw 40 pithces in his 2 innings of work.

If he can't learn to get batters out without a 6-pitch strikeout, he'll be back in the pen in no time.

But, BK wasn't the only one struggling. The only D-back who stood out was Mark Little who had a couple hits, including a double, and throw out a runner at the plate from CF.

Even in the wind and the rain, there's nothing better than going to the ballpark.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Well he did say he was a lot more noervous than usual since it was his first appearance as a starter.

But if you like to read about the fears of Kim being a starter, here's a Ken Rosenthal article that lays it all out. Maybe if Kim can't get it done in the rotation Chan Ho Park can say a few words to him about the importance of bullpen pitching in MLB compared to Korea.

As for Rosenthal, I wonder how he comes to this revelation that a relief pitcher who averages 16.1 pitches thrown per inning translates into a 5 inning/120 pitch starter? That's some kind of math because even if Kim maintains that somehat high pitch count per inning, that's still 80 or so pitches every 5 innings. I think Rosenthal needs to change that battery in his calculator.

And while I wasn't at the game yesterday, just from looking at the box score, it would seem to me that Brandon Webb had a decent outing when he went 2 1/3 innings and only gave up 1 hit with 2 K and no walks. That's not indicative on how he pitched? FWIW, I saw him in the Arizona Fall League and I was impressed, and can't wait to see him a few times this year with the Sidewinders.

 

[mark1]

I can't wait to see what Webb does for the Sidewinders. Management and the players have raved about the kid.

 

[Stallion]

Yeah, Webb, Mantei and Prinz did just fine out of the pen. Reynoso relieved Kim and was shaky as well--lots of deep counts.

 

[mark1]

In today's game Andrew Good pitched well.
2 IP, no hits, no runs 3 K's. Gosling got knocked around a little, 2 HR's.

Derek,

I know Good had Tommy John in 2000, I think?

Can you give me a scouting report on him? I know he has good control.

The Sidewinder staff of

Webb
Gosling
Villareal
Randolph
Good
Should be outstanding this year.

The bullpen of
Valverde
Ward
Prinz?
Should be outstanding also.

I think Jackson will make the team out of spring training over Prinz, even though Roger Craig said Prinz has the best arm down there. I still can't believe the Twins didn't resign Jackson.

 

[unc84steve]

Originally posted by Stallion
I was at the game yesterday (the 9th inning was tons of fun with the rain and hail) which happened to be Kim's first start of the spring.

BK as a starter was just like BK as a reliever. He's all over the place and the count seemed to be full on every hitter. I read today he threw 40 pithces in his 2 innings of work.

If he can't learn to get batters out without a 6-pitch strikeout, he'll be back in the pen in no time.

So what exactly is wrong with a 6-pitch strikeout?

Byung-Hyun Kim's raw numbers aren't that different that Randy Johnson's
(I typed that when there weren't lightning storm clouds around)

Let him settle down get comfortable & I think he could have a very good season--providing he gets some run & bullpen support.

WARNING: Many stats below that will make eyes glaze over if not induce fainting. To summarize, BK & John Patterson have some very promising basic stats. A 4 HR game at Shea makes JP's 7 HR's in 30.2 IP slightly less worrisome

Several other D'back relievers averaged more than BK's 16.21 pitches/IP in 2002 (Mantei 16.84, Fetters 18.35, Myers 18.86), because IP is based on getting outs.

Rick Helling's rate was 15.92, RJ's 15.37, Miguel Batista 15.18, Brian Anderson 14.93, Mike Koplove 14.56, Curt Schilling 14.36. Even Mark Grace was 12.00 and he wasn't going for K's, was he?

What's exciting is BK's strikeout rate is 9.86 vs RJ's 11.56 & Curt's 10.97 (Patterson 9.10, Helling 6.15, Anderson 4.67, Dessens 4.70)

BK's walk rate is 2.79 (Curt 1.15! BA 1.85, JP 2.05, Helling 2.46, RJ 2.46, Dessens 2.48, Miguel 3.41)

BK's hit rate is 6.86 (RJ 6.82, Curt 7.57, JP 7.92, Miguel 8.38, Dessens 8.75, Helling 9.22, BA 10.04)

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Yep, it was during spring training 3 years ago when Good blew out his elbow and had to have TJ surgery. With his fastball only in the 90 mph range, I think he's the lesser of the prospects in the Sidewinders rotation this year and all reports say that he won't be anything more than a bottom of the rotation starter. I haven't seen him pitch yet, and he's the only one in this season's Sidewinders rotation that I haven't seen, so I can't give you a rundown on his arsenal.

I've already bought a 20 pack of ticket vouchers @$6 each that gets me into the prime seats at TEP for Sidewinders games. I'll probably get at least another 20 pack before the season is over, maybe 2. It sure is nice to be able to go to a Sidwinders game on any given night and see a legitimate pitching prospect on the mound to start the game instead of some of the AAA roster filler they've had the past few years.

 

[mark1]

Derek,

I envy you, being able to see all the Sidewinder games. This mornings Republic said that Chris Capuano is supposed to be at near full strength. I wonder where he is going to start the year out at? The pitching in the minors looks to be crowded, which is a good thing. The infield from El Paso is going to be brought up to the Sidewinders this year so you will get to see alot of good position players also. Tim Olson was second in the AZ fall league in hitting. Womack is in a contract year, so Olson could possibly be our starting shortstop in 2004. I really haven't heard who the Sidewinders project to be in the outfield this year. I would think Luis Terrero would be one of them.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Just thought I'd post this quote from Brenly on Andrew Good after yesterday's game:

"He's a guy right from the beginning of spring training … even throwing side sessions … it's obvious that this is a kid who knows how to pitch," D'backs manager Bob Brenly said of Good. "He's not overpowering ... I think he topped out at 88 (mph) today, which is a major-league average fastball. He's got a tremendous straight change-up. He threw some really good first-pitch curveballs. He just has a real good feel for what he's doing out there on the mound."

This was from an article today over at azstarnet.com

I think the Sidewinders OF will be Doug Devore, Terrero, and maybe somebody like Felix Jose or Mark Little.

 

[Moose Lady]

Do either of you have any thoughts on whether Chad Tracy will be ready for 3rd next year?? Or will they just go with Counsell since Matty won't be back and let Chad have another year or two.

 

[schillingfan]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
I think he topped out at 88 (mph) today, which is a major-league average fastball.

Perhaps its grammatical, but 88 isn't an average fastball for a major leaguer, unless you define topping at at 85 being the bare minimum need to be a quality major league pitcher.

Course I'm kinda biased in favor of the high heaters.

BTW, I see that BK pitched a sterling 4 innings today giving up 1 BB, and 1 H with 2 SO's.

 

[AZZenny]

Kim looked good today. Reynoso looked gawdawful again, and I think he's out of the running now. Miguel is having a weakish Spring so far, but as I recall, he does sometimes. Regarding position players, I really liked Tim Olson in AZ Fall League, and I liked watching him today. Overbay thus far fails to impress.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Perhaps its grammatical, but 88 isn't an average fastball for a major leaguer, unless you define topping at at 85 being the bare minimum need to be a quality major league pitcher.

Well you do have the Tim Wakefields and Jamies Moyers around to skew the average.

Btw, looking at your post, and it's probably from the way the board software handles quotes, but that wasn't a quote from me...that's straight from Brenly.

Just came across this on Kim's performance today....Byung-Hyun Kim needed just 42 pitches to get through four innings today against the Angels.

I'd say that's some kind of good outing! Although it is just one start, it still comes right after his first one where the butterflies may have gotten to him. Nothing would please me more than having Kim succeed as a starter after the DBacks have taken some heat lately in the national press over this "experiment".

 

[mark1]

Originally posted by finleyfanatic
Do either of you have any thoughts on whether Chad Tracy will be ready for 3rd next year?? Or will they just go with Counsell since Matty won't be back and let Chad have another year or two.

We'll see what Tracy does with the Sidewinders this year. If he tears it up like he did with the Diablos last year, they will probably give him a shot at third next spring. The only reason that Tracy slipped to a .344 average last year was because he had a shoulder injury, that's why they shut him down so early in the AZ fall league. Williams and Womack will be off the books after this year, and I feel certain the D-Backs are going to try and cut payroll again next year. Colangelo has been hinting that they will lean more heavily on the minor leagues. If Kata, Olson and Tracy have good years at Tucson this year, I can see a scenario where two of the three make the big club next year. It wouldn't surprise me if the infield next year was Tracy, Olson, Spivey, and Overbay. They would be young and cheap. It will be very interesting following the Sidewinders this year.

 

[schillingfan]

Originally posted by mark1
It wouldn't surprise me if the infield next year was Tracy, Olson, Spivey, and Overbay. They would be young and cheap. It will be very interesting following the Sidewinders this year.

But will they be any good?

My general impression is that the real strength of the D-Backs is in their young pitching, rather than the position players, but that's an impression from afar, of course. And they really need to upgrade their outfield depth.

I think there's no doubt that they are getting younger and cheaper and that is by design and necessity. Remember that for the next 3-5 years they will be paying off all those deferred salaries. I know all in 2001, plus for Curt's 3 year contract all of the salary is deferred.

That feeds into why I think it's essential that they pay Randy Johnson what he wants. With so many young players they will need Randy to keep drawing the crowds in and to keep the youngish, obviously rebuilding team respectable. That's also why I'm would bet money that Curt will be back in Philly once his contract is up if not before.

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by mark1
If Kata, Olson and Tracy have good years at Tucson this year, I can see a scenario where two of the three make the big club next year. It wouldn't surprise me if the infield next year was Tracy, Olson, Spivey, and Overbay.

Tracy looks like Overbay on the other corner with a little more contact ability and a little less patience at the plate.

Olson doesn't look any better than Cintron as a SS option.

I'm afraid that if that is our 2004 infield that we won't be winning a lot of games (even with the same OF and pitching staff)

 

[Dback Jon]

Originally posted by DWKB
Tracy looks like Overbay on the other corner with a little more contact ability and a little less patience at the plate.

Olson doesn't look any better than Cintron as a SS option.

I'm afraid that if that is our 2004 infield that we won't be winning a lot of games (even with the same OF and pitching staff)

That is why I think you will see the Dbacks make a push for Tejada next winter. 30+ HRs and 100+ RBIs would look great from the SS.
Plus Counsell/Tracy - Tejada - Spivey - Overbay would be cheaper than Counsell/Williams - Womack - Spivey - Overbay.

 

[mark1]

Originally posted by Dback Jon
That is why I think you will see the Dbacks make a push for Tejada next winter. 30+ HRs and 100+ RBIs would look great from the SS.
Plus Counsell/Tracy - Tejada - Spivey - Overbay would be cheaper than Counsell/Williams - Womack - Spivey - Overbay.

I would love to see the D-Backs go after somebody like Tejada next year but I don't see it. Tejada will probably command somewhere in the 12-15 million range and the D-Backs won't pay it. Their attendance is dwindling, and with the extentions for Gonzo and Randy, plus all the defered contracts they have, I don't expect them to be any more active in free agency next year then they were this year. The D-Backs love Sergio Santos and Scott Hairston, who should be ready by 2005. Both those guys bring some power to the infield positions.

Like it or not, this team is in for a major overhaul in the next couple years, IMO. They are going to go younger and cheaper. My guess is that they would like to get payroll under the 75 million dollar mark. Our starting rotation should be real good for at least the next couple years, and should sustain this team until the Sidewinder kids are ready.

 

[Dback Jon]

I know this is posted somewhere - but does anyone have a link to what the future salary commitments by the DBacks (including deferrals) are?

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by Dback Jon
I know this is posted somewhere - but does anyone have a link to what the future salary commitments by the DBacks (including deferrals) are?

http://www.bluemanc.demon.co.uk/baseball/mlbcontracts.htm

Close but doesn't look like it's been updated in awhile. Gives you an idea though.

 

[Dback Jon]

Thanks!

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Their(DBacks) attendance is dwindling

Um, no it's not. Last year the Diamondbacks drew 3,035,074. In 2001 the Diamondbacks drew 2,736,451. The only thing that's dwindling are any positive thoughts about the future of the team.

 

[mark1]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
Um, no it's not. Last year the Diamondbacks drew 3,035,074. In 2001 the Diamondbacks drew 2,736,451. The only thing that's dwindling are any positive thoughts about the future of the team.

Thanks for clearing that up. I read, that season ticket sales are down 10% from last year.

I'm very positive about the future of the D-Backs. I like their prospects, and we have an owner that wants to win very badly, and will always try to field a competitive team.

I like the fact that the organization is concentrating on, and trying to build through the farm system. To me that is half the fun of baseball, following the young kids and seeing them develop.

 

[moviegeekjn]

Originally posted by mark1
Thanks for clearing that up. I read, that season ticket sales are down 10% from last year.

You would expect a natural bump up in season tickets the year after winning the World Series... just as you'd expect a decrease in season ticket sales the following year when the team doesn't win the big one...

 

[unc84steve]

Originally posted by schillingfan
That feeds into why I think it's essential that they pay Randy Johnson what he wants. With so many young players they will need Randy to keep drawing the crowds in and to keep the youngish, obviously rebuilding team respectable. That's also why I'm would bet money that Curt will be back in Philly once his contract is up if not before.

Yes & no & maybe.

The club may think it needs Randy Johnson as a drawing card as it rebuilds, but by far the biggest attendance factor is winning the year before and prospects for the coming season (season tickets). The next biggest factor is winning in the current season (walk-up sales).

For example, if RJ's draws an extra 3,00 fans per 16 home starts = 48,000--that is huge. The difference between a great home season & poor one is closer to 500,000--or ten times as much & that's based on a winning vs. a losing season.


Link to D'backs standings & attendance info: year by year

The D'backs need Randy Johnson & Curt Schilling as "drawing cards" because they are "winning cards" (aces).

"Fan favorites" last as long as the team is winning, and are booed after two months of losing. Strangers become new fan favorites when the team wins.

If the team struggles between now & 2004, Curt will become an expensive, loud-mouth "problem" for a rebuilding team. If the team is winning, Curt is a vocal "warrior" who's a bargain.

(Are you betting your 2004 season ticket money on Curt going to Philly?)