Kingsbury's Air Raid

[BritCard]

To add to Daves post. I'm sure K9 or someone will blow this up but this has them at number 6 last year. You don't have the number 6 offense with a lousy HC.

https://www.lineups.com/nfl-team-rankings

This also shows that we were terrible on 3rd downs & TO's.


I found one on ESPN that has us at #6 offense.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team


Another. Only PFF has us at 13.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html


https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/passing/2020/reg/all

Yeah but 6th based on yards, including rushing yards. The PFF article is really about the passing offense. It does say the rushing offense has generally been good, it's passing that it is criticizing.

 

[Krangodnzr]

The reason the Cardinals use so little motion and movement is because Kyler can't read a defense at a high level yet.

We can criticize Kliff, but he is doing what a play caller HAS TO do when he has a young inexperienced QB. Keep it simple in the passing game and make the plays that are there. Unfortunately Kyler hasn't even mastered the basics yet so the offense stays basic.

 

[Krangodnzr]

There's a bunch of stuff there not mentioned here, nor that I believe.

I like our O line, I like our WR's (I liked them enough last year too). In fact I have argued several times that the clamor for new and better WR's was pointless BECAUSE the scheme was the issue, not who is catching the ball.

Plus we are talking about the passing offense here, not the offense as a whole. Maybe it ranked highly overall but as a passing offense it was mediocre.

17th in passing YPG (Teddy Bridgewater had more YPG than Kyler)
16th in passing TD's
15th in passer rating
19th in YPA
19th in DVOA (Total offense, not passing, -2.4%)
16th in EPA

As the PFF article says, it was actually the defense that improved the most last year for those extra wins.

And if you notice based on FA and the draft, Keim doubled down on improving the defense this offseason.

 

[kerouac9]

The thing is, it's not hard to figure out. All the things PFF are saying fans on here have been saying for a while. And if fans can see it DC's must be laughing their asses off.

It's a very basic, unimaginative system with very little misdirection. It's basically "You 4 guys run isolated routes from the same positions every play and hope you beat your man".

It's not based on outsmarting the defense. It relies on the defense messing up.

You’re just articulating a difference in offensive design philosophy. Some coaches have tons and tons of plays; some coaches have a handful of plays that they can run out of a dozen formations.

The air raid is premised on an assumption that in the plays as designed the defense is going to be wrong somewhere. The question is at the NFL level whether the QB will have enough time for them to get wrong.

WR screens are a kind of misdirection. They’re trying to get the defense moving laterally to open up the seams. Unfortunately, undead Larry Fitzgerald was the guy we had to pressure the seam the past 2 years.

I agree that we’ll likely see more 10 personnel groupings as Kliff tries to asset himself this year. What will separate it is that we should have better personnel to run it.

The reason the Cardinals use so little motion and movement is because Kyler can't read a defense at a high level yet.

We can criticize Kliff, but he is doing what a play caller HAS TO do when he has a young inexperienced QB. Keep it simple in the passing game and make the plays that are there. Unfortunately Kyler hasn't even mastered the basics yet so the offense stays basic.

Most people say that a motion man helps a young quarterback because it helps him key on man vs zone. Kurt Warner in particular talks about this.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

This thread is really intriguing, because I hear so much positivity from so many people about this team, and then an article like this is posted and everyone nods their head like "yeah, we all know it's bad."

That's not deep insight on my part, I'm assuming it's just positive folk who are hoping for the best, but... hm.

It's not difficult. All the pieces are there for this team to win and I still expect the roster to be further bolstered.

The only potential fly in the pudding is the coach

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Yeah, i should've qualified my post to note that i wasn't just responding to you, but to the general tenor of the board lately.

You don't have to look far around here to learn that the Cards have the worst GM, a terrible HC with a scheme that will never work in the NFL and an inability to adapt. They had a useless draft and lousy free agency moves, leaving them with an old, overpriced, untalented roster and no hope to compete now or in the future. And let's not forget the incompetent DC and inability to develop players.

Is there some truth to everything above? Sure! Yet the team has improved the last two years and, though it was in disappointing fashion, went 8-8. The stats you posted show that they were average in 2020, and we all want them to be better than that. But the ownership, management, coaching, scheme, and talent can't ALL be terrible relative to the rest of the league.

...dave

That’s why your aggregation of everyone’s opinions into a single frankenASFNer doesn’t hold water. Very few posters hold all of those beliefs at once.

for example: I believe keim and kliff suck ass and I believe our rbs are a weak point and our wrs outside of nuk are retreads or unprovens. But I think our oline is pretty good, our defense is much improved and our QB play (both passing and rushing) can be special. And those three items, with some luck here and there, can mask a lot of those listed shortcomings.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Remind me again if defense & special teams aka kicker also plays apart in wins & losses.

And those aspects of the game don’t count for a head coach?

 

[cardncubfan]

And those aspects of the game don’t count for a head coach?

I'm arguing his offense.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I'm arguing his offense.

Eh you stayed “You don't have the number 6 offense with a lousy HC”

then you wanted to blame losses on defense and special teams. Just tying up loose strings.

 

[BritCard]

Let's not pretend like it's only Kliff's scheme either. His decision making overall leaves a lot to be desired so far.

He has a massive tendency to play conservative football with a late lead, that almost always back fires. Even being narrowly behind he can do it with enough time left. Going for the field goal on the 49 vs Miami after 3 consecutive conservative plays will forever stick in my craw. He should never have been playing for a FG there.

Then there are roster decisions like Streveler as #2 over Hundley. Which I believe cost us the Ram's game.

It's all on Kliff next season. If he fixes his issue's it will be a good year, if not then he's going to hold this roster back again.

 

[Krangodnzr]

lol, the thing is, not everybody believes all those negatives at the same time (Well, probably @Solar7 does)

You get guys that think Keim sucks and the draft sucks but Kliff, FA and the roster are ok.

You get guys that think the roster sucks, FA sucks but the draft was good. So on and so forth, you get the idea.

So if you take the whole board you can probably find 25% of the whole think every area sucks. Just not the same 25% for each.

Personally, I like the draft, but I like most drafts until the rubber hits the road. I like the roster bar CB and TE. I'm ambivalent on Keim because I think we only get Keim lite of some internal nodding dog if he goes so why stress it?

My biggest concern for this year is Kliff and Kyler, mostly Kliff because what Kyler does is really a subset of Kliff's ability. This article isn't wrong. There are some big issues with this passing scheme that need to be resolved for us to be challengers.

What I don't know, and I'm interested to find out, is if Kliff has purposefully been restricting the offense and playing this system to help Kyler adjust or whether this is just his offense exactly how he intends it to be.

I think Kyler is holding the offense back alot, but he also has special qualities that really help the offense.

It's year three, we can expect a major leap forward from the kid.

This is why I don't beat up Kliff that much, I think he is playing with a handicapped deck ATM. I do think his calls in late game situations have been suspect however.

 

[football karma]

What I don't know, and I'm interested to find out, is if Kliff has purposefully been restricting the offense and playing this system to help Kyler adjust or whether this is just his offense exactly how he intends it to be.

this question

my optimistic side says lack of offseason / preseason limited the amount of variation K1 could run off base offense last year.

i have to believe that all the stuff noted by PFF was learned by defensive coordinators looking at the Cards within the first 5 games of 2019, and was well known by the Cardinal coaching staff as well.

I think Kirk and Moore in the slot will help. With Fitz in the slot -- there was no threat of him beating people down the field. Kirk and probably Moore present that threat. Moore should give some RAC ability as well. Kirk is confounding. For such a good return and RAC guy in college -- he avoids contact to the extreme. im not expecting Derek Henry out of him, but the team needs more.

Fun fact: between Kirk and Fitz, they had 102 receptions between them. Number of broken tackles on those 102 catches? 1.


the last thing on the second half of last year was they faced lots of 7 man fronts, but didnt run the ball well. In the first half, they were making teams pay for two high safeties with an extra DB. they averaged ~170 yards a game rushing in the first 9 games (6-3) but only 102 for the last 7. Of those last 7 games, there was only one where they would behind and had to pass (LAR #1) -- every other game was a close game where they could stay balanced. They tried -- but couldnt.

 

[SoonerLou]

I'm a huge Kyler fan, skeptical of Kliff when he was hired. However, I think its Kyler who amplifies the issues. He's short (which is fine if you have a great feel for where everyone is) and doesnt have that elite vision. He also isnt the scramble around and make throws on the run that covered up flaws in the air raid like Mahomes and Manziel.

Basically, Kyler needs to evolve into Russell Wilson.

Its as I said that Kyler was never really a 4 wide guy in college. In fact he struggled with this (albeit a freshman) at Texas A&M in college. However, he wanted Rondale Moore. So maybe he's ready to run the 4 wide offense. And I dont blame Kliff for going down with what he knows.

 

[DVontel]

Let's not pretend like it's only Kliff's scheme either. His decision making overall leaves a lot to be desired so far.

He has a massive tendency to play conservative football with a late lead, that almost always back fires. Even being narrowly behind he can do it with enough time left. Going for the field goal on the 49 vs Miami after 3 consecutive conservative plays will forever stick in my craw. He should never have been playing for a FG there.

Then there are roster decisions like Streveler as #2 over Hundley. Which I believe cost us the Ram's game.

It's all on Kliff next season. If he fixes his issue's it will be a good year, if not then he's going to hold this roster back again.

I dislike Kliff, but it’s kind of amazing you’re blaming that Dolphins loss on anyone but Vance & mostly Zane.

 

[BritCard]

this question

my optimistic side says lack of offseason / preseason limited the amount of variation K1 could run off base offense last year.

i have to believe that all the stuff noted by PFF was learned by defensive coordinators looking at the Cards within the first 5 games of 2019, and was well known by the Cardinal coaching staff as well.

I think Kirk and Moore in the slot will help. With Fitz in the slot -- there was no threat of him beating people down the field. Kirk and probably Moore present that threat. Moore should give some RAC ability as well. Kirk is confounding. For such a good return and RAC guy in college -- he avoids contact to the extreme. im not expecting Derek Henry out of him, but the team needs more.

Fun fact: between Kirk and Fitz, they had 102 receptions between them. Number of broken tackles on those 102 catches? 1.


the last thing on the second half of last year was they faced lots of 7 man fronts, but didnt run the ball well. In the first half, they were making teams pay for two high safeties with an extra DB. they averaged ~170 yards a game rushing in the first 9 games (6-3) but only 102 for the last 7. Of those last 7 games, there was only one where they would behind and had to pass (LAR #1) -- every other game was a close game where they could stay balanced. They tried -- but couldnt.

I hope this is the case. There are some things that make me skeptical. For example, there no reason we can't use more motion and move guys around. These things help Kyler so I can't see any reason to play the way we do.

Which makes me believe that this is just how Kliff is, which is concerning.

 

[BritCard]

I dislike Kliff, but it’s kind of amazing you’re blaming that Dolphins loss on anyone but Vance & mostly Zane.

Oh there's blame to go around, especially Vance. But Kliff played his part. He had that game in his grasp and the option to kill it off and seal the win. Instead he played 3 poor downs thinking a 49 yard FG was automatic.

Even if we make that kick the Fins would have tied it up with a FG of their own.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Oh there's blame to go around, especially Vance. But Kliff played his part. He had that game in his grasp and the option to kill it off and seal the win. Instead he played 3 poor downs thinking a 49 yard FG was automatic.

Even if we make that kick the Fins would have tied it up with a FG of their own.

yup. Case in point of a GOOD coach in that situation was the Buffalo game against us. Late In the fourth, less than two minutes to go, Down 3, they marched into FG range pretty easy. Did they then raise the white flag and settle for a long field goal? No, they kept attacking and instead of a FG to tie they scored a TD to take the lead with the 20 seconds left that would have won them the game if not for us pulling out a miracle on the last play.

Kliff was down 3, the offense was rolling all second half, was doing so again getting to the 30 yard line and then he just sat on the ball. No plays downfield. He settled for a long FG with a shaky FG kicker and didn’t even grind clock out to make sure the Dolphins wouldn’t have had time left to go back down and end the game in regulation anyway.

that was a total team loss and our HC getting conservative and laying up for a tie with a long FG instead of going for the jugular contributed to it.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm a huge Kyler fan, skeptical of Kliff when he was hired. However, I think its Kyler who amplifies the issues. He's short (which is fine if you have a great feel for where everyone is) and doesnt have that elite vision. He also isnt the scramble around and make throws on the run that covered up flaws in the air raid like Mahomes and Manziel.

Basically, Kyler needs to evolve into Russell Wilson.

Its as I said that Kyler was never really a 4 wide guy in college. In fact he struggled with this (albeit a freshman) at Texas A&M in college. However, he wanted Rondale Moore. So maybe he's ready to run the 4 wide offense. And I dont blame Kliff for going down with what he knows.

I think you're overreading this. Guys support the dudes they see/know. IMO, this is 100% more about him working out at EOS or whatever the training center is than anything else.

 

[SoonerLou]

The reason the Cardinals use so little motion and movement is because Kyler can't read a defense at a high level yet.

We can criticize Kliff, but he is doing what a play caller HAS TO do when he has a young inexperienced QB. Keep it simple in the passing game and make the plays that are there. Unfortunately Kyler hasn't even mastered the basics yet so the offense stays basic.

https://sports.yahoo.com/pre-snap-motion-helps-nfl-154848167.html

 

[Solar7]

lol, the thing is, not everybody believes all those negatives at the same time (Well, probably @Solar7 does)

You get guys that think Keim sucks and the draft sucks but Kliff, FA and the roster are ok.

You get guys that think the roster sucks, FA sucks but the draft was good. So on and so forth, you get the idea.

So if you take the whole board you can probably find 25% of the whole think every area sucks. Just not the same 25% for each.

Personally, I like the draft, but I like most drafts until the rubber hits the road. I like the roster bar CB and TE. I'm ambivalent on Keim because I think we only get Keim lite of some internal nodding dog if he goes so why stress it?

My biggest concern for this year is Kliff and Kyler, mostly Kliff because what Kyler does is really a subset of Kliff's ability. This article isn't wrong. There are some big issues with this passing scheme that need to be resolved for us to be challengers.

What I don't know, and I'm interested to find out, is if Kliff has purposefully been restricting the offense and playing this system to help Kyler adjust or whether this is just his offense exactly how he intends it to be.

I mean, I guess I'm close to feeling like all of those things are that way, but not really.

I think Keim can't draft but credit him for being very solid with trades.
I think the draft might net some alright players but overall was misguided at the top, solid later on.
I think Kliff sucks but will get a chance to be an NFL OC and will have some strong years when he can just focus on refining his offensive scheme and not the things that come with being HC.
I think FA acquired some okay players, some terrible ones, and getting Hudson was great, and understand to some degree our approach was hamstrung by a pandemic. But it's very old and not all of those guys will hold up.

All in all, I think both the short term and long term future of this franchise feels very much like it's treading water. With the current personnel, coaching, and strategy, we'll be somewhere between 6-11 and 10-7 (did I do that right? 17 games hurting my brain) every year. Just barely enough to hunt for a wild card and first round exit.

 

[football karma]

I hope this is the case. There are some things that make me skeptical. For example, there no reason we can't use more motion and move guys around. These things help Kyler so I can't see any reason to play the way we do.

Which makes me believe that this is just how Kliff is, which is concerning.

weird thing: they used motion in 2019 quite a bit

Pre-snap motion has given the Ravens an edge. Why don't more teams use it? (espn.com)

this says that through week 13 or so in 2019, the Cards were 7th overall in terms of motion at the snap

why did they go away from it? (and this doesnt support my "lack of offseason" theory)

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

remind me... are wins and losses decided by offensive yards at the end? Or points?



In 2005 our offense was ranked #8 in the league in yards. Our defense was ranked 8th in the league in yards. Our record was 5-11. Our Head Coach was a lousy Dennis Green. Bottom line, the yardage stats can be deceiving and are in no way proof your coach is good.



it’s even more meaningless when the offense isn’t scoring points commensurate with gaining those yards.

last time I looked, that’s how games are decided. Not by gaining more yards, but by having more points than the other team. We rank 14th in ppg last year. We ranked 16th the year before that.

mediocre numbers for offense. Just barely above league average.

Sure points are what matters, but it takes yards to get points. This team was exceptional for most of last season in the red zone, but fell off later on. We will see if they can get back to early season form this year.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I mean, I guess I'm close to feeling like all of those things are that way, but not really.

I think Keim can't draft but credit him for being very solid with trades.
I think the draft might net some alright players but overall was misguided at the top, solid later on.
I think Kliff sucks but will get a chance to be an NFL OC and will have some strong years when he can just focus on refining his offensive scheme and not the things that come with being HC.
I think FA acquired some okay players, some terrible ones, and getting Hudson was great, and understand to some degree our approach was hamstrung by a pandemic. But it's very old and not all of those guys will hold up.

All in all, I think both the short term and long term future of this franchise feels very much like it's treading water. With the current personnel, coaching, and strategy, we'll be somewhere between 6-11 and 10-7 (did I do that right? 17 games hurting my brain) every year. Just barely enough to hunt for a wild card and first round exit.

You say Keim sucks and Kliff sucks and yet the team was on fire through the first half of the season and squandered away a playoff position.

Both of those statements CAN'T be fully true. There is much more nuance to it.

I think Keim is largely decent in free agency and mostly robs teams in trades. His draft record is uneven; he has had some notable hits and quite a few misses.

Kingsbury has been good at times, and the numbers largely demonstrate that the Cardinals have a good offense. But he has had some notable gaffes. What we don't know is how much the issues they have at times are related to talent (Keim), inexperience (Kyler), or coaching (Kliff).

My thing is I think Kyler is the reason the passing game is lagging. I think the mental aspect of the game and his shortcomings at throwing intermediate routes really hurts this team. Teams figured out to play seven man fronts with all the linebackers and safeties clogging the shallow routes and force Kyler to either beat them on intermediate throws. The deep shots werent there because teams often brought pressure.

It's hard to scheme against that; Kyler has to be able to take what the defense is giving him and make them pay for playing those schemes against him.

 

[BritCard]

I mean, I guess I'm close to feeling like all of those things are that way, but not really.

I think Keim can't draft but credit him for being very solid with trades.
I think the draft might net some alright players but overall was misguided at the top, solid later on.
I think Kliff sucks but will get a chance to be an NFL OC and will have some strong years when he can just focus on refining his offensive scheme and not the things that come with being HC.
I think FA acquired some okay players, some terrible ones, and getting Hudson was great, and understand to some degree our approach was hamstrung by a pandemic. But it's very old and not all of those guys will hold up.

All in all, I think both the short term and long term future of this franchise feels very much like it's treading water. With the current personnel, coaching, and strategy, we'll be somewhere between 6-11 and 10-7 (did I do that right? 17 games hurting my brain) every year. Just barely enough to hunt for a wild card and first round exit.

I was just kidding. You kinda have a reputation now

You are our E

weird thing: they used motion in 2019 quite a bit

Pre-snap motion has given the Ravens an edge. Why don't more teams use it? (espn.com)

this says that through week 13 or so in 2019, the Cards were 7th overall in terms of motion at the snap

why did they go away from it? (and this doesnt support my "lack of offseason" theory)

I noticed it in Kirk's stats too. He had 10 carries off (off sweeps I assume) at 9.7 YPA in 2019. He had 2 in 2020 at 1.5 YPA.

I don't know why they would move away from something that netter 9.5 YPA the year before.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You say Keim sucks and Kliff sucks and yet the team was on fire through the first half of the season and squandered away a playoff position.

Both of those statements CAN'T be fully true. There is much more nuance to it.

I think Keim is largely decent in free agency and mostly robs teams in trades. His draft record is uneven; he has had some notable hits and quite a few misses.

Kingsbury has been good at times, and the numbers largely demonstrate that the Cardinals have a good offense. But he has had some notable gaffes. What we don't know is how much the issues they have at times are related to talent (Keim), inexperience (Kyler), or coaching (Kliff).

My thing is I think Kyler is the reason the passing game is lagging. I think the mental aspect of the game and his shortcomings at throwing intermediate routes really hurts this team. Teams figured out to play seven man fronts with all the linebackers and safeties clogging the shallow routes and force Kyler to either beat them on intermediate throws. The deep shots werent there because teams often brought pressure.

It's hard to scheme against that; Kyler has to be able to take what the defense is giving him and make them pay for playing those schemes against him.

5-3 = “on fire” ??? With losses to the lions and panthers?

ironically I think kylers ability to run has masked a lot of kliffs and other players deficiencies. Wasn’t a mistake that we couldn’t do crap when his rushing disappeared. See? Not so difficult to come up with a reason why keim and kliff can fail but the team can have some success.