Kingsbury's Air Raid

[WisconsinCard]

The reason the Cardinals use so little motion and movement is because Kyler can't read a defense at a high level yet.

We can criticize Kliff, but he is doing what a play caller HAS TO do when he has a young inexperienced QB. Keep it simple in the passing game and make the plays that are there. Unfortunately Kyler hasn't even mastered the basics yet so the offense stays basic.

I agree with this take, but it makes me question, why did it take so long to get the plays in?

If we get to the LOS faster his headset is still working and KK could be in his ear telling him what to read from the defense. Ala McVay and Goff.

 

[football karma]

We’ve played the niners 22 times in two seasons?!? How did I miss so many?!!

22 games on film of the Cardinal offense

what i am pushing back on is this idea that the offensive issues during the last 7 games of the season were due to DC's figuring out Kliffs offense

they all figured it out at once? my take is that if Kliffs tendencies & system are all that simple, DCs would have figured it out in three games of film.

 

[BritCard]

if Kliffs scheme is really that simple and predictable, do you think it took (as an example) a well regarded DC like Robert Saleh 22 or so games to figure it out

Scheme is only one part of the equation. It's still a sport. It's still humans competing and sometimes ours will win.

But the scheme helps or hinders and currently it's the latter.

 

[QuebecCard]

Yeah, no. Sorry, but if you need 3 years as a head coach to adapt your system to the NFL, you've been given 3 years longer than you deserve.

It's not adapting the system, it's players adapting to the system.

And, according to many observers, it takes two seasons for a QB and others to assimilate the system and that long for a QB to adjust to the defensive counterpoints.

Ergo: year three is when things should come together.

 

[football karma]

more on 4th down aggressiveness on Kliff from FO: ( Aggressiveness Index 2020 | Football Outsiders )



Aggressiveness Index comes out with Kliff Kingsbury of Arizona as the most aggressive head coach of 2020, at least when compared to historical averages. Kingsbury's AI of 3.12 is the second highest ever measured, trailing only John Harbaugh's 3.95 in 2019. Doug Pederson's AI of 2.64 is the third highest ever measured. 11 of the 20 historical seasons over 2.0 (minimum 60 opportunities) have taken place since 2018.

Matt LaFleur of Green Bay went for it the most often on qualifying fourth downs, 25% of the time. However, Kingsbury finishes No. 1 in AI because of some very unexpected go for it decisions in fourth-and-mediums. Four times, Kingsbury had Arizona go for it on fourth down with 3 or more to go before the fourth quarter while losing by less than 10 points. He also went for a fourth-and-12 in Week 13 from the Rams 40 while losing by 10, and a fourth-and-4 from the Washington 37 in Week 2 in the third quarter of a game Arizona was winning.

Kingsbury is a surprising No. 1 in AI because he is not judged kindly by WPA-based measures of fourth-down aggressiveness. He went for it a lot, with a league-leading 21 fourth-down gos that qualified for AI. But those were balanced out by some egregious errors, in particular the decision to have Zane Gonzalez try a 49-yard field goal with 1:58 left, losing to Miami by 3 in Week 9. Both the EdjSports model and Ben Baldwin's model had this as the worst fourth-down mistake of the season, and that counts a lot more in a WPA-based measure than it does in Aggressiveness Index, where every decision has the same weight.

 

[iLLmatiC]

He’s still in the process of adapting his system to the NFL. This should be the year a lot of aspects of it finally click especially with full off-season IMO. End of story

How long are we going to make this argument for?

 

[Hoodhero]

I like K2 & coaching staff but it's all about results now. The blood is in the water & the sharks are coming if we don't make playoffs. Air Raid or Run Raid, it don't matter at this point. Got to find a way to win at end of the day. Also for the love of baby Jesus can K2 not go kamikaze on 4th down this season.

 

[football karma]

Yeah, no. Sorry, but if you need 3 years as a head coach to adapt your system to the NFL, you've been given 3 years longer than you deserve.

Kliff has his flaws, but his scheme has produced the 13th and 18th ranked offenses (DVOA from Football Outsiders ..i.e. adjusted for quality of defense faced)

im not happy with middle third of the NFL, but there are teams like Pitt, the Giants, Denver, etc who have OCs with long time NFL experience and have finished worse than that each year

 

[FB94]

Red zone was better last year. Just cut down on the penalties and make your third and fourth and ones, especially at the goal line they will be better. Defensively need to get stops after we score and not allow long time consuming drives in the fourth quarter and allow a lead change with not a lot of time on the clock. Oh yea, make clutch FGs

 

[Cardsfan77]

How long are we going to make this argument for?

Personally I wouldn’t make it past next season. I think that should be ample time

 

[CardNots]

Kliff has his flaws, but his scheme has produced the 13th and 18th ranked offenses (DVOA from Football Outsiders ..i.e. adjusted for quality of defense faced)

for a young coach with zero prior NFL coaching experience, put me in the impressed box

still a NFL head coach after 5 years? even money

 

[Stout]

Kliff has his flaws, but his scheme has produced the 13th and 18th ranked offenses (DVOA from Football Outsiders ..i.e. adjusted for quality of defense faced)

im not happy with middle third of the NFL, but there are teams like Pitt, the Giants, Denver, etc who have OCs with long time NFL experience and have finished worse than that each year

Ranked offenses has exactly what to do with wins? It's a pretty meaningless stat and, on top of that, we're to be thrilled with average to below average offense, let alone low win totals? But, hey, those flaws aren't fatal ones. Oh, wait...worst in the league in penalties, or close to it, coaches like a turtle late in games, has no concept of clock management and situational football...nah, nothing to worry about. Those are issues that aren't explained away by growing pains, or system complexity, or anything else people are using to give him a massive break. Those are the basics, and he doesn't do them well, to put it kindly.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Ranked offenses has exactly what to do with wins? It's a pretty meaningless stat and, on top of that, we're to be thrilled with average to below average offense, let alone low win totals? But, hey, those flaws aren't fatal ones. Oh, wait...worst in the league in penalties, or close to it, coaches like a turtle late in games, has no concept of clock management and situational football...nah, nothing to worry about. Those are issues that aren't explained away by growing pains, or system complexity, or anything else people are using to give him a massive break. Those are the basics, and he doesn't do them well, to put it kindly.

I had forgotten about the penalties. Ugh.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

Especially considering that KK was stuck with the bargain bin when recruiting in Texas.

You're 100% right on that, he got bottom of the barrel leftovers on defense after Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor got the best ones. Never had a good DC there either. Was the bad DC thing all on KK? Maybe? I suppose he hired the one he wanted? Or maybe he just thought the defense wasn't as important & could out score most teams? Maybe this is why Keim & Bidwill hired his DC for him? They realized he knows offense so concentrate on that only & we'll figure out the defensive part for you. He called plays better in 2019 than he did in 2020 & it isn't even close imo, regardless of the record in both years. I want him to be a head coach & hold all his coordinators responsible. He needs to get better at game management, clock situations & when to call timeouts. I do know this much, when Mike Leach was the HC at TT the defense wasn't setting the Big 12 on fire but it was way better than the defense KK used. Again, is that part all on KK? The NFL is totally different, he no longer has to recruit, he has players now on defense, he needs to get on VJ if they're not performing & be a head coach. Not just sit beside KM the whole time the defense is on the field trying to figure out the problems on offense.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

Yeah I don't see the "this team has lots of holes!" argument. It's just not true.

Even RG has a known quantity in Justin Murray there. I'd argue the biggest hole is CB2, and even then Byron Murphy can play there and Jace Whitaker or one of the safeties can play the slot.

TE maybe, but even then, Maxx Williams is there and he is a plus blocker.

Maxx is a plus blocker but it's frustrating because he is always hurt.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

22 games on film of the Cardinal offense

what i am pushing back on is this idea that the offensive issues during the last 7 games of the season were due to DC's figuring out Kliffs offense

they all figured it out at once? my take is that if Kliffs tendencies & system are all that simple, DCs would have figured it out in three games of film.

Not sure what DC's have figured out about the KK offense but I do know this much. His tendencies were figured out in 2020. His play calling was way better in 2019 with mis direction, gadget plays & using more 11 & 12 personnel. He needs to go back & look at the plays called in 2019 when they won 3 games in a row. Yes, those weren't great teams but the play calls were better. They also ran for the sticks it seemed. Maybe with an improved OL in 2020 they can run longer routes?

 

[BullheadCardFan]

How many times was there a play designed for 3 yards when we needed 7?

Or routes run short of the sticks?

It seemed like a lot

Other teams throw to the sticks or beyond

It was very frustrating to watch

 

[football karma]

Ranked offenses has exactly what to do with wins? It's a pretty meaningless stat and, on top of that, we're to be thrilled with average to below average offense, let alone low win totals?

in a thread titled "Kingsbury's Air Raid" -- how Kliffs scheme has done is relevant, especially building off of a historically bad offense in 2018.

the scheme can be better, but im saying that the scheme isnt why they didnt make the playoffs last year -- which is kinda what you are saying too.

 

[ajcardfan]

I had forgotten about the penalties. Ugh.

The one I remember the most was the Simmons personal foul on Cam Newton late in the Patriots game. Got them into position for a FG and we lost. And, Newton had had one of his worse games ever. And our season turned south on a dime. After that game, the team looked tense and handled the pressure pretty poorly.


I truly think reducing penalties should be the priority for Kliff. We would've been much more dynamic last year if we had been a top 5 team in least penalties. How many promising looking drives went bad due to penalties? IDK, but it seemed like a bunch. Two or three in a game or even a half.

 

[SoonerLou]

I've said it from the beginning, but Kliff has to figure out a way to establish run action from under center. We play in a division where McVay/Shannahan manufacture a lot of yards from average QBs(now replaced or going to be replaced)

We can still do the 4 wide thing, but we've got to be a threat to run from under center. We've got to be able to have LBs bite so we can give Kyler those open throwing windows over the middle and more deep shots down the field.

He's just not good enough (yet) to just drop back and pick a team apart. And honestly our playcalling (at least under Tom Clements) wasnt inventive enough to threaten the defense with the passing game.

Maybe Hudson at center allows for that to happen.