Kirilenko and big man updates

[elindholm]

I posted last years number because that is what you posted for James Jones. Consider that the majority of his career he has been a +35% three point shooter and the fact that he shot 43% last year, I can say with great confidence that he will shoot well enough, especially if he is on the Suns.

Okay, let's try this again.

A reasonable projection for Giricek's 3FG% would be 37%. That is his career number, and if you look at his stats, there is no clear trend one way or another. As I already pointed out, coming to the Suns improves overall offensive productivity but has not, historically, improved three-point percentage.

Jones shot 38% last year from long range, and most of this board was -- and continues to be -- beside itself with how unspeakably awful that was. Now, I personally think that 38% three-point shooting is pretty good, but I've grown tired of being the last defender of James Jones on this board, so forget it.

The point is, it is completely unrealistic, and absolutely not supported by the numbers, to believe that Giricek would be a better three-point shooter with the Suns than Jones was last year. Was Jones good enough? If your answer is no, then you'd better not count on Giricek.

Regardless, it is not like Giricek is the centerpiece of the deal, and anything he would contribute would be gravy.

I agree. I originally brought up his three-point shooting because I thought 37% was pretty good, but then I'm the oddball who thought that Jones's 38% was fine too.

If the Suns medical staff, who has an excellent reputation thinks that Kirilenko is worth the risk, I would definitely make the move. It is almost a lock that Marion will be gone in 2 years, and Kirilenko seems like a more valuable weapon against the Spurs than Marion, which is all that matters at this point anyway.

I agree on all counts.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Coro's new blog:
http://www.azcentral.com/members/User/paulcoro

Still searching


The Suns do not have to officially report until Oct. 1 so there are still plenty of big man shopping days remaining as Phoenix continues to look for the right fit in a 13th man.
This week, they have taken a free look at Rodney White, the former Nugget and Warrior who has been out of the league the past two seasons. He paid his own way to come in and play in Phoenix's informal games.

White, 27, has been impressive and probably needs to be after being known for inconsistent effort and unfulfilled potential. At 6 feet 9 and 230 pounds, White mostly played at small forward in the NBA. But if he found a way to stick in Phoenix, he would take that versatile inside-outside offensive game to the four spot. He was a career 31.4 percent three-point shooter in the NBA. Signing White would not address the cries for a classic big man. The reviews on his defense and rebounding were mixed, especially in the context of being the 2001 draft's No. 9 overall pick. He has spent the past two seasons in Spain and Italy.

On Thursday, the Suns may be taking a look at the final big man candidate they need to see. Brian Skinner will visit along with swingmen Yaroslav Korolev and Richie Frahm.

Some more slices of orange:

* Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa are back on the practice court after their trip to China last week with Alando Tucker for the Nash-Yao charity game. Tucker is now in New York with D.J. Strawberry for the league's rookie orientation program.

* Amare Stoudemire, back in the gym after a coach-mandated break, will be making his own trip to China next week for an endorsement deal with Inner Mongolian milk producer Manging Dairy Group. That's the official dairy product of the NBA in China. Seriously, it is.

* Back on the big man thing, have you noticed how the candidate list is shrinking? Elton Brown, here for a workout last week, signed with the Lakers. Malik Allen, who Phoenix was very much interested in checking out, took a partially guaranteed deal with New Jersey. Reports from abroad indicate Esteban Batista could end up in Boston. And even before things got serious, Alexander Johnson (who intrigued Phoenix before the 2006 draft) signed last month with Miami.

* There will be a Steve Nash Celebrity Roast on Oct. 12 at the Hotel Valley Ho. Tickets are $1,500 a pop so all those Nash haters should be happy to come and help the Steve Nash Foundation, which will use all proceeds to benefit Arizona youth with educational programs. Plus, John Legend is performing live. Call 1-877-341-NASH for tickets.

* This non-Sun-but-somewhat-Suns-related mention comes at the risk of infuriating those who don't want to hear of any Marion-for-AK47 talk. But as you diehards probably already noticed, Andrei Kirilenko was the Eurobasket 2007 MVP as he (along with Benetton Treviso's latest American coach, David Blatt, and "citizen" and former Bucknell Bison J.R. Holden) led Russia to a title game upset of reigning world champion Spain. Only Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker, Hedo Turkoglu and Pau Gasol averaged more points per game than Kirilenko's 18.0 average. He also averaged 8.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.8 blocks and 1.0 Utah Jazz rips per game. He was at it again this week, writing of a trade request in his blog, as was translated here by the Salt Lake Tribune:
www.sltrib.com/Sports/ci_6937904


* And while we're at it, let's address what seems to be a frequent mention out there that Marion would sulk this season because he is not going to get a $20-million-a-year extension (a number often heard in the league's inner circles but has not been confirmed by the Marion camp). The logic here says that Marion would actually play like a man in a contract year if he truly believes that he could exercise his early termination option next summer. And then if he stayed for his paltry $17.8 million salary in 2008-09, well, there is another contract year.

It is very feasible that we might see another slight slip in Marion's numbers if Stoudemire continues to rebound like he did late last season and Grant Hill is as effective offensively as the Suns believe he will be. But he'll still be a hero to every one of his fantasy basketball owners around the nation.

The trade debate seems to always bring up the idea that Marion is not a playoff performer. Not fair. Does he always play great and clutch in the playoffs? Heavens no. Should the team's highest paid player do so? Maybe. But the playoff criticisms should not come with such a broad brush. How about the 2006 playoffs? The Suns are one and done without his tap-out rebound to set up Tim Thomas' heroics. He scored 30 or more points in Games 3, 5, 6 and 7 against the Clippers (Phoenix won three of those games). In 2005, Marion helped close out Dallas with 38 and 16 in Game 6 on the road.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

i thought of this too. but really, who on the suns would he guard? nash? if parker ate him alive, then nash would do the same if not worse. and if parker can hide out on marion on defense, then nash could too. i dont think he is that good when he isnt in the run 'n' gun system

Tony Parker never ever guarded Marion in the playoffs. Why is that one person said "I thought this" and it suddenly became fact despite it's numerous debunkings.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I must be the only guy that would hate to see Marion traded to a conference contender with the chance that we'd see him in the playoffs.

Nope I am right there with you. I remember last time we traded a good player to a conference rival for a "great role player" and added pieces.

 

[SunsTzu]

Now, I personally think that 38% three-point shooting is pretty good, but I've grown tired of being the last defender of James Jones on this board, so forget it.

I'm with you on this, I just got tired of the argument the days following the draft.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

and Kirilenko seems like a more valuable weapon against the Spurs than Marion, which is all that matters at this point anyway.

Was it the 9 PPG he averaged in the playoffs against the Spurs that convinced you of this? He averages 12 PPG for his career

Maybe it was the 41.7% shooting?

Or the 4.6 rebounds?

Or the 2.2 assists?

Or the 1.6 blocks?


Kirilenko is 5 times the choker against the Spurs that Marion ever was. Why do people keep saying he is good against the Spurs? He freaking sucks in the entire playoffs, let alone the Spurs.

Just for fun I compared Kirilenko's Spurs series against Kurt Thomas.

KT: 9.7 PPG 49% shooting 6.3 rebounds 1.5 Assists 1.2 blocks. Better stats in 8 less minutes a game.

 

[jandaman]

So here's basically the dilemma.

Marion stays, doesnt opt out after next season, he does demand a 4 year/70 Million dollar contract extension. The Suns say no, he plays hard the following year anyways. Then he becomes UFA, and still demands that same amount, Suns still say no. Another team picks him up. Suns lose out on an All-Star player for nothing. Unless Diaw and Barbosa becomes the semi-stars at least, the Suns get nothing.

I suppose, the only thing that would ease that thought or scenario is if the Suns manages to win a ring in the enxt 2 seasons.

But looking at the scenarios, I think the Suns really do need to play this uptempo high octane offense to perfection... not near perfection or close to... but perfection this season to win it all. The line-up is tiny in comparison to the other elite teams. Nothing to slow down the running (apparently Thomas did), so literally, the Suns need to play the small ball high tempo style to perfection. Now whats the chances of "perfect" occuring? Not sure, but Nash-Bell-Hill-Marion-Stoudemire-Barbosa-Diaw. That is the 7 man rotation that needs to get it done, an injury to anyone there... and its over. No Tim Thomas on the market to come in as a FA and fit into the system straight away and contribute.... nada.

So you are Sarver and Kerr's assistant/advisor... what do you do?.

Take the gamble and hope "perfect" happens this season... or you give your team another 2-3 year window after this season hanging around the top 4-5 teams in the league and hopefully get lucky in trades and star FA wanting to play for little money... which isn't an unlikely scenario. 50/50 chance of occuring.


I say keep Marion... with my fingers crossed that Diaw transforms from passive good player to passive very good player... Barbosa reach All-Star status and become a good defender... and Stoudemire finally becomes a full-fledge BIG man and not only dominate in the offensive side, but be a decent anchor at the very least in the defensive end.

 

[nowagimp]

By the way, I don't think much of Giricek, but he is a career 37% three-point shooter. That's enough to keep defenses honest. With Barbosa and Bell the only true three-point threats now (Nash shoots them well but doesn't take many), the Suns could use another long-range gunner.

Bell 205 3pters made, barbs 190 made, Nash 156 made.

Still Nash was 11th in the NBA is 3pters made and #2 in percentage(#1 with over 300 attempts). I agree that another 3 pt shooter wouldnt hurt, but giricek is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, makes Nash look like prince. If the suns traded for a healthy AK, maybe AK could guard his AND giriceks man.

 

[playstation]

makes Nash look like prince.

i'm picturing nash singing 'purple rain' right after they win a title. i think he could pull it off

 

[nowagimp]

Tony Parker never ever guarded Marion in the playoffs. Why is that one person said "I thought this" and it suddenly became fact despite it's numerous debunkings.

Marion also did a credible job on parker most of the time in this years playoffs. Parker shredded bell when he switched over when marion sat. One problem that any sun had guarding parker was all the picks the spurs set. A good defensive team adjusts and helps on the picks, some may have been moving, some not. But when oberto back picks marion and his teammates stand mute and watch, whos responsibility is that? You wont see the pistons watch tayshaun get picked and stand there and watch without calling the pick or helping out on defense. The suns help defense is one of the worst in the league, and its not because of marion who is a good help defender. That said, AK is a great help defender.

 

[nowagimp]

i'm picturing nash singing 'purple rain' right after they win a title. i think he could pull it off

OK tayshaun prince!

 

[HooverDam]

No Tim Thomas on the market to come in as a FA and fit into the system straight away and contribute.... nada.

I disagree with this very much. First off, we all know that the Birdman (who I think most of us agree would be a good fit here) will be available mid way through the year. But lets say the Suns aren't interested because of his off the court issues, thats not to say that some player somewhere could have a falling out with his team like Tim Thomas did. Its WAY too early to be saying there won't be some valuable player cut, or available by some other means midway through the season.

If any of these Marion for AK47 deals happens, I'm going to puke. Marion is easily twice the player that AK47 is. Diaw's numbers are comparable and his salary is much less. Who cares if Marion walks in two years if the Suns have a ring or two, and how do we know he will? I don't feel super great about trading a multiple time All Star on the hunch that he might leave down the road.

I think the best thing to do (and coincidentally, I also think this is whats going to happen) is keep Marion and sign Brian Skinner. Skinner can to some degree fill the role KT had last year. The Suns are also looking at additional swing men, so maybe one of them can fill the James Jones role, or perhaps that can be filled by Alando Tucker. Plus, this years team has Grant Hill, and there isn't a comparable player to him on last years roster. Adding to all that, there's still that slight chance that the Suns sign PJ Brown at some point.

I think its pretty hard to argue that:

Nash,Bell, LB, Diaw, Hill, AK47, Millsap, Giricek, Amare > Nash, Bell, LB, Diaw, Hill, Marion, Amare, Skinner, PJ Brown/F.A. swingman.

Even with out that last piece, I'll take those final 8 over the other 9 because Marion is so superior to AK in every way and he's never hurt.

Furthermore, I'm not sure if this has been talked about too much, but why would the Jazz do this deal? It makes no sense for them. They love Millsap, Giricek seems to fit in there very well too. They are going to do it just because AK is whining? Well then, I guess Kobe's going to be playing somewhere else too. Jerry Sloan is no dummy, he knows that a guy like Shawn Marion would most likely flounder, and complain in his system, even though he'd be playing his preferred SF position.

 

[elindholm]

I think its pretty hard to argue that:

Nash,Bell, LB, Diaw, Hill, AK47, Millsap, Giricek, Amare > Nash, Bell, LB, Diaw, Hill, Marion, Amare, Skinner, PJ Brown/F.A. swingman.

Wait a minute. Why do Skinner and Brown magically fall out of the picture if a Kirilenko trade goes through?

 

[jandaman]

yeah, if anything, Suns free up a few Million dollars to sign or offer PJ more money to come out of retirement plans.

 

[playstation]

i'd take millsap over skinner now, much less in the future.

i think millsap's potential is precisely what would keep that deal from happening. that guy is going to be pretty damn good, like double-double good imo.

it comes down to marions defense in the playoffs vs AK's. it comes down to stuff you can't capture on a stat sheet...

when you add in marion's contract situation, i think with an AK+millsap package offered, you take it. but you're also right in that utah is not offering that package.

 

[Chaplin]

Everyone keeps throwing out Millsap's name without one good reason as to why the Jazz would want to include him in a deal.

 

[HooverDam]

Wait a minute. Why do Skinner and Brown magically fall out of the picture if a Kirilenko trade goes through?

Im sorry, you're right, they dont....even still, I'd rather keep Marion. 20/10 guys that fit a very specific system and never get hurt just don't grow on trees.

And like Chaplin said, I just dont see Utah throwing in Millsap, much less having any reason to go after Marion.

 

[fordronken]

Everyone keeps throwing out Millsap's name without one good reason as to why the Jazz would want to include him in a deal.

Because they're getting rid of a disgruntled, highly paid player who sulks and doesn't fit their team very well, and getting back one of the top five small forwards in the NBA.

 

[HooverDam]

Because they're getting rid of a disgruntled, highly paid player who sulks and doesn't fit their team very well, and getting back one of the top five small forwards in the NBA.

Who sulks and doesn't fit their team very well.

 

[fordronken]

Who sulks and doesn't fit their team very well.

Seriously? Kirilenko. Wasn't that the whole point of this renewed speculation?

 

[HooverDam]

Seriously? Kirilenko. Wasn't that the whole point of this renewed speculation?

Huh?

Im saying Marion is a known sulker, who doesn't fit the Jazz very well. I don't see why they would want Marion, true he's like a better version of AK47, but Im not sure the Jazz, in an ideal world, want any version of AK47.

 

[fordronken]

Huh?

Im saying Marion is a known sulker, who doesn't fit the Jazz very well. I don't see why they would want Marion, true he's like a better version of AK47, but Im not sure the Jazz, in an ideal world, want any version of AK47.

But with Marion, they get a guy who produces when he sulks. Also, he's a better fit on their team. Then lastly, even if he stays on for the next two years, they'll clear about 20 million dollars and have the wiggle room to pay Deron Williams the big fat extension he'll have coming.

 

[Chaplin]

Because they're getting rid of a disgruntled, highly paid player who sulks and doesn't fit their team very well, and getting back one of the top five small forwards in the NBA.

But he's a rent-a-forward. Do you honestly believe the Jazz would extend him?

 

[elindholm]

I think the timing of Marion's contract ending right when they need to extend Williams would be quite appealing to the Jazz. They clear out a problematic player on a big contract, get a comparable plug-in, and address some looming financial problems.

Really it's a very good deal for them. If they want to trade Kirilenko, they are very unlikely to find another option that (a) is available, (b) keeps them at more or less the same level now in terms of talent, and (c) works for their current and future payroll. It's pretty much a match made in heaven as far as Utah is concerned.

Whether it's enough that they'd include Millsap, who knows, probably not. According to some on this board, the Suns would (or should) rather have Brewer anyway, which seems more realistic. And a pick wouldn't hurt, since Sarver can turn it into precious cash down the road. All the same, I think it's Phoenix that blocks this deal, not Utah.

 

[elindholm]

But he's a rent-a-forward. Do you honestly believe the Jazz would extend him?

Probably not, but they can't afford another big salary in 2009 anyway. They'll have Boozer, Williams, and Okur, which is going to be about $34-35 million right there. Do you think they'd rather "lose Marion for nothing," or continue to be stuck with a disgruntled Kirilenko for the last two years of his deal?