Know Thine Enemy: NE Patriots

[RugbyMuffin]

To All,

I wish I could do this every week. I love writing this little blog/blurb that I used to do every week two seasons ago. Yet, I am a Sr. Engineer at a job where they are skeleton crewing people to death and back. Not a bad thing mind you, its a job, and I have just the reality of the situation. Thus no time to write up these posts. I will try to throw something together when I can, like today.

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I am writing this up because this is a litmus test for the Cardinals. You are not going to see a dynamic offense like he Patriots, even when we play GB. The Cardinals last visit to NE was a horror show. This is in a hostile enviroment, across the nation, for a 1 O'Clock Eastern time game.

Great teams go out to a situation like this, and make a statement. The Cardinals, at in the perception that is right now, are not a great team.

New England Patriots: 1-0

Depht Chart: http://www.patriots.com/games-and-stats/depth-chart.html

Team Stats: http://www.nfl.com/teams/newenglandpatriots/statistics?team=NE

Injuries: http://www.nfl.com/teams/newenglandpatriots/injuries?team=NE


Breakdown:

New England:
Against New England it is all about the stopping the offense, and running the ball. New England's offense is so hard to deal with because their tight ends are so versatile and are great all-around football players. What it comes down to is how do you cover Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Rob Gonkowski, and Aaron Hernandez ? Then if you THINK you have that situation under control, then is the personel you have on the field to stop that passing attack strong enough to take care of the run, if they run out of the exact same formation, because while Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Rob Gonkowski, and Aaron Hernandez reads like a 4 WR set, it is a 2 TE set that is a "run formation". Heck if they go 5 WR's and put Julian Elderman out there, they can STILL run out of a 3-WR set by putting Aaron Hernandez in the backfield. In reality, you pick your poison and put in a game plan and see if your team is up to the challenge.

New England, I assume, is going to attack the middle of the defense. Why wouldn't they ? You can't put each CB, and each safety on a guy, it is not going to match up well for the Cardinals, and would allow a guy like Aaron Hernandez to be matched up with Wilson, Rhodes or Washington. That is an advantage to NE in a big way.

On defense ? I am not going to get intimidated by the Patriots stopping the Titans. Jake Locker is a young QB, and when you stack the box against Chris Johnson he becomes a less than average back. The Pats have a good front seven, but their secondary is not too much improved. I have all the respect in he world for Dont'a Hightower but he and Jones are still rookies. This defense is not all-world. It is improved from last year, but with VERY young players as the improvements. It is in the passing game, and on offense that the Cardinals must do SOMETHING, ANYTHING to exploit an advantage.


Cardinals:

Alright. Between you, me, the trees, and the entire internet that can view this. I am not buying the hype. The nation media is a conservative beast. They don't like change. They want the Pats to be good, the love Brett Farve's that they can fawn over, they want things to be the same. It is easier for them to hump the same leg year after year, then to go find out something about a resurgent team out in the country that they got to go do research on.

Everywhere I look I see the Pats in the top three of power rankings. Don't get me wrong the Patriots are tough team to beat, but they are beatable. This not the Ravens where I cannot even see a weakness or a game plan that can be used against them.

On offense, the problem isn't that the Patriots are so much better that the Cardinals on every part of the field. It is that where the Cardinals strengths are, is where the Patriots are also the strong. Where the Cardinals are the weakest are unfortunately, the same weakness that Patriots have.

The Patriots pass defense is suspect. Look at the roster, look at the personel, that is NOT a power house. The defense we played last week is better than they one we will face Sunday. Their defense plays well against the run, and our offense's best asset is the run (or should be at least). There defense backfield does NOT match up well with our passing attack, but our passing attack, specifically the protection and QB play (and that is with Skelton, or Kolb) is a weakness for the Cardinals. Fitzgerald-Roberts-Doucet-Floyd-Heap/Housler-LSH are really tough matchups for the Patriots. Especially, Roberts, and Doucet in the slot. They could have a field day against the Pats. You think the Cardinals have hand-wringing match worries in the middle of the field ? Who the heck on the Patriots is going to cover Doucet, or Roberts in the slot. If Housler ever got his head out of his own butt he would be a menace to a team like the Patriots. Yet, it is what it is. Before a match up in the passing game could ever be used to the Cardinals advantage, they HAVE to give the QB time. Can we stop Hightower, and Jones off the edges ? We will see.

On defense, again, it is all about protection. The days of New England having an unstoppable offensive line are long gone. They have a lot of youth on the line, some injuries too. Dockett-Campbell-Acho, and especially Schofield have to generate some sort of pressure. To be honest I put it more on Dockett and Campbell to bring the heat. That is how you beat teams like the Pats, and the Packers. You have to create pressure.

On coverage, it is a tough situation. Can Daryl Washington cover Rob Gronkowski ? Maybe. Do you put Patrick Peterson on Wes Welker ? Do you put him on Aaron Hernandez ? And if PP7 is on Welker who cover Hernandez, or Welker ? Do you even bother with man 2 man, and just zone blitz the heck out of Brady ? It is a tough assignment, but there is something the Cardinals defense has in its arsenal that I have seen work against the Patriots. They hit. Our secondary brings the wood. We need a game like we had against the Niner's last year. We just lit them on at home on defense. Yep, there were some flags thrown, but they were off of gigantic hits. Lay the wood to Welker and he will hear footsteps. Smack Hernandez around, and GO AFTER THE BALL if you get Gronk in a position he is fighting for an extra 1/2 yard.

Cause I think the Cardinals secondary has the mix of speed and size that they can handle the 2 TE set against the run or pass. I don't think Wilson or Flemming, or Rhodes, or Rashad Johnson is going to get over powered by that 2 TE set. They can tackle, they can hold against the run, IMO. Just can they stop the passing attack.


Conclusion:

I can see a long day at the office on Sunday. There is no doubt the team can shown up, not ready, and be down 30 pts at halftime. We have all seen it happen.

Yet, I say that is a possibility. I can also see a VERY close game that the last 5min is seen nationally as people wait for the late games to start. A close score with the team with the ball last being in a spot to win/lose the game.

Here is hoping for the latter.

 

[crisper57]

To Summarize:

They're good.

They're at home.

They don't have any meaningful injuries.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm more confident in BLOK being able to give the Pats a game than I am Skelton. If we are going to beat the Patriots, it's going to be by completing passes underneath on three- and five-step drops. I've said it over and over again, but BLOK needs to put the ball in the air 40-50 times for this team to win.

I hope we don't attempt to run the ball more than 18 times. I don't think you can win that game, and I think you have to keep Jarrod Mayo running laterally and Hightower off the field altogether.

I think the Cards can match up man-to-man with the Pats. I don't want Washington covering Gronkowski on any downs; I think that Gronk dominates that physical matchup, but I think that Wilson can run with him and beat him up a little bit. I do think that Washington is a good matchup with Aaron Hernandez, though. A good matchup.

I want Patrick Peterson following Brandon Lloyd all over the field. I think that's a great battle.

Can William Gay stay disciplined with Wes Welker? That's the real question for me. That's the key matchup in my mind. If Gay can win some of those battles, I think we have a chance.

That, and being able to contain and be disciplined against Ridley. This could be a game where the Pats run the ball against nickel personnel and ask Acho and Schofield to win physical battles and stay disciplined.

One difference between this team and the last one who came to Foxboro is that the guy under center last time just was AWFUL playing in the open air. Despite a remarkable career and some notable exceptions, Warner struggled to play in the elements. BLOK has played his entire career more or less outdoors; hopefully he'll be able to work it out some.

 

[Mulli]

Vince Wilfork.

 

[crisper57]

Everywhere I look I see the Pats in the top three of power rankings. Don't get me wrong the Patriots are tough team to beat, but they are beatable. This not the Ravens where I cannot even see a weakness or a game plan that can be used against them.

As if to validate your point about change being difficult, I think the Eagles are favorites by 1 against Baltimore.

 

[Mulli]

I'm more confident in BLOK being able to give the Pats a game than I am Skelton. If we are going to beat the Patriots, it's going to be by completing passes underneath on three- and five-step drops. I've said it over and over again, but BLOK needs to put the ball in the air 40-50 times for this team to win.

I hope we don't attempt to run the ball more than 18 times. I don't think you can win that game, and I think you have to keep Jarrod Mayo running laterally and Hightower off the field altogether.

I think the Cards can match up man-to-man with the Pats. I don't want Washington covering Gronkowski on any downs; I think that Gronk dominates that physical matchup, but I think that Wilson can run with him and beat him up a little bit. I do think that Washington is a good matchup with Aaron Hernandez, though. A good matchup.

I want Patrick Peterson following Brandon Lloyd all over the field. I think that's a great battle.

Can William Gay stay disciplined with Wes Welker? That's the real question for me. That's the key matchup in my mind. If Gay can win some of those battles, I think we have a chance.

That, and being able to contain and be disciplined against Ridley. This could be a game where the Pats run the ball against nickel personnel and ask Acho and Schofield to win physical battles and stay disciplined.

One difference between this team and the last one who came to Foxboro is that the guy under center last time just was AWFUL playing in the open air. Despite a remarkable career and some notable exceptions, Warner struggled to play in the elements. BLOK has played his entire career more or less outdoors; hopefully he'll be able to work it out some.

Kent Somers called. He said the Cards should run the ball more, play great defense/special teams. And score more points than the Patriots.

 

[kerouac9]

Kent Somers called. He said the Cards should run the ball more, play great defense/special teams. And score more points than the Patriots.

To be fair to Kent, they should do that, and they'd be wise to do that against 80% of this schedule.

But they shouldn't do it against the Pats.

 

[Mulli]

To be fair to Kent, they should do that, and they'd be wise to do that against 80% of this schedule.

But they shouldn't do it against the Pats.

Or the Seahawks apparently, since the Cards are probably shut out last week if the circle the wagons. Or the 9ers. Or the Pats.

 

[az jam]

To be fair to Kent, they should do that, and they'd be wise to do that against 80% of this schedule.

But they shouldn't do it against the Pats.

Well, RB Chris Johnson Titans did gain 4 yards against them last week.

PS - On 11 caries.

 

[kerouac9]

Or the Seahawks apparently, since the Cards are probably shut out last week if the circle the wagons. Or the 9ers. Or the Pats.

Meh. I don't think that's the case. Shut out? The Cards weren't productive running the football, but doing so shortened the game to the point that when Kolb scored the game was largely over if not for intervention from the referees. Honestly, if the return teams do their job and Ryan Williams doesn't show a propensity among VATech running backs to cough up the ball (you suck, too, Daniel Thomas), then the Seahawks might have actually been shut out.

I think that the Packers illustrated that you're not going to pass your way to victory against San Francisco, didn't they? I might be more afraid of the 49ers pass defense than their run defense, because I think you can wear down Aldon Smith by running at him the way that teams used to do against Simeon Rice.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Getting rolled in NE.....

It's what we do.

 

[Mulli]

Meh. I don't think that's the case. Shut out? The Cards weren't productive running the football, but doing so shortened the game to the point that when Kolb scored the game was largely over if not for intervention from the referees. Honestly, if the return teams do their job and Ryan Williams doesn't show a propensity among VATech running backs to cough up the ball (you suck, too, Daniel Thomas), then the Seahawks might have actually been shut out.

I think that the Packers illustrated that you're not going to pass your way to victory against San Francisco, didn't they? I might be more afraid of the 49ers pass defense than their run defense, because I think you can wear down Aldon Smith by running at him the way that teams used to do against Simeon Rice.

Most NFL D's, especially the 9ers, will easily stop the Cards if the Cards don't mix in the the pass.

And if Kolb can throw against the vaunted SEA secondary (see this board leading up last week's game), why not throw against the likes of Miami, STL, Minny, etc?

 

[kerouac9]

Most NFL D's, especially the 9ers, will easily stop the Cards if the Cards don't mix in the the pass.

And if Kolb can throw against the vaunted SEA secondary (see this board leading up last week's game), why not throw against the likes of Miami, STL, Minny, etc?

I'm not saying that the Cards should run the ball 100% of the time, but you know that. I'm not even saying they should run the ball 70% of the time. You know that, too.

I don't think that BLOK can be successful on 25 attempts per game. That's not been his career arc. He's a rhythm passer. But I don't think he can be successful against the average NFL defense passing the ball 35 times a game, either. I don't think he's that good, or that accurate, or that good a decision-maker.

Kolb didn't throw against the "vaunted SEA secondary." He thew UNDER the vaunted SEA secondary, over and over again, and Seattle did almost nothing to vary their game plan once Kolb came into the game. It seemed to me watching the coach's film that Seattle didn't have a separate game plan designed for when Kolb came into the game, but we absolutely had a package that we knew that Kolb would likely be successful in. Now that Kolb's the starter, teams have shown that they know exactly how to embarrass him, and that Kolb doesn't have any answers to that problem.

There's a difference between building a game plan where you expect to throw the ball 45 times and a game plan where you expect to throw the ball 30 times. There just is. Because I don't think this offense is going to be very good, I prefer to see a game plan where you limit the amount of things that can go wrong. That happens when you run the ball.

We got down against the Seahawks not because we weren't running the ball effectively; we got down against the Seahawks because we didn't play good special teams.

 

[Mulli]

I'm not saying that the Cards should run the ball 100% of the time, but you know that. I'm not even saying they should run the ball 70% of the time. You know that, too.

I don't think that BLOK can be successful on 25 attempts per game. That's not been his career arc. He's a rhythm passer. But I don't think he can be successful against the average NFL defense passing the ball 35 times a game, either. I don't think he's that good, or that accurate, or that good a decision-maker.

Kolb didn't throw against the "vaunted SEA secondary." He thew UNDER the vaunted SEA secondary, over and over again, and Seattle did almost nothing to vary their game plan once Kolb came into the game. It seemed to me watching the coach's film that Seattle didn't have a separate game plan designed for when Kolb came into the game, but we absolutely had a package that we knew that Kolb would likely be successful in. Now that Kolb's the starter, teams have shown that they know exactly how to embarrass him, and that Kolb doesn't have any answers to that problem.

There's a difference between building a game plan where you expect to throw the ball 45 times and a game plan where you expect to throw the ball 30 times. There just is. Because I don't think this offense is going to be very good, I prefer to see a game plan where you limit the amount of things that can go wrong. That happens when you run the ball.

We got down against the Seahawks not because we weren't running the ball effectively; we got down against the Seahawks because we didn't play good special teams.

OK fine. I guess someone forgot to tell the Cardinals about the GREAT special teams thing.

And he was AGAINST the SEA defense. They weren't playing someone else. That is what I meant, but you know that.

 

[kerouac9]

Just to remind you, Mulli, about the passes that Kolb was making in the 4th quarter of the Seattle game:

2-10-ARI 32 (8:13) (Shotgun) 4-K.Kolb pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 46 for 14 yards (50-K.Wright).
1-10-ARI 46 (7:40) 4-K.Kolb pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Roberts (90-J.Jones).
2-10-ARI 46 (7:36) 4-K.Kolb pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to SEA 31 for 23 yards (50-K.Wright).
1-10-SEA 32 (6:45) 4-K.Kolb pass short left to 86-T.Heap to SEA 21 for 11 yards (91-C.Clemons, 23-M.Trufant).
2-7-SEA 18 (5:48) 4-K.Kolb pass short left to 86-T.Heap to SEA 10 for 8 yards (31-K.Chancellor).
1-10-SEA 10 (5:05) (Shotgun) 4-K.Kolb pass short right to 36-L.Stephens-Howling ran ob at SEA 6 for 4 yards (25-R.Sherman).
2-6-SEA 6 (4:59) 4-K.Kolb pass short left to 12-A.Roberts for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

 

[Mulli]

Just to remind you, Mulli, about the passes that Kolb was making in the 4th quarter of the Seattle game:

Yep. Far better than that running to keep bad things from happening.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

To Summarize:

They're good.

They're at home.

They don't have any meaningful injuries.

Two injuries on the offensive line, and Patrick Chung their starting safety is banged up.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

One difference between this team and the last one who came to Foxboro is that the guy under center last time just was AWFUL playing in the open air. Despite a remarkable career and some notable exceptions, Warner struggled to play in the elements. BLOK has played his entire career more or less outdoors; hopefully he'll be able to work it out some.

LOL.

Good times, good times.

It would be 68 degrees in AZ, no wind, clear as the day is long in the sky, and Warner would be talking about how the roof needed to stay closed.

 

[crisper57]

Two injuries on the offensive line, and Patrick Chung their starting safety is banged up.

But he did a full practice, so I don't count his injury as meaningful. As for OL, that is something to keep an eye on.

 

[Mulli]

LOL.

Good times, good times.

It would be 68 degrees in AZ, no wind, clear as the day is long in the sky, and Warner would be talking about how the roof needed to stay closed.

Yep. I was at a game with Warner starting in Tampa. It was too humid that day or something.

Cards couldn't do ANYTHING on offense.

 

[Darkside]

Getting rolled in NE.....

It's what we do.

Sounds like a bumper sticker.

 

[CardLogic]

Sunday's weather report for the Northeastern U.S.
Sunny and pleasant70° Lo53°




I expect a close game. And agree with K9 that the Cardinals offensive game plan should not lean heavy on the run game. Whisenhunt needs to be smart and take what is given instead of trying to force a vertical attack.

New England employs a lot of cover two defense, likes to keep everything in front of them and wait for the opponent to make a mistake.
I look for the OL to surprise everyone this week, by giving Kolb enough time to get off the short throws he'll be doing.

Key to the game will be Cardinals mistakes, if they make them, they will lose. If they don't they have a chance.

 

[crisper57]

Tom Brady Owns the Steelers

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/33265/why-tom-brady-owns-the-steelers

Brady is the one quarterback Pittsburgh's vaunted defense doesn't want to see on the opposing sideline. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he's thrown for 2,008 yards and 14 touchdowns, with only three interceptions against the Steelers.

If he owns the original, why wouldn't he own our version as well?

And this is how the Steelers finally got over the hump:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/f...ngland-patriots-afc-showdown-article-1.969339

Ball-control. Keep it out of Brady's hands. Play a lot of man defense. Yeah, that's not our game.

Get ready to see lots of this:

You must be registered for see images

 

[cardpa]

If our TEs catch 12-15 balls Sunday then we will be in it. If not then there is trouble ahead. Our WRs should be able to create space for the TEs to utilize and Kolb has to get the ball out fast.

The longer we hold the ball on offense the less Brady sees the field and gets into any type of rhythm. I suspect you will see the 2-4-5 a lot Sunday as Horton tries to disguise where the other two rushers will be coming from. We may see a lot of Bradley Sunday as he can get it pretty good and can also cover.

In any case a very difficult task to say the least.

 

[crisper57]

Reverse Mojo Post???? We can hope.

Tom Brady is 10-0 in home openers.

The Cardinals are 4-12 since 2008 in early East Coast games.

The last time the Cardinals played in New England, they lost 47-7. Tom Brady did not play. Kurt Warner did.

In his career, Gronkowski has 12 receptions for 166 yards and 3 TD's against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which runs similar schemes to the Cards. Those 3 TD's came against coverage by William Gay.

Brady is 6-2 against Dick Lebeau defenses. Horton runs a Lebeau-esque D.

The Cardinals have only been 2-0 twice since moving to AZ.