Landry Shamet traded to suns for Javon Carter and 29th pick

[Finito]

It is, but if we miss out on Paul we are desperate.

I don’t think so there are a few good PG out there. We don’t have Paul but I don’t think it will be like years past where we have G league guys playing point

Lowry, Conley, Dinwiddie, Lonzo

 

[Krangodnzr]

I can't see the argument that anyone at #29 would help more next season than Shamet. Even if Shamet's numbers are the same as last year, that's likely to surpass more than half of the 1st round picks next season in almost every category you look at for a combo guard.

In 2-3 years will there be people taken #29 or later that are better than Shamet? Almost definitely but that doesn't mean that's who the Suns would have selected or they would have developed that way here. There are a lot of variables at play.

The move was made to make us stronger now, not in 2-3 years. We can deal with 2-3 years later, our window is only open a short time with Paul.

There are a lot of years where NO PLAYERS drafted 29 and later are better than Shamet.

And even when there are, its like hitting on a lotto ticket, there is no way of knowing.

 

[Krangodnzr]

It is, but if we miss out on Paul we are desperate.

Any team losing an MVP candidate will be desperate. Its exceedingly rare that a team will have a really good replacement on hand unless its by design.

 

[Raze]

Out the door? Unlikely. But eventually? Quite likely. But the odds are very much against being the team selecting a player 29 or later that is the equal or better than Landry. And the difference between that person's ceiling and Shamet's current level is not likely to be enough to justify not taking the player that helps us the most today.

I still want McBride but he's not a sure thing, Shamet is.

The odds for most teams picking a player better than Landry at #29 probably are pretty bad. However the Spurs shunned those odds. In the prior 5 drafts the Spurs selected #29 three times. They landed:

Dejounte Murray
Derrick White
Keldon Johnson

Not superstars mind you, but solid players. And all of them starters (White getting more spotty starts). I would argue all three are better than Landry (for PER purposes they all range from 13-15, whereas Landry is at 10).

And isn't that who we have modeled our franchise after? JJ and Monty preach the same message as the Spurs and seem to produce similar basketball acumen from their players. It isn't far fetched to believe the Suns would have been similarly successful with #29 this year with the likes of Butler, Ayo, and McBride available.

I want to reiterate that I really like Landry and think he'll do very well here. However, as a fan of his, I can honestly tell you that his career has not been as good as I projected (I suggested he's worthy of the #16 pick in 2018).

I just think both things can be true at the same time, that is: It's reasonable to assume Landry will do well here AND it's reasonable to assume that we could've landed a player that is slightly better with greater potential than Landry at #29.

 

[Chaplin]

The odds for most teams picking a player better than Landry at #29 probably are pretty bad. However the Spurs shunned those odds. In the prior 5 drafts the Spurs selected #29 three times. They landed:

Dejounte Murray
Derrick White
Keldon Johnson

Not superstars mind you, but solid players. And all of them starters (White getting more spotty starts). I would argue all three are better than Landry (for PER purposes they all range from 13-15, whereas Landry is at 10).

And isn't that who we have modeled our franchise after? JJ and Monty preach the same message as the Spurs and seem to produce similar basketball acumen from their players. It isn't far fetched to believe the Suns would have been similarly successful with #29 this year with the likes of Butler, Ayo, and McBride available.

I want to reiterate that I really like Landry and think he'll do very well here. However, as a fan of his, I can honestly tell you that his career has not been as good as I projected (I suggested he's worthy of the #16 pick in 2018).

I just think both things can be true at the same time, that is: It's reasonable to assume Landry will do well here AND it's reasonable to assume that we could've landed a player that is slightly better with greater potential than Landry at #29.

Again we are in win now mode. What are the stats for each of those guys in their first year? And were the Spurs contenders at the time they were drafted, allowing their players to have more playing time? Jalen Smith was picked 10 and got almost zero playing time for a contender.

 

[GatorAZ]

I can't see the argument that anyone at #29 would help more next season than Shamet. Even if Shamet's numbers are the same as last year, that's likely to surpass more than half of the 1st round picks next season in almost every category you look at for a combo guard.

In 2-3 years will there be people taken #29 or later that are better than Shamet? Almost definitely but that doesn't mean that's who the Suns would have selected or they would have developed that way here. There are a lot of variables at play.

The move was made to make us stronger now, not in 2-3 years. We can deal with 2-3 years later, our window is only open a short time with Paul.

Shamet is a good but not great 3pt shooter and he’s one of the worst defenders in the league based on the eye test/metrics. So I don’t think it’s impossible that the 29th pick would be a better option. Likely no, but I don’t agree that it’s a forgone conclusion.

 

[Mainstreet]

Shamet is a good but not great 3pt shooter and he’s one of the worst defenders in the league based on the eye test/metrics. So I don’t think it’s impossible that the 29th pick would be a better option. Likely no, but I don’t agree that it’s a forgone conclusion.

Also to be considered is that Shamet may be a rental. If the Suns were committed to keeping him over multiple years I would feel better about it.

 

[Covert Rain]

I am saying somebody in this draft who was drafted after 29 is very likely better than shamet yes.

The odds disagree with you. I posted them earlier in the thread. That might be how you feel but it's not true.

 

[Yuma]

It's a known commodity in Shamet, versus a coin flip in a new player. I like the shooting and scoring we need in the second unit with this move. My opinion is it is an upgrade at the end of the day. Good move. We need a big, or two in free agency/trade.

 

[1Sun]

It's a known commodity in Shamet, versus a coin flip in a new player. I like the shooting and scoring we need in the second unit with this move. My opinion is it is an upgrade at the end of the day. Good move. We need a big, or two in free agency/trade.

Two, given that Saric is out for the season.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Two, given that Saric is out for the season.

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, well you just might find, you don't get what you need.

I think we'll be lucky to add a decent rotation big before the season. Two is a pipe dream IMO.

 

[Bufalay]

Except that they favored shamet in shooting and say nothing about how they actually play. Shamet is bigger and a better ball handler and a better defender from the eye test. Stats are great for comparison if youve never watched the players play.

Read the post I was responding to

 

[1Sun]

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, well you just might find, you don't get what you need.

I think we'll be lucky to add a decent rotation big before the season. Two is a pipe dream IMO.

I take it, then, that you're not in favor of re-signing Chris Paul?

 

[AzStevenCal]

I take it, then, that you're not in favor of re-signing Chris Paul?

I'm not sure I get the connection? But, yes I am absolutely in favor of signing Chris Paul and I am in favor of bringing in as much new talent as we can find. I just know the limitations we face.

 

[1Sun]

I'm not sure I get the connection? But, yes I am absolutely in favor of signing Chris Paul and I am in favor of bringing in as much new talent as we can find. I just know the limitations we face.

If we would be "lucky" to bring in one rotation big, then signing CP3 is a waste of time and money, in my opinion. The only way we should be keeping CP3 is if we are all-in on a championship run, and there is zero chance of a championship run if the only bigs on the roster are Ayton and Jalen Smith.

 

[AzStevenCal]

If we would be "lucky" to bring in one rotation big, then signing CP3 is a waste of time and money, in my opinion. The only way we should be keeping CP3 is if we are all-in on a championship run, and there is zero chance of a championship run if the only bigs on the roster are Ayton and Jalen Smith.

We got lucky to get where we did, and then we ran into some bad luck otherwise we would have won it all. We have young players that should improve and if we bring in another rotation big to replace the injured Saric, re-sign Paul and Payne there's no reason we couldn't compete for a championship again. Packing it in because we can't build a perfect roster is a recipe for failure.

 

[Proximo]

Two, given that Saric is out for the season.

I agree, but I think the Suns are thinking one of them is Jalen Smith.

I have absolutley no confidence in him whatsoever.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I agree, but I think the Suns are thinking one of them is Jalen Smith.

I have absolutley no confidence in him whatsoever.

If all they saw of Jalen Smith was in line with what we all saw of Jalen Smith, I highly doubt they have ANY expectations of him this season. If they saw something more from him than we did, great, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him released or included in a trade to a rebuilding team. He might have a big future in the NBA but if so, it looks to be several years away.

 

[Folster]

If all they saw of Jalen Smith was in line with what we all saw of Jalen Smith, I highly doubt they have ANY expectations of him this season. If they saw something more from him than we did, great, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him released or included in a trade to a rebuilding team. He might have a big future in the NBA but if so, it looks to be several years away.

Released? That would be an epic fail. His trade value is well below his draft position at this point. Likely better to hold onto him instead of throwing him into a trade unless management thinks he has no chance in the league a year after drafting him. Still an epic draft fail.

 

[GatorAZ]

Released? That would be an epic fail. His trade value is well below his draft position at this point. Likely better to hold onto him instead of throwing him into a trade unless management thinks he has no chance in the league a year after drafting him. Still an epic draft fail.

They gave away 2nd rounders to get rid of players like Warren and Jackson. I wouldn’t be surprised if he shows nothing next year and they just decline his option.

 

[1Sun]

We got lucky to get where we did, and then we ran into some bad luck otherwise we would have won it all. We have young players that should improve and if we bring in another rotation big to replace the injured Saric, re-sign Paul and Payne there's no reason we couldn't compete for a championship again. Packing it in because we can't build a perfect roster is a recipe for failure.

But even you are assuming here that we bring in another rotation big to replace the injured Saric, which you just said we would be "lucky" to be able to do.

If we don't have that stroke of luck and don't bring in that rotation big, then CP3 is wasted here, the Shamet trade was for nothing, and this team doesn't have a prayer this coming season.

We all just saw how vulnerable this team is with Ayton as the only serviceable big. We can't just ignore that fact.

In my opinion, this team MUST do whatever it takes to bring AT LEAST a rotation big to replace Saric, who is AT LEAST as effective as the good version of Saric.

I, on the other hand, would like to see the team do whatever it takes, including pay luxury tax, to bring in a rotation big that is an UPGRADE from Saric, PLUS A SECOND rotation big.

We went 28 years without making a championship run. For all we know, it could be another 28 years before our next opportunity to play in the NBA Finals. We have to strike while the iron is hot.

 

[1Sun]

I agree, but I think the Suns are thinking one of them is Jalen Smith.

I have absolutley no confidence in him whatsoever.

Nor do I, and if James Jones honestly believes Jalen Smith is ready to contribute to the rotation of a championship team, he needs to be fired immediately. I can't believe he would be that stupid. It is obvious to the entire world that Jalen Smith is nowhere near ready to play legitimate NBA minutes.

 

[1Sun]

If all they saw of Jalen Smith was in line with what we all saw of Jalen Smith, I highly doubt they have ANY expectations of him this season. If they saw something more from him than we did, great, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him released or included in a trade to a rebuilding team. He might have a big future in the NBA but if so, it looks to be several years away.

Bingo, except I can see them trying to develop him in the G League over the next 2 years or so.

 

[AZman5103]

We had our shot and blew it. No way we sniff the finals again with this group

 

[AzStevenCal]

But even you are assuming here that we bring in another rotation big to replace the injured Saric, which you just said we would be "lucky" to be able to do.

If we don't have that stroke of luck and don't bring in that rotation big, then CP3 is wasted here, the Shamet trade was for nothing, and this team doesn't have a prayer this coming season.

We all just saw how vulnerable this team is with Ayton as the only serviceable big. We can't just ignore that fact.

In my opinion, this team MUST do whatever it takes to bring AT LEAST a rotation big to replace Saric, who is AT LEAST as effective as the good version of Saric.

I, on the other hand, would like to see the team do whatever it takes, including pay luxury tax, to bring in a rotation big that is an UPGRADE from Saric, PLUS A SECOND rotation big.

We went 28 years without making a championship run. For all we know, it could be another 28 years before our next opportunity to play in the NBA Finals. We have to strike while the iron is hot.

I think we'll add a big, we'll be lucky if we can get someone good enough to replace Saric. I expect we'll have better luck filling the position at midseason when veterans are released. I know you know this but you can't just sign someone because you've decided to pay luxury tax, you still have to play by the cap rules. I'm confident that if all it took was money (luxury tax kind of money), we'd be adding a good big man.