Let's have another center speculation thread!

[elindholm]

Heck, we can't get enough of these, can we?

The Republic is renewing the speculation that Marion will get traded for a center. For the moment, let's put aside the questions of whether this is likely or a good idea. Instead, let's rank the possibilities out there from most likely (even if "most likely" means "almost impossible") to least likely. The question isn't what you think the Suns want, but what you think they're likely to get IF the trade-Marion speculation has anything behind it.

(Clarification: this isn't about minimum-level players, who wouldn't have anything to do with a Marion trade.)

Here's the list of "possibilities" I see. I put "possibilities" in quotes because I'm sure that some people will want to argue that so-and-so is impossible. Fine, then put him at the bottom of your list. This list is alphabetical:

Kwame Brown (WAS, $5.4 million, 2005)
Tyson Chandler (CHI, $4.8 million, 2005)
Eddy Curry (CHI, $3.9 million, 2005)
Erick Dampier (GSW, sign-and-trade)
Antonio Davis (CHI, $12 million, 2006)
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE, $14.6 million, 2005)
Raef LaFrentz (BOS, $9.1 million, 2009)
Jamaal Magloire (NOH, contract terms not on hoopshype)
Dikembe Mutombo ($4.5 million, 2005)
Michael Olowokandi ($5.4 million, 2006 according to hoopshype, but I thought it was longer?)
Theo Ratliff (POR, $10.9 million, 2005)
Stromile Swift (MEM, sign-and-trade)
Kurt Thomas ($5.9 million, 2008)

Please let me know if I’ve missed anyone.

The list should include only those centers (or PF/C’s) about whom there has been some rational trade speculation. In my opinion Magloire and Ratliff don’t belong on the list, but given how much they’ve been discussed on this board, I thought it would be rude not to include them. If you want to include Duncan and Yao on your lists, on the grounds that “anything is possible,” go ahead and put them at the bottom (or heck, higher than the bottom if you like).

Remember, it’s a ranking of likelihood, not who you want the Suns to get.

Have fun!

 

[elindholm]

My own likelihood ranking:

LaFrentz
Thomas
Chandler
Brown
Swift
Olowokandi
Dampier
Curry
Mutombo
Ratliff
Magloire
Ilgauskas
Davis

 

[PhxGametime]

Erick Dampier (Mike Dunleavy) package
Stromile Swift (Mike Miller) package
Michael Olowokandi (Wally Szczerbiak) package
PJ Brown (Courtney Alexander) package
Raef LaFrentz (Jiri Welsch) package
Tyson Chandler (Eddie Robinson) package
Zydrunas Ilgauskas package
Kurt Thomas (Shanden Anderson+) package
Scot Pollard (Jonathan Bender) package

 

[elindholm]

Aw heck, I forgot Olowokandi, but he definitely should be included.

Pollard won't be the centerpiece of a Marion trade. I can safely say that that's "impossible."

 

[PhxGametime]

Kwame Brown at least I would be interested in (as I'm sure Suns might be) but unless Larry Hughes is part of package and Suns offer more, then salaries don't match... the only reason he wasn't listed. I will find Mutombo's team and check for a package (Bulls right?).

 

[scoutmasterdave]

In today's Arizona Republic (RE: trade Marion for a big man):

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/0814olyarizonanb14.html

 

[scoutmasterdave]

Marion for Kwame Brown and Larry Hughes works under the cap, according to RealGM. I'm not sure I love the trade, but it is certainly intriguing...

 

[PhxGametime]

Mutombo would need to be traded in 3-way trade... unless Mutombo, Curry, etc. trade... I didn't add Curry because of Chandler on same team ala Magloire (PJ Brown trade) and I'd think these 2 trades would offer those 2 players I listed before Curry and Magloire.

 

[PhxGametime]

No way Washington trades both Hughes and Brown for Marion straight up - actually I could've made up a trade... and added Suns pieces but I would think Suns would need add at least a few more pieces and the trades I made were mainly Marion as the big prize.

 

[coloradosun]

Elindholm


Thanks for including Ratliff.

Here's my take, Portland is basicly a lame duck team, no body wants to be there. SAR wants out, Miles wants out, Patterson wants out, Stoudamire doesn't know what's going on, Anderson doesn't know how much he is wanted, Randolph thinks the team may be build around but will most likely test the FA market to determine his value. The only players that knows that he is wanted is Van Exel and Ratliff. Ratliff has the most trade value so they may not want to trade him but they may have to. The players are looking more at what will happen vs. what they can do this season. They know that if they do start the season together they more than likely will not finish the season together.

Again if I was Nash I would seriously consider adding Dampier and Marion to add some stability to the team. The fans have not turned out because of the players reputations (I do remember the days that they envy of all the NBA franchises because of the fan loyalty similar to Phoenix before the sports market in Phoenix got so saturated) Damp and Marion are solid players and citizens and will offset the loses of Ratliff and SAR but add long term contracts. Dampier gave a lot of credit to NVE for his impoved numbers last season. Dampier and NVE were almost acquired last year by the Blazers for Rasheed Wallace but they settled for Theo and SAR instead because of Atlanta's situation. If you want to know where I have done my research go to the Oregonian.com and visit the Blazerblog.

I know everyone here think it is a long shot but I do believe it is still possible since the major player's names are still being circulated in trade rumors, all execept Theo and that is the "shock" value.

 

[George O'Brien]

For a day or so I was wondering if our favorite topic of speculation was dead.

A slightly different way of approaching this process would be to rank centers in terms of how desirable they might be to the Suns independent of their availability. For example, Shaq and Yao might be the top two centers per some opinions, but Duncan would be my first choice since his style would be a much better fit.

One of the reasons that a deal sending Marion to the Warriors for Dampier (and someone else) is doubtful, is that Dampier is not an ideal fit for the Suns even if he is healthy and motivated. IMHO he would have been a nice pickup for $45 million, but hardly an ideal choice even at $55 million.

Another example, IMHO, Brad Miller is not an elite center, but he would be a better fit than Zydrunas Ilgauskas who has much better stats.

 

[elindholm]

A slightly different way of approaching this process would be to rank centers in terms of how desirable they might be to the Suns independent of their availability.

Yes, but it's my impression that that's been done pretty much to death. So I opted for this angle as an alternative.

I strongly disagree with you on Dampier. If he were "healthy and motivated" (last year's player, in other words), he would be a nearly perfect fit.

I do agree with you on Miller vs. Ilgauskas, however. I can't see the Suns having any real interest in Ilgauskas, whereas they'd surely be intrigued by Miller if he were available (which, alas, he isn't).

 

[George O'Brien]

A slightly different way of approaching this process would be to rank centers in terms of how desirable they might be to the Suns independent of their availability.

Yes, but it's my impression that that's been done pretty much to death. So I opted for this angle as an alternative.

I strongly disagree with you on Dampier. If he were "healthy and motivated" (last year's player, in other words), he would be a nearly perfect fit.

I do agree with you on Miller vs. Ilgauskas, however. I can't see the Suns having any real interest in Ilgauskas, whereas they'd surely be intrigued by Miller if he were available (which, alas, he isn't).

Fair enough.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

LaFrentz - The Danny Ainge connection. This scares the hell out of me, but if he is healthy, he would be a nice addition. To make it work, we would also get Jiri Welsch and another player (I made a trade with McCarty since he deal has 1 year left.)



Other than that, I would agree mostly with Eric's order. Except I would throw Chandler and Curry below Mutumbo.

 

[coloradosun]

My contigency plan

Francisco Elson------ for Casey Jacobsen.

 

[George O'Brien]

My contigency plan

Francisco Elson------ for Casey Jacobsen.

I'm not sure he's worth it. His numbers aren't that much better than Hunter's. Elson is a slightly better rebounder but not even close to being as good a shot blocker.

Francisco Elson
Denver Nuggets
Position: F-C
Height: 7-0 Weight: 235
College: California '99
Player file | Team stats

2003-04 Statistics
PPG 3.5
RPG 3.3
APG .5
SPG .56
BPG .63
FG% .472
FT% .667
3P% .000
MPG 14.1

------------------------------------------
Steven Hunter
Orlando Magic
Position: C-F
Height: 7-0 Weight: 240
College: DePaul '03
Player file | Team stats

2003-04 Statistics
PPG 3.2
RPG 2.9
APG .2
SPG .08
BPG 1.24
FG% .529
FT% .333
3P% .000
MPG 13.4

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I agree with George. We are talking about 2 end of the rotation guys. The difference in impact will be minimal, if any.

Why give up a now promising player (it is weird to call CJ that now...) when we can sign someone for the minimum?

 

[PhxGametime]

I agree with George.

IMO I'd probably keep Marion and add Steven Hunter/Scott Williams, from the players being mentioned via Free Agency over a trade - regardless of my list (I'm a Marion fan though).

 

[hcsilla]

LaFrentz - The Danny Ainge connection. This scares the hell out of me, but if he is healthy, he would be a nice addition. To make it work, we would also get Jiri Welsch and another player (I made a trade with McCarty since he deal has 1 year left.)

If LaFrentz is healthy and BOS thinks that Jefferson can become their future PF then LaFrentz, Stewart, BOS's and/or LAL's pick for Marion does make sense for both teams.

 

[JCSunsfan]

You probably ought to consider putting Alonzo Mourning on that list. I know most on this board have no interest, but Zo has said that he is interested in playing and he is available.

 

[JCSunsfan]

In today's Arizona Republic (RE: trade Marion for a big man):

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/0814olyarizonanb14.html

Interesting article. What I find most intriguing is the lack of comment from the Suns organization. Marion's comments seem to indicate he actually might be aware of the Suns' intent to shop him (as if they have told him so already). At the very least, they have given him no assurances that they are keeping him.

Likewise, we have heard no "we're not trading Shawn" comment from anyone in the Suns organization. Hmmm.

I'm one of those who is in favor of keeping Shawn, but if talks are underway, I would be interested in seeing what we could actually get for him.

 

[elindholm]

You probably ought to consider putting Alonzo Mourning on that list.

I did, but I can't see him as the centerpiece of a Marion trade. His potential value is high, in my opinion, but nowhere near that high. Mutombo is in the same category, really; I shouldn't have included him, but it's too late now.

For the other low-salaried players (e.g. Curry), it's assumed that a trade would include their getting a substantial extension.

 

[JCSunsfan]

You probably ought to consider putting Alonzo Mourning on that list.

I did, but I can't see him as the centerpiece of a Marion trade. His potential value is high, in my opinion, but nowhere near that high. Mutombo is in the same category, really; I shouldn't have included him, but it's too late now.

For the other low-salaried players (e.g. Curry), it's assumed that a trade would include their getting a substantial extension.

I'm sorry, I didn't realize that a potential Marion trade was a prerequisite for putting players on the list. If that's the case, I would leave most of those players off the list.

 

[slinslin]

LaFrentz - No, awful contract, average player
Thomas - Not a center by any means
Chandler - Yes, "potential" to be special
Brown - s.a.
Swift - Not a center really
Olowokandi - average at best
Dampier - not nearly worth Marion
Curry - if he improved his work ethic he could be special
Mutombo - only cheap
Ratliff - Too old and fragile to have him as a cornerstone
Magloire - Just above average
Ilgauskas - Too old, only for cheap
Davis - only cheap

Marion, Eisley and Chicago's pick for Davis and Chandler. I'd take that.
Marion for Kwame and Hughes. I'd take that as well and possibly deal Hughes plus Eisley to a third team for an expiring contract possibly.

Marion to Washington
Hughes and Eisley to Chicago
Kwame and Davis to Phoenix

Works under the cap as well.

 

[zett]

What we need is to make a trade involving smaller salary players, where we get just over the cap and then we could add Damp as a mid level exemption. At this point I think he would definitly consider that to join a very promising team.