Long Range Impact of Tonight's Game

[azirish]

Going into this series, there was a real discussion about how the Suns core might be broken up if they do badly against the Spurs. After tonight's series, I think it is far less likely that this would happen.

Obviously the Suns luxury tax problem will remain a problem, but it seems clear that the sponsorship money generated by the Suns success is much larger than expected. This is not a lower playoff team with little chance of getting a championship, but instead a team that could very well be the best team in the league. Ripping this team apart could cost many millions in sponsorship money by destroying the Suns chances of winning it all.

Tonight showed just how close the Suns are.

In an article printed in a Dallas paper, one of their columnists suggested the Suns are a lot more likely to get to the finals than the Mavs. His reasoning was that the Mavs have a lot of mismatched parts that aren't going to be all that easy to trade, while the Suns have a solid core and likely a top draft pick.

 

[TheHopToad]

I totally agree. Keep this core together, add a couple draft picks and a role player on the bench and let it ride!

You can never underestimate the value of team chemistry. These guys have been together for a while and have been through battles that bring them even closer. They may snap at each other or bicker from time to time, but like brothers in arms, there's nothing they wouldn't do for each other.

 

[pokerface]

I feel sorry for Amare long term. He's going to have to answer "what if" the rest of his career if we dont pull this series out. I know I've been down on him but even I don't wish that on him for his brief laps of judgement.

 

[JonnySuns]

Guys, can you help me out here. Being from england I find it a little difficult to understand the concept of this luxury tax issue that the team is facing next season. I understand about the player's salaries and how when combined they have to be under the salary cap but the luxury tax thing is a bit confusing.

Can someone explain to me where/what the problem is and does it mean that we're gonna have to lose some of our better players in the coming seasons?

 

[green machine]

Guys, can you help me out here. Being from england I find it a little difficult to understand the concept of this luxury tax issue that the team is facing next season. I understand about the player's salaries and how when combined they have to be under the salary cap but the luxury tax thing is a bit confusing.

Can someone explain to me where/what the problem is and does it mean that we're gonna have to lose some of our better players in the coming seasons?

From what I understand the luxury tax is a dollar for dollar system where however much the team is over the salary cap by, they have to pay an equal amount of money for the luxury tax. So, for instance, if the Suns are $10 million over the cap, they'll have to pay another $10 million for the tax.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

From what I understand the luxury tax is a dollar for dollar system where however much the team is over the salary cap by, they have to pay an equal amount of money for the luxury tax. So, for instance, if the Suns are $10 million over the cap, they'll have to pay another $10 million for the tax.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here.

Essentially you are correct. There are some salaries that can be exempt from the luxury tax, but you pretty much got it.

 

[Kolo]

I think tonight's game (and this series) means we might be able to move Kurt Thomas to dump salary, and not have to move Marion.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I think tonight's game (and this series) means we might be able to move Kurt Thomas to dump salary, and not have to move Marion.

I'd honestly rather dump Marion. We need KT on this team next year. We could get by without Marion if we land the #4 pick.

 

[95pro]

I totally agree. Keep this core together, add a couple draft picks and a role player on the bench and let it ride!

You can never underestimate the value of team chemistry. These guys have been together for a while and have been through battles that bring them even closer. They may snap at each other or bicker from time to time, but like brothers in arms, there's nothing they wouldn't do for each other.

agreed.

just look at the pistons.

 

[asudevil83]

From what I understand the luxury tax is a dollar for dollar system where however much the team is over the salary cap by, they have to pay an equal amount of money for the luxury tax. So, for instance, if the Suns are $10 million over the cap, they'll have to pay another $10 million for the tax.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here.

well you are missing one small thing there. i'll see if i can break it down.

this season the salary cap was something around $55mil. teams are able to use all of this money freely to sign players. so essentially if a team has $45mil commited to players, they can use $10mil to sign a combinations of players. now, there are more complicated rules that factor in here, but this is the gist.

the luxury tax though doesnt kick in until a team's salary hits $65mil though. so there is pretty much a $10mil buffer between the cap and the luxury tax. use of the MLE, trades, or raises in player salary, and draft picks all can take a team over the salary cap of $55mil.

after a team's salary breaks the $65mil the pay a dollar for dollar tax on the salaries that are over the $65mil mark. so, if the sun's total salary is $75mil, they would pay a $10mil tax to the league.

now.....teams that fall below this $65mil mark recieve a portion of all the tax money other teams pay. so let say you have 10 teams paying a total of $60mil in luxury tax payments. the other 20 teams would split that money amoungst themselves as extra income for the team.

 

[azirish]

Estimates are that the luxury tax line will rise to about $68 million, but the Suns will certainly be over it.

The problem teas over the luxury tax line have to deal with is that there are only two ways to reduce salaries. Trade a player to a team that will be below the salary cap (estimated in the $50 million range) or to trade for expiring contracts. The second strategy cuts salaries over time, but not immediately.

To add to the confusion, players with contracts that involved a major increase (such as Barbosa and Diaw) enter their base year contract on their first season. In those cases, they can be traded but only half of their salary can be used to offset the matching salary of the incoming player. This means that to trade them, the team needs to deal with teams under the cap.

In the Suns case, it is very hard to reduce salaires without paying to get rid of their player. KT is entering the last year of his contract. Marion has two years left, so he could be traded for someone with a one year contract -- but it is extremely unlikely they'd get anyone who could contribute.

The bottom line is that the team might be able to dump salaries, but there is no way to do it without serious damage to the team's chances.

 

[Mainstreet]

Maybe I just missed it, but isn't buying out a player's contract an option though an expensive one.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Maybe I just missed it, but isn't buying out a player's contract an option though an expensive one.

Yes. It still counts against the cap, so unless the player is a real cancer, or the team really needs a roster spot. It makes little sense.

 

[Mainstreet]

Yes. It still counts against the cap, so unless the player is a real cancer, or the team really needs a roster spot. It makes little sense.

Still a bit confused. Didn't the Mavs buyout of Finley help them with LT and wouldn't a buyout of say KT help Phoenix advoid the LT in the short term?

 

[Muggum]

I hope Sarver's competitive fire has been stoked, and that he simply decides to pay the tax and keep the team intact, plus 3 great rookies. The Spurs ain't getting any younger. If we lose this year, next year will be our coronation.

 

[Skratchy_Seal]

Still a bit confused. Didn't the Mavs buyout of Finley help them with LT and wouldn't a buyout of say KT help Phoenix advoid the LT in the short term?

I believe the Finley situation was a ONE-TIME amnesty rule that applied to each team after the latest collective bargaining agreement took into effect. Finley's contract would not count against the luxury tax, but the Mavericks still pay the remainder of the contract when no other team picked him up off waivers.

The Suns used their amnesty for Howard Eisley.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I believe the Finley situation was a ONE-TIME amnesty rule that applied to each team after the latest collective bargaining agreement took into effect. Finley's contract would not count against the luxury tax, but the Mavericks still pay the remainder of the contract when no other team picked him up off waivers.

The Suns used their amnesty for Howard Eisley.

Right you are Ken.

 

[F-Dog]

One thing this series has proven is that the Suns are the better basketball team. They already know they match up well with Dallas, so if the Suns keep the team together, they should be favorites for next year's title.

I'm sure Sarver will be very disappointed if the Suns are upset here, though.

 

[AZZenny]

A week or two ago on radio Sarver said flat out that he was not going to be forced into making bad team decisions in the off-season just to avoid some luxury tax next year, and that HOW the team played together in the playoffs would be a bigger determinant of off-season decisions than luxury tax. And he refused to discuss anyone or anything beyond that, saying that was what the off-season is for.

 

[TheHopToad]

They have played like champions in the playoffs! They have shown that they are far and away the better team. With any luck at all, the Suns would have wrapped up this series in 5 games. If not for Nash's bloody gash in game 1, I believe they win that game. If not for the suspensions, they easily win game 5.

The only game they lost on their own was game 3....oh wait, the refs screwed totally them in that one too and they still only lost by 7.

I think the way this team battled last night shorthanded should give them a lot of confidence going into game 6 and it should also scare the hell out of the Spurs. With Amare focused, rested, and out for revenge, we can't lose.

Suns in 7!

 

[haverford]

A week or two ago on radio Sarver said flat out that he was not going to be forced into making bad team decisions in the off-season just to avoid some luxury tax next year, and that HOW the team played together in the playoffs would be a bigger determinant of off-season decisions than luxury tax. And he refused to discuss anyone or anything beyond that, saying that was what the off-season is for.

It is very hard for us to get into the reasoning of a multi-millionaire who buys a sports franchise. I'm sure there are those bottom line types who are loathe to view their investment as anything other than a short-term investment (I have a friend who is just this sort--refusing a buy-in to the Nets consortium because the revenues didn't add up for him). But I'm sure there are those who are in it for the ego alone. Let us hope Sarver is among the latter. I'm starting to think he might be.

 

[JonnySuns]

Well thanks fellas, I appreciate the lesson on team salaries and finances there, it certainly makes a lot of sense to me now )

As far as I see it, Sarver seems genuine is his belief of this team and so I think it would be a fair bet that he will get on with it and pay the luxury tax next season knowing that keeping the core together and with the addition of some quality rookies, our chances of winning the title next season, if not this, are just as good if not better than right now!

Btw, are we not expected to probably try and trade away Marcus Banks in the off-season, maybe for a player with 1 year left on his contract, surely that would help our overall team salary a bit and its not like we'd be losing a big contributor!??

 

[Covert Rain]

For me the bottom line is titles. There are no moral victories in basketball. If we get eliminated tonight and have a chance to improve the team come this off season then you do it. I would still feel the same way even if we wont the title. By no means though do you tear the team apart.

 

[mathbzh]

We must do something to have a deeper rotation. An 8 player rotation is not enough and cost us the last game. Even with Amare and Diaw out we had the talent to win the game. That is great. But with Nash Raja and Marion playing 45+ minutes it would have been a miracle.

 

[AZZenny]

See, I agree there -- what the hell good is a bench if you think they stink so badly you are afraid to ever use them? I would say that the failure to even try to develop part of the bench during the regular season is Coach D's biggest flaw. I hark back to Bob Brenley -- terrible as he was about many things, he did make sure all season long that his bench was fully part of the team chemistry and were comfortable playing, and it was a huge factor in the WS.
...but on the other hand, I can't imagine why guys like Pat Burke, or Paul Shirley last year, etc. are even in pro basketball. Get Casey back here. At least D'Antoni liked him.