Lottery count down

[Russ Smith]

Curious, what makes you think Boston is desperate? I think only ball isn't a great fit for them. But either fultz, Jackson, Tatum, Isaac or markennen are good additions for them.

I think Boston needs guys who can play offense. I think it's apparent that Stevens likes great defenders and has a roster full of them, but their offense isn't good enough and that's why IT is such a big part of their offense despite his bad defense, they need him to be able to score at all.

So I'd actually say any of Fultz, Markkanen and Tatum all fit because they can make shots. Ball would fit the problem is they have very few shooters so having a potentially elite playmaker on a team of guys who aren't very good shooters might be less effective. He'd proably get the guys better shots, but it would be more ideal if they were better shooters.

I don't know on Isaac I'm still waiting to see all the measurables and the medical stuff. I saw him 2 games in college this year where he was visibly laboring during the game and it wasn't limping. Once he stunk for a half then came in playing much better in the 2nd half, the other time he basically stunk the whole game. I don't know if he was sick or if it was some sort of Kevon Looney situation where he has asthma? It took me about 5 games at UCLA before I started saying Looney must have asthma it was just obvious watching him gasping for air during FT's and it turned out I was right on him. I haven't seen Isaac enough but either he was sick those 2 times or he had some sort of breathing issue going on and that's the sort of stuff that comes out during NBA medical checks.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The probability of the #2 lottery seed falling to 5th is about 1 in 8. So for it to have happened five times in less than 20 years is surprising, but not extraordinarily so.

Most likely draft positions for the #2 lottery seed:

#4, 32%
#1, 20%
#2, 19%
#3, 17%
#5, 12%

Here is the breakdown for the second seeded team since the weighted lottery began.

1-twice
2-five times
3--five times
4--ten times
5--five times

Its always interesting to me to see the difference between probabilities and actualities. Moral of the story, #4 is where you place your bet.

 

[elindholm]

Here is the breakdown for the second seeded team since the weighted lottery began.

1-twice
2-five times
3--five times
4--ten times
5--five times

Its always interesting to me to see the difference between probabilities and actualities. Moral of the story, #4 is where you place your bet.

Oh, right, 1990 was 27 years ago, not 17 years ago. Heh.

Actually the "performance" has been surprisingly close to the predictions, all things considered. Fewer #1's and more #5's, but the others are almost right on.

 

[GatorAZ]

FIVE TIMES!

In 2009, the second seeded team picked 5th. The Wizards had the second best lotto odds but were jumped by the Clippers (3rd) who took Blake Griffin, the Griz (6th) who took Thabeet, and the Thunder (4th) who took Harden.

The Wizards traded away the pick to Minny for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. Minny took Rubio.

It also happened in 2007 to the Celtics. They were seeded 2nd and picked 5th with Portland, Seattle and Atlanta jumping them. That was the famous Atlanta/Horford draft that screwed the Suns too.

In 2001 the Wizards, Clips, and Hawks, jumped the Warriors who were seeded second.

In 1993 the Timberwolves were jumped by the Magic, Sixers, and Warriors.

In 1991 the Heat were jumped by the Hornets, Nets and Kings.

Thats as far back as we go for a weighted lottery. Before that it was equal weighting and doesn't really fit.

Crazy how ping pong balls alter history.

Falling back 4 spots was the best thing to happen to Boston that year. Everyone was talking like Oden would be their Bill Russell. Celtics fans rioted after the lottery and Ainge ended up trading it to Seattle for Ray Allen and the rest is history....

 

[Jay Cardinal]

It's gotta be Jackson all the way for me.

Honestly I think Fox could end up better than fultz and ball

Ugh. We saw an identical player with Michael Kidd Gilchrest a couple years ago, I've seen this story. Top-3 needs to be a shooter and great scorer. Not looking for a "lock down defender" at that stage in the draft.

Fox is interesting and I view as an equal second tier to Jackson as no one was able to guard him in the NCAA'S, and he is awesome on defense. Both player have the big wild card of shooting.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Oh, right, 1990 was 27 years ago, not 17 years ago. Heh.

Actually the "performance" has been surprisingly close to the predictions, all things considered. Fewer #1's and more #5's, but the others are almost right on.

Of course, you would expect those to even out over time, but the odds are really the same--every year.

 

[Finito]

Ugh. We saw an identical player with Michael Kidd Gilchrest a couple years ago, I've seen this story. Top-3 needs to be a shooter and great scorer. Not looking for a "lock down defender" at that stage in the draft.

Fox is interesting and I view as an equal second tier to Jackson as no one was able to guard him in the NCAA'S, and he is awesome on defense. Both player have the big wild card of shooting.

However shooting is the one thing you can flat out improve dramatically with work.

 

[Mainstreet]

However shooting is the one thing you can flat out improve dramatically with work.

Fox looks to have a nice soft shot so I think he will get there.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I don't know on Isaac I'm still waiting to see all the measurables and the medical stuff. I saw him 2 games in college this year where he was visibly laboring during the game and it wasn't limping. Once he stunk for a half then came in playing much better in the 2nd half, the other time he basically stunk the whole game. I don't know if he was sick or if it was some sort of Kevon Looney situation where he has asthma?

I've heard it mentioned before, he's definitely asthmatic.

 

[sunsfan88]

I wish the Suns would send Jerry Colangelo to the lottery representing Phoenix.

 

[pokerface]

I wish the Suns would send Jerry Colangelo to the lottery representing Phoenix.

Wasn't he there when we lost the coin flip for Kareem?



No thanks... sorry Jerry!

 

[Russ Smith]

I've heard it mentioned before, he's definitely asthmatic.

Interesting I googled it and found reference to it but not "official" but in comments from fans in discussions below articles.

With Looney apparently UCLA and scouts knew about it all along but hadn't made it public. I had asthma as a kid really stopped being an issue around 13-14 but I knew the signs and it was really apparent with him. With Isaac I only saw him play a few times but again he was either sick or having trouble breathing.

 

[Mainstreet]

I think Adreian Payne had some breathing issues as well but it related to the size of his lungs.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Here is the breakdown for the second seeded team since the weighted lottery began.

1-twice
2-five times
3--five times
4--ten times
5--five times

Its always interesting to me to see the difference between probabilities and actualities. Moral of the story, #4 is where you place your bet.

How can that be considered fair? Or even "weighted"?

7 out of 27 times the 2nd worst team has been either #2 or #1???

 

[pokerface]

 

[Dr. Jones]

I just did the ESPN lottery generator a dozen times. We got a top 2 pick twice. That seems really crappy IMO.

If the NBA can screw us somehow.... it will happen.

 

[iRobot]

I just did Tankathon 10 times and 8 times we were top 2. Other 2 times we were 3rd.

 

[JCSunsfan]

4434412344

Ten times, Tankathon. Three top 3

4344441455

ESPN ten times. Only once in the top 3

I do not know why I am early awaiting this. Its going to be 4.

 

[devilalum]

I successfully put this out of my mind, then I just saw that it is Tuesday and I felt sick to my stomach. The Suns have never had a top 5 pick that was worth a damn.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I successfully put this out of my mind, then I just saw that it is Tuesday and I felt sick to my stomach. The Suns have never had a top 5 pick that was worth a damn.

We've had more failures than successes in the top 5 but your statement is not correct.

Neal Walk suffered from not being Lew Alcindor but he was certainly "worth a damn". Alvan Adams won rookie of the year and had a very good first 5 or 6 years for us. His play tailed off at a young age due to the pounding he took as an undersized big man but he was also "worth a damn". Walter Davis, also taken in the top 5, was an incredible player and had it not been for the Johnny High witch-hunt, would likely be given his rightful place in NBA history as one of the all time greats.

And we still have hopes for Bender.

 

[devilalum]

We've had more failures than successes in the top 5 but your statement is not correct.

Neal Walk suffered from not being Lew Alcindor but he was certainly "worth a damn". Alvan Adams won rookie of the year and had a very good first 5 or 6 years for us. His play tailed off at a young age due to the pounding he took as an undersized big man but he was also "worth a damn". Walter Davis, also taken in the top 5, was an incredible player and had it not been for the Johnny High witch-hunt, would likely be given his rightful place in NBA history as one of the all time greats.

And we still have hopes for Bender.

You are correct but I was reacting to the lottery. The coin flip is similar.

 

[AzStevenCal]

You are correct but I was reacting to the lottery. The coin flip is similar.

We've had bad luck on the coin toss (0 for 2) but I don't think we're anything special as far as the lottery goes. A few teams have gotten very lucky but most teams are like us. Search out other forums and on most of them you'll find similar statements about how they always get screwed in the lottery.

 

[Carolinacacti]

My feelings are. Only way Suns get screwed is if the pick is Ball. Can't wait tell Tue

 

[Mainstreet]

Alright, I did my simulated Tankathon for the 2017 NBA Draft.

Here are my results in ten tries:

4, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 1, 2, 4, 1

I will leave well enough alone, especially since getting the first pick (a second time) on the last try.

It's interesting the number 3 did not come up.

I'm glad the Suns can not fall below #5. I'd be happy with a top three pick. Of course I can hope for more.

 

[Cheesebeef]

honestly, I really want that number 1 pick so that the Suns can be the talk of the draft for months leading up to it. I'm so desperate for them to relevant again and I would love to read about people talking about adding a bona-fide possible superstar to the young core and what it might mean for the team. that would be great just as far as upping the profile of the club which for all intents and purposes has been completely off the radar for 7 years save Devin Booker's 70 and a couple other buzzer beaters he hit. But even then... if you ask the majority of leaguye fans (you know... people who don't post on message boards), they wouldn't have a clue who he is.