Mahomes at 13

[Harry]

I've never been one to duck controversy, so I want to make myself clear if the Cards choose this route. First, this is a reach. To me this is like one of those free agent deals where a team bids against itself. The Cards could trade down and still get Mahomes. I don't think anyone else sees him this early. Second, making this move with obvious roster holes means likely writing off any chance for the playoffs this year. At his age & with his health this would say to me BA is focused on his legacy as a QB whisperer, not on winning now or even soon. I know this is Keim's decision, but the QB choice is likely BA's. Third, I think Mahomes is a long shot to become a franchise QB. Sure he has skills, but did Tech win big with them? He'll get a few spectacular TDs, but he'll throw away winnable games as well. Get ready for a great deal of frustration. I saw an ESPN show that said BA might be the only coach who could control him. Is that the guy you want leading your team?

History is not on the side of this pick. How many of these gunslinger guys have made it? Everyone wants him to be the next Brett Farve. Someone will be, but in this case that's more wishful thinking. He's more likely to be the next Manziel. Simply put IMO it's just a risk not worth taking. Sure everyone wants a QBOTF, but I'd prefer a brighter future.

 

[JeffGollin]

When I read the title of this thread, I thought the topic was about the Mahomes Bar Mitvah.

 

[Goldfield]

No Mahomes for me, I see Rex Grossman

 

[juza76]

reach is something we use to hear every year and also we hear about the safest picks but moving forward are not so safe
but we can see the potential in a player and certainly mahomes is in the top of the draft about that

did u take a look in a revisited draft made by nfl.com?

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...-doover-david-johnson-goes-before-todd-gurley

we assume to know but in the end of the day we really dont know how things pan out, we are just presumptuos to know

 

[Solar7]

I've long said this, in many drafts, not just this; you need to have a dance partner to trade back, and no one is going to want to dance unless there's clearly someone they need to jump in front of to steal from another team - which is going to be particularly unclear. If you trade back, you're also running the risk of someone else knowing you want Mahomes, jumping in front of you at a cheaper price, and snagging him first. Trading back is only worth it if you have a couple of guys you'll be satisfied with, not if you're targeting one specific person. Don't get cute and be stuck holding the bag, like we were with Bryant Johnson and Calvin Pace. If you think Mahomes is the QBOTF, you take him at 13 and don't look back, because he probably isn't making it to 45.

I've said it in other threads, but I fail to see how this indicates we've given up on this year. Our "holes" are holes other teams would dream of having. A 1st round CB to possibly play at #2, or an ILB to probably back up Buc and Dansby is not going to be the sole difference maker between the playoffs and not. Same with a Mike Williams or Corey Davis, as WRs are generally not year 1 difference makers. We may not be a top 5 defense, but good enough to make the playoffs.

This team HAS to address our quarterback situation eventually. We have constantly overlooked it with the hand wringing of the fans, and frankly, this team is going to have to be REALLY bad before we have a chance to pick anyone that you're not going to think is perfect.

If this coaching staff wants Mahomes, I'll trust in them. They're not the only team or talent evaluators that see a solid player in front of them. If you want to make an argument that you have more faith in another QB, I get it, but if you just want to continue with retreads and 4th round picks at QBs until the perfect guy eventually falls in our lap, I can't get on board.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I've long said this, in many drafts, not just this; you need to have a dance partner to trade back, and no one is going to want to dance unless there's clearly someone they need to jump in front of to steal from another team - which is going to be particularly unclear. If you trade back, you're also running the risk of someone else knowing you want Mahomes, jumping in front of you at a cheaper price, and snagging him first. Trading back is only worth it if you have a couple of guys you'll be satisfied with, not if you're targeting one specific person. Don't get cute and be stuck holding the bag, like we were with Bryant Johnson and Calvin Pace. If you think Mahomes is the QBOTF, you take him at 13 and don't look back, because he probably isn't making it to 45.

I've said it in other threads, but I fail to see how this indicates we've given up on this year. Our "holes" are holes other teams would dream of having. A 1st round CB to possibly play at #2, or an ILB to probably back up Buc and Dansby is not going to be the sole difference maker between the playoffs and not. Same with a Mike Williams or Corey Davis, as WRs are generally not year 1 difference makers. We may not be a top 5 defense, but good enough to make the playoffs.

This team HAS to address our quarterback situation eventually. We have constantly overlooked it with the hand wringing of the fans, and frankly, this team is going to have to be REALLY bad before we have a chance to pick anyone that you're not going to think is perfect.

If this coaching staff wants Mahomes, I'll trust in them. They're not the only team or talent evaluators that see a solid player in front of them. If you want to make an argument that you have more faith in another QB, I get it, but if you just want to continue with retreads and 4th round picks at QBs until the perfect guy eventually falls in our lap, I can't get on board.

This

 

[football karma]

Stafford is a gunslinger that has worked out, but it's taken 5 years

 

[MartinD]

In the current ESPN magazine, Mel Kiper has the Cardinals selecting Mahomes at 13 ("extremely raw but has undeniable arm talent"). Todd McShay says the team goes for Trubisky ("natural accuracy and pocket mobility") at 13.

I'm with you on this, Harry. I don't want Mahomes as a first or second round pick. He's not as good as he needs to be to succeed behind center next year. I'd love a WR or a safety in that spot. If it has to be a QB, I'd prefer Watson.

 

[cardncubfan]

I respectfully disagree Harry. I think Mahomes will go top 20. I think he will be a heck of a lot better than most people think. This kid not only has the tools, he has the passion.

 

[juza76]

I respectfully disagree Harry. I think Mahomes will go top 20. I think he will be a heck of a lot better than most people think. This kid not only has the tools, he has the passion.

Bravo!

 

[Harry]

I've long said this, in many drafts, not just this; you need to have a dance partner to trade back, and no one is going to want to dance unless there's clearly someone they need to jump in front of to steal from another team - which is going to be particularly unclear. If you trade back, you're also running the risk of someone else knowing you want Mahomes, jumping in front of you at a cheaper price, and snagging him first. Trading back is only worth it if you have a couple of guys you'll be satisfied with, not if you're targeting one specific person. Don't get cute and be stuck holding the bag, like we were with Bryant Johnson and Calvin Pace. If you think Mahomes is the QBOTF, you take him at 13 and don't look back, because he probably isn't making it to 45.

I've said it in other threads, but I fail to see how this indicates we've given up on this year. Our "holes" are holes other teams would dream of having. A 1st round CB to possibly play at #2, or an ILB to probably back up Buc and Dansby is not going to be the sole difference maker between the playoffs and not. Same with a Mike Williams or Corey Davis, as WRs are generally not year 1 difference makers. We may not be a top 5 defense, but good enough to make the playoffs.

This team HAS to address our quarterback situation eventually. We have constantly overlooked it with the hand wringing of the fans, and frankly, this team is going to have to be REALLY bad before we have a chance to pick anyone that you're not going to think is perfect.

If this coaching staff wants Mahomes, I'll trust in them. They're not the only team or talent evaluators that see a solid player in front of them. If you want to make an argument that you have more faith in another QB, I get it, but if you just want to continue with retreads and 4th round picks at QBs until the perfect guy eventually falls in our lap, I can't get on board.

There should be quite a few partners available for trades. You mention someone perhaps jumping in front of the Cards. Quite a few of those situations will develop when there's no consensus who will go where. I'd also be astonished if the Cards don't have other players they like. To me Mahomes is a reach anywhere in round 1. It just reflects desperation to get that QBOTF at any cost. People are dismissing free agency or a trade next year. I'm not.

I would take a lower pick before Mahomes, like Kelly, especially if that lower pick has better weapons with which to work. That's the point of taking Williams or Davis early. BTW I think your under valuing their first year impact. When the Cards dropped back in the trade you mentioned they were the only ones who didn't know that was stupid. They gambled a pass rusher would be there and he wasn't. They stepped right into the dropoff hole in that draft. In this draft that point is more like pick 23.

I would submit that with a decent number 2 corner last year the Cards make the playoff. Dansby is nearing the end & I believe Buc is a free agent in 2018. The chance of finding another Foster next year is near zero. He's a probable Pro Bowler in the future. He's a game changer.

It's okay to trust the coaches, but BA initially thought Stanton could be the Cards's starting QB. Logan Thomas was supposed to be a serious option. Picking a QB is one of the hardest things in a draft. Look at the percent of failure even on early chosen players. Mahomes' team was 5-7. Franchise QBs don't typically come from losing teams if coming from a major conference.

I'm not saying it's impossible he develops. I just don't like the odds.

 

[kerouac9]

Stafford is a gunslinger that has worked out, but it's taken 5 years

Matt Stafford has been in the NFL 9 years and has 0 playoff wins to show for it. He has made like $120 million, but I don't know if it's "worked out" much more than Jay Cutler has.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Matt Stafford has been in the NFL 9 years and has 0 playoff wins to show for it. He has made like $120 million, but I don't know if it's "worked out" much more than Jay Cutler has.

One is looking for a job and the other will likely garner $25m + per season in a new deal.

 

[Solar7]

There should be quite a few partners available for trades. You mention someone perhaps jumping in front of the Cards. Quite a few of those situations will develop when there's no consensus who will go where. I'd also be astonished if the Cards don't have other players they like. To me Mahomes is a reach anywhere in round 1. It just reflects desperation to get that QBOTF at any cost. People are dismissing free agency or a trade next year. I'm not.

I would take a lower pick before Mahomes, like Kelly, especially if that lower pick has better weapons with which to work. That's the point of taking Williams or Davis early. BTW I think your under valuing their first year impact. When the Cards dropped back in the trade you mentioned they were the only ones who didn't know that was stupid. They gambled a pass rusher would be there and he wasn't. They stepped right into the dropoff hole in that draft. In this draft that point is more like pick 23.

I would submit that with a decent number 2 corner last year the Cards make the playoff. Dansby is nearing the end & I believe Buc is a free agent in 2018. The chance of finding another Foster next year is near zero. He's a probable Pro Bowler in the future. He's a game changer.

It's okay to trust the coaches, but BA initially thought Stanton could be the Cards's starting QB. Logan Thomas was supposed to be a serious option. Picking a QB is one of the hardest things in a draft. Look at the percent of failure even on early chosen players. Mahomes' team was 5-7. Franchise QBs don't typically come from losing teams if coming from a major conference.

I'm not saying it's impossible he develops. I just don't like the odds.

I do want to preface by saying I think you do a ton of great research and I've always appreciated your contributions - I don't post much, so we haven't interacted much, and I haven't had the chance to say it. So everything I say is just philosophical disagreement.

If you want to make this discussion purely "Foster vs. Mahomes," I can agree with your side more than I would the argument of "anything vs. Mahomes/QB." I can understand thinking Mahomes isn't going to succeed no matter where he's picked, and feeling that Foster is going to be an all-time, or at least pro-bowl, talent. Do you feel the same way about all potential 1st round QBs? Would this be the same feeling for Watson/Trubisky/Kizer?

What I'd really like to know is which QBs you think can lead this team and will potentially be available next year that aren't a greater risk than one of these top guys. Are you willing to dole out the huge cash investment that Garoppolo or Cousins are going to command? Knowing that their contracts will hamstring our ability to sign talent to keep around them? I have a very high opinion of Cousins, but paying $100 million to a guy that isn't one of the league's true stars scares me. I think teams DO need to be desperate to get that young QB at any cost, it's really the most important route to winning.

To the point of trade partners, I just don't see anyone behind us that has a clear target of a player that they're going to take that a later team will need to "jump ahead" of. Maybe a WR before the Ravens pick? DL before the Colts? Really, I can only envision teams moving up for QBs at this point... or one of the players on the board that you mention wanting for the Cards.

As for the CB conversation, I see a team that wanted to re-sign Marcus Cooper to man that spot, that invested a 3rd round pick in a CB they're probably not going to give up on just yet, and a CB-rich draft where in the 2nd or 3rd round, we can draft a guy to adequately produce there. A team that would have been a playoff team if we had made a few field goals. I just don't think we're that far off. And even still, there are some decent CBs on the market still post-draft.

The final thought here - no QB could win when his defense was a sieve like last year's. Give him Clemson's defense, and is that team almost undefeated? Probably.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Matt Stafford has been in the NFL 9 years and has 0 playoff wins to show for it. He has made like $120 million, but I don't know if it's "worked out" much more than Jay Cutler has.

Are there any QBs in this draft you endorse K9, even if it is a late round pick which could at least qualify for a career as a solid backup... if so, who

 

[Mitch]

I do want to preface by saying I think you do a ton of great research and I've always appreciated your contributions - I don't post much, so we haven't interacted much, and I haven't had the chance to say it. So everything I say is just philosophical disagreement.

If you want to make this discussion purely "Foster vs. Mahomes," I can agree with your side more than I would the argument of "anything vs. Mahomes/QB." I can understand thinking Mahomes isn't going to succeed no matter where he's picked, and feeling that Foster is going to be an all-time, or at least pro-bowl, talent. Do you feel the same way about all potential 1st round QBs? Would this be the same feeling for Watson/Trubisky/Kizer?

What I'd really like to know is which QBs you think can lead this team and will potentially be available next year that aren't a greater risk than one of these top guys. Are you willing to dole out the huge cash investment that Garoppolo or Cousins are going to command? Knowing that their contracts will hamstring our ability to sign talent to keep around them? I have a very high opinion of Cousins, but paying $100 million to a guy that isn't one of the league's true stars scares me. I think teams DO need to be desperate to get that young QB at any cost, it's really the most important route to winning.

To the point of trade partners, I just don't see anyone behind us that has a clear target of a player that they're going to take that a later team will need to "jump ahead" of. Maybe a WR before the Ravens pick? DL before the Colts? Really, I can only envision teams moving up for QBs at this point... or one of the players on the board that you mention wanting for the Cards.

As for the CB conversation, I see a team that wanted to re-sign Marcus Cooper to man that spot, that invested a 3rd round pick in a CB they're probably not going to give up on just yet, and a CB-rich draft where in the 2nd or 3rd round, we can draft a guy to adequately produce there. A team that would have been a playoff team if we had made a few field goals. I just don't think we're that far off. And even still, there are some decent CBs on the market still post-draft.

The final thought here - no QB could win when his defense was a sieve like last year's. Give him Clemson's defense, and is that team almost undefeated? Probably.

Well said, Solar. I think you have a good sense of the total picture and what's at stake in the short and long term. And so does Harry. Which makes this draft especially tantalizing -- because SK did not make some of the moves many of us expected him to make -- like signing a veteran CB or FS (Bethea is a SS) or RG or PR (unless Jeremy Ross is the new PR).

Compounding this is the fact that the Cardinals have aging veterans at QB (Palmer), #1WR (Fitz), LG (iupati), RT (Veldheer), ILB (Dansby), SS (Bethea), etc. Thus...suddenly this upcoming draft is critical for the upcoming season and for the future and the Cardinals only have 3 picks in the top 100.

My own chief concern is that SK is getting pressure from the media (both national and local) to "put his stamp" on a young QB -- the mark of every great GM (supposedly). And BA has conceded that he doesn't want to leave the cupboard bare at QB the way "Kenny did."

Well, BA talked SK into drafting Logan Thomas -- and within 16 months promptly cut him.

Then SK went and spent a 7th round draft pick on Matt Barkley ---and within within 10 months he's cut.

Meanwhile, even though Drew Stanton has gone 6-4 subbing for Palmer, for someone who is supposed to know BA's system so well, Stanton shows little command of it when he plays.

Which begs the question -- if SK does draft a QB --- who is the QB for?

Odd are, not for BA.

For his successor -- whomever that may be.

My hope is that BA's successor brings a fresh new philosophy, energy and creativity to AZ. I personally think this coaching staff is way too old school, predictable, sluggish and stubborn (BA, Amos Jones and more).

It would be a huge mistake, imo, to spend a high draft pick this year on a QB -- when no one knows who the new HC is going to be.
The new HC should have a say in who his QB is. Look what happened in Houston when the Texans' GM thrust Osweiller on Bill O'Brien without O'B's endorsement.

 

[kerouac9]

Are there any QBs in this draft you endorse K9, even if it is a late round pick which could at least qualify for a career as a solid backup... if so, who

I honestly haven't done the work. I don't have the time this year, and I trust Keim and Co. to generally make competent choices. That's why I think the discussions we're having are moot. Remember: this staff didn't like Derek Carr enough to draft him, and he'd be the top prospect in this class.

That said, I have heard that the Peterman kid from Pitt is generally toolsy and can be had on the second day. Maybe him.

 

[Reign Blood]

After seeing some interviews with Mahomes he looks a lot different than when he's in uniform. In uniform he looks like a gamer boy but he looks aweful young without a helmet on. He reminds me of Roethlisberger without rape status.

The Cards have done their homework and I trust the front office. As long as Adrian Wilson doesn't give a thumbs up I can agree.

 

[JeffGollin]

I don't think there's a single unit on the Cardinal roster that can withstand a rash of injuries and, therefore, could use more talent depth.

For this reason, I remain a BPA advocate.

I'm also curious to know how teams (especially the Cards) factor-in "degree of risk" into their overall ratings for each player.

QB's have a bigger impact on W's & L's but are riskier to draft. How does this affect their overall ratings.

Some players have a higher athleticism upside than others but may represent greater risks as "talented but unproven." How do teams counter-weigh high risk vs. great talent.

I think this is why this year's draft is so unpredictable - combo of more risk/reward players and more sophisticated scouting depts.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I'll be so disappointed if he is our pick at #13.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Well said, Solar. I think you have a good sense of the total picture and what's at stake in the short and long term. And so does Harry. Which makes this draft especially tantalizing -- because SK did not make some of the moves many of us expected him to make -- like signing a veteran CB or FS (Bethea is a SS) or RG or PR (unless Jeremy Ross is the new PR).

Compounding this is the fact that the Cardinals have aging veterans at QB (Palmer), #1WR (Fitz), LG (iupati), RT (Veldheer), ILB (Dansby), SS (Bethea), etc. Thus...suddenly this upcoming draft is critical for the upcoming season and for the future and the Cardinals only have 3 picks in the top 100.

My own chief concern is that SK is getting pressure from the media (both national and local) to "put his stamp" on a young QB -- the mark of every great GM (supposedly). And BA has conceded that he doesn't want to leave the cupboard bare at QB the way "Kenny did."

Well, BA talked SK into drafting Logan Thomas -- and within 16 months promptly cut him.

Then SK went and spent a 7th round draft pick on Matt Barkley ---and within within 10 months he's cut.

Meanwhile, even though Drew Stanton has gone 6-4 subbing for Palmer, for someone who is supposed to know BA's system so well, Stanton shows little command of it when he plays.

Which begs the question -- if SK does draft a QB --- who is the QB for?

Odd are, not for BA.

For his successor -- whomever that may be.

My hope is that BA's successor brings a fresh new philosophy, energy and creativity to AZ. I personally think this coaching staff is way too old school, predictable, sluggish and stubborn (BA, Amos Jones and more).

It would be a huge mistake, imo, to spend a high draft pick this year on a QB -- when no one knows who the new HC is going to be.

The new HC should have a say in who his QB is. Look what happened in Houston when the Texans' GM thrust Osweiller on Bill O'Brien without O'B's endorsement.

LG (Iupati), RT (Veldheer) turn 30 in May and June, more in their prime than aging in O-line terms.

That "old school, predictable, sluggish and stubborn" offence was second, by a few tenths, in 2015.

And where is it written that Bruce is on the verge of retirement?

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/71452/71/nfl-draft-needs-cardinals

 

[Chopper0080]

IMO, if you like a QB enough to take him in round 1, you shouldn't balk at taking him 10 picks higher than he should go. If you are willing to risk losing him for an extra 3rd round pick, then you don't like him enough to draft him in round 1.