Malcom Butler

[Syracusecards]

hope we get him

 

[football karma]

on AJ Green -- maybe the way to think about it is "what stat line would make you conclude - 'worth it'" when the season is over?

for me-- is something like 50 catches /700- 750 yds / 14-15 avg.

the average is the important part. The team didnt have a 2nd outside guy last year -- and i think its part of the reason they didnt run the number of deep ins and deep posts that get you 20 yards a completion.

 

[cardncubfan]

All I’m saying is he’s a gamble. And that those 7 pro bowls are a lot more remote than his injured and mediocre seasons. If you had to get $1,000 which way you betting? Pro bowl season or injured/mediocre season? (I acknowledge there’s a lot of space between those two - but you were trumpeting his 7 pro bowls).

Which of the two has he had more of?

 

[kerouac9]

No hyperbole. You think AJ Green hasn't been one of the best receivers over the past twenty years?

I know you are a cynic, but AJ Green has absolutely been one of the best.

Best of how many receivers? He hasn’t done anything for the past 5 years, so maybe he’s a top 10 WR from 2010-2015. What does that tell us about today?

 

[Krangodnzr]

sorry man, but that is setting a pathetically low bar. Larry was dust last season. the idea that merely being better than Fitz makes Green worth spending 6 million bucks on assumes there was no one else on the market who could have done the same or better... like the choice was well, either you bring Larry back or you have to sign Green. There were other options during FA and we'll see if that was money well spent or not. I'm hoping it was.

and your last point is just horse manure. it's a projection you WANT Darksiders to have because it's easy to argue against, but not one Darksiders has come out and said or even come close to intimating that if Green doest make the Pro Bowl he sucks. You needing to hyperbolize other's arguments only speaks to the weakness of your own.

now I come back at me with a "nah bro" or "cool story" or whatever else gaslight you got coming. just stop putting words in other people's mouths. it only makes the words coming out of yours look stupid.

Nah bro...LOL.

You guys have just bashed the move and really made no prediction at all. No balls.

And better than last years Fitzgerald IS AN IMPROVEMENT. And for a lot less!

There have been no indicators so far that Green is cooked like Fitz was. Fitz moved like pond scum all season. Green still looks spry.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Best of how many receivers? He hasn’t done anything for the past 5 years, so maybe he’s a top 10 WR from 2010-2015. What does that tell us about today?

How many receivers? LOL.

MOST of the league! Probably better than 95% of the league.

The downside to Green is worth the upside.

 

[kerouac9]

Nah bro...LOL.

You guys have just bashed the move and really made no prediction at all. No balls.

And better than last years Fitzgerald IS AN IMPROVEMENT. And for a lot less!

There have been no indicators so far that Green is cooked like Fitz was. Fitz moved like pond scum all season. Green still looks spry.

Green isn’t replacing Fitz. Fitz barely played last year. He was on the field for 66% of then offensive snaps and targeted 72 times.
The person he’s supposed to be replacing is 2018 Larry Fitzgerald: 107 targets, 93% of offensive snaps, 700+ yards and 6 TDs. That’s an acceptable and valuable season.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Green isn’t replacing Fitz. Fitz barely played last year. He was on the field for 66% of then offensive snaps and targeted 72 times.
The person he’s supposed to be replacing is 2018 Larry Fitzgerald: 107 targets, 93% of offensive snaps, 700+ yards and 6 TDs. That’s an acceptable and valuable season.

And I think he can hit those benchmarks.

 

[Russ Smith]

Best of how many receivers? He hasn’t done anything for the past 5 years, so maybe he’s a top 10 WR from 2010-2015. What does that tell us about today?

Last 3 years the 2 before that were quite good.

2016 he had over 900 yards in only 10 games. 17 over 1000 yards full 16 games, 8 TD's and that's with Brandon LaFell as the 2nd best WR on the team.

Last 3 years I agree, 2 partial years and one missed the entire season. To be fair he played all 16 last year he was just not 100% and playing with a Qb who doesn't have a strong arm and couldn't get the ball downfield to him thus all the uncatchable throws.

I don't know what to expect this year but frankly what I'm hoping for is for him to be better than Kirk or Fitz were last year. The Cards desperately need a downfield threat, Green in his prime was that guy, he's not going to be Tyreek Hill but if he can give Murray a threat downfield, and hopefully Kirk and Moore can too, it will make a huge difference in this offense. Kirk has given us flashes but he's just never been good enough to beat coverage as a #2 guy, I am expecting Green will be able to more consistently. It should also make Kirk better seeing slot coverage, and hopefully Moore too.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

If I had my last $1000 and had to take the over/under on 900 yards I'd take the over. I don;t think he's going to the pro bowl because he's WR2 but I can see him getting 900, possibly 1000.

That's not to say he's not going to get injured, anyone can, but I don't think he's more likely than anyone else.

You’re moving the goalposts. That’s not the question I asked:

Pro bowl

or

Injured and/or mediocre season (which is define as 500-600ish yards)

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

See this is the Darkside trap.

I'm not betting Pro Bowl season. I'm betting better than 2019 Larry Fitzgerald. Outside of major injury, that's all but a given.

60 receptions, 750 yards and 5 TDs is an improvement. You darksiders can't see that because if he's not a Pro Bowler, he sucks in your minds eye.

Dude YOU were the one trumpeting his 7 pro bowls. No darksiders trap. Just taking YOUR words a step further and asking a question. So what’s your answer?

also, nice bull crap final comment. I have repeatedly agreed with you that (a) he’s likely a step up from Fitz; and (b) that’s a net gain. But the issue is you koolaiders throw around pro bowls when they don’t mean squat if you think he’s putting up 750 yards which is actually fairly pedestrian.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Which of the two has he had more of?

Which of the two have been more recently in abundance? Hint: his last three, not so good. That’s three. Not two. Not one. Three years is a lot of time.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Dude YOU were the one trumpeting his 7 pro bowls. No darksiders trap. Just taking YOUR words a step further and asking a question. So what’s your answer?

also, nice bull crap final comment. I have repeatedly agreed with you that (a) he’s likely a step up from Fitz; and (b) that’s a net gain. But the issue is you koolaiders throw around pro bowls when they don’t mean squat if you think he’s putting up 750 yards which is actually fairly pedestrian.

The mention of his Pro Bowls is reason for ACTUAL hope. Not false hope. He is a guy who has had seasons were he was the best receiver in football, or near best.

We're not talking about Stephen Williams. We're not talking about Christian Kirk.

We are talking about a borderline Hall of Fame receiver. That is the point that is seemingly lost here. If I'm betting on a guy bouncing back, I'm not betting on a washed up Golden Tate. But I would bet money that AJ Green will be a significant improvement over Larry Fitzgerald.

I don't think even the most cheery assessment of AJ Green thinks he will be back to Pro Bowl form. Well maybe if you accept what DeAndre Hopkins thinks.

 

[Stout]

The mention of his Pro Bowls is reason for ACTUAL hope. Not false hope. He is a guy who has had seasons were he was the best receiver in football, or near best.

We're not talking about Stephen Williams. We're not talking about Christian Kirk.

We are talking about a borderline Hall of Fame receiver. That is the point that is seemingly lost here. If I'm betting on a guy bouncing back, I'm not betting on a washed up Golden Tate. But I would bet money that AJ Green will be a significant improvement over Larry Fitzgerald.

I don't think even the most cheery assessment of AJ Green thinks he will be back to Pro Bowl form. Well maybe if you accept what DeAndre Hopkins thinks.

His Pro Bowls are as useful a measuring stick of his talent at this stage in his career as Fitz's are. As careers wind down and players lose a step, start getting injured, etc, their past success means NOTHING if they're done. I love Fitz to death and he's one of my all-time faves, but I don't want him back. Why not? He has loads of Pro Bowls in his career. Those mean jack squat. I don't care what Green WAS; I care what he IS NOW. And if we prioritized a guy that can get us 6 or 700 yards over other more talented at this point in their career receivers, that was exceedingly stupid on Keim's part. If we'd signed him as a #3? Great! Not as a #2.

 

[kerouac9]

The mention of his Pro Bowls is reason for ACTUAL hope. Not false hope. He is a guy who has had seasons were he was the best receiver in football, or near best.

We're not talking about Stephen Williams. We're not talking about Christian Kirk.

We are talking about a borderline Hall of Fame receiver. That is the point that is seemingly lost here. If I'm betting on a guy bouncing back, I'm not betting on a washed up Golden Tate. But I would bet money that AJ Green will be a significant improvement over Larry Fitzgerald.

I don't think even the most cheery assessment of AJ Green thinks he will be back to Pro Bowl form. Well maybe if you accept what DeAndre Hopkins thinks.

False! This is where you're exaggerating beyond what you can actually back up with facts. Here's Green's DVOA by year:

2011: 17
2012: 33
2013: 41
2014: 38
2015: 7
2016: 9
2017: 63
2018: 24
2019: [IR all year]
2020: 87

A.J. Green was a really good receiver five years ago. One of the best in the NFL. When I was driving into work, I thought about describing peak A.J. Green as where between Stephon Diggs and Randy Moss. Looking at that, I think he's more on the Stephon Diggs side of the equation.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

His Pro Bowls are as useful a measuring stick of his talent at this stage in his career as Fitz's are. As careers wind down and players lose a step, start getting injured, etc, their past success means NOTHING if they're done. I love Fitz to death and he's one of my all-time faves, but I don't want him back. Why not? He has loads of Pro Bowls in his career. Those mean jack squat. I don't care what Green WAS; I care what he IS NOW. And if we prioritized a guy that can get us 6 or 700 yards over other more talented at this point in their career receivers, that was exceedingly stupid on Keim's part. If we'd signed him as a #3? Great! Not as a #2.

Exactly. Something like 54 guys had 700+ yards receiving last season. That means if he hits the number he’s an average to below average #2 wr. We could’ve set sight higher. And he’s not getting any younger so in two seasons we are right back where we were last year unless Rondale is a home run.

 

[Solar7]

Exactly. Something like 54 guys had 700+ yards receiving last season. That means if he hits the number he’s an average to below average #2 wr. We could’ve set sight higher. And he’s not getting any younger so in two seasons we are right back where we were last year unless Rondale is a home run.

Isn't Green only signed for one with the second year being an already-voided year for cap purposes? It's my understanding that of the new guys, only Watt is on a true two year deal.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Exactly. Something like 54 guys had 700+ yards receiving last season. That means if he hits the number he’s an average to below average #2 wr. We could’ve set sight higher. And he’s not getting any younger so in two seasons we are right back where we were last year unless Rondale is a home run.

There wasn't exactly a cornucopia of receiver talent. Guys like Marvin Jones were available. Not exactly gamebreakers.

What the Cardinals needed was a steady #2 who could occasionally make a big play to take some of the coverage attention away from Hopkins.

 

[Krangodnzr]

False! This is where you're exaggerating beyond what you can actually back up with facts. Here's Green's DVOA by year:

2011: 17
2012: 33
2013: 41
2014: 38
2015: 7
2016: 9
2017: 63
2018: 24
2019: [IR all year]
2020: 87

A.J. Green was a really good receiver five years ago. One of the best in the NFL. When I was driving into work, I thought about describing peak A.J. Green as where between Stephon Diggs and Randy Moss. Looking at that, I think he's more on the Stephon Diggs side of the equation.

To be accurate, let's see EVERYONE's DVOA to be able judge.

Without comparison, what does it even mean? I mean I get that he was 9th in 2016 and 24th in 2018. But where does Julio rank? Beckham? What's the career arc?

And you keep saying that it's been 5 years since he was good, and this clearly demonstrates that isn't true.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

There wasn't exactly a cornucopia of receiver talent. Guys like Marvin Jones were available. Not exactly gamebreakers.

What the Cardinals needed was a steady #2 who could occasionally make a big play to take some of the coverage attention away from Hopkins.

Curtis Samuel would’ve be a terrific target.

 

[BritCard]

False! This is where you're exaggerating beyond what you can actually back up with facts. Here's Green's DVOA by year:

2011: 17
2012: 33
2013: 41
2014: 38
2015: 7
2016: 9
2017: 63
2018: 24
2019: [IR all year]
2020: 87

A.J. Green was a really good receiver five years ago. One of the best in the NFL. When I was driving into work, I thought about describing peak A.J. Green as where between Stephon Diggs and Randy Moss. Looking at that, I think he's more on the Stephon Diggs side of the equation.

Now do Fitz

 

[Krangodnzr]

Curtis Samuel would’ve be a terrific target.

I like Samuel, but he hasn't proven much and was paid a bit too much.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I like Samuel, but he hasn't proven much and was paid a bit too much.

If he was proven he’d have cost a LOT more and likely not been available. And market is market. But he’s just an example off the top of my head.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

To be accurate, let's see EVERYONE's DVOA to be able judge.

Without comparison, what does it even mean? I mean I get that he was 9th in 2016 and 24th in 2018. But where does Julio rank? Beckham? What's the career arc?

And you keep saying that it's been 5 years since he was good, and this clearly demonstrates that isn't true.

2018 was a long time ago. Make whatever excuses you want about Burrow/Bengals, but anyone who followed Green last year knows that he was terrible, by any measure - you're taking a flyer on a guy hoping that he'll be able to turn back the clock. When Christian Kirk turns out to be a dud, you're forced to roll the dice on reclamation projects.

If people are hoping AJ Green is the solution to our offensive woes, especially in the red zone, I think they'll be disappointed.

 

[BritCard]

If he was proven he’d have cost a LOT more and likely not been available. And market is market. But he’s just an example off the top of my head.

I like Curtis. I wanted him, but they brought Green in for his experience and leadership. They identified a lack of it last year and set out to sign good pro vets.

Whether you agree or not they see Samuel and Kirk in the same light.