Marion Is The Key The Suns Next Season

[George O'Brien]

One of the biggest differences between the team this season and last is that Marion is having an "awful" year. But when you look closely, it is not that his overall game has declined. He is still getting 9.3 rpg, 2.1 steals per game, and 1.5 blocks per game. His free throw shooting is at 87.6%. Even on his shooting from the floor, his shots inside the arc are at 47%.

Yes, he is not as good as JJ at making his own shot and he still leaves his feet on fakes, etc.; but the big problem with Marion is his disasterous 3 point shooting.

In 2001-02 and and 2002-03; Marion hit right around 39% beyond the arc. This year he is hitting only 31.1%. To make matters worse, almost 1 out of 5 shots are for three.

So far this season, Shawn has hit only 59 out of 190 three point shots. If he had hit 39%, the number would be 74 which is just under a point a game.

Although 3 point shots give a lot more points per shot, Shawn would have had about the same number of points if he only shot two pointers. However, Shawn has taken 190 3's but only 170 foul shots, which suggests that he could have a lot more points if he stopped shooting threes because he would go to the line more.

Can Shawn become a better shooter? Last year Jacobsen shot only 37.3% from the field and 31.5% beyond the arc. He worked on his shot over the summer. This year he is shooting 43.1% and 42.1% beyond the arc.

If Casey can do it, why can't Shawn? Getting good shooting from Shawn as the third option in the offense would be huge. This should be a priority for the Suns this summer.

 

[elindholm]

If Casey can do it, why can't Shawn?

Because Jacobsen's shot is fundamentally sound, whereas Marion's is not. And if you think that Marion is going to abandon the shooting technique he's been using all of his life, you're dreaming.

 

[F-Dog]

Originally posted by elindholm
If Casey can do it, why can't Shawn?

Because Jacobsen's shot is fundamentally sound, whereas Marion's is not. And if you think that Marion is going to abandon the shooting technique he's been using all of his life, you're dreaming.

There are plenty of great NBA shooters with poor form--Peja isn't textbook, and Kenny Smith and Eric Piatkowski are more extreme cases.

Also, I think OB is talking about Marion getting back to where he was before, not improving beyond that. That makes a big difference.



IMO the weight that Marion put on this summer is the likeliest cause of his shooting trouble--he has never been able to adjust to it or get comfortable. If he loses the weight and spends the summer readjusting (or even if he keeps the weight and spends the summer adjusting to it) he should be a better shooter again next year.


I wouldn't claim that Marion is the key to the Suns either way, though--Joe J and Amare are both capable of stepping up or spinning their wheels, so they are at least as pivotal.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by F-Dog
There are plenty of great NBA shooters with poor form--Peja isn't textbook, and Kenny Smith and Eric Piatkowski are more extreme cases.

Also, I think OB is talking about Marion getting back to where he was before, not improving beyond that. That makes a big difference.

IMO the weight that Marion put on this summer is the likeliest cause of his shooting trouble--he has never been able to adjust to it or get comfortable. If he loses the weight and spends the summer readjusting (or even if he keeps the weight and spends the summer adjusting to it) he should be a better shooter again next year.

I wouldn't claim that Marion is the key to the Suns either way, though--Joe J and Amare are both capable of stepping up or spinning their wheels, so they are at least as pivotal.

If we look at the difference between last season and November, the biggest change was Marion. Once it became clear he was a liability shooting from the outside, teams could simply zone and not have to defense Shawn on the perimeter.

JJ has stepped into the role that Marbury was playing and Amare is still more effective on offense than defense. But if Marion can regain his outside shot and open more opportunities to get to the basket; the Suns offense would be pretty solid.

If the Suns could get good shooting from their "big three", then there would not be as much pressure on the PG to score and the inside would be opened up for the other players. It's all interconnected.

I might also point out that the need for another shooter would be reduced dramatically. The repeated demands that the Suns get Kobe is based at least in part on the notion that JJ and Amare are just not enough. The claim that the Suns should dump Marion and his salary is ultimately based on how inadequate his shooting is (although learning to keep his feet on defense would also be nice).

Does that make him the "key". I guess there are several, but as the team's only max player, his performance is a major measure.

 

[Chaplin]

I agree, as it stands now we have 4 major issues we have to deal with:

1) Team Defense
2) Shawn's Shooting/Drawing Contact
3) JJ's consistency
4) Amare's overall game, especially rebounding and position

I think it's very difficult to pick one of those as the "most crucial" part of our team's success. If anything, I'd choose #1 as the most important right now.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Chaplin
I agree, as it stands now we have 4 major issues we have to deal with:

1) Team Defense
2) Shawn's Shooting/Drawing Contact
3) JJ's consistency
4) Amare's overall game, especially rebounding and position

I think it's very difficult to pick one of those as the "most crucial" part of our team's success. If anything, I'd choose #1 as the most important right now.

I was thinking of the key player, so I agree that defense is their most overwhelming priority.

JJ's consistency? I was encouraged by how he came out after the break and shot so much better. Do you think maybe having him play 45 minute back to back games might hurt his productivity?
I am a bit concerned about JJ not protecting the ball well enough, but I think he'll be fine. Right now, his biggest challenge is learning to work with Amare but 9 assists was very encouraging.

I'm not sure that Amare is playing any worse than he was a year ago. Unfortunately, after recovering from tue surgury last summer and his injuries this season, he has not developed as fast as I would have hoped. But I have no concerns that he will keep developing.

My concern with Shawn is more fundimental. He's healthy and generally does a good job, but the decline in his shooting is a part of the reason the Suns are struggling. I think it is a key because I am in no way sure he will get it fixed. If he can't either hit his jumper or stop shooting them, his contrbution on offense will be hurt a lot.

 

[cly2tw]

Your team is doomed if its rise and decline depended on Marion's shooting %.

JJ is playing Steph's role and that's it. But the more important question is how effective he could be doing it? Would you trust him carrying this team on his back going deep into the playoffs? I have full trust in Steph's ability doing so, he does have the killer/fighter instinct and spirit in him besides his super talent.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by cly2tw
Your team is doomed if its rise and decline depended on Marion's shooting %.

JJ is playing Steph's role and that's it. But the more important question is how effective he could be doing it? Would you trust him carrying this team on his back going deep into the playoffs? I have full trust in Steph's ability doing so, he does have the killer/fighter instinct and spirit in him besides his super talent.

After spending two years telling people to be patient with JJ, that he was going to become a great player, I guess now I have to keep saying it.

In Marbury's third season, he scored 17.7 ppg averaged 40.8% and his three point shooting was 20.5%. He had 9.3 assists per game. This season JJ is scoring 16.2 ppg, 43.6% from the field (up from 39% prior to the trade) and 29.4% for three (also rising). JJ has only 4 assists per game (not bad for someone at SG) and 4.5 rpg. JJ leads the team in the fourth quarter since Stephon left.

Maybe JJ will never become first tier player, but I think he is well on his way to be at least as good as Marbury.

 

[elindholm]

After spending two years telling people to be patient with JJ

Which two years are those? You joined this board only a few months ago.

 

[cly2tw]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
After spending two years telling people to be patient with JJ, that he was going to become a great player, I guess now I have to keep saying it.

In Marbury's third season, he scored 17.7 ppg averaged 40.8% and his three point shooting was 20.5%. He had 9.3 assists per game. This season JJ is scoring 16.2 ppg, 43.6% from the field (up from 39% prior to the trade) and 29.4% for three (also rising). JJ has only 4 assists per game (not bad for someone at SG) and 4.5 rpg. JJ leads the team in the fourth quarter since Stephon left.

Maybe JJ will never become first tier player, but I think he is well on his way to be at least as good as Marbury.

George,

I thought I warned you not to use stats to backup your statements since they will lead you into quite a lot of inconsistencies.

So, JJ played well in exhibition-like games, what else is new? Marbury in his 3rd was playing with allstars KG and Googs, as well as for playoffs. And he already showed he was clutch and was able to perform under pressure. Can your stats tell you about all these?

Marbury is IMHO the best PG right now, and for the forseable future, but at least among the best three along with JK and Davis. Which level would you think JJ would achieve on the SG position? Ray Allen? Maggette? Redd? Richardson?

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by cly2tw
George,

I thought I warned you not to use stats to backup your statements since they will lead you into quite a lot of inconsistencies.

So, JJ played well in exhibition-like games, what else is new? Marbury in his 3rd was playing with allstars KG and Googs, as well as for playoffs. And he already showed he was clutch and was able to perform under pressure. Can your stats tell you about all these?

Marbury is IMHO the best PG right now, and for the forseable future, but at least among the best three along with JK and Davis. Which level would you think JJ would achieve on the SG position? Ray Allen? Maggette? Redd? Richardson?

I have said before, I do not really like Stephon's game and I do not think he is a super star. I got really irritated at how many times he would shoot the Suns out of rallys because he would rather jack up an early three point brick than run the offense. I cannot count the number of times I got sick of watching him dribbling around on the outside trying to drive to the basket against a double team and inducing the rest of his teammates to just stand around and wait for a pitch out. I got sick of watching him always look for his own shot first and second before everything else.

Last year Stephon did a decent job for the Suns. This year he stank. He never seemed to understand that the old "illegal defense" rules are gone and the way to win is passing not dribbling. For guy who is supposed to be a dominating super star, he looked too much like a "me-first" ball hog who was as likely to make a bad decision as a good one.

Stephon is not a terrible player. He does a lot of good things, But he is not a great player. I am not surprised that he is doing better on a team better suited to his style, but great players make other player look good no matter what. Stephon doesn't.

 

[cly2tw]

George,

so you vented your frustration about Steph. How good will JJ be comparing to the current SG in the NBA? Give us some hope if you want the team built around Amare and JJ as the best talent!

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by cly2tw
George,

so you vented your frustration about Steph. How good will JJ be comparing to the current SG in the NBA? Give us some hope if you want the team built around Amare and JJ as the best talent!

The question is not really how good JJ IS, but how good will he be. I don't know. The guys that might be rated more highly are all older and MUCH more expensive. Go to the Celtics boards and they are still moaning about giving up on JJ so early, but they would not trade Paul Pierce for him (yet!) Right now I see him playing at a third tier level and I think he has a very good chance of becoming a second tier guy. Top tier? That is too hard to determine.

Can you win without a top tier player? It is hard to say because winning tends to elevate our opinion of the player. Is Predrag Stojakovic a top tier player or just a great shooter on the right team? If they win it all this year, I'm sure he will get mentioned with Kobe and T-Mac; but he might not be that good on a different team.

I'm guessing JJ will be a second tier player who will be dependent on a good supporting cast to win. If they win it, then everyone will say HE is a top tier player.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
After spending two years telling people to be patient with JJ, that he was going to become a great player, I guess now I have to keep saying it.

Man, I just can't believe how many people love to pat themselves on the back! Since Eric is correct, are you asking us to assume you have been touting JJ for 2 years? Heh.

 

[Errntknght]

The key to next season and beyond is the head coach - he's the one that decides how to structure the defense, has an offense where Marion spends the bulk of his time on the perimeter and he will probably play a major role in how consistent JJ becomes. It's also his responsibility to see that Amare learns his defensive and rebounding roles.

Frankly, I have no idea how good this team can be because they've been playing inferior schemes at both ends of the floor. There's clearly some talent on the roster but whether they can be molded into an effective team is an open question. I don't think D'A has it in him to do the job though he's a step up from FJ. He could help himself a lot if he's smart enough to realize he needs help coaching that he isn't getting from his assistants. The crew he has working for him seem to all be teachers of individual skills, rather than gurus of the team aspects of the game. There was certainly no evidence in FJ's tenure that his assistants were any help with this crucial part of the game. Larry Bird was smart enough to get Rick Carlisle to be his minister of defense, and I seriously doubt if D'A knows more than Bird about D in the NBA. The evidence is mounting that Mike needs an offensive 'coordinator' as well.

BTW, I idon't read too much into the fact that the Suns have been staying close to their oppenents - they could have just underestimated the Suns because of their record and the upheaval and not brought their A game. Staying close is better than getting blown out every night to be sure, but it doesn't neceassarily mean the Suns are close to being competitive.