Maybe letting Amare go wasn't such a bad idea

[Azlen]

It's an insider article and I don't think we are supposed to post the full text but I'll post some of the highlights.

The Suns are looking much more intelligent in not signing Amare to a max deal.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...mire-stunning-decline-knicks-very-worried-nba

The 7-11 Knicks are reeling and there are a number of reasons for their disappointing start, but right at the top of the list is the sudden decline of their big catch in the summer of 2010 sweepstakes. In his second campaign in a Knicks uniform, Stoudemire is averaging 17.8 points, 8.4 rebounds -- fantastic numbers for an NBA player, but not one who is due $83 million, or an average of $20.8 million annually, through 2015-16.
And a deeper look into Stoudemire's stat line explains why his production has fallen off a cliff: He can't hit a shot. With a quarter of the season in the books, the 29-year-old power forward has shot 42.6 percent from the floor.
How bad is that? Consider this: Over the past 40 years, it's only happened three times that someone at his height or taller (6-foot-10) shot this often (15 shots per game) and this badly (42.6 percent). And the three players who achieved the sorry feat (Clifford Robinson, Derrick Coleman and Toni Kukoc) each shot at least 120 3-pointers in those seasons. Nearly all of Stoudemire's shots have come from inside the arc.
In other words, a traditional big man has never shot this much and this badly in about half a century. You'd have to dial it back to Nate Thurmond in the mid-60s to find a precedent.
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Let's start with the stuffed shots, which is alarming coming from a guy who used to make a living by dunking on mere mortals. Only Derrick Rose got blocked more times than Stoudemire last season according to Hoopdata.com, but this season Stoudemire's blocked rate has only increased -- drastically. On the season, Stoudemire has been blocked on 10.2 percent of his shots, which is up from 8.1 percent last season. The average power forward gets swatted on 7.1 percent of his shots.
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But the swats are just the tip of the iceberg. When looking at indicators of lost athleticism, you can't help wondering if something's up. Stoudemire's and-one rate (percentage of shots called for an and-one) has dropped precipitously from 6.5 percent in 2009-10, to 4.9 percent last season, to 3.3 percent this season. He has tallied one and-one over his past eight games; in his last season in Phoenix, he muscled for one every game on average. It's always a troubling sign when the blocked rate and and-one rate go in opposite directions.
The defensive indicators are also stunning. His block rate has vanished almost completely, dropping from 3.8 percent last season to a career-low 1.1 percent this season. Subjectively, one could say that he's lost the majority of his lift -- whether that's due to age, a residual ankle soreness or something else, but we can't know for sure. Objectively looking at the numbers, the red flags are everywhere.
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And we haven't even talked much about his embarrassing defense, but he's consistently ranked as one of the league's most skewed one-way players. What happens when he can't produce offensively anymore? Even though there are more than 45 games left, it's hard to imagine a worse start for Stoudemire unless he sustained a serious injury.
Speaking of injuries, it's worth noting that many people around the league considered it a medical miracle that Stoudemire was able to play as well as he did last season given the state of his knees. It is simply very unlikely that he will ever be able to regain the athleticism he had in Phoenix, much less be a star player going forward.
With his shooting woes reaching historic depths and more than $80 million remaining on his contract, the time for Knicks fans to panic about Stoudemire is right about now.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think this can be attributed to his knees. When the Suns played the Knicks earlier this season, they were talking about Amare's health. They stated that Amare will need to take games off this season to rest the knees.

That says it all. That means the knees are bothering him and if that is happening that would explain most of what is going on above.

 

[Mainstreet]

Amare did the right thing by signing a max contract (100M) with the Knicks. They were the only team willing to sign him to such a large uninsured contract. His health has been a concern for some years now. It's hard to blame him for taking the money when he had a chance.

I don't think anyone blames Sarver for not giving him to this type of contract, however, it would have been nice to get something in return besides a trade exception. I believe even getting a trade exception had to be explained to the Suns FO.

I wish Amare well. IMO, he would have stayed in Phoenix if the Suns could have given him the money the Knicks did.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The real problem is the Knicks overpaying. Sarver did not believe a team would do it. But the Knicks have money to burn. It hasnt gotten them a 'ship but it did cost the Suns. Denver played them well; the Suns did not. Funny thing is that if Amare had been as more selfish like Carmelo; the Suns could have gotten a better deal.

 

[JustWinBaby]

I think this can be attributed to his knees. When the Suns played the Knicks earlier this season, they were talking about Amare's health. They stated that Amare will need to take games off this season to rest the knees.

That says it all. That means the knees are bothering him and if that is happening that would explain most of what is going on above.

I don't think it is his knees at all. He put on 20 pounds of muscle this off season and appears slower. I can't remember an elite athlete that put on weight and helped their game. Amare's advantage was quickness, he needs to keep that. I think the additional weight could ultimately hurt his knees and it was a dumb move on his part. He also is not getting the scoring opportunities he did with Nash and more recently Felton. He is getting the ball in unfamiliar spots on the court.

I think it is premature to suggest his demise.

 

[JustWinBaby]

Amare did the right thing by signing a max contract (100M) with the Knicks. They were the only team willing to sign him to such a large uninsured contract. His health has been a concern for some years now. It's hard to blame him for taking the money when he had a chance.

I don't think anyone blames Sarver for not giving him to this type of contract, however, it would have been nice to get something in return besides a trade exception. I believe even getting a trade exception had to be explained to the Suns FO.

I wish Amare well. IMO, he would have stayed in Phoenix if the Suns could have given him the money the Knicks did.

Wow

A good sensible post on Amare.

My feelings almost entirely except that Sarver should have traded him at the deadline, that was his only chance to get something in return. Bob obviously was not going to resign him. If you think otherwise, you are wrong.

There are far too many just waiting for him to fail. Why?

 

[SunsTzu]

I don't think it is his knees at all. He put on 20 pounds of muscle this off season and appears slower.

I wasn't aware he bulked up, I recall after his micro-fracture surgery he made a conscious effort to slim down to reduce wear on his knees. Whatever the reason he does look much, much slower out there. Even last year he was blowing by guys with his first step, this year every time I see him drive he gets cut off or trapped under the bucket.

 

[BC867]

I think it is premature to suggest his demise.

Demise -- not yet. Decline -- it has already begun.

At best he was a stat superstar. An incomplete ballplayer with fancy offensive numbers and a few spectacular offensive plays.

'Sort of sounds like a bigger version of Hakim Warrick.

How ironic that he chose STAT as his nickname.

In all fairness to Amare, he should never have been played at Center with the Suns, especially as our only big man on the court. It was asking for trouble.

 

[BillsCarnage]

I wish Amare well. IMO, he would have stayed in Phoenix if the Suns could have given him the money the Knicks did.

IIRC, they did offer him a similar contract, money-wise, but would not guarantee the last two(?) years because of concerns w/ the knees.

I don't think it's as much his knees as just a lousy overall situation. The Melo trade screwed that whole team up and then signing Chandler really made Amare the odd man out.

I reckon if he were still here w/ the Suns' training staff and the style of play here he wouldn't have the problems as much as they are in NY.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Wow

A good sensible post on Amare.

My feelings almost entirely except that Sarver should have traded him at the deadline, that was his only chance to get something in return. Bob obviously was not going to resign him. If you think otherwise, you are wrong.

There are far too many just waiting for him to fail. Why?

I think otherwise. He had very little value at that point. In addition to the knee issues he was bouncing back from an eye injury that was a potential career ender. IIRC, it wasn't until the middle of January that he started to come around and although he went into the All Star break playing great, he was drawing very little trade interest. The risks were just too great and 4 or 5 weeks of solid play weren't enough to convince any of the possible suitors especially since he was about to become a free agent.

I do believe we should have traded Amare but for me, that time was several years ago. I would have traded him about the time that his mother re-entered civilian life. Not drawing a connection but around the same time came that injury situation where he lingered on the shelf for a few extra games until Jerry visited with him. These kind of things should have dinged some warning bells. We'd already had ample evidence by then that he really wasn't all that coachable.

His unwillingness to play defense was IMO an ego issue on his part. He believed that points (especially slam dunks) was what it took to make him a superstar and playing defense brought foul problems not baskets. He was a hard worker and did a lot of things very well but IMO he was worth more at that time in trade than he would ever be worth on the court. After that period though we never again really had a good chance to trade him for fair value.

Steve

 

[mojorizen7]

Well if given the choice between 2 great offensive players that both can't play a lick of defense....i would've kept the 6'10" guy over the PG.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Well if given the choice between 2 great offensive players that both can't play a lick of defense....i would've kept the 6'10" guy over the PG.

All things being equal, I'd agree. The problem is, not all things were equal. We should have traded Amare many years ago and turned Steve into a combo guard, backing up the one and playing a little two guard when the situation called for it.

Steve

 

[Phrazbit]

Wow

A good sensible post on Amare.

My feelings almost entirely except that Sarver should have traded him at the deadline, that was his only chance to get something in return. Bob obviously was not going to resign him. If you think otherwise, you are wrong.

There are far too many just waiting for him to fail. Why?

The Suns tried to trade him and they couldnt even get the Cavs to budge on JJ Hickson. Amare's value around the league was pretty low.

If we really want to use hindsight and the right spot to move Amare it would have been for Garnett after the 07 season.

 

[SunsTzu]

Well if given the choice between 2 great offensive players that both can't play a lick of defense....i would've kept the 6'10" guy over the PG.

A 6'10 PF/C who doesn't play defense is much more harmful than a PG that doesn't. Not to mention the vast gap in their offensive impact.

 

[Phrazbit]

Well if given the choice between 2 great offensive players that both can't play a lick of defense....i would've kept the 6'10" guy over the PG.

All things being equal I would agree. But in our case the PG made the 6'10" what he is.

Im glad the Suns are not stuck with Amare right now. At least this team has the opportunity to rebuild. If Amare were here it would be 4 or 5 years before the team could would have money to work with again.

 

[Griffin]

I wonder if NY jumped the gun when they settled for Amare after LeBron, Wade and Bosh signed with Miami. In retrospect, had they held on to their cap space for two more years and passed on Carmelo as well, they would have been in prime position to sign both Howard and Deron Williams in 2012. But they were already waiting for the big 2010 summer for two years, so that would have meant wasting four years total after they've started clearing cap space. The fan base would have revolted. But building a team around Amare and Carmelo without any plan to get a real PG for that system didn't seem like a great formula for success then or now.

I know it's a big assumption that Howard and/or Williams would have signed with NY, but there won't be that many suitors with cap space this summer and none would have been more appealing than NY, imo. That would have left them with a core of Howard, Williams, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Toney Douglas, Landry Fields, Iman Shumpert and another high first rounder in 2012. That seems like a much more potent roster than Stoudemire, Anthony and Chandler especially in the long-term. I wonder if NY fans are starting to regret the moves NY made over the last two seasons.

 

[SunsTzu]

I wonder if NY jumped the gun when they settled for Amare after LeBron, Wade and Bosh signed with Miami.

Amare was the 1st big name FA to sign. NY was hoping he signing him would convince another big time FA to sign.

 

[95pro]

i think carmelo has had a negative impact on the knicks and amare. when amare was without melo, he went on a scoring tear. this year, the knicks look like **** - plain and simple.

 

[Mainstreet]

i think carmelo has had a negative impact on the knicks and amare. when amare was without melo, he went on a scoring tear. this year, the knicks look like **** - plain and simple.

I wonder if either player (Carmelo or Amare) have any positive trade value especially considering the size of their contracts.

This is not a good position. If a team has "supposedly" two stars in their prime they should command considerable trade value. Such is not the case as I view it.

 

[Covert Rain]

i think carmelo has had a negative impact on the knicks and amare. when amare was without melo, he went on a scoring tear. this year, the knicks look like **** - plain and simple.

I listened to that interview with the Knicks beat writer and even though I still think Amare's knees has something to do with it the guy made a convincing argument about Carmelo. He said the offense this year is run through Carmelo and that Amare is no longer the go to guy. He feels it has impacted Amare's game.

He basically said what many of you are saying. Carmelo is incompatible with the team and he feels the main reason Amare's numbers are down.

 

[Bufalay]

The Knicks messed up when they let Isaiah take control and trade away an entire starting lineup for Carmelo. They should've just waited and signed him in the offseason, where they probably would've only lost Wilson Chander. I also don't understand why they gave Tyson Chandler so much money. He isn't that good.

 

[Phrazbit]

The Knicks messed up when they let Isaiah take control and trade away an entire starting lineup for Carmelo. They should've just waited and signed him in the offseason, where they probably would've only lost Wilson Chander. I also don't understand why they gave Tyson Chandler so much money. He isn't that good.

Amare and Melo are a bad pairing to begin with. I agree, letting Isiah have any say in anything is a mistake though. That man has been an utter disaster at every under taking since removing his jersey.

Amare and Melo are both guys who need to a ton of possessions in order to be effective on offense, and neither are effective on defense. They dont belong on the same team. The Knicks should have used all those players and picks to get Chris Paul, a much more complimentary piece.

But I agree about Chandler. Another dumb, overpaid signing in a desperate attempt to grab a name without regard to the fit on the roster.

 

[Budden]

Amare and Melo are a bad pairing to begin with. I agree, letting Isiah have any say in anything is a mistake though. That man has been an utter disaster at every under taking since removing his jersey.

Amare and Melo are both guys who need to a ton of possessions in order to be effective on offense, and neither are effective on defense. They dont belong on the same team. The Knicks should have used all those players and picks to get Chris Paul, a much more complimentary piece.

But I agree about Chandler. Another dumb, overpaid signing in a desperate attempt to grab a name without regard to the fit on the roster.

Haha, who knows about Isiah having anything to do with the Melo trade. Although, if Knicks owner James Dolan did allow Thomas to influence the decision making, at least we can take solace in the realization that even spend-happy owners like Dolan can Sarverate a team into mediocrity.

To the point of this thread though, I live in New York and.. I'm not sure that "get to watch" is the correct phrase.. but, well, the Knicks are on television a lot, and so I've watched them play a lot this year. Melo is a real ball-stopper, and that doesn't help the fluidity of an offense, or in turn, Amar'e's offensive opportunities. Having said that, Amar'e just looks terrible right now. Keep in mind that, for a solid year - the second half of his last Suns' season and the first half of his first Knicks' season - he was playing the best basketball of his career. So, I find it hard to believe that in the span of 8 months, Amar'e could go from being in his prime to being an over-the-hill stiff who gets rejected at the rim by Robin Lopez. When we played the Knicks, and Lopez blocked Amar'e's dunk attempt, did anybody have flashbacks to the 2005 WCF when Amar'e blocked that Tim Duncan dunk attempt?

All in all, I think we've seen this kind of play from Amar'e before. Remember when he came back from his retina injury? During that first half of that season, Nash really carried this team, and Amar'e looked a lot like he does right now - stiff, unathletic, uncoordinated, etc. A couple of months later, he did this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_k5F07FK8nA&feature=fvst

Watching him now, I really get worried that this time, he truly has lost it. But I know we've all felt that way before, and hey - he's a good guy, right? For his sake, I hope he'll get back to form.

 

[JustWinBaby]

I am not an Isiah defender by any means but I think he is being falsely accused in the Chandler acquisition. I think he said that was not a good move and that they would no longer have any capable guards after dumping Billups.

I think he backed the Carmelo trade. If so that is what created the mess they currently have. The Chandler signing appears to have compounded the problem.

Could they have reacquired Billups if he would have cleared waivers, under the new CBA?

Chauncey landed on his feet but did he want back with the Knicks or did he want free agency?

If you put Billups on that roster they probably would have an entirely different record.

Shannon Brown would be an upgrade at the PG position for the current Knick roster.

 

[Budden]

I am not an Isiah defender by any means but I think he is being falsely accused in the Chandler acquisition. I think he said that was not a good move and that they would no longer have any capable guards after dumping Billups.

I think he backed the Carmelo trade. If so that is what created the mess they currently have. The Chandler signing appears to have compounded the problem.

Could they have reacquired Billups if he would have cleared waivers, under the new CBA?

Chauncey landed on his feet but did he want back with the Knicks or did he want free agency?

If you put Billups on that roster they probably would have an entirely different record.

Shannon Brown would be an upgrade at the PG position for the current Knick roster.

In my not-so-humble opinion, the Chandler acquisition was a great one - considering the team's make-up before the acquisition. The Knicks were clearly planning to build around Melo and Amar'e. Whether or not that pairing turns out to be a good one is still to be determined, but that's a little bit beside the point here, because no matter what our opinions might be, obviously the Knicks front office made those moves last season believing they would pan off in the long run. So, the Chandler signing was designed to give them tenacity, rebounding and shot-blocking on the interior for the 76 games (or 60, this season) in which Amar'e Stoudemire doesn't bring those qualities to the court. If the media is going to bill Chandler as the third member of the Knicks' "big three", then his play is going to disappoint. However, if you look at the teams that Chandler has been on, they have so often been one of those surprise teams that sort of comes out of nowhere. I think the Knicks brass envisioned him filling the same type of role that he did when he was in Dallas or in New Orleans - Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Paul are going to get all of the accolades, but Chandler gives them a little bit of a nudge in the right direction so they can really shine.

As for the Knicks' pg situation, it's bleak, but Chauncey Billups and a $14 million contract was not going to help. He's really just not very good anymore, but he attempts the same type of plays as if he is. He jogs up the court, dribbles for a few seconds, passes it, and then if he gets it back with anything less than 12 seconds on the shot clock, he just chucks up a contested 3-pointer from a couple of feet behind the line. But, I think people are going to be really surprised by what Barron Davis ends up bringing to the team. Even during his overweight days, his team was still much better with him on the court than without him. He looks like he's at least in good shape - I think he grew that hideous neck beard to cover up his chins when he got fat, but looking at him in warm-ups, etc. there is some jaw-line definition that has underneath that has been seriously lacking in recent years. He's a tremendous basketball I.Q. guy, and his on-court presence might just be enough to infuse some much-needed fluidity into D'Antoni's stagnant, muddy offense as it is today.