MCU: Captain America: Brave New World

[Stout]

I’m intrigued by Thunderbolts, but only because I love Florence Pugh and think her Elena character is one of the only good new ones in the universe (along with Shang-Chi).

I love quite a few of them. Hers, Bucky, Ladyhawke (can't remember her real name), Red Guardian, and maybe even Zemo. This movie just seems fun.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Man… has any franchise ever coasted on the goodwill Marvel’s bought itself with everything leading up to Endgame? By most accounts, very few people dig Mackie as Cap, the movie is apparently super mid and the brand alone still drags this to a 100 million dollar opening.

It’ll fall like a rock next week, but impressive considering everything.

My question is this though… what if the next two years of movies don’t work? Will Thunderbolts actually be a hit? Dubious. F4 I can see being a decent hit if it’s just decent. But what if the whole RDJ as Doom thing doesn’t work and people don’t go gaga over this new batch of Avengers?

The weekend 2 numbers are going to be interesting to see with the word of mouth on it. Week 1 is still living off of the legacy like you mentioned. So do we see a 70+% drop like with most of the phase 4 movies or can it have better legs?

For your question, I think the next 2 years might be rough and that it'll lead to a soft reboot where they reset a bunch of the narrative mistakes they've made to try to get back on track. I don't think Thunderbolts will a huge hit and I'm really not sure on FF. My gut is saying Love and Thunder type of numbers but I could see it breaking a bit higher if things hit right. I'm skeptical of that though.

 

[Stout]

Man, a reboot would be dumb. Hard pass.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Man, a reboot would be dumb. Hard pass.

A full one yes, I think they need to do a bit of a soft one though where they mainly get rid of the multiverse. It was a bad move to make and they need to correct it. It's lazy writing since it makes for no real stakes and everything can be undone.

 

[Cheesebeef]

The weekend 2 numbers are going to be interesting to see with the word of mouth on it. Week 1 is still living off of the legacy like you mentioned. So do we see a 70+% drop like with most of the phase 4 movies or can it have better legs?

For your question, I think the next 2 years might be rough and that it'll lead to a soft reboot where they reset a bunch of the narrative mistakes they've made to try to get back on track. I don't think Thunderbolts will a huge hit and I'm really not sure on FF. My gut is saying Love and Thunder type of numbers but I could see it breaking a bit higher if things hit right. I'm skeptical of that though.

They’d prob be over the moon with Love And Thunder money from F4.

 

[oaken1]

They’d prob be over the moon with Love And Thunder money from F4.

Agree. I'm a huge F4 fan and this edition looks like the biggest F4 flop yet

 

[Dan H]

A full one yes, I think they need to do a bit of a soft one though where they mainly get rid of the multiverse. It was a bad move to make and they need to correct it. It's lazy writing since it makes for no real stakes and everything can be undone.

That's pretty much implied with the upcoming Secret Wars storyline.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Agree. I'm a huge F4 fan and this edition looks like the biggest F4 flop yet

Interesting. I’m not a big F4 guy, but I think this will easily be the biggest success over the previous two abominable attempts at starting the franchise.

 

[oaken1]

Interesting. I’m not a big F4 guy, but I think this will easily be the biggest success over the previous two abominable attempts at starting the franchise.

The first one was better than the last one.
But with this one I just can't get past what they did to Ben Grimms voice

 

[GatorAZ]

The Ringer ppl are panning this movie. Sounds like a mess with the bad CGI and reshoots.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Oof, only $28m domestic this weekend. A 68% drop. It's dead Jim. This is going to be another money loser. Marvel really needs a reset and I think that starts with replacing Feige at this point. He's really killed his legacy with Phase 4 and 5. He really should have rode off into the sunset as a legend after Endgame.

 

[PDXChris]

Oof, only $28m domestic this weekend. A 68% drop. It's dead Jim. This is going to be another money loser. Marvel really needs a reset and I think that starts with replacing Feige at this point. He's really killed his legacy with Phase 4 and 5. He really should have rode off into the sunset as a legend after Endgame.

While I agree with everything else you said, I think it'll sqeek out a tiny profit. It's close to $300 million worldwide and needs to make $400 million between theater and VOD to break even. International was pretty even from week 1 to week 2. The UK anf SK were even up over week 1.

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Captain America: Brave New World

www.boxofficemojo.com

 

[Devilmaycare]

While I agree with everything else you said, I think it'll sqeek out a tiny profit. It's close to $300 million worldwide and needs to make $400 million between theater and VOD to break even. International was pretty even from week 1 to week 2. The UK anf SK were even up over week 1.

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Captain America: Brave New World

www.boxofficemojo.com

It needs to make a lot more than $400m to break even. It has a $180m budget but that's before they reshot the entire film 3 times plus additional reshoots. The actual budget is most likely north of $300m. Even with the $180m they need to pull in over $500m.

The general rule of thumb is 3x budget to break even to account for marketing and the box office splits. For domestic the studio get 60% of box office. For international it varies between 20-50% depending on the country.

 

[PDXChris]

It needs to make a lot more than $400m to break even. It has a $180m budget but that's before they reshot the entire film 3 times plus additional reshoots. The actual budget is most likely north of $300m. Even with the $180m they need to pull in over $500m.

The general rule of thumb is 3x budget to break even to account for marketing and the box office splits. For domestic the studio get 60% of box office. For international it varies between 20-50% depending on the country.

That is where I got the number from.

Captain America: Brave New World is approaching $300 million at the global box office, but a 68% drop in domestic revenue during its second weekend may make it hard for the MCU movie to break even.

According to Deadline, Captain America: Brave New World had a production budget of $180 million, and has a break-even point of around $425 million.

The Anthony Mackie-fronted action movie beat estimates with a $100 million domestic box office haul over the Presidents Day weekend, but with $28.2 million domestic during its second weekend, Cap’s 68% domestic box office drop is similar to that of 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania, which ended up failing to break even.

Captain America: Brave New World Nears $300 Million Global Box Office After 68% Domestic Drop Second Weekend - IGN

Captain America: Brave New World is approaching $300 million at the global box office, but a 68% drop in domestic revenue during its second weekend may make it hard for the MCU movie to break even.

www.ign.com

 

[Devilmaycare]

That is where I got the number from.

Captain America: Brave New World Nears $300 Million Global Box Office After 68% Domestic Drop Second Weekend - IGN

Captain America: Brave New World is approaching $300 million at the global box office, but a 68% drop in domestic revenue during its second weekend may make it hard for the MCU movie to break even.

www.ign.com

It's IGN, no surprise they're off. The author isn't accounting for everything that needs to be accounted for in it. They're using the base budget and not accounting for the extra spends outside of it.