Mock Draft--4/22

[F-Dog]

I was bored, so I made up a mock draft.

I don't pretend to know how the players are going to shake out, but I figured I could get an idea of the general trends. What I found was that the players who have entered recently seem to be knocking more and more "mid-first-round picks" down the draft board.

HS kids better get a guarantee this year.


I gave Atlanta the #2 pick because I felt like it, but I tried to have good reasons for the actual picks:

1. Orlando            Emeka Okafor, F/C (6'9", 250)
2. Atlanta            [COLOR=DarkSlateGray]Dwight Howard, F/C (6'10", 240)[/COLOR]
3. Chicago            Luol Deng, SF (6'8", 220)
4. Charlotte          [COLOR=DarkSlateGray]Shaun Livingston, PG (6'7", 175)[/COLOR]
5. Washington         [COLOR=DarkGreen]Andris Biedrins, F/C (6'11", 240)[/COLOR]
6. LA Clippers        Ben Gordon, PG (6'1", 185)
[B]7. Phoenix            [COLOR=DarkGreen]Kosta Perovic, C (7'2", 240)[/COLOR][/B]
8. Toronto            [COLOR=DarkSlateGray]Josh Smith, SF (6'8", 220)[/COLOR]
9. Philadelphia       Devin Harris, PG (6'3", 185)
10. Cleveland         [COLOR=DarkGreen]Pavel Podkolzine, C (7'5", 300)[/COLOR]
11. Golden State      Andre Iguodala, G/F (6'6", 210)
12. Seattle           [COLOR=DarkGreen]Tiago Splitter, F/C (6'11", 240)[/COLOR]
13. Portland          [COLOR=DarkSlateGray]Sebastion Telfair, PG (6'0", 170)[/COLOR]
14. Utah              Josh Childress, G/F (6'8", 200)
15. Boston            [COLOR=DarkGreen]Peja Samardziski, F/C (6'11", 240)[/COLOR]
[B]16. Utah              [COLOR=DarkSlateGray]Al Jefferson, PF (6'8", 250)[/COLOR][/B]
17. Atlanta           Hakim Warrick, F (6'8", 200)
18. New Orleans       [COLOR=DarkSlateGray]JR Smith, SG (6'5", 210)[/COLOR]
19. Miami             Jameer Nelson, PG (5'11", 190)
20. Denver            Kirk Snyder, SG (6'6", 220)
21. Utah              [COLOR=DarkGreen]PJ Ramos, C (7'3", 280)[/COLOR]
22. New Jersey        Luke Jackson, G/F (6'7", 215)
23. Portland          David Harrison, C (7'0", 280)
24. Boston            Kris Humphries, PF (6'8", 240)
25. Boston            [COLOR=DarkGreen]Marcelo Huertas, PG (6'3", 185)[/COLOR]
26. Sacramento        Rafael Araujo, C (6'11", 290)
27. LA Lakers         Chris Duhon, PG (6'1", 190)
28. San Antonio       [COLOR=DarkGreen]Sergei Monya, G/F (6'7", 220)[/COLOR]
29. Indiana           [COLOR=DarkSlateGray]Dorrell Wright, SG (6'7", 195)[/COLOR]
30. Orlando           Tony Allen, G (6'4", 205)

College--15
High School--7
Foreign--8

Left out:

PG: Roko Leni Ukic, Blake Stepp, Marcus Moore
SG: Rickey Paulding, Aleksander Vujacic, Andre Emmitt
SF: Ivan Chiriaev, Ryan Gomes, Viktor Khryapa, Trevor Ariza, Luka Bogdanovic, Christian Drejer
PF: Jaime Lloreda, Anderson Varejao
C: Ha Seung-Jin


It looks to me like either Josh Smith or Biedrins will be available when the Suns pick.

 

[Joe Mama]

Let me just say that I think Josh Childress will be a good rookie for someone next season.

Joe Mama

 

[F-Dog]

Let me just say that I think Josh Childress will be a good rookie for someone next season.

Joe Mama

Agreed.

It wouldn't surprise me if Childress wound up in the draft's top ten, actually.

 

[khilari]

I think that we should trade down and select Al Jefferson because he is going to be a very good player in this league for a long time.

 

[slinslin]

I think we trade our pick, even if we don't trade for TMac for example. Pick costs capspace and I would definately not risk 2M$ capspace on someone like Perovic.

 

[Freddie]

I don't see Golden State selecting another wing player.

 

[nathan]

Let me just say that I think Josh Childress will be a good rookie for someone next season.

He kind of reminds me of Jared Jeffries: multi-skilled but not a top level athlete. That said, I still think he'll be a decent player but not much of a star.

 

[George O'Brien]

Not unreasonable. We won't even know who is in for a few weeks.

1. Orlando Emeka Okafor, F/C (6'9", 250)

He is sure to go first unless he is a lot shorter than listed.

2. Atlanta Dwight Howard, F/C (6'10", 240)

He is certain to 2nd if Atlanta drafts. Chicago or Washington is less likely - they may trade out.

3. Chicago Luol Deng, SF (6'8", 220)

He is probably the 3rd best player in the draft. I think the Suns or the Clippers are the only teams that wouldn't take him because he doesn't fit their needs.

4. Charlotte Shaun Livingston, PG (6'7", 175)

I think they take Deng if he is available and maybe Gordon.

5. Washington Andris Biedrins, F/C (6'11", 240)

I think they need a wing man to replace Stackhouse more than another PF/C.

6. LA Clippers Ben Gordon, PG (6'1", 185)

This looks like a good fit. The Clips need a PG and they think he might be the guy. I would not be shocked if they went to Harris since he may be more of a PG.

7. Phoenix Kosta Perovic, C (7'2", 240)

I prefer Biedrins and think he will drop to this spot. Perovic is the most experienced of the Euro big men and has the most polished offensive game. But I really doubt he is going to be much better than Lampe on defense and Lampe is a lot heavier.

8. Toronto Josh Smith, SF (6'8", 220)

The Raptors really need help at center. If they don't trade out, I would not be shocked with Podkolzine at this spot.

9. Philadelphia Devin Harris, PG (6'3", 185)

This would make sense, especially with rumors that Snow may be on the market.

10. Cleveland Pavel Podkolzine, C (7'5", 300)

I think they expect to re-sign Ilgauskas so I would question this pick. If they take Pavael, this might mean they plan to do a deal with Dallas.

11. Golden State Andre Iguodala, G/F (6'6", 210)

Not likely. Golden State seems likely to lose both Dampier and Foyle to free agency, so they need a big man.

12. Seattle Tiago Splitter, F/C (6'11", 240)
13. Portland Sebastion Telfair, PG (6'0", 170)
14. Utah Josh Childress, G/F (6'8", 200)
15. Boston Peja Samardziski, F/C (6'11", 240)
16. Utah Al Jefferson, PF (6'8", 250)
17. Atlanta Hakim Warrick, F (6'8", 200)
18. New Orleans JR Smith, SG (6'5", 210)
19. Miami Jameer Nelson, PG (5'11", 190)
20. Denver Kirk Snyder, SG (6'6", 220)
21. Utah PJ Ramos, C (7'3", 280)
22. New Jersey Luke Jackson, G/F (6'7", 215)
23. Portland David Harrison, C (7'0", 280)
24. Boston Kris Humphries, PF (6'8", 240)
25. Boston Marcelo Huertas, PG (6'3", 185)
26. Sacramento Rafael Araujo, C (6'11", 290)
27. LA Lakers Chris Duhon, PG (6'1", 190)
28. San Antonio Sergei Monya, G/F (6'7", 220)
29. Indiana Dorrell Wright, SG (6'7", 195)
30. Orlando Tony Allen, G (6'4", 205)

Major questions as to whether Splitter and Samardziski will even be in this draft.

 

[hcsilla]

Washington has Hughes, Hayes and Jeffries if they want to replace Stackhouse while they have "only" Brown, Haywood and Thomas (if they re-sign him) at PF/C.
Based on their needs they will pick rather a bigman than a swingman.

I expect at least one move from the Wizards this summer. They have talent but lack chemistry and veteran leadership.

Josh Smith is a fantastic athlete, I think he will be a top5 pick.

Podkolzine broke his hand, it seems to be more and more likely that he won't be a lottery pick if he declares at all.

 

[George O'Brien]

Washington has Hughes, Hayes and Jeffries if they want to replace Stackhouse while they have "only" Brown, Haywood and Thomas (if they re-sign him) at PF/C.
Based on their needs they will pick rather a bigman than a swingman.

I expect at least one move from the Wizards this summer. They have talent but lack chemistry and veteran leadership.

I'm pretty sure they will match on Thomas. Jeffreies has not looked good and Hayes is a pure shooter that was barely over 40%.

K Brown took 2 1/2 years to come even close to being productive. I'm guessing they will shop their pick if it isn't in the top two, but I don't think they are in the market for another young big man.

 

[hcsilla]

I'm pretty sure they will match on Thomas.

If they can sign Thomas for 2 mil. then yes. Else they will let him to go, IMO and keep their cap flexibility.
I wouldn't be surprised if they would make a deal with CHA.
Stackhouse, Laettner, 3 mil. for a 2nd round pick may make sense for both teams.

Jeffreies has not looked good

I would go more far. Jeffries looked terrible.I'm very happy that Suns didn't draft him. Good job, DA!

and Hayes is a pure shooter that was barely over 40%.

I think that he has decent athleticism and can finish. He is more than a pure shooter.

K Brown took 2 1/2 years to come even close to being productive. I'm guessing they will shop their pick if it isn't in the top two, but I don't think they are in the market for another young big man.

Yes, that's a point but they probably still haven't found their future PF and C.

 

[PhxGametime]

1. Orlando Emeka Okafor, F/C (6'9", 250)
2. Atlanta Dwight Howard, F/C (6'10", 240)
3. Chicago Luol Deng, SF (6'8", 220)
4. Charlotte Ben Gordon, PG (6'1", 185)
5. Washington Kosta Perovic, C (7'2", 240) *
6. LA Clippers Devin Harris, PG (6'3", 185)
7. Phoenix Andris Biedrins, F/C (6'11", 240) *
8. Toronto Josh Smith, SF (6'8", 220) [undecided]
9. Philadelphia Andre Iguodala, G/F (6'6", 210)
10. Cleveland Josh Childress, G/F (6'8", 200)
11. Golden State Tiago Splitter, F/C (6'11", 240)
12. Seattle Pavel Podkolzine, C (7'5", 300) *
13. Portland Shaun Livingston, PG (6'7", 175)
14. Utah David Harrison, C (7'0", 280)
15. Boston Peja Samardziski, F/C (6'11", 240) *
16. Utah Kris Humphries, PF (6'8", 240)
17. Atlanta Hakim Warrick, F (6'8", 200)
18. New Orleans Kirk Snyder, SG (6'6", 220)
19. Miami Rafael Araujo, C (6'11", 290)
20. Denver JR Smith, SG (6'5", 210)
21. Utah Al Jefferson, PF (6'8", 250)
22. New Jersey Christian Drejer, G/F (6'8", 210)
23. Portland Sergei Monya, G/F (6'7", 220) *
24. Boston Sebastion Telfair, PG (6'0", 170)
25. Boston Lawrence Roberts, F (6'9", 230)
26. Sacramento Luke Jackson, G/F (6'7", 215)
27. LA Lakers Herve Lamizana, F (6'10", 210)
28. San Antonio Romain Sato, SG (6'4", 205)
29. Indiana Jameer Nelson, PG (5'11", 190)


I didn't do research on prospects in draft and most players were players listed in previous Mock Draft - just switched up a few. Noticed Hawks were listed as felt like it pick - so it's too late for me to change it, I could always make another Mock Draft later.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The Suns won't pass on Podkolzine.

 

[hcsilla]

I hope they will.

 

[elindholm]

If they can sign Thomas for 2 mil. then yes. Else they will let him to go, IMO and keep their cap flexibility.

I would MUCH rather the Suns spend ~$2.5 million on Thomas than on McDyess this summer. They play the same position (backup power forward or undersized "center"), but Thomas is more athletic, has greater room for improvement, and has more heart.

 

[elindholm]

The Suns won't pass on Podkolzine.

Chris, I know you've correctly called the Suns' pick in each of the last two drafts (or more?), but I think you're wrong on this one. He can't get playing time on his current squad, and his scouting reports -- which are usually ridiculously optimistic for every player -- make him sound almost completely unskilled and disengaged from the sport. Add to that questions already surfacing about his long-term health, and he looks like a terrible pick. I'm half-expecting him to fall out of the lottery altogether.

My guess is that the Suns won't draft a project center who doesn't currently look at least as promising as Tsakalidis did three years ago or Lampe does now. And Podkolzine comes nowhere close to qualifying.

 

[Joe Mama]

If they can sign Thomas for 2 mil. then yes. Else they will let him to go, IMO and keep their cap flexibility.

I would MUCH rather the Suns spend ~$2.5 million on Thomas than on McDyess this summer. They play the same position (backup power forward or undersized "center"), but Thomas is more athletic, has greater room for improvement, and has more heart.

More heart? I think it's too easy to suggest that he has no heart just because he seems easy going. I don't think flamboyant equals heart. I think he would work extremely hard. Mostly I like his midrange jump shot as a compliment to Amare Stoudemire's inside game. If the money was the same there's only one reason I would sign Thomas instead of McDyess. Obviously it's McDyess' knees.

IMO the Antonio McDyess we saw at the end of this season is much better than Thomas.

George,

In your comments about the Suns drafting Perovic you said he was the most polished offensively of the European big men in the draft. Everything I have read about him suggests that right now he is much better on defense, and he is pretty raw offensively.

At this point I'll take anybody the Phoenix Suns feel is the best player available. There are only three or four players projected in the lottery that I've seen enough to have a feel for their games.

Joe Mama

 

[F-Dog]

I don't see Golden State selecting another wing player.

Golden State doesn't draft players any more. They acquire "assets", i.e. BPA. (Also, rumor has it that they're looking to move Jason Richardson.)

If they fall in love with one of the stiff centers, of course, all bets are off.

 

[elindholm]

IMO the Antonio McDyess we saw at the end of this season is much better than Thomas.

I know statistics don't tell the whole story, but Thomas had the better numbers. I've combined their March and April stats, since the seven games each played in April aren't enough to go on:

Age: McDyess 29, Thomas 26
Listed size: McDyess 6' 9" 245, Thomas 6' 9" 256
Minutes: McDyess 26.1, Thomas 25.7
Points: McDyess 7.3, Thomas 11.6
FG%: McDyess .520, Thomas .563
FT%: McDyess .556, Thomas .692
Rebounds (Offensive): McDyess 7.2 (1.9), Thomas 7.3 (2.5)
Blocks: McDyess 0.8, Thomas 1.9
Fouls: McDyess 3.7, Thomas 3.3
Assists: McDyess 0.9, Thomas 0.7
Steals: McDyess 1.4, Thomas 0.5

Playing the same minutes, their rebounding numbers are close to identical. Thomas is a better scorer and a more efficient one, both from the field and from the line. He blocks more than twice as many shots and commits (slightly) fewer fouls. The only significant edge McDyess has is in steals, not exactly a premium statistic for backup power forwards.

McDyess's greater offensive versatility may warrant some bonus points, but I don't think it's valid to describe him as a much better player.

And I'd still prefer Thomas.

 

[F-Dog]

4. Charlotte Shaun Livingston, PG (6'7", 175)

I think they take Deng if he is available and maybe Gordon.

The rumors I've seen say that they're locked in to Livingston if he's available.

5. Washington Andris Biedrins, F/C (6'11", 240)

I think they need a wing man to replace Stackhouse more than another PF/C.

In their own muddling, mediocre way, the Wizards have built depth at every position. (Plus, who says Stackhouse is going anywhere?) I decided that Biedrins gives them more flexibility moving forward than Josh Smith, because he might be able to defend several positions.

7. Phoenix Kosta Perovic, C (7'2", 240)

I prefer Biedrins and think he will drop to this spot. Perovic is the most experienced of the Euro big men and has the most polished offensive game. But I really doubt he is going to be much better than Lampe on defense and Lampe is a lot heavier.

My understanding is that Perovic is stronger on defense than offense. In any case, he's the most experienced of the Euro bigs, and experience is what the Suns prefer.

8. Toronto Josh Smith, SF (6'8", 220)

The Raptors really need help at center. If they don't trade out, I would not be shocked with Podkolzine at this spot.

Me either, not that there's any way to guess what their non-existant GM is thinking. Toronto's upper management does seem ready to tear down and rebuild, though (i.e. trade Vince Carter), and Josh Smith is rated much higher than any of the center prospects left...

11. Golden State Andre Iguodala, G/F (6'6", 210)

Not likely. Golden State seems likely to lose both Dampier and Foyle to free agency, so they need a big man.

If Dampier leaves (I wouldn't bet on it), they'll have plenty of scratch to chase another FA center. I would guess the Warriors of three years ago would take David Harrison, but that front office has been evolving for a while now.

Major questions as to whether Splitter and Samardziski will even be in this draft.

The latest that I've heard is that they're both in, so they both go in the mock.

 

[slinslin]

McDyess can play much better than what he already showed I mean he is just on the verge of coming back.

It is no surprise the Suns were 7-6 when Dice was starting and beat a lot of quality teams.
Milwaukee, Cleveland, Sacramento, Memphis, Utah, New Orleans and Washington.

8.7ppg 8.3rpg 1.0apg 1.0bpg 1.7spg

And Dice is definately not 6'9. He is at least 6'10.
Etan Thomas is also 6'10 260lbs officially.

Washington won only 7 of their last 25 games when Thomas was putting up good numbers.

I would like to have Etan Thomas also but I am sure he will get more than Dice and I would rather have Dice than Thomas I think.

I would definately not mind getting Etan Thomas though. He would definately be an improvement over Jake Voshkul who missed the end of the regular season with the same injury Grant Hill had I think.

Of course Thomas gets plenty of bonus points for his cool hair.

 

[F-Dog]

Washington has Hughes, Hayes and Jeffries if they want to replace Stackhouse while they have "only" Brown, Haywood and Thomas (if they re-sign him) at PF/C.

They want to give time to the Maryland guards, though, which means they'll be going small at SG if Arenas stays healthy.

Podkolzine broke his hand, it seems to be more and more likely that he won't be a lottery pick if he declares at all.

Wouldn't surprise me. That guy has more red flags than a parade at the Kremlin...

 

[Joe Mama]

The Suns won't pass on Podkolzine.

Want to bet on that?

Joe Mama

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The last Suns draft pick I was wrong on was Marion over Magette.

Last year I pegged the Cards to take Boldin.

I am pretty good at guessing what teams want/need.

Here is what I see: Suns in the top 2, they take Okafor or Howard.

Suns out of the top 2, they trade the pick.

If the Suns are stuck selecting and Podkolzine is there, they will take him. It is quite clear that the Suns need that big man in the middle that can alter shots and Podkolzine is the most imposing presence out there.

With Lampe and possibly McDyess, they can afford to gamble on a huge center. He won't need immediate playing time. In fact, I would say anyone in this draft is a huge gamble so you go with the kid with the most upside.

I can't say how good Podkolzine will be, but look at whom the Suns have had a center as long as Jerry is in charge...from Klein, to Schayes, to Longley, to Tskaladis..ect...

Jerry likes 7 foot guys that weigh more than 240. Podkolzine is the only guy that fits that bill.

 

[slinslin]

How many guys who were bigger than 7' 240lbs did Jerry draft in the last 30 or so years?

How many guys like that were even on our roster?

I am not sure if you were an Amare supporter. I could be wrong but I remember you as one of the Nene lovers.