Monday's Ten Thoughts Week 2

[BigRedRage]

its pretty obvious pp21 shifted to go with dansby thinking that was a pick. it was obvious live.

 

[Duckjake]

In general, you run because you're winning/you don't necessarily win because you're running.

An old wives tale not supported by facts when it comes to NFL football.

 

[Garthshort]

While I thought we looked better in our second game, but we should remember:
1. Second game was at home.
2. Second game was on grass.
3. Third (and first) game will be on turf.
4. Turf requires more speed so I think that Kevin Minter will get some PT at Brinkley's expense.
5. NO will put up points and I think we'll have to score 25+ in order to win.

 

[JeffGollin]

An old wives tale not supported by facts when it comes to NFL football.

Au contraire. The old wives tale has been that teams win games because they gained a lot of yards on the ground. Sabremetric groups like Pro Football Outsiders and PFF (who are hardly "old wives") are the ones who have consistently debunked the "running is why you win" theory.

You have the right to your opinion, but merely dismissing a different opinion as "old wives" doesn't automatically mean you're right.

 

[cardncubfan]

While I thought we looked better in our second game, but we should remember:
1. Second game was at home.
2. Second game was on grass.
3. Third (and first) game will be on turf.
4. Turf requires more speed so I think that Kevin Minter will get some PT at Brinkley's expense.
5. NO will put up points and I think we'll have to score 25+ in order to win.

They only put up 16 against Tampa Bay. Is Tampa Bays defense better than ours?

 

[dylanbw]

Mitch - I was hoping you mentioned Lyle Sendlein and Colledge, and am glad to see that you did. Lyle has really improved, and I thought this was his best game yet. Colledge worked hard as well. I have been trying to study interior line play. Fanaika is a nice surprise as you mentioned.

Honey Badger's tackling is more beautiful than an Elizabeth Barrett Browning poem.

LOVED BA going for the win on that late Go route to Roberts.

Andre Ellington.....yes, more please.

 

[Duckjake]

Au contraire. The old wives tale has been that teams win games because they gained a lot of yards on the ground. Sabremetric groups like Pro Football Outsiders and PFF (who are hardly "old wives") are the ones who have consistently debunked the "running is why you win" theory.

You have the right to your opinion, but merely dismissing a different opinion as "old wives" doesn't automatically mean you're right.

Sorry but the theory that teams get rushing yards mainly because they are ahead is an old wives tale. Teams get rushing yards because they are committed to running the football. Not because they are trying to run out the clock. The 2009 Cardinals won more games since any Cardinal team since the 1970's and they finished dead last in rushing attempts. The 2011 Packers were 15-1 and finished 27th in rushing yards. The Kansas City Chiefs were 2-12 last year and were 5th in rushing. The numbers just don't add up.

 

[MadCardDisease]

They only put up 16 against Tampa Bay. Is Tampa Bays defense better than ours?

There is a huge difference playing on the road in Tampa outside with crappy weather vs. playing at home in the Superdome.

 

[JeffGollin]

Sorry but the theory that teams get rushing yards mainly because they are ahead is an old wives tale. Teams get rushing yards because they are committed to running the football. Not because they are trying to run out the clock. The 2009 Cardinals won more games since any Cardinal team since the 1970's and they finished dead last in rushing attempts. The 2011 Packers were 15-1 and finished 27th in rushing yards. The Kansas City Chiefs were 2-12 last year and were 5th in rushing. The numbers just don't add up.

I refer you to What Football Outsiders says was their first-ever article: "You run when you win, not win when you run."

It's not based on the conventional wisdom of yesteryear (i.e. an "old wives tale") but rather the complex group of obscure statistics (like the DVOA) that many of us have come to love.

"Establishing the Run" = Old Wives.

"You run when you win..." debunks Old Wives.

You cite isolated examples that run counter to one another (i.e. losing teams ranking poorly in run yardage, winning teams ranking high in run yardage and vice versa) presumably to make your point that "intent to run" is irrelevant to the outcome.

I'm cool with that, but am more prone to accept Football Outsider's numbers based on every play of every team in every game over what I assume is a fairly long time period.

Finally, what Outsiders' stats say shouldn't undercut the argument that, when you run enough, it can help your team (by keeping pass rushers honest, draining time off the clock, wearing out defenses etc.).

Summing up: Running ain't just yardage. But, at the same time, it ain't everything either.

 

[john h]

1. "Everybody is accepting a role and who knows, for some of your roles might just about to get bigger." Bruce Arians to the team---before awarding the game ball to WR Kerry Taylor. This is added proof that BA understands and lives by his own mantra: "Team is what it takes." The symbolism of BA's gesture to award the game ball to the unsung Taylor in this BA's first win as Cardinals' HC is striking. And then to watch Kerry Taylor bring the team in and state "we have something very special going on here...let's go Cardinals on three" was a real treat and instant cause for goosebumps. Check it out if you haven't seen it!

http://blog.azcardinals.com/2013/09/16/quick-hits-after-arians/

2. The Play of the Game---where many were crucial to securing the win---has to be, imho, the PI call in the end zone on Andre Roberts when the Cardinals were facing third and long, but in field goal position to take the lead. Carson Palmer was gushing after the game that BA had been waiting for that matchup and how great it was for BA to have guts to dial up that play. That, my friends, is going for the win---and a far cry from the ultra-conservative calls we have seen in recent years.

3. I thought it might take a few games for BA to get his first win because he and his staff basically has to re-teach this team how to win...starting with Carson Palmer who hasn't been winning many games in recent years. For Palmer and the team to rebound the way they did following his egregious blunder, just shows how well coached this team is. BA did not panic, and neither did Palmer, or the rest of the team. Simply put, everyone methodically did his job and stuck to the plan.

4. To hear Darnell Dockett state so emphatically after the game how well prepared they were for the two minute drill---was striking as well. "We had done the two minute drill so many times in practice, we KNEW we were going to win." But---it's also HOW they won, by not being conservative or letting the pedal off the metal---they came after Stafford like crazy. Again---so many times the last few years you heard me lament the team's lack of preparation, especially during the last two minutes of each half. You could tell...those key situations had not been well-rehearsed. Now---it's the total opposite, and this team knows how well it is being coached. It is very refreshing to see how much they appreciate BA and the staff. Did you hear the cheers Steve Keim got from the team as well? Think we ever heard cheers like that before for a Cardinals' GM?

5. NBA---NFL. Man, passing games today are coming down to the old pick and roll, aren't they? How about the TD rub play the Lions ran to CJ?---it is practically impossible to defend. With CJ in the slot you can't press him---and with Tyrann Mathieu covering Nate Burleson wide, if Badger switches on CJ the size mismatch is glaring....although Mathieu is so pesky I wonder if he could find a way to Badger that pass anyway. Switching is the only way---other than zoning it---but again of Mathieu is wide he would have to defend the corner fade, which at his size doesn't give the team the beat chance. If you zone Peterson wide, now you have TM over CJ in the slot...where again CJ can use his body as a shield. How about the stack pick pass to Burleson?---again---so tough to defend. Notice that on a key third and long in the red zone the Cardinals tried it with Michael Floyd, only the stack wasn't as tight and Fitz wasn't able to block his man. The Lions defended it about as well as a team can, save batting down those quick passes (which the Cardinals need to get much better at).

6. Carson Palmer looked more skittish to me in this game---and he is developing some bad habits, like leaking backwards from the pocket. Now in this game the threat of the middle rush from N-Suh was imminent, but actually the Cardinals' o-line did a tremendous job of maintaining the inside pocket. This might have been Lyle Sendlein's best game as a Cardinal---not only in pass pro but on his pulls in the running game. But---back to Palmer he really needs to step up and set his feet. The other bad habit is how often he threw off-balance (some were unavoidable---and some were brilliant like the deep corner pass he threw to Fitz in the 3rd quarter, which palmer floated to a spot perfectly). But, to be fair to Levi Brown, he was doing a very good job on Izzy Ansah, but Palmer wasn't stepping inside Ansahs' wide rush. That's on Palmer, not on Levi. And this Paul Fanaika---he's a battler and he didn't back down one bit from N-Suh. We've got as player at RG folks. Winston is playing very well---and Daryn Colledge has done a makeover with his feet---did you see him chugging those feet and getting his hand punch in on time in pass pro?

7. Getting things right. This is another thing to love about BA. In Game 1, after missing a TD fade to LF on first down, BA calls the same play and Palmer connects. Yesterday, we see the same wheel route to Ellington and this time it is run to perfection...I mean perfection. Did you see Palmer's shoulder turn on that throw? Textbook. Obviously, the coaches worked with him quite a bit on that play. Ellington was huge in this game---and he adds a quickness and speed dimension the team needs. Great challenge by BA on the called fumble too. Thank goodness.

8. I was surprised that early in the game BA punted the ball on 4th and 1 just inside Lions' territory---you just know he wanted to go for it. But, this shows some real prudence and restraint on BA's part as a head coach and one who has been preaching field position, which BA & company commanded virtually the entire game thanks to Feely, Zastudil and Bethel (all of whom received game balls). This Justin Bethel---we may lament losing a 3rd round pick in Fleming, but Bethel, imo, was an out-and-out steal in the 6th round---and then you add the way Tony Jefferson played yesterday and it looks like we got third round talents in Bethel and Jefferson.

9. What did you think of seeing Calvin Johnson merely jogging through several of his routes? Especially the one on the last drive with the game on the line? I could see that he was trying to lull Patrick Peterson to sleep earlier in the game---and it sure worked on the monster slant play. Peterson should know better next time. But for CJ to be jogging his route late in that game is very troubling if you are a Lions' fan. Basically, the Lions were all dink and dunk in this game. The Cardinals---not as much---as they took their shots down the field---especially when the game was on the line. Big difference, imo. It allowed Todd Bowles to trim up the game plan---which was far clearer and better organized and executed this week. Bowles had the right matchups---save the one time he had Yeremiah Bell on Reggie Bush in the slot. There are only a few DBs in the NFL who can match up with Bush. What i like about Bell is he's a good step up and hit you tackler---and maybe you noticed but they used him some at LB yesterday, and Bell responded well in that role.

10. Karlos Dansby---as the game has evolved and offenses have become more diverse, this guy has become an even greater asset. For him he was a step late in the first half---but right on the spot in the second half. I think BA&SK will get him re-signed, my friends. Classic matchup LB in a league where matchups have become the key difference makers. Imagine when D-Wash returns the defensive playmakers with Dansby, Washington, Peterson and Mathieu---if our pass rush emerges (and it showed a pulse this week) this defense is going to be high-flying in ways we have never seen before. BA keeps telling the players that they don't know how good they are---and now BA has the team training with Navy seals to ward off fatigue---well, this already is paying dividends as the Cardinals had all the energy on their side in the 4th quarter...led on the defensive side of the ball by Dansby, Peterson and Mathieu...and in an unsung way, Tony Jefferson. As BA said---"get ready because some of your roles could get bigger." It looks like for some they already have!

Well done. Dansby in particular impressed me. He seemed to be everywhere. A great pickup by the Cards. Roberts had his second good game in a row and reminds me a bit of Wes Welker. You get the pass anywhere near him and chances are he will catch it.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Well done. Dansby in particular impressed me. He seemed to be everywhere. A great pickup by the Cards.

I loved the Dansby pickup but he really seems to be struggling with covering athletic TEs which is clearly his weakness. I think Jimmy Graham makes Dansby look like a chump this week.

 

[CFLredzoned]

I refer you to What Football Outsiders says was their first-ever article: "You run when you win, not win when you run."

It's not based on the conventional wisdom of yesteryear (i.e. an "old wives tale") but rather the complex group of obscure statistics (like the DVOA) that many of us have come to love.

I just had a quick look at their VOA numbers - http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-2-dvoa-ratings. Doesn't paint a pretty picture for the Cards. Offense #21, defense #18, special teams #24, total voa #24. Total Dave #28. Dang. Does that mean we win ugly?

 

[Duckjake]

I loved the Dansby pickup but he really seems to be struggling with covering athletic TEs which is clearly his weakness. I think Jimmy Graham makes Dansby look like a chump this week.

If Dansby is the guy responsible for covering Jimmy Graham it is Bowles who is the chump. That job needs to go to Rashad Johnson or Bell. Aren't Safeties supposed to cover the TE's? I seem to remember us being concerned about Adrian Wilson because he was having trouble with covering TE's later in his career.

Funny though that Dansby has more PD's (Passes defensed) than any other player on the team and Dan Williams leads the team in interceptions.

 

[Duckjake]

I just had a quick look at their VOA numbers - http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-2-dvoa-ratings. Doesn't paint a pretty picture for the Cards. Offense #21, defense #18, special teams #24, total voa #24. Total Dave #28. Dang. Does that mean we win ugly?

I don't buy any of those numbers. Not since they rated some obscure Cardinal DB top 5 or close to that in the NFL and the guy was cut a year later and out of the league in two years. Just a bunch of statistical nonsense to make themselves feel important or something.

What I do see are teams winning without running and teams running while losing.