My Biggest Draft Worry

[Chopper0080]

At the moment. The most probable scenario has Cards trading with Minnesota and taking WR Thomas. I know he’s a popular choice. I have several concerns with this strategy. First the drop off from the top 3 WRs is dramatic. The top 3 are no risk choices, especially Harrison and Ordunze. Even Nabers has a big upside and might eventually have the most impact. Thomas is very raw. He’s an overachiever in testing, like the Combine. He had a good season last year, still he’s exceptionally raw technique-wise compared to the top 3. He will take development to become a game changer if everything goes perfectly. He runs careless routes, lacks focus causing drops and does not have impressive YAC. His ceiling may well be a number 2 or weaker receiver. Second, if the Cards get a 2025 pick, I don’t like that draft at this point compared to 2023-24. The Cards should have learned future picks can be a major gamble. Finally, pick 23 has the potential of a stable starter, but not likely a future Pro Bowl player. The Cards would be giving up a player capable of changing games for some need fillers. That’s a bad decision.

Agree that the above scenario would be Monti screwing the pooch. #MagicBeansStrategy

 

[daves]

At the moment. The most probable scenario has Cards trading with Minnesota and taking WR Thomas.

Nick Baumgartner's latest mock on The Athletic is sure to disappoint:

1. Chicago Bears (from CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
2. Washington Commanders: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
3. New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

4. Minnesota Vikings (from ARI)*: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Projected trade: Minnesota trades No. 11, No. 23 and a 2025 first-round pick to Arizona for No. 4

5. Atlanta Falcons (from LAC)*: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Projected trade: Atlanta trades No. 8, No. 43 and a 2025 mid-round pick to the Los Angeles Chargers for No. 5
6. Chicago Bears (from NYG)*: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Projected trade: Chicago trades No. 9, No. 75 and a 2025 mid-round pick to the New York Giants for No. 6
7. Tennessee Titans: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
8. Los Angeles Chargers (from ATL)*: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
9. New York Giants (from CHI)*: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
10. New York Jets: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

11. Arizona Cardinals (from MIN)*: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The first defender off the board comes 11 picks in, and it just happens to be my favorite corner in this class. Arnold is a complete defender, in terms of his versatility and willingness to do anything. He can recover, press, hit and diagnose.
...

23. Arizona Cardinals (from MIN via HOU/CLE)*: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Another player who might have a decent range on draft night — Thomas easily could hear his name called in the teens, but he might have to wait until around this spot. Nabers’ running mate is big and explosive with 4.33 speed at 6-foot-3, 209 pounds. Kyler Murray would be in for this pick.
...

27. Arizona Cardinals (from HOU): Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
The Cardinals could trade one of these picks — remember, we now have them holding three first-round selections after the early swap with Minnesota. They also could move back up. No one has more draft capital than Arizona (with or without our projected trade), and it’s not really that close. The Cardinals have a big-time chance to make a jump this spring.
...

35. Arizona Cardinals: Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M

 

[oaken1]

Nick Baumgartner's latest mock on The Athletic is sure to disappoint:

Not a horrible first round

 

[Krangodnzr]

Nick Baumgartner's latest mock on The Athletic is sure to disappoint:

It's funny because I could see how a defense first head coach might want this draft.

Arnold is likely the best CB in the draft and then you get a young stud for the front seven as well as a WR with elite traits.

Edge Cooper is a stud too.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

At the moment. The most probable scenario has Cards trading with Minnesota and taking WR Thomas. I know he’s a popular choice. I have several concerns with this strategy. First the drop off from the top 3 WRs is dramatic. The top 3 are no risk choices, especially Harrison and Ordunze. Even Nabers has a big upside and might eventually have the most impact. Thomas is very raw. He’s an overachiever in testing, like the Combine. He had a good season last year, still he’s exceptionally raw technique-wise compared to the top 3. He will take development to become a game changer if everything goes perfectly. He runs careless routes, lacks focus causing drops and does not have impressive YAC. His ceiling may well be a number 2 or weaker receiver. Second, if the Cards get a 2025 pick, I don’t like that draft at this point compared to 2023-24. The Cards should have learned future picks can be a major gamble. Finally, pick 23 has the potential of a stable starter, but not likely a future Pro Bowl player. The Cards would be giving up a player capable of changing games for some need fillers. That’s a bad decision.

Stay on target

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Couldn’t agree more. Take the sure thing at 4. If Monti wants to make trades let it be with the rest of the draft.

I want to be very clear that MHJr is not a "sure thing", he is a "most liklely to not fail"

 

[Chris_Sanders]

If we take a CB with our first pick. I will commit seppeku. The dishonor you have brought on the house of cards is intolerable

 

[Cardsmasochist]

My biggest fear is that whoever we draft will be a bust or have major injuries like Eric Swann. Murphys Law says that one of the top 4 picks will be a Pro Bowler and possibly a HOFer and 2 will be really good and one will be a bust. We are overdue for picking a game changer but the last several Cardinals drafts have been atrocious. (Not counting last year’s draft)

 

[NWMike]

If that's what the Chargers want to move out of 5 I'd give them 11, 35 and a mid rounder and trump Atlanta's deal. My dream scenario would to move back get the extra 1 this year and next and move back up to still get Harrison. Have your cake and eat it too!

 

[daves]

If that's what the Chargers want to move out of 5 I'd give them 11, 35 and a mid rounder and trump Atlanta's deal. My dream scenario would to move back get the extra 1 this year and next and move back up to still get Harrison. Have your cake and eat it too!

I like the thought, but #11 might not do it if they're targeting Alt.

 

[BulldogCard]

I saw an article where it said who was visiting the team recently. I always thought that meant they were not drafting those players and it was a smokescreen. I think it would be a mistake to not stay at 4 and draft MHJ. This team has a history of trying to be the smartest guy in the room and getting cute on draft day. If they trade down to 11 with Minnesota; I don't think they will get 1 of the 3 best wrs. MHJ is the best overall wr in my opinion because of the contested catches, strong hands, and pedigree. He is 6 3 205 and the route running, etc will come. I think he'll be able to handle press coverage. Don't overthink it, Cards. You have a qb you can win with who is going to become a leader.

 

[football karma]

i really want one of those top 3 WRs, but if "fail" is getting two extra first round picks and the 7th best position player in the draft -- ill take that fail

 

[602 Native]

Paris Johnson & Brian Thomas
Or
Will Anderson & MHJ

 

[Stout]

Paris Johnson & Brian Thomas
Or
Will Anderson & MHJ

Wil Anderson & MHJ, no question. But, to be fair to the other side, there are more picks involved.

 

[QuebecCard]

Paris Johnson & Brian Thomas
Or
Will Anderson & MHJ

Paris + MHJ...

So it is written, so it will be!

 

[602 Native]

Wil Anderson & MHJ, no question. But, to be fair to the other side, there are more picks involved.

Very true.

Just pointing to the fact that we could have 2 guys that are game changers and we might not get them. Neither PJ or BT have this tag coming out of college.

Both dudes can be good but man I would rather take a possible sure thing.

 

[kerouac9]

possible sure thing

Obviously this is a contradiction in terms.

I believe the ceiling for MHJ is higher than Brian Thomas's, but not by much. I think Brian Thomas's 99th percentile outcome is A.J. Green; MHJ's is probably similar -- but that is more like his 80th percentile outcome.

I also think that MHJ's floor is way higher. It's difficult to imagine Harrison Jr being worse than, like, Courtland Sutton on his rookie deal, barring injury. Is it that difficult to imagine Brian Thomas being Will Fuller?

 

[Mulli]

Obviously this is a contradiction in terms.

I believe the ceiling for MHJ is higher than Brian Thomas's, but not by much. I think Brian Thomas's 99th percentile outcome is A.J. Green; MHJ's is probably similar -- but that is more like his 80th percentile outcome.

I also think that MHJ's floor is way higher. It's difficult to imagine Harrison Jr being worse than, like, Courtland Sutton on his rookie deal, barring injury. Is it that difficult to imagine Brian Thomas being Will Fuller?

Yes?

 

[MadCardDisease]

I saw an article where it said who was visiting the team recently. I always thought that meant they were not drafting those players and it was a smokescreen.

Three of the players that were brought in on visits last year were drafted by the Cardinals:

Paris Johnson Jr
Garrett Williams
Kei’Trel Clark

 

[Mulli]

Three of the players that were brought in on visits last year were drafted by the Cardinals:

Paris Johnson Jr
Garrett Williams
Kei’Trel Clark

Dun dun dunnnn

 

[kerouac9]

Kei’Trel Clark

Thank goodness, too. If we hadn't interviewed him, we might have thought he was a promising player throughout the preseason only to realize midyear that he was useless on the defense.

We'd've had to stick him on the bench for the entirety of the back half of his rookie season.

#crisisaverted

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Thank goodness, too. If we hadn't interviewed him, we might have thought he was a promising player throughout the preseason only to realize midyear that he was useless on the defense.

We'd've had to stick him on the bench for the entirety of the back half of his rookie season.

#crisisaverted

My dog...think of all that top notch talent he had ahead of him. How could you possibly find the playing time?

 

[Mulli]

Is KTC still on the team? If so, maybe getting benched is just what he needed.

Maybe he wouldn't stop making eye contact with Kyler in the locker room.

 

[Shane]

Why worry about thing you have little to no control over

 

[kerouac9]

Is KTC still on the team? If so, maybe getting benched is just what he needed.

Maybe he wouldn't stop making eye contact with Kyler in the locker room.

Can’t loom over QB1 right that.