Time to post an update now after Senior Bowl and before Scouting Combine.
I consider a front five-play to be the most relevant pick at #16 by far, and basically the only acceptable option.
These rankings are obviously very dependent on what happens in free agency. Only in a situation that is pretty much status quo - where they have re-signed Browning but have not signed a player in free agency for the most exposed edge rush-role - this Cards board is relevant. That is the scenario I am working from, since that is the most known to us fans. We know what they have, so to speak.
If Ossenfort brings in a great scheme-fit in free agency (Josh Sweat, Chase Young, Malcolm Koonce, for example), that would open up the door for a lot of other edge rusher types, no matter what happens with Browning, because the most glaring need would be filled. Players like Princely Umanmielen, Mike Green, Jalon Walker or Donovan Ezeiruaku would suddenly come into play, because an edge rusher would become a “luxury pick” where a certain type would not be strictly needed. The same would be the case if no one was brought in, and Browning is not re-signed, but then it would be because there would now be two edge roles to fill. In that case, the type of added player wouldn’t matter that much, since they would need both anyway.
Of front five-players, I think that Abdul Carter (Penn State), Mason Graham (Michigan) and Mykel Williams (Georgia), will surely be drafted in the top ten, and I have not included them in the rankings for that reason.
I also think that Shemar Stewart goes before #16 (especially after he completely annihilate the Scouting Combine), and then it becomes a question whether Javon Walker, James Pearce, Mike Green, Nic Scourton or Princely Umanmielen are chosen before. I doubt that the Cards don’t have the choice of at least two or three of those players. Fortunately, Walker, Green and Umanmielen are not obvious fits, increasing the likelihood that the Cards can choose one that makes sense.
As you can see, I have still included Stewart in these rankings because it is not that crazy to think that some of the other mentioned will be drafted instead since everyone boards are obviously different.
Tell me if you want me to add more players than five in the next update.
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1 – Shemar Stewart, edge rusher, Texas A&M
He was #1 on my Cards board a month ago, and he has certainly only backed that up since then. I think that Stewart will get drafted before #16, simply because teams are drafting potential, and when the potential is so high as with Stewart, someone is likely to take the chance early. He is a prime example of how box scores can lie as he had a ton of pressures the last couple of seasons, but he is not a classic boom-or-bust prospect since he is already a very high-level run defender. He will almost surely be able to contribute in that way to a team as a minimum, whereas, for example, James Pearce could end up flopping completely.
2 – James Pearce, edge rusher, Tennessee
I did not have Pearce in my first rankings, and my excuse is that I did not know him well enough. I simply had not studied him enough, and now I have gotten more knowledgeable. That is because you are automatically drawn to his impressive get-off, bend and overall athleticism, but when you look closer, he is more than that. Certainly, his biggest strength is his speed, but he does have a more nuanced pass rush repertoire, and he does play with more functional strength and power than expected. He is not great against the run, but he is better than you would think, and there are plenty of game tape where he is doing fine in setting the edge. It is his slender frame that gives him issues as a power player, and not because he is not willing to. In fact, his weight-in might be the single most interesting thing at the Scouting Combine, and if he can put on the 15-20 pounds that his body type easily can carry, then he can become a great overall fit. And until then he can be the dangerous pass rusher they need.
3 – Nic Scourton, edge rusher, Texas A&M
Scourton is the best scheme-fit out of the gate and has a lot of developmental potential as well. He is unnaturally technically skilled for a 20-year-old and has several pass rush- and counter moves. He is a strong run defender, which gives him a high floor and low risk of being a bust. You could call this a safe pick since we know for sure that he is a wonderful scheme fit and a “Gannon-type”, whereas there are a few unknown aspects with both Stewart and Pearce (but probably also higher ceilings).
As I mentioned last month, Scourton reminds me a bit of Jared Verse. He did look more explosive at Purdue, though, so he might have played with a little more weight this past season. I would make him play at around 270ish.
4 – Kenneth Grant, defensive tackle, Michigan
I still think that Grant can be Gannon’s new version of Jordan Davis from the Eagles. You might notice that I have taken Tyleik Williams out of these top rankings since last time, even though he might be the best scheme-fit at any position in the entire draft. That is simply because the value in a DT is too low in the Cards’ very disciplined and “conservative” defensive line-scheme, so for me to take a DT in the first round he must have unlimited potential – and that is Grant.
Also, it probably doesn’t hurt that the new o-line coach knows Grant very well after getting destroyed by him this season.
5 – J.T. Tuimoloau, edge rusher, Ohio State
I considered including Tuimoloau in my rankings last month, and after his very impressive playoff-campaign, it would be strange if I did not move him up. He just does everything so well. He might not be at an elite-level in anything, but he is such a well-rounded, stable player, and he is a tremendous scheme-fit. I cannot see him being a bust with his high floor-level.
The exact same text could be written about his teammate Jack Sawyer, and Landon Jackson from Arkansas, but I am just a bit higher on Tuimoloau. He would be higher on this list if my focus was not on targeting players with world class developmental potential.
I consider a front five-play to be the most relevant pick at #16 by far, and basically the only acceptable option.
These rankings are obviously very dependent on what happens in free agency. Only in a situation that is pretty much status quo - where they have re-signed Browning but have not signed a player in free agency for the most exposed edge rush-role - this Cards board is relevant. That is the scenario I am working from, since that is the most known to us fans. We know what they have, so to speak.
If Ossenfort brings in a great scheme-fit in free agency (Josh Sweat, Chase Young, Malcolm Koonce, for example), that would open up the door for a lot of other edge rusher types, no matter what happens with Browning, because the most glaring need would be filled. Players like Princely Umanmielen, Mike Green, Jalon Walker or Donovan Ezeiruaku would suddenly come into play, because an edge rusher would become a “luxury pick” where a certain type would not be strictly needed. The same would be the case if no one was brought in, and Browning is not re-signed, but then it would be because there would now be two edge roles to fill. In that case, the type of added player wouldn’t matter that much, since they would need both anyway.
Of front five-players, I think that Abdul Carter (Penn State), Mason Graham (Michigan) and Mykel Williams (Georgia), will surely be drafted in the top ten, and I have not included them in the rankings for that reason.
I also think that Shemar Stewart goes before #16 (especially after he completely annihilate the Scouting Combine), and then it becomes a question whether Javon Walker, James Pearce, Mike Green, Nic Scourton or Princely Umanmielen are chosen before. I doubt that the Cards don’t have the choice of at least two or three of those players. Fortunately, Walker, Green and Umanmielen are not obvious fits, increasing the likelihood that the Cards can choose one that makes sense.
As you can see, I have still included Stewart in these rankings because it is not that crazy to think that some of the other mentioned will be drafted instead since everyone boards are obviously different.
Tell me if you want me to add more players than five in the next update.
---------------------
1 – Shemar Stewart, edge rusher, Texas A&M
He was #1 on my Cards board a month ago, and he has certainly only backed that up since then. I think that Stewart will get drafted before #16, simply because teams are drafting potential, and when the potential is so high as with Stewart, someone is likely to take the chance early. He is a prime example of how box scores can lie as he had a ton of pressures the last couple of seasons, but he is not a classic boom-or-bust prospect since he is already a very high-level run defender. He will almost surely be able to contribute in that way to a team as a minimum, whereas, for example, James Pearce could end up flopping completely.
2 – James Pearce, edge rusher, Tennessee
I did not have Pearce in my first rankings, and my excuse is that I did not know him well enough. I simply had not studied him enough, and now I have gotten more knowledgeable. That is because you are automatically drawn to his impressive get-off, bend and overall athleticism, but when you look closer, he is more than that. Certainly, his biggest strength is his speed, but he does have a more nuanced pass rush repertoire, and he does play with more functional strength and power than expected. He is not great against the run, but he is better than you would think, and there are plenty of game tape where he is doing fine in setting the edge. It is his slender frame that gives him issues as a power player, and not because he is not willing to. In fact, his weight-in might be the single most interesting thing at the Scouting Combine, and if he can put on the 15-20 pounds that his body type easily can carry, then he can become a great overall fit. And until then he can be the dangerous pass rusher they need.
3 – Nic Scourton, edge rusher, Texas A&M
Scourton is the best scheme-fit out of the gate and has a lot of developmental potential as well. He is unnaturally technically skilled for a 20-year-old and has several pass rush- and counter moves. He is a strong run defender, which gives him a high floor and low risk of being a bust. You could call this a safe pick since we know for sure that he is a wonderful scheme fit and a “Gannon-type”, whereas there are a few unknown aspects with both Stewart and Pearce (but probably also higher ceilings).
As I mentioned last month, Scourton reminds me a bit of Jared Verse. He did look more explosive at Purdue, though, so he might have played with a little more weight this past season. I would make him play at around 270ish.
4 – Kenneth Grant, defensive tackle, Michigan
I still think that Grant can be Gannon’s new version of Jordan Davis from the Eagles. You might notice that I have taken Tyleik Williams out of these top rankings since last time, even though he might be the best scheme-fit at any position in the entire draft. That is simply because the value in a DT is too low in the Cards’ very disciplined and “conservative” defensive line-scheme, so for me to take a DT in the first round he must have unlimited potential – and that is Grant.
Also, it probably doesn’t hurt that the new o-line coach knows Grant very well after getting destroyed by him this season.
5 – J.T. Tuimoloau, edge rusher, Ohio State
I considered including Tuimoloau in my rankings last month, and after his very impressive playoff-campaign, it would be strange if I did not move him up. He just does everything so well. He might not be at an elite-level in anything, but he is such a well-rounded, stable player, and he is a tremendous scheme-fit. I cannot see him being a bust with his high floor-level.
The exact same text could be written about his teammate Jack Sawyer, and Landon Jackson from Arkansas, but I am just a bit higher on Tuimoloau. He would be higher on this list if my focus was not on targeting players with world class developmental potential.
I clearly wrote that he is a classic example of how the box score sometimes lies. You need to watch the game film to see how often he affects the game.
