BACH
Superbowl, Homeboy!
I posted this about 1 month ago.
www.arizonasportsfans.com
I tried to pick Monti's brain based on his earlier actions and statements prior to the start of FA. Not to promote myself, but came pretty close.
Time to recap and re-adjust.
Concluding on the 1st wave
I stated that Monti's job was to make the team significantly better and gave a couple of guidelines on how I expected Monti to act.
Priority 1 - Extend McBride - A grade
Priority 2 - Re-sign the key back-ups - A grade
Brewer, Beachum, Browning, Brown, Jones and Collier re-signed. Good key back-ups re-signed. I'll come back to Hernandez and White later (both ILB and G are a bit confusing for me and an entire chapter by itself)
Priority 3 - Plug the weaknesses of the roster with Free Agency - B- grade
I stated that there were actually a very low number of open spots on the roster, so Monti had to swing BIG in a limited number rather than going for volume. I listed G, Edge, DT and LB as needs. Monti did try to swing. He hit on a couple and missed on a couple.
Reports says he tried to sign DT Milton Williams, DT Jonathan Allen and G Fries and failed. He signed Sweat, Tomlinson, Davis-Gaither, Campbell and Brissett.
Monti tried to go big. Did an okay job and the rest of signings were for the bottom of the roster. So IMO it's clear that Monti only tried to add “expensive” young talent that could significantly improve the roster and didn't even try to sign any mid-level players (apart for the ILB situtation).
Love Brissett as a qualified back-up to Kyler.
Sweat, Tomlinson and Campbell instantly improves the front 7.
Two position groups are still question marks for me - ILB and IOL.
For ILB. I love what White brought to the team in this build-up, but White is a run-stopping ILB and a liability in coverage. I expected White to leave and the team has shown ZERO interest in re-signing him. I did NOT expect the replacement to be Davis-Gaither. Didn't seem to be interest in any other LBs so I have no idea what the plan is here. Is he the expected starter? He is better in coverage, but overall hasn't shown that much. White is available and I would argue that run stopping ILBs is the easiest player type to find in the NFL (all premier ILB are good in coverage), so what gives? Is the position better? I have no idea. Certainly looks like Monti thinks so.
Guard
Brown was re-signed. Adams looked good in the run game and horrible in pass-pro. Is that the plan? I would assume no as Monti tried to sign Fries. I’m guessing Brown was re-signed to be the extra 6th IOL, so 1-2 starters are needed - depending on Adams' development. I also guessing that Hernandez will be brought back when healthy. Key part of the team and he wants to return as a Cardinal. With Hernandez back healthy, the position is still marginally better than it was last season (expecting Adams to develop + better back-ups)
Given the Cap space, I would have liked to see 1 more significant improvement to the roster, hence my B- grade. If Monti had landed G Fries this would have been a great 1st wave of free agency.
But evaluating Monti overall after the first wave. Solid work. B to B+ grade. The roster is significantly better than it was 5 weeks ago. ILB and G are still question marks, but also two of the easiest positions to fill with veterans on 1-year deals later. So no panic - yet.
Is the roster good enough? No. This is perhaps the best roster the Cardinals have had since moving to AZ from the Buttom Up. The top talent is still lacking.
Question is what Monti does in the next waves.
Looking Forward to the draft
As I've stated before. I'm a believer in Monti and going into the draft, IMO it proves the plan is working (I get too slow for some here).
This draft is unique in a couple of ways:
- Filled with Edge and DT talent
- Filled with RB talent
- Few bluechip players
- Incredible strong in the 25-50 range.
- If you combine the top 100 form the 4 premier draft guys that actually have team insider knowledge, you have 142 players listed. By far the most players ever. So in all likelyhood we will see teams having more different draft boards and the willingness to trade up and especially down will be larger than usual.
All this makes this draft very unpredictable and fun.
The team is positioned heading into the draft with ZERO positions as liabilities. Sure, some could be upgraded, but gone are the Keim days of having to spend a 1st rounder to fill a hole and sometimes being forced to put in a rookie 4th rounder in the starting line-up because the draft didn't develop as expected.
So with no desperate need to plug holes in the draft, it takes a different approach for the team.
Monti now has two chioces in the draft - Looking ahead to replace aging starters or making a solid group into an elite group.
All this leaves only a few positions as options in the first 4 rounds IMO.
OL
Easily first priority. Guard is a need. RT Williams is a question mark due to injury. Beachum is 37 YO. Adams' development is a question as well.
The team most likely needs one starting G and a RT of the future.
Plenty of options.. A few elite prospects that are most likely gone at #16 and a bigger group projected in the 20's and low 30's, a few projected 2nd rounder and then a ton of college RTs expected to play inside in the NFL in the mid-low 3rd round - note that half of the combine interviews were with these 60-90 range projected OTs.
Edge
This draft class is filled with edge rushers and the team could easily add more depth here. Looking at who they are bringing in for visits, I believe the team focus would be the quicker pure pass-rusher and there is an abundance of players fitting that mold projected from 1st overall to mid 2nd.
DT
The DT position room is full and have gone from worst to above average.But filled with older players or players realisticly only contributing for 1-2 years more (age or contract). I would love to add youth to the position but also be very selective if going DT and target a 0 tec space eater. Grant and Nolan are there in 1st. Not much in the 2nd round range and then a group in the 3rd e.g. Norman-Lott, Collins, Jordan Philips or Walker.
CB
Not a need IMO, but Samuel Jr. was brought in for a visit, so adding an outside CB at #16 could elevate a promising young group to elite level for the next 3 years. If Will Johnson drops to #16..
WR
Same as with CB. Not a big need IMO. McBride are MHJ are there and receiving threat #1 and #2, so I do not see the need to add a WR at #16. What I would like is to add is a complimentary speed WR to stretch the field. But that is more a Bond or Noel type in the 3rd round.
Other positions...
QB are not an option. Neither is S early IMO. TE and RB - only if an elite talent like TE Warren or Jeanty falls, which is unlikely.
It's going to be interesting if ILB Campbell falls to #16, but rumor is that the Bucs desperately want him, so phone will be ringing.
So, what will Monti do?
A couple of things are obvious looking at his previous draft:
- Monti is not afraid to move - up or down. Traded up for PJJ. Tried to trade up for Dallas Turner.
- Monti drafts by sequence and tiers. Traded out of #35 when they had Melton in the same tier as the other CBs in the early 2nd.
- Monti seems to be putting more value on athleticism than most other teams - PJJ, BJ, Reiman, Thomas, Melton, Adams and Jones all scored very very high on metrics.
So what would I do if I was Monti.
1. If an Elite players drops at one of the above positions despite being a secondary need. Draft him. If CB Will Johnson drops or OT Will Campbell drops because of his size limitations, I would jump on that immidiately. I feel the young CB group is good enough if the team add pass-rush. By drafting Johnson, the team could potentially have the best secondary in the league for the next 3 seasons.
Adding Will Campbel could give you an all-pro guard level player that you Could slide out to RT in the future.
2. If sticking at #16. Easy choice based on how the consensus board looks like. Edge is the pick. You could easily add one more player to the position and there most likely will be 3 Edge players available that would be drafted in the top 10 normally. Mykel Williams or Mike Green would be my preference here.
3. Listen to offers. Stock up on Day 2 picks by moving down 4-8 spots. I believe moving down no further than #24 is the sweet spot as Texans will be looking for OL. Bucs are rumored to love LB Campbell. Broncos want WR or TE. Would the Steelers want to secure Sanders if he falls?
Trading down opens the door to the 3rd and 4th OT and the too 2 Gs. DT #2-4 are also in the range here. Pick-up future starters at OL or DT and get 2-4 extra picks. Or just add an edge while getting more day 2 picks.
4. Add Edge and/or OL in the 2nd round if staying. Consider moving up for a OT or DT.
5. Add DT and/or OL in the third. This is my biggest no brainer. Huge group of players at both positions projected here.
Next waves.
3rd wave - Post draft FA additions to plug holes
4th wave - June 1st veteran cuts
(I'm guessing the two are merging a bit due to team being able to designate players as post 1st june cut and cut them immidiately)
My suggested approach to the Off-Season (BACH)
For those of you following my posts and interact with me know that I'm a fan of Monti's approach and the way he has re-build this team, so wanted to give my two cents on how I would approach the off-season and the way I see Monti approach it (I might be delusional to think I'm even close to...
www.arizonasportsfans.com
I tried to pick Monti's brain based on his earlier actions and statements prior to the start of FA. Not to promote myself, but came pretty close.
Time to recap and re-adjust.
Concluding on the 1st wave
I stated that Monti's job was to make the team significantly better and gave a couple of guidelines on how I expected Monti to act.
Priority 1 - Extend McBride - A grade
Priority 2 - Re-sign the key back-ups - A grade
Brewer, Beachum, Browning, Brown, Jones and Collier re-signed. Good key back-ups re-signed. I'll come back to Hernandez and White later (both ILB and G are a bit confusing for me and an entire chapter by itself)
Priority 3 - Plug the weaknesses of the roster with Free Agency - B- grade
I stated that there were actually a very low number of open spots on the roster, so Monti had to swing BIG in a limited number rather than going for volume. I listed G, Edge, DT and LB as needs. Monti did try to swing. He hit on a couple and missed on a couple.
Reports says he tried to sign DT Milton Williams, DT Jonathan Allen and G Fries and failed. He signed Sweat, Tomlinson, Davis-Gaither, Campbell and Brissett.
Monti tried to go big. Did an okay job and the rest of signings were for the bottom of the roster. So IMO it's clear that Monti only tried to add “expensive” young talent that could significantly improve the roster and didn't even try to sign any mid-level players (apart for the ILB situtation).
Love Brissett as a qualified back-up to Kyler.
Sweat, Tomlinson and Campbell instantly improves the front 7.
Two position groups are still question marks for me - ILB and IOL.
For ILB. I love what White brought to the team in this build-up, but White is a run-stopping ILB and a liability in coverage. I expected White to leave and the team has shown ZERO interest in re-signing him. I did NOT expect the replacement to be Davis-Gaither. Didn't seem to be interest in any other LBs so I have no idea what the plan is here. Is he the expected starter? He is better in coverage, but overall hasn't shown that much. White is available and I would argue that run stopping ILBs is the easiest player type to find in the NFL (all premier ILB are good in coverage), so what gives? Is the position better? I have no idea. Certainly looks like Monti thinks so.
Guard
Brown was re-signed. Adams looked good in the run game and horrible in pass-pro. Is that the plan? I would assume no as Monti tried to sign Fries. I’m guessing Brown was re-signed to be the extra 6th IOL, so 1-2 starters are needed - depending on Adams' development. I also guessing that Hernandez will be brought back when healthy. Key part of the team and he wants to return as a Cardinal. With Hernandez back healthy, the position is still marginally better than it was last season (expecting Adams to develop + better back-ups)
Given the Cap space, I would have liked to see 1 more significant improvement to the roster, hence my B- grade. If Monti had landed G Fries this would have been a great 1st wave of free agency.
But evaluating Monti overall after the first wave. Solid work. B to B+ grade. The roster is significantly better than it was 5 weeks ago. ILB and G are still question marks, but also two of the easiest positions to fill with veterans on 1-year deals later. So no panic - yet.
Is the roster good enough? No. This is perhaps the best roster the Cardinals have had since moving to AZ from the Buttom Up. The top talent is still lacking.
Question is what Monti does in the next waves.
Looking Forward to the draft
As I've stated before. I'm a believer in Monti and going into the draft, IMO it proves the plan is working (I get too slow for some here).
This draft is unique in a couple of ways:
- Filled with Edge and DT talent
- Filled with RB talent
- Few bluechip players
- Incredible strong in the 25-50 range.
- If you combine the top 100 form the 4 premier draft guys that actually have team insider knowledge, you have 142 players listed. By far the most players ever. So in all likelyhood we will see teams having more different draft boards and the willingness to trade up and especially down will be larger than usual.
All this makes this draft very unpredictable and fun.
The team is positioned heading into the draft with ZERO positions as liabilities. Sure, some could be upgraded, but gone are the Keim days of having to spend a 1st rounder to fill a hole and sometimes being forced to put in a rookie 4th rounder in the starting line-up because the draft didn't develop as expected.
So with no desperate need to plug holes in the draft, it takes a different approach for the team.
Monti now has two chioces in the draft - Looking ahead to replace aging starters or making a solid group into an elite group.
All this leaves only a few positions as options in the first 4 rounds IMO.
OL
Easily first priority. Guard is a need. RT Williams is a question mark due to injury. Beachum is 37 YO. Adams' development is a question as well.
The team most likely needs one starting G and a RT of the future.
Plenty of options.. A few elite prospects that are most likely gone at #16 and a bigger group projected in the 20's and low 30's, a few projected 2nd rounder and then a ton of college RTs expected to play inside in the NFL in the mid-low 3rd round - note that half of the combine interviews were with these 60-90 range projected OTs.
Edge
This draft class is filled with edge rushers and the team could easily add more depth here. Looking at who they are bringing in for visits, I believe the team focus would be the quicker pure pass-rusher and there is an abundance of players fitting that mold projected from 1st overall to mid 2nd.
DT
The DT position room is full and have gone from worst to above average.But filled with older players or players realisticly only contributing for 1-2 years more (age or contract). I would love to add youth to the position but also be very selective if going DT and target a 0 tec space eater. Grant and Nolan are there in 1st. Not much in the 2nd round range and then a group in the 3rd e.g. Norman-Lott, Collins, Jordan Philips or Walker.
CB
Not a need IMO, but Samuel Jr. was brought in for a visit, so adding an outside CB at #16 could elevate a promising young group to elite level for the next 3 years. If Will Johnson drops to #16..
WR
Same as with CB. Not a big need IMO. McBride are MHJ are there and receiving threat #1 and #2, so I do not see the need to add a WR at #16. What I would like is to add is a complimentary speed WR to stretch the field. But that is more a Bond or Noel type in the 3rd round.
Other positions...
QB are not an option. Neither is S early IMO. TE and RB - only if an elite talent like TE Warren or Jeanty falls, which is unlikely.
It's going to be interesting if ILB Campbell falls to #16, but rumor is that the Bucs desperately want him, so phone will be ringing.
So, what will Monti do?
A couple of things are obvious looking at his previous draft:
- Monti is not afraid to move - up or down. Traded up for PJJ. Tried to trade up for Dallas Turner.
- Monti drafts by sequence and tiers. Traded out of #35 when they had Melton in the same tier as the other CBs in the early 2nd.
- Monti seems to be putting more value on athleticism than most other teams - PJJ, BJ, Reiman, Thomas, Melton, Adams and Jones all scored very very high on metrics.
So what would I do if I was Monti.
1. If an Elite players drops at one of the above positions despite being a secondary need. Draft him. If CB Will Johnson drops or OT Will Campbell drops because of his size limitations, I would jump on that immidiately. I feel the young CB group is good enough if the team add pass-rush. By drafting Johnson, the team could potentially have the best secondary in the league for the next 3 seasons.
Adding Will Campbel could give you an all-pro guard level player that you Could slide out to RT in the future.
2. If sticking at #16. Easy choice based on how the consensus board looks like. Edge is the pick. You could easily add one more player to the position and there most likely will be 3 Edge players available that would be drafted in the top 10 normally. Mykel Williams or Mike Green would be my preference here.
3. Listen to offers. Stock up on Day 2 picks by moving down 4-8 spots. I believe moving down no further than #24 is the sweet spot as Texans will be looking for OL. Bucs are rumored to love LB Campbell. Broncos want WR or TE. Would the Steelers want to secure Sanders if he falls?
Trading down opens the door to the 3rd and 4th OT and the too 2 Gs. DT #2-4 are also in the range here. Pick-up future starters at OL or DT and get 2-4 extra picks. Or just add an edge while getting more day 2 picks.
4. Add Edge and/or OL in the 2nd round if staying. Consider moving up for a OT or DT.
5. Add DT and/or OL in the third. This is my biggest no brainer. Huge group of players at both positions projected here.
Next waves.
3rd wave - Post draft FA additions to plug holes
4th wave - June 1st veteran cuts
(I'm guessing the two are merging a bit due to team being able to designate players as post 1st june cut and cut them immidiately)
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I highly disagree that OG is an easy first priority. For me it is edge rusher or DT, without a doubt. I would be a bit sad if they went any other direction at #16 (yes, I know it is a realistic risk).
