NBA standings predictions!

[Phrazbit]

Alright, league's rosters are pretty much set, not much to talk about. So lets talk projections!

All 30 teams, win/loss records. Whoever is the most accurate at the end of the year gets a cookie!

For the feint of heart you may take the option of just guessing the West, but you are ineligible for the cookie.

For those who want to aim for the extreme of accuracy; the league plays 1230 games a year, so your total wins added up league wide should hit that number.

 

[elindholm]

It's tempting, but my browser doesn't accept cookies.

 

[Phrazbit]

East:

Miami 65-17
Indiana 58-24
Brooklyn 55-27
Chicago 54-28
Cleveland 46-36
New York 44-38
Washington 46-36
Atlanta 40-42
Detroit 38-44
Milwaukee 32-50
Toronto 29-53
Charlotte 28-54
Boston 25-57
Orlando 20-62
Philly 14-68

West:

Clippers 63-19
OKC 58-24
Golden State 55-27
Spurs 54-28
Houston 53-30
Memphis 50-32
Minnesota 46-36
Portland 43-39
Lakers 38-44
Sacramento 37-45
Denver 36-46
Dallas 30-52
New Orleans 28-54
Utah 24-58
Phoenix 20-62

 

[Sci Fi]

East:

Miami 65-17
Indiana 58-24
Brooklyn 55-27
Chicago 54-28
Cleveland 46-36
New York 44-38
Washington 44-38
Atlanta 40-42
Detroit 38-44
Milwaukee 32-50
Toronto 29-53
Boston 28-54
Charlotte 28-54
Orlando 20-62
Philly 14-68

West:

Clippers 63-19
OKC 58-24
Golden State 55-27
Spurs 54-28
Houston 53-30
Memphis 50-32
Minnesota 46-36
Portland 43-39
Lakers 41-41
Sacramento 35-47
Denver 33-49
Dallas 30-52
New Orleans 28-54
Utah 24-58
Phoenix 22-60

Sorry, no cookie for you. Haven't thought much about the East yet but in the West you're quite a ways off. Under by about 20 on Dallas and at least 10 on the Suns and probably Denver. Seriously overrating GS, Clippers, Wolves, Portland and Houston. Two best teams in the West are Memphis and Spurs, although Memphis may start slow so likely won't finish second. Lakers will surprise, especially if Kobe isn't ready to play early. Houston won't get homecourt in the playoffs and there is an outside chance they miss the playoffs. This year will show the significance of good coaching.

 

[slinslin]

bwahahaha the Suns are not winning 32+ games and neither will Dallas win 50.

 

[Sci Fi]

bwahahaha the Suns are not winning 32+ games and neither will Dallas win 50.

You'll see. The Suns were projected to win 32-33 games last year by the bookies and only won 25 because of injuries, Beasley playing amazingly worse than expected even by his standards and having the two absolute worst coaches in the league by a country mile (well, actually Hunter wasn't that bad). The team is more talented this year and a much, much better coach. They'll be a lot better than expected.

As to Dallas, I like what they did. They won 41 last year with Dirk playing less than half the games healthy. They also had an awful close game record which should revert to the mean. They'll be really good on offense as Carlisle will reign Ellis in. Carlisle will make their defense serviceable. Dalambert is still quite good but the the key is Carlisle. Top 3 coach.

 

[Errntknght]

If we keep Gortat for the whole year we will probably win 30 games. We need to see an awful lot of the Morri and Plumlee manning the frontcourt to be under 25 wins. Even shedding Marcin at the trade deadline might not be good enough becuase Len could be getting somewhat comfortable by then.

I don't what Sci Fi is talking about regarding the Suns injuries last year - no one but Gortat missed a significant chunk of the season.

 

[Sci Fi]

If we keep Gortat for the whole year we will probably win 30 games. We need to see an awful lot of the Morri and Plumlee manning the frontcourt to be under 25 wins. Even shedding Marcin at the trade deadline might not be good enough becuase Len could be getting somewhat comfortable by then.

I don't what Sci Fi is talking about regarding the Suns injuries last year - no one but Gortat missed a significant chunk of the season.

Frye missed the whole year. O'Neil missed a ton. And the Gortat injury was huge. They played without a center basically. Something like 4-19.

 

[Phrazbit]

Frye missed the whole year. O'Neil missed a ton. And the Gortat injury was huge. They played without a center basically. Something like 4-19.

O'Neal is not even on the team this year and there is yet to be an indication Frye will play either. The Suns stayed remarkably healthy last year compared to the league as a whole. They've lost two of their most consistent players in Scola and Dudley, replaced them with rookies, who even if they play great for rookies will not reach that kind of output this early in their careers.

And if you disagree so strongly make your own list.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

having the two absolute worst coaches in the league by a country mile (well, actually Hunter wasn't that bad). The team is more talented this year and a much, much better coach.

What a laughable assertion. Alvin Gentry is widely respected as a good NBA coach. You can't make chicken salad with chicken, well, you know.

Horny has coached, all of what, summer league? To say he's a "much, much better coach" than Gentry is ludicrous.

 

[Errntknght]

Frye missed the whole year. O'Neil missed a ton. And the Gortat injury was huge. They played without a center basically. Something like 4-19.

The bookies knew, like everyone else, that Frye was out for the year. O'Neal was iffy at the start of the season and he had some family problems that took him away later but he was uninjured once he got going and played 55 games - an average year for him.

 

[Phrazbit]

What a laughable assertion. Alvin Gentry is widely respected as a good NBA coach. You can't make chicken salad with chicken, well, you know.

Horny has coached, all of what, summer league? To say he's a "much, much better coach" than Gentry is ludicrous.

Not to mention the claim that Hunter "was not that bad" in comparison to Gentry. Hunter couldnt even draw up his own plays, Bearded European Guy ran all the time outs, the most I saw out of Hunter was varying levels of confusion as his players wet the bed in one 25 point loss after another.

 

[Errntknght]

What a laughable assertion. Alvin Gentry is widely respected as a good NBA coach. You can't make chicken salad with chicken, well, you know.

Horny has coached, all of what, summer league? To say he's a "much, much better coach" than Gentry is ludicrous.

I have to admit that Sci Fi was over the top with his assertion but Gentry was not a good head coach. Granted he was in a very poor situation with Blanks as his boss but he was somewhat responsible for that because he never took a strong stance. The meek may inherit the earth (they may not want it, given the mess were making of it) but they do not do well as head coaches in the NBA.

Hornacek is off to a good start because he and his boss appear to see eye-to-eye and he has a fairly well defined plan of how he wants the team to play already - something that Gentry never had. I'd say the odds favor Hornacek being much better than head coach than Gentry but he's got to prove it.

 

[Sci Fi]

The bookies knew, like everyone else, that Frye was out for the year. O'Neal was iffy at the start of the season and he had some family problems that took him away later but he was uninjured once he got going and played 55 games - an average year for him.

Yes, you are correct about the bookie knowing about Frye's injury before the over/under was set. O'Neil missed a lot of time only playing about 1000 minutes. That's all that matters. Regardless, the injury thing wasn't that big of a difference maker. Full on ****** Gentry was sufficient.

 

[Phrazbit]

Also the "bookies" did not project the Suns to win 32-33 games.

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/30/the-full-monty-win-predictions-for-the-2012-13-nba-season/

There is a gambling prediction site, Suns @ 28 wins and contending with Sacramento for the cellar. Pretty accurate.

And seeing as the current NBA Futures bets that are available have the Suns as the least likely team to win the West, our win projections will be even lower this year.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I have to admit that Sci Fi was over the top with his assertion but Gentry was not a good head coach. Granted he was in a very poor situation with Blanks as his boss but he was somewhat responsible for that because he never took a strong stance.

Gentry seemed to be doing just fine when he took the Suns to the WCF. John Wooden and PJ couldn't have done anything with the crap roster we were working with last year. The NBA is a players league, and very few coaches have any appreciable impact.

Hornacek is off to a good start because he and his boss appear to see eye-to-eye and he has a fairly well defined plan of how he wants the team to play already - something that Gentry never had. I'd say the odds favor Hornacek being much better than head coach than Gentry but he's got to prove it.

Gentry's problem wasn't a lack of a plan, it was a lack of credible NBA players. I hope that Horny is better than Gentry, but considering his almost total lack of experience, there is no evidence to confidently assert that one way or the other.

 

[Sci Fi]

I have to admit that Sci Fi was over the top with his assertion but Gentry was not a good head coach. Granted he was in a very poor situation with Blanks as his boss but he was somewhat responsible for that because he never took a strong stance. The meek may inherit the earth (they may not want it, given the mess were making of it) but they do not do well as head coaches in the NBA.

Hornacek is off to a good start because he and his boss appear to see eye-to-eye and he has a fairly well defined plan of how he wants the team to play already - something that Gentry never had. I'd say the odds favor Hornacek being much better than head coach than Gentry but he's got to prove it.

Very good post except the part about me being over the top. My assessment of Gentry was spot on. He was AWFUL! In his final year, he changed away from a perfectly good offense to a new one. There was zero reason for this. Dragic had run the offense before in Phoenix and almost the same thing in Houston. Then, Gentry decides Beasley will be the Man, when Dragic had preformed at an All-Star level the following year when he started. Beasley had never done anything like this. Then, when Beasley sucks he benches Dudley and starts Brown. Great, now there are two inefficient, horrible chuckers in there. And then things got worse. That was Alvin Gentry. Clueless about what offense to run, who to play and who should shoot. Plus great defensive coaching as usual. Over the top. Hardly. He was fired about 15 games to late.

As to Hornacek, there is a lot of evidence to indicate he'll be good. You've highlighted a fair bit of it. There's more but no need to expand. The record will show that unless McDonough goes into tank mode early (which is a fear of mine. I hope he smarter than that.)

 

[Sci Fi]

Gentry seemed to be doing just fine when he took the Suns to the WCF. John Wooden and PJ couldn't have done anything with the crap roster we were working with last year. The NBA is a players league, and very few coaches have any appreciable impact.



Gentry's problem wasn't a lack of a plan, it was a lack of credible NBA players. I hope that Horny is better than Gentry, but considering his almost total lack of experience, there is no evidence to confidently assert that one way or the other.

There is plenty of evidence to indicate what Hornacek will be like. You just don't see it.

 

[Sci Fi]

Also the "bookies" did not project the Suns to win 32-33 games.

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/30/the-full-monty-win-predictions-for-the-2012-13-nba-season/

There is a gambling prediction site, Suns @ 28 wins and contending with Sacramento for the cellar. Pretty accurate.

And seeing as the current NBA Futures bets that are available have the Suns as the least likely team to win the West, our win projections will be even lower this year.

Yes, the bookies did predict exactly as I said. I find you a link later. As to your link, that's not a gambling prediction site. It's one guy making a prediction.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

There is plenty of evidence to indicate what Hornacek will be like. You just don't see it.

Pray tell. His press conferences? Why don't we bring up some of Hunter's interviews?

Right now, despite the fact that Jeff is a promising hire, we have nothing to go on in terms of actual results.

Show me, don't tell me.

 

[Phrazbit]

Yes, the bookies did predict exactly as I said. I find you a link later. As to your link, that's not a gambling prediction site. It's one guy making a prediction.

Yeah, the site WAGESofwins has nothing to do with gambling... lol

And even so, the current projections for NEXT year all have the Suns rated as the worst team in the conference. So if you're going to put so much stock in what the gambling experts have to say then you should probably adjust your expectations.

 

[Errntknght]

Yeah, the site WAGESofwins has nothing to do with gambling... lol

I follow that site somewhat and I've never seen anything to do with gambling mentioned. Everything I've read indicates that he is the numbers geek he says he is.

The guy is thorough but the metric underlying his methods is wins produced which is essentially a variation on PER. His predictions are not bad but they're not strikingly good either. One weakness in it is that he has to project wins produced for rookies, who don't have any NBA history to go on so he's jury rigged that part of it - if you look around his site he does have a description of how he does it and how he plans to improve it.

 

[Mainstreet]

Very good post except the part about me being over the top. My assessment of Gentry was spot on. He was AWFUL! In his final year, he changed away from a perfectly good offense to a new one. There was zero reason for this. Dragic had run the offense before in Phoenix and almost the same thing in Houston. Then, Gentry decides Beasley will be the Man, when Dragic had preformed at an All-Star level the following year when he started. Beasley had never done anything like this. Then, when Beasley sucks he benches Dudley and starts Brown. Great, now there are two inefficient, horrible chuckers in there. And then things got worse. That was Alvin Gentry. Clueless about what offense to run, who to play and who should shoot. Plus great defensive coaching as usual. Over the top. Hardly. He was fired about 15 games to late.

I think Gentry became a lame duck his final season with Blanks making personnel decisions and being a backseat driver. Beasley was Blank's pet project. There were no answers for Gentry on the Suns roster. Dragic certainly could not carry the Suns.

 

[SirStefan32]

I don't blame Gentry for anything that happened last year. He was given a terrible roster, and had Hunter/ Blanks watching him and just waiting for him to fail.
Don't get me wrong, I think it was time for a major change, as I really believe that a new GM should always equal a new head coach because it is critical for those two to be on the same page, but blaming Alvin for anything that occurred last season is just silly.

 

[Chaplin]

Very good post except the part about me being over the top. My assessment of Gentry was spot on. He was AWFUL! In his final year, he changed away from a perfectly good offense to a new one. There was zero reason for this. Dragic had run the offense before in Phoenix and almost the same thing in Houston. Then, Gentry decides Beasley will be the Man, when Dragic had preformed at an All-Star level the following year when he started. Beasley had never done anything like this. Then, when Beasley sucks he benches Dudley and starts Brown. Great, now there are two inefficient, horrible chuckers in there. And then things got worse. That was Alvin Gentry. Clueless about what offense to run, who to play and who should shoot. Plus great defensive coaching as usual. Over the top. Hardly. He was fired about 15 games to late.

Um, you know there was a point guard that went to the Lakers that facilitated the change of offense, right? Dragic is no Nash, no matter how much you like to think he is.

Gentry was hampered by the players that Blanks gave him. If you can't see that, you're not watching as closely as you claim.