NBA standings predictions!

[Superbone]

Sci Fi is so far off base on Gentry, it's not even funny.

 

[Sci Fi]

I follow that site somewhat and I've never seen anything to do with gambling mentioned. Everything I've read indicates that he is the numbers geek he says he is.

The guy is thorough but the metric underlying his methods is wins produced which is essentially a variation on PER. His predictions are not bad but they're not strikingly good either. One weakness in it is that he has to project wins produced for rookies, who don't have any NBA history to go on so he's jury rigged that part of it - if you look around his site he does have a description of how he does it and how he plans to improve it.

Pre-med pre-law. what's the difference?

Anyhow, here's the link showing last year's expected wins.

http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8068

All picks are summarized in the sixth post. Like I said, Bovada had the Suns at 31.6 and LVH had them at 33.3. These are actually gaming sites. Phrazz will be happy WoW is included. Follow the thread and see how poorly they did.

 

[Sci Fi]

Um, you know there was a point guard that went to the Lakers that facilitated the change of offense, right? Dragic is no Nash, no matter how much you like to think he is.

Gentry was hampered by the players that Blanks gave him. If you can't see that, you're not watching as closely as you claim.

How about you believe me I watched the Suns closely and I'll believe you attended your course in logic. I must have missed the class where it showed that a change in PG required a change in the offensive system.

 

[Sci Fi]

Sci Fi is so far off base on Gentry, it's not even funny.

What's really funny is how everyone defends Gentry and all they can say is "Gee, shucks, he's a good coach! Look, all the "experts" say he is. Poor guy, he had a bad team. Poor Alvin." Now that's FUNNY!

 

[Phrazbit]

What's really funny is how everyone defends Gentry and all they can say is "Gee, shucks, he's a good coach! Look, all the "experts" say he is. Poor guy, he had a bad team. Poor Alvin." Now that's FUNNY!

Yeah, its not like he ever coached a team to the conference finals.

 

[Sci Fi]

Yeah, its not like Nash ever coached a team to the conference finals.

FTFY. You're welcome.

 

[Phrazbit]

FTFY. You're welcome.

Yeah, that bench unit that played so well together, that murdered the Spurs... thats all Nash right there. He used his powers of telepathy to make sure that team played well even while he rested. Nash also must have taken a rest from "coaching" when Terry Porter was in charge.

 

[AzStevenCal]

FTFY. You're welcome.

Yes, by all means, blame Gentry for all that goes wrong but credit someone else for anything that went right.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

I've never been very high on Gentry, I've always thought he was a mediocre coach at best. But I don't lay any of the blame on him for our train wreck last season. He had little to work with and it was apparent that there were behind-the-scenes politics being played by Blanks and probably Hunter. It was also clear that Alvin was a lame duck coach and when in the history of this league have players ever given their all for a lame duck coach? It just doesn't happen.

Steve

 

[Sci Fi]

Yes, by all means, blame Gentry for all that goes wrong but credit someone else for anything that went right.

Steve

Actually, Steve, I was being a bit (a lot?) snarky with Phrazz. Truth is, I think Gentry deserved Coach of the Year that season. Still doesn't mean he didn't suck last year. Whoa Neely! Did he ever.

 

[Chaplin]

How about you believe me I watched the Suns closely and I'll believe you attended your course in logic. I must have missed the class where it showed that a change in PG required a change in the offensive system.

STEVE NASH. Nobody can do what he did on the court. Nobody. We tried making Dragic into Nash, it didn't work and we traded him away.

We tried for YEARS to mold a point guard into Nash. It didn't work. Not once. How do you keep an offense, when your instigator of said offense is no longer on the the team?

 

[Phrazbit]

Actually, Steve, I was being a bit (a lot?) snarky with Phrazz. Truth is, I think Gentry deserved Coach of the Year that season. Still doesn't mean he didn't suck last year. Whoa Neely! Did he ever.

What was he supposed to do? He got lumped with some horrible players, Blanks proclaimed Beasley the savoir, all in all Gentry dumped Beasley from the rotation about as fast as circumstances allowed. That team was obviously horrible and their results were no surprising.

Next year's team is likely going to be as bad or worse... and I'm leaning towards worse.

You disagree... go ahead and post your own predictions.

 

[BC867]

STEVE NASH. Nobody can do what he did on the court. Nobody.

And then each season wound down.

Unfortunately, MVSteve started each of his last few seasons with the strength of March winds and ended with the tenderness of April showers.

As much as we enjoyed his valuable performances when he had it all together, he was aches and pains and reduced stamina during the most important part of the schedule. From lion to lamb. And the opponents knew it.

In the long run, a 100% player 60% of the time doesn't yield better results than a 60% player 100% percent of the time.

Unable to sit on the bench when given a breather was also what he did "on the court" flat on his back. Unfortunately.

 

[Sci Fi]

STEVE NASH. Nobody can do what he did on the court. Nobody. We tried making Dragic into Nash, it didn't work and we traded him away.

We tried for YEARS to mold a point guard into Nash. It didn't work. Not once. How do you keep an offense, when your instigator of said offense is no longer on the the team?

You should post more.

 

[Chaplin]

And then each season wound down.

Unfortunately, MVSteve started each of his last few seasons with the strength of March winds and ended with the tenderness of April showers.

As much as we enjoyed his valuable performances when he had it all together, he was aches and pains and reduced stamina during the most important part of the schedule. From lion to lamb. And the opponents knew it.

In the long run, a 100% player 60% of the time doesn't yield better results than a 60% player 100% percent of the time.

Unable to sit on the bench when given a breather was also what he did "on the court" flat on his back. Unfortunately.

That may be all true, but irrelevant. We're talking about why Gentry changed the offense after Nash left. I'm just saying that Nash was the offense, and that style left with him. Gentry had no choice but to change it up.

 

[Neo]

How about you believe me I watched the Suns closely and I'll believe you attended your course in logic. I must have missed the class where it showed that a change in PG required a change in the offensive system.

You probably should have attended that class.

Offensive systems should match capabilities of the players on the team.
The capabilities of the players on the team have changed and cannot revert back to the previous capabilities.
Therefore the system should change.

That is a classic example Modus Ponendo Ponens, or modus ponens. It is probably the first thing covered after the syllabus in a logic course.

 

[Errntknght]

Not to mention the fact that Dragic had quite conclusively proved he could not play the Nash system. The only time he did well here was when he played with a well defined second unit which played together enough to play a different style. Sadly Gentry never understood that and when he forced Goran to be a normal backup the next season, he played even worse in that role than he had before. Gentry's failure to grasp that is one of the reasons I don't think he is a good coach.

 

[Sci Fi]

Lakers over at 33.5 wins is free money in Vegas. Nash, Pau and D'Antoni magic starts tonight. Gonna be fun watching the Lakers challenge the Rockets.

 

[elindholm]

Lakers over at 33.5 wins is free money in Vegas.

Boy, that's for sure. Is that an even-money bet? Wow.

 

[slinslin]

And then each season wound down.

Unfortunately, MVSteve started each of his last few seasons with the strength of March winds and ended with the tenderness of April showers.

As much as we enjoyed his valuable performances when he had it all together, he was aches and pains and reduced stamina during the most important part of the schedule. From lion to lamb. And the opponents knew it.

In the long run, a 100% player 60% of the time doesn't yield better results than a 60% player 100% percent of the time.

Unable to sit on the bench when given a breather was also what he did "on the court" flat on his back. Unfortunately.

Jesus this is surreal, Nash had some of the best playoff performances of all time.
Just look at his series against Dallas, you have to look up some of the very best performances of Jordan or Lebron to find similiar dominance displayed by a player.

 

[sunsfan88]

I've never been very high on Gentry, I've always thought he was a mediocre coach at best. But I don't lay any of the blame on him for our train wreck last season. He had little to work with and it was apparent that there were behind-the-scenes politics being played by Blanks and probably Hunter. It was also clear that Alvin was a lame duck coach and when in the history of this league have players ever given their all for a lame duck coach? It just doesn't happen.

Steve

Tom Coughlin....both times.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Tom Coughlin....both times.

Notice I said "this league". There is a world of difference between the NFL and the NBA and the way coaches are hired and fired. Basketball players are notorious for ignoring coaches they perceive to be on a short hook. Too many NFL players are a game away from the end of their season or even their career at any given time to throw the kind of tantrums that NBA players throw.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

I'm predicting the Grizz win the WC in the playoffs... maybe not the first seed but I think they'll be very well constructed for the playoffs. They are deep in the frontcourt - Ed Davis came on strongly last year and they added Koufos to go along with Gasol and Zach. Koufos was the most efficient offensive player in the league last year and rebounds well plus blocks shots a good rate. The did a good job of removing debris, too - their five least efficient players all got the boot.

Using last years data for their new set of players they have a slightly higher offensive efficiency than Miami did and Miami was the top team in that stat. Miami wasn't head and shoulders above everyone else but they were also a good defensive team. You know Lionel Hollins' teams are no slouches on defense either and this one is going to own the paint.

They are thin in the backcourt so they aren't as well balanced as they might be.

 

[Superbone]

You know Lionel Hollins' teams are no slouches on defense either and this one is going to own the paint.

Hollins was fired. David Joerger is the new head coach.

 

[Errntknght]

Hollins was fired. David Joerger is the new head coach.

Well, crap. Why'd they go and do that?

Now that you mention it, I remember reading a while back that Hollins wasn't getting along too well with the new owners but I figured it had blown over.