Need for QB??

[Dougmo]

I keep seeing people having us take a QB in the later rounds (from 3 down), but I just don't see it.
Yes, we are less than solid at QB. To me, the Payton Manning situation makes all the sense in the world (or Andrew Luck/RGIII if we were in that position) but not another develpmental guy.
We have 2 of those already who both have starting potential and both need extensive time under center to see how they develop.
Why would we invest a pick in another 'potential' QB, and further dilute the repetitions our current guys need?
I also think Bartel is an above-average 3rd option so no immediate need to upgrade that.
I just don't see any way we'd take another developmental guy this year.

If after another year of seasoning neither Kolb or Skelton has taken the next step, that changes things.

This year, I think we roll with what we have at QB and see what develops.
To me, I feel pretty good about our QB's potential. I suppose I'm more optimistic than most.

 

[Garthshort]

Dougmo, I agree. We usually take four QB's to camp, so an UDFA is a distinct possibility. But I guess if there is a developmental type available in the 7th round(that we really like) then I could see him as a pick. But I doubt it. I'm thinking Matt Barkley or Landry Jones if Kolb and Skelton struggle this year. I just hope it doesn't come to that.

 

[Cardiac]

Mike Mayock just threw out some interesting stats about drafting QB's and in what round a team finds success. In the past 8 drafts about 65% of QB's drafted in rd1 are now starters.

23 taken in rd1 and 15 are starters.

83 QB's taken in rds 2 thru 7 and only 7 have become starters. This is less than 10%.

Only 2 of those from rd2 - Dalton and Kolb

Rd3 Schaub and McCoy.

Nobody in rds 4,5 and 6.

Rd7 only 3 - Flynn, Cassel and Fitzpatrick.

These stats don't measure true success since Mayock is only listing starters and not how good they actually are.

Long winded way of saying I agree that we shouldn't draft a QB this year.

 

[WildBB]

Mike Mayock just threw out some interesting stats about drafting QB's and in what round a team finds success. In the past 8 drafts about 65% of QB's drafted in rd1 are now starters.

23 taken in rd1 and 15 are starters.

83 QB's taken in rds 2 thru 7 and only 7 have become starters. This is less than 10%.

Only 2 of those from rd2 - Dalton and Kolb

Rd3 Schaub and McCoy.

Nobody in rds 4,5 and 6.

Rd7 only 3 - Flynn, Cassel and Fitzpatrick.

These stats don't measure true success since Mayock is only listing starters and not how good they actually are.

Long winded way of saying I agree that we shouldn't draft a QB this year.

Yeah I see it that way. After round 3 your really just drawing lots for the most.

Btw, we had a 5th Rd. starter last yr. Fighting for the job this yr.

 

[Reddog]

Tom Brady = Round 6

 

[WildBB]

Tom Brady = Round 6

He was talking past 8 yrs. Brady is beyond that now.

 

[Solar7]

While I agree that we already have our young, developmental guy in Skelton, if we really see something in a later round QB, it's worth the pick-up, even if it's just for an eventual trade. I'm not saying that we should spend a third rounder on a guy, but if someone with talent has dropped into the 5th or 6th, it couldn't hurt.

 

[Cardiac]

Yeah I see it that way. After round 3 your really just drawing lots for the most.

Btw, we had a 5th Rd. starter last yr. Fighting for the job this yr.

Based on the "stats" the only chance Skelton has is that he was a Cards
5th rd pick and for whatever reason that rd is magical for us in recent years.

 

[Cardiac]

While I agree that we already have our young, developmental guy in Skelton, if we really see something in a later round QB, it's worth the pick-up, even if it's just for an eventual trade. I'm not saying that we should spend a third rounder on a guy, but if someone with talent has dropped into the 5th or 6th, it couldn't hurt.

I would have agreed a couple of years ago but at this point I'd rather draft a punter than a QB in the 5th or 6th rd. Doesn't mean I think we are all set at QB just that I'd rather get a player that could contribute instead of basically throwing the pick away.

 

[JeffGollin]

Think BPA instead of position.

If a QB sits atop our BPA board late in the draft (with no other player rated close) I could see us drafting one.

 

[Duckjake]

Based on the "stats" the only chance Skelton has is that he was a Cards
5th rd pick and for whatever reason that rd is magical for us in recent years.

One obvious reason that most starting QBs come from round 1 is that teams in need of a starting QB almost, but not always, take that guy in round one. So QBs drafted in later rounds will go to teams with an established QB and don't get near the opportunity to become a starter as the first round guys.

Tom Brady is always brought up as an example of a late round QB making it big but he only got a chance because the starter got hurt. Same thing for UDFA Kurt Warner. Also usually the case for 2nd and later round backups who go to other teams and become the starter. They got an opportunity playing while the starter was out. Cassel, Kolb and Schaub fit here.

 

[john h]

While I agree that we already have our young, developmental guy in Skelton, if we really see something in a later round QB, it's worth the pick-up, even if it's just for an eventual trade. I'm not saying that we should spend a third rounder on a guy, but if someone with talent has dropped into the 5th or 6th, it couldn't hurt.

I tend to agree with you Solar.

 

[john h]

Based on the "stats" the only chance Skelton has is that he was a Cards
5th rd pick and for whatever reason that rd is magical for us in recent years.

I think our best hope is Skelton but he will still be a long shot. He has the tools: size, arm
and courage. He had a decent last half and won some games with very little playing experience. If he adapts to recognizing defenses and understanding our offense he has the possibility of making it as our QBOTF. He also needs to be more accurate. He is still a long shot but perhaps the best long shot we have had in some time for a young man. I just hope he gets off to a good start and not forced to do more than he is capable of doing with so little NFL experience. We very easily end up with Bartel in there if Skelton falters and Kolb has injury problems. Drafting a QB after round three is certainly not out of the question if there is one on the board that even has a possibility.

What is sad to me is that no matter who we draft he likely will not play into our success or failure this year. We are not drafting real impact players such as RB's, WR's or QBs. Our team did a very good job the last half of last season, in particular our defense. I was very happy to see us finish 8/8 after a horrible start and the total failure of Kolb. I do no know if we can carry over that great defense or if it was a matter of luck? With our QB situation I think it may be hard to match 8/8 again this season. If one of our QB's emerge we could be better. That is a very big IF.

 

[Duckjake]

I think our best hope is Skelton but he will still be a long shot. He has the tools: size, arm
and courage. He had a decent last half and won some games with very little playing experience. If he adapts to recognizing defenses and understanding our offense he has the possibility of making it as our QBOTF. He also needs to be more accurate. He is still a long shot but perhaps the best long shot we have had in some time for a young man. I just hope he gets off to a good start and not forced to do more than he is capable of doing with so little NFL experience. We very easily end up with Bartel in there if Skelton falters and Kolb has injury problems. Drafting a QB after round three is certainly not out of the question if there is one on the board that even has a possibility.

What is sad to me is that no matter who we draft he likely will not play into our success or failure this year. We are not drafting real impact players such as RB's, WR's or QBs. Our team did a very good job the last half of last season, in particular our defense. I was very happy to see us finish 8/8 after a horrible start and the total failure of Kolb. I do not know if we can carry over that great defense or if it was a matter of luck? With our QB situation I think it may be hard to match 8/8 again this season. If one of our QB's emerge we could be better. That is a very big IF.

It's really hard to say what Is going to happen this fall with our team. One is that they played with a shortened training period and two, they won 4 overtime games. Lose those and they're 4-12. Plus they didn't exactly play the NFLs best offensive teams the last half of the season.

On the other hand they lost 4 games they could have won, Seattle, Washington, NYG and Ravens who they had down 24-6 at halftime so they could have been 12-4. And they found a way to win those close second half games.

I'd say the more rational hope for 2012 is that the Cards are an 8-8 team with the opportunity, like other teams in a similar situation, to grab a playoff spot at 9-7 or 10-6.

But these are the Cardinals so they'll probable get a couple of blown calls, a couple of key injuries and finish..... 5-11.

 

[Dougmo]

One obvious reason that most starting QBs come from round 1 is that teams in need of a starting QB almost, but not always, take that guy in round one. So QBs drafted in later rounds will go to teams with an established QB and don't get near the opportunity to become a starter as the first round guys.

Tom Brady is always brought up as an example of a late round QB making it big but he only got a chance because the starter got hurt. Same thing for UDFA Kurt Warner. Also usually the case for 2nd and later round backups who go to other teams and become the starter. They got an opportunity playing while the starter was out. Cassel, Kolb and Schaub fit here.

Good point. Never thought about it that way.

 

[Dougmo]

I think our best hope is Skelton but he will still be a long shot. He has the tools: size, arm
and courage. He had a decent last half and won some games with very little playing experience. If he adapts to recognizing defenses and understanding our offense he has the possibility of making it as our QBOTF. He also needs to be more accurate. He is still a long shot but perhaps the best long shot we have had in some time for a young man. I just hope he gets off to a good start and not forced to do more than he is capable of doing with so little NFL experience. We very easily end up with Bartel in there if Skelton falters and Kolb has injury problems. Drafting a QB after round three is certainly not out of the question if there is one on the board that even has a possibility.

What is sad to me is that no matter who we draft he likely will not play into our success or failure this year. We are not drafting real impact players such as RB's, WR's or QBs. Our team did a very good job the last half of last season, in particular our defense. I was very happy to see us finish 8/8 after a horrible start and the total failure of Kolb. I do no know if we can carry over that great defense or if it was a matter of luck? With our QB situation I think it may be hard to match 8/8 again this season. If one of our QB's emerge we could be better. That is a very big IF.

I'm hopefull that our improved run game can provide us more offensive success with less demands on our QB. Heck-our defense allowed Skeltons less-then-impressive efforts to win most of those games at the end, and that was with a banged-up Beanie. If we have a healthy Beanie and Williams lives up to his preseason promise, we could have as dynamic a run game as we've ever had.
Developing a safety blanket for the QB (TE or RB in the flat) could go along way to improving our QB play as well.
If these were to happen I think both Skelton and Kolb are good enough to improve on last years record.
If our defense could continue it's upward trajectory, we could be like a sore peter - hard to beat!

 

[Duckjake]

I'm hopefull that our improved run game can provide us more offensive success with less demands on our QB. Heck-our defense allowed Skeltons less-then-impressive efforts to win most of those games at the end, and that was with a banged-up Beanie. If we have a healthy Beanie and Williams lives up to his preseason promise, we could have as dynamic a run game as we've ever had.
Developing a safety blanket for the QB (TE or RB in the flat) could go along way to improving our QB play as well.
If these were to happen I think both Skelton and Kolb are good enough to improve on last years record.
If our defense could continue it's upward trajectory, we could be like a sore peter - hard to beat!

Less than impressive stats but not less than impressive efforts. The Defense didn't score any points the last half the season (did they score any points at all last season?) The D forced fewer turnovers over the last 8 games than the first 8 and PP21 only had one of his returns for TDs during the last 8 games.

The last 5 games that Skelton took most of the snaps in 2011 the Cards averaged almost 21 points a game. Double Duece is awesome!!!!



Note: the Duckjake jinx season starts for Cardinal players after completion of the draft. From that point on Double Duece becomes Double Dunce. Right now I can only jinx draft eligible players.

 

[Cardiac]

One obvious reason that most starting QBs come from round 1 is that teams in need of a starting QB almost, but not always, take that guy in round one. So QBs drafted in later rounds will go to teams with an established QB and don't get near the opportunity to become a starter as the first round guys.

Tom Brady is always brought up as an example of a late round QB making it big but he only got a chance because the starter got hurt. Same thing for UDFA Kurt Warner. Also usually the case for 2nd and later round backups who go to other teams and become the starter. They got an opportunity playing while the starter was out. Cassel, Kolb and Schaub fit here.

And yet there are several teams still looking for a starting QB. Maybe, just maybe QB's drafted in mid to late rounds are not good enough to be a starter in the NFL and then they don't.

Just as any position in the NFL talented players slip through the cracks and become steals in the mid to late rounds and even as UDFA's. What the focus of Mayock's statement was that with QB's it very rare and especially in the past decade.

 

[WildBB]

I would have agreed a couple of years ago but at this point I'd rather draft a punter than a QB in the 5th or 6th rd. Doesn't mean I think we are all set at QB just that I'd rather get a player that could contribute instead of basically throwing the pick away.

Yeah, I think Sherman the FB was our 5th Rd. coup last yr. , maybe this year it'll be the punter. Maybe we should start stock piling those suckers!

 

[JeffGollin]

Yeah, I think Sherman the FB was our 5th Rd. coup last yr...

But did we pick him because he was a FB? Or did we pick him because he was top-rated player remaining on our round 5 board?

 

[WildBB]

But did we pick him because he was a FB? Or did we pick him because he was top-rated player remaining on our round 5 board?

No I was just inferring that since they took a more obscure positioned player last yr. (FB), maybe they'll do the same this year with a P.

Yeah, Sherman could indeed have been their highest rated at the time or because they already drafted CB, RB, TE, OLB he took precedent over someone else because of PON (FB). Will happen again mtl, like you pointed out earlier.

 

[Cardiac]

Yeah, I think Sherman the FB was our 5th Rd. coup last yr. , maybe this year it'll be the punter. Maybe we should start stock piling those suckers!

2011 Sherman
2010 Skelton
2009 Herm Johnson
2008 Tim Hightower
2007 Breaston

All 5th rd picks during the Whiz regime.

I agree, pick up some more 5th rd picks. Just don't draft any O-line there.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I'm still of the mindset to take a flyer and draft Russell Wilson, the QB out of Wisconsin if he is there late in the draft

 

[Duckjake]

And yet there are several teams still looking for a starting QB. Maybe, just maybe QB's drafted in mid to late rounds are not good enough to be a starter in the NFL and then they don't.

Just as any position in the NFL talented players slip through the cracks and become steals in the mid to late rounds and even as UDFA's. What the focus of Mayock's statement was that with QB's it very rare and especially in the past decade.

Could be but since 2004 23 QBs have been drafted in the first round. Only 11 in the 2nd and 10 in the third and only 5 in the 4th.

During that same time frame 31 QBs have been selected in rounds 5&6 combined which tells me that is where teams are looking for their #2's and those guys are going to get #2 and #3 QB reps in practice and seldom get any real game experience. Tough to develop into a top NFL QB under those circumstances.

One other thing is the top talents at QB tend to play for a long time so it may be 10-15 years before any other QB has a chance to become a starter for that franchise.

Jim Hart played for the Cardinals for 18 years.

Of course you're probably right that only 2-3 college QBs a year have the talent to start in the NFL which is probably true. It's an extremely tough position.

But that's not as much fun as discussing my off the wall theories

 

[Cardiac]

Could be but since 2004 23 QBs have been drafted in the first round. Only 11 in the 2nd and 10 in the third and only 5 in the 4th.

During that same time frame 31 QBs have been selected in rounds 5&6 combined which tells me that is where teams are looking for their #2's and those guys are going to get #2 and #3 QB reps in practice and seldom get any real game experience. Tough to develop into a top NFL QB under those circumstances.

One other thing is the top talents at QB tend to play for a long time so it may be 10-15 years before any other QB has a chance to become a starter for that franchise.

Jim Hart played for the Cardinals for 18 years.

Of course you're probably right that only 2-3 college QBs a year have the talent to start in the NFL which is probably true. It's an extremely tough position.

But that's not as much fun as discussing my off the wall theories

I wonder how many Peyton Manning and Brett Favre's there are who played a ton of consecutive games in a row?

I'm sure that has been a couple of QB's in the past 10 years that never got that true break and could have become a starter at some point in their career but I seriously doubt that Tom Brady and Kurt Warner would have never been given a chance at some point.