New Owner - Mat Ishbia

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I mentioned the Suns would be able to trade their 2031 first round draft pick. Then one would have to project spacing without violating the seven-year rule going forward.

That’s not exactly rocket science. And it means after 3-4 years (the KD run) we can swing another deal using future picks and swaps.

 

[JCSunsfan]

That’s not exactly rocket science. And it means after 3-4 years (the KD run) we can swing another deal using future picks and swaps.

Beale has four years left (FA summer of 27), KD has three (FA summer of 26), Ayton has three (FA summer of 26), Book has five (FA summer of 28). The rest of our roster is basically low-cost, one-year deals.

A lot of money will come off the books over those three years (26-28). As long as Ishbia doesn't trade for bad contracts there will be an opportunity to reload with free agents. There will be a lot of options. Ayton will likely be gone no matter how he plays from here forward. Who knows, maybe he really excels and we decide to keep him. With a new coach and new environment, I could see him resigning here.

If we falter and it looks like this team is not going to make it by the end of this year or next, there will be lots of interest in Beale and Book, and even KD. The closer Beale's contract is to the end, the more valuable he will be as a player (assuming he plays well). It is less risk and the cap goes up. Book will be worth a lot, and even KD should bring back a first rounder or two as long as he does not retire.

We will either be able to trade Book and rebuild, or continue to try to rebuild around Book. What we cannot do is let Book get to then end of his contract and walk. We either have to resign him or get trade value for him.

 

[Hoop Head]

Beale has four years left (FA summer of 27), KD has three (FA summer of 26), Ayton has three (FA summer of 26), Book has five (FA summer of 28). The rest of our roster is basically low-cost, one-year deals.

A lot of money will come off the books over those three years (26-28). As long as Ishbia doesn't trade for bad contracts there will be an opportunity to reload with free agents. There will be a lot of options. Ayton will likely be gone no matter how he plays from here forward. Who knows, maybe he really excels and we decide to keep him. With a new coach and new environment, I could see him resigning here.

If we falter and it looks like this team is not going to make it by the end of this year or next, there will be lots of interest in Beale and Book, and even KD. The closer Beale's contract is to the end, the more valuable he will be as a player (assuming he plays well). It is less risk and the cap goes up. Book will be worth a lot, and even KD should bring back a first rounder or two as long as he does not retire.

We will either be able to trade Book and rebuild, or continue to try to rebuild around Book. What we cannot do is let Book get to then end of his contract and walk. We either have to resign him or get trade value for him.

I think you're forgetting Beal still has a no trade clause. He has to approve any move we make. We won't be able to unload him easily as a salary dump anywhere. That's the reason we got him so cheap from Washington. He can dictate almost all the terms of a trade. So I wouldn't count on moving him for any value whatsoever.

 

[Phrazbit]

If Durant and Beal are still good players, we won’t want to trade them… if injuries have taken their toll, we won’t be able to trade them.

Either way, I think Ayton is our only significant trade chip for the next several seasons, because trading Booker would be suicidal.

 

[Mainstreet]

The Suns can't trade future 1st round picks until 2030. Actually, it may be 2031. It's the Stepien Rule.

I mentioned the Suns would be able to trade their 2031 first round draft pick. Then one would have to project spacing without violating the seven-year rule going forward.

Reluctantly, I want to clarify the above, but I believe what I said was essentially correct, but the Stepien Rule is complicated.

As of now, the Suns cannot trade a future first round pick before the year 2031 that would convey. The operative word is "future" which I said.

I didn't discuss trading draft picks that would convey after 2031.

Certainly things can change, but I'm talking about the present... now. The Suns could also acquire a first round pick in a trade which could then be traded.

During the draft, in a year when the Suns own a first round pick, they can trade it, but at that point it would no longer be the future.

Under the Stepien Rule, a team cannot be without a first-round pick in consecutive drafts. Teams can only trade draft picks, first or second round, up to seven years in the future.

Yes, the seven-year time frame will move which might be a point of confusion, but the first 1st round draft pick that the Suns can trade will be in the year 2031 unless things change.

I understand some may be projecting beyond the 2031 draft.

Anyway, this is what I was attempting to say without getting into all the complexities.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Reluctantly, I want to clarify the above, but I believe what I said was essentially correct, but the Stepien Rule is complicated.

As of now, the Suns cannot trade a future first round pick before the year 2031 that would convey. The operative word is "future" which I said.

I didn't discuss trading draft picks that would convey after 2031.

Certainly things can change, but I'm talking about the present... now. The Suns could also acquire a first round pick in a trade which could then be traded.

During the draft, in a year when the Suns own a first round pick, they can trade it, but at that point it would no longer be the future.

Under the Stepien Rule, a team cannot be without a first-round pick in consecutive drafts. Teams can only trade draft picks, first or second round, up to seven years in the future.

Yes, the seven-year time frame will move which might be a point of confusion, but the first 1st round draft pick that the Suns can trade will be in the year 2031 unless things change.

I understand some may be projecting beyond the 2031 draft.

Anyway, this is what I was attempting to say without getting into all the complexities.

I think you’re still missing the point. The Suns will be able to trade the 2031 pick next year (or in 2025). And then the 2033 pick in 2027.

You’re making it out to seem like from now until 2031, the Suns can’t trade any first round picks. They can’t trade picks in the drafts from now to 2031, but as we go into future seasons from 2024-2031, we will be able to use future draft picks to continue to try and improve the team.

 

[Mainstreet]

I made it clear there is a moving seven-year window. The first 1st round draft pick the Suns can trade that will convey is 2031. This changes as time moves forward.

If the Suns could have traded future first round picks now, they probably would have.

 

[Raindog]

I made it clear there is a moving seven-year window. The first 1st round draft pick the Suns can trade that will convey is 2031. This changes as time moves forward.

If the Suns could have traded future first round picks now, they probably would have.

I more or less got what you were saying. The way you worded it was ambiguous, which is what I, Cheesebeef, and Ouchie were all saying. As you had originally worded it, it sounded like you meant the Suns could not make another trade of any of their future first round picks until after the next seven seasons have elapsed... which is not correct. They can trade another first round pick after next season.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I made it clear there is a moving seven-year window. The first 1st round draft pick the Suns can trade that will convey is 2031. This changes as time moves forward.

If the Suns could have traded future first round picks now, they probably would have.

Agreed. But my point was about the suns using those future picks in a trade that would likely occur in three years - when KD’s window is coming to a close. They could be used to acquire the next star as KD’s replacement. And then again three years later when beals window comes to a close. They can keep reloading the current design (3 superstars) as long as (a) they are fine with ditching distant first rounders for present stars, (b) book + beal/KD’s replacement remain attractive to disgruntled stars; (c) the suns remain a destination franchise; and (d) ishbia continues to be willing to pay mega bucks. It’s essentially just adopting the strategy of constantly leveraging the future - which can be done ad infinitum if the facts remain somewhat constant.

 

[Covert Rain]

Agreed. But my point was about the suns using those future picks in a trade that would likely occur in three years - when KD’s window is coming to a close. They could be used to acquire the next star as KD’s replacement. And then again three years later when beals window comes to a close. They can keep reloading the current design (3 superstars) as long as (a) they are fine with ditching distant first rounders for present stars, (b) book + beal/KD’s replacement remain attractive to disgruntled stars; (c) the suns remain a destination franchise; and (d) ishbia continues to be willing to pay mega bucks. It’s essentially just adopting the strategy of constantly leveraging the future - which can be done ad infinitum if the facts remain somewhat constant.

Yep, it's not all doom and gloom is the bottom line. The Suns will have options. You can even make draft day trades. The odds are so stacked against any of these picks amounting to much anyway it's like playing a state lottery odds wise. It's not like the Suns have traded a lottery pick in the draft. I just don't see a downside to taking a big freaking swing now when you basically gave up picks that have an extremely low shot of conveying anything of value. Plus, Ishbia is a mover and shaker as we have all seen already. It wasn't too long ago before the last two acquisitions of Beal and Gordon that many here thought the Suns hands were tied and there isn't much we can do to improve the team.

 

[Yuma]

With the pick swaps, regardless of our play, the Suns will pick towards the end of the 1st round.

I hope there is a major investment in scouting and development, we’re going to require some alchemy.

Odds are pretty high that we’re going to give out a premium pick or 2 at the end of the decade.

It's still unknown if our team being over the second apron makes those picks number 30 by default?

 

[Phrazbit]

It's still unknown if our team being over the second apron makes those picks number 30 by default?

Pretty sure as long as the pick isn't going to us, it will convey at it's "earned" spot.

 

[Yuma]

Pretty sure as long as the pick isn't going to us, it will convey at it's "earned" spot.

It will be way down there anyway. But even watching NBA contract gurus, I noticed they avoid this topic. I don't think anyone really knows yet, so we will know for sure when our first pick by the Nets happens.

 

[Ronin]

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[Ronin]

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[Hoop Head]

This is awesome. This is what it's like to have a real basketball junky as the owner. I love it. Of course he's speaking as the owner but his fandom shines through. I'm sure he watched the Seven Seconds or Less Suns and saw how it helped change the NBA from the plodding post game it was. Changing the whole ROH though is cool and will help better display what everyone in there did for the franchise.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Pretty sure as long as the pick isn't going to us, it will convey at it's "earned" spot.

Really. I doubt that but I haven't read the new rules.

 

[Phrazbit]

Really. I doubt that but I haven't read the new rules.

I am like... 99.9% certain, it would make absolutely zero sense and it would be extremely unfair to the team who traded for the pick.

The rule is there to punish teams for being way over the cap, dumping the value of picks they don't own only rewards the behavior.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I am like... 99.9% certain, it would make absolutely zero sense and it would be extremely unfair to the team who traded for the pick.

The rule is there to punish teams for being way over the cap, dumping the value of picks they don't own only rewards the behavior.

I guess it does not matter what either of us thinks. What matters is what it says.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I am like... 99.9% certain, it would make absolutely zero sense and it would be extremely unfair to the team who traded for the pick.

The rule is there to punish teams for being way over the cap, dumping the value of picks they don't own only rewards the behavior.

I don't know, I think you can apply similar reasoning and come down on the other side of this. If a team can go way over the cap yet still get full trade value for their picks, that seems to fly in the face of what the league is trying to accomplish. And yes, it doesn't make any sense to punish the other team but there seems to be some weakness in this plan. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Phrazbit]

I don't know, I think you can apply similar reasoning and come down on the other side of this. If a team can go way over the cap yet still get full trade value for their picks, that seems to fly in the face of what the league is trying to accomplish. And yes, it doesn't make any sense to punish the other team but there seems to be some weakness in this plan. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I believe if you're in that situation you can't trade your picks anymore in the first place.

Anything traded prior to the rule I cannot imagine will be subjected to it.

 

[Hoop Head]

I believe if you're in that situation you can't trade your picks anymore in the first place.

Anything traded prior to the rule I cannot imagine will be subjected to it.

This is how I understood it.

 

[Mainstreet]

Anything traded prior to the rule I cannot imagine will be subjected to it.

This is how I understood it.

I can't imagine an NBA rule being enforced retroactively for another team prior to the rule change, either.

I expect the Suns to exceed the second tax apron three out of the next five seasons. However, I believe it would only apply to a draft pick the Suns kept under those rules.

This is from The Sporting News by Stephen Noh, 06-30-2023:

A team's first-round pick is moved to the end of the first round if they remain in the second apron for three out of five seasons

NBA's second apron, explained: How latest collective bargaining agreement impacts salary cap, team spending | Sporting News

The NBA's new CBA introduces a second apron for big spenders, with harsh penalties for going over a certain amount. An explanation of the figures and penalties involved.

www.sportingnews.com

 

[Yuma]

Th

I can't imagine an NBA rule being enforced retroactively for another team prior to the rule change, either.

I expect the Suns to exceed the second tax apron three out of the next five seasons. However, I believe it would only apply to a draft pick the Suns kept under those rules.

This is from The Sporting News by Stephen Noh, 06-30-2023:

NBA's second apron, explained: How latest collective bargaining agreement impacts salary cap, team spending | Sporting News

The NBA's new CBA introduces a second apron for big spenders, with harsh penalties for going over a certain amount. An explanation of the figures and penalties involved.

www.sportingnews.com

That's why I have been saying, they haven't ironed these things out yet. The Durant picks would seemingly be unaffected since they were made prior to the new CBA. But since then, they keep saying your number ones move down to the end of the first round. So if we trade our number one on draft night of this season, it should be at number 30.

If the Suns win the NBA Championship those picks will be at 30 anyway. If they go deep in the playoffs, those picks will be down in the low twenties anyway. The picks may or may not help Nets at all if they use them. Maybe if they reconvey them in trades it may help. Those second rounders we gave up will be practically useless. They ones we got back could arguably be better than the ones we gave out.

 

[Hoop Head]

Th

That's why I have been saying, they haven't ironed these things out yet. The Durant picks would seemingly be unaffected since they were made prior to the new CBA. But since then, they keep saying your number ones move down to the end of the first round. So if we trade our number one on draft night of this season, it should be at number 30.

If the Suns win the NBA Championship those picks will be at 30 anyway. If they go deep in the playoffs, those picks will be down in the low twenties anyway. The picks may or may not help Nets at all if they use them. Maybe if they reconvey them in trades it may help. Those second rounders we gave up will be practically useless. They ones we got back could arguably be better than the ones we gave out.

Picks aren't determined by playoff results. The #30 pick goes to the team with the best record in the league not the NBA Champion. Say Miami won it last year, they still would have had a pick in the teens because they were a play in team.