Spurs fan here....
As much as Shaq was brought in to match up with Duncan, I think the Spurs are going to have an advantage on the perimeter with Marion gone. He really did a nice job on Parker last year. Bell is your best perimeter defender, but he can only guard Ginobili or Parker, and he's probably going to be locked on Manu most of the time. Who is going to guard Parker? Hill did a nice job on him in the last game, but I just don't see it happening consistently over a 7 game series. I think the Spurs are going to play pick and roll with Parker and Duncan all day long and make Shaq come out of the paint. If Paker is consistently making his jumpshot and Phoenix can't slide under the pick, then the Spurs are going to be tough to beat.
a big difference with shaq though is that our perimeter defenders no longer have to double down. we cover timmy one-on-one with shaq now. that allows all of other perimeter defenders to stay home more. nash always had one foot towards help post defense. now i'm not arguing that nash is a good defender, but he'll be incrementally better than in the past, and that's shown up in the past few games. also, nash can play up on parker's jumper more knowing that parker doesn't have a free path to the basket with shaq back there taking up space as much as blocking shots.
and you can look at my posts from last year to see that i wasn't a big fan of marion's perimeter defense on points. i thought it a gimmick that worked on sam cassell and no one else. so i see it as a gain that he won't be guarding parker.
finally in regards to grant hill, if you'll note, dantoni didn't have him guard parker the whole game, but rather more in the 4th quarter. thus he was kept fresh for the most of the game guarding a sedentary bowen and could really focus his defensive effort on parker in the 4th where the suns pulled away in both of the last two games against the spurs. i'm sure that dantoni will do the same in this series. in fact, we're lucky that you don't really have a premier scoring threat at the 3 as it will allow hill to rest and play the passing lanes on defense, conserving energy for the offensive end of the court and pressing parker in the 4th. also, i like hill on parker more than marion b/c marion relied so much on his athleticism that if you faked him, you could take advantage of him. hill relies more on length, guile, and savvy. he doesn't get pump faked into the air as did marion. he just recognizes his 8 inch height advantage over tony and stays put.
shaq ended up helping our defense more than anyone could have imagined b/c it allowed all of our players to defend the right guy rather than struggling with mismatches. if anything, we are now the team that imposes the mismatch rather than reacting to it.
now if parker is hitting his J consistently, yeah, we'll struggle, but in the past he's beaten us with layups. i'll take my chances with his inconsistent J verses layups. you won't be seeing the same suns team that you've faced in playoffs prior. whereas we really have the book on your spurs (for all the good that's done us in the past).
