Pac 10 to invite half of Big 12 to join?

[Russ Smith]

I read something today that implied the Kansas legislature is pressuring the Pac 10 to take K State? Baylor has Kenneth Starr(yes that Kenneth Starr) lobbying for them to get into the Pac 10.

I'm old enough to remember one of the big complaints when the Pac 8 was expanding is the concern that ASU and UA didn't fit the "academic profile" of the rest of the conference. Obviously not every team in the Pac 8 was Stanford but there was legit concern it would cause the rest of the conference to lower standards to recruit against the Arizona schools. I don't think that happened but I would expect the same argument to come up again if this expansion comes forward.

It's all about money in the end, the Pac 10 can live with Texas declaring half their team learning disabled(exaggerating for effect), and they can probably live with taking in teams that are currently under NCAA scrutiny because in the end they think they will make a lot more money.

 

[devilalum]

I read something today that implied the Kansas legislature is pressuring the Pac 10 to take K State? Baylor has Kenneth Starr(yes that Kenneth Starr) lobbying for them to get into the Pac 10.

I'm old enough to remember one of the big complaints when the Pac 8 was expanding is the concern that ASU and UA didn't fit the "academic profile" of the rest of the conference. Obviously not every team in the Pac 8 was Stanford but there was legit concern it would cause the rest of the conference to lower standards to recruit against the Arizona schools. I don't think that happened but I would expect the same argument to come up again if this expansion comes forward.

It's all about money in the end, the Pac 10 can live with Texas declaring half their team learning disabled(exaggerating for effect), and they can probably live with taking in teams that are currently under NCAA scrutiny because in the end they think they will make a lot more money.

I've followed ASU all my life and I can tell you that joining the Pac10 raised the Sun Devils standards. Kush used to recruit guys that nobody else would touch. There are stories of players that couldn't even read. I don't think a merger will have the same effect on the Texas schools but who cares. College football players are mercenaries anyway. Most of them are majoring in football and all this garbage about the student athlete is a joke.

Yeah I know, I've seen all the commercials about the doctor/lawyer student athletes but those kids aren't the ones bringing in the cash. The truth is that at all but a few elite academic schools the gang bangers and "Learning Disabled" student athletes pay for all those tetherball scholarships.

 

[Russ Smith]

I've followed ASU all my life and I can tell you that joining the Pac10 raised the Sun Devils standards. Kush used to recruit guys that nobody else would touch. There are stories of players that couldn't even read. I don't think a merger will have the same effect on the Texas schools but who cares. College football players are mercenaries anyway. Most of them are majoring in football and all this garbage about the student athlete is a joke.

Yeah I know, I've seen all the commercials about the doctor/lawyer student athletes but those kids aren't the ones bringing in the cash. The truth is that at all but a few elite academic schools the gang bangers and "Learning Disabled" student athletes pay for all those tetherball scholarships.

Oh I agree I'm just saying the last time the conference expanded that was one of the big objections to it. I don't think it actually happened I think both ASU and UA raised their standards. and it's not like the whole Pac 8 was Stanford then there were schools who had lower standards and there still are today, look at USC for example.

It's all about money in the end.

 

[boisesuns]

No invite for Boise State....just broke. Probably too much confusion with all the other conference stuff.

They won't get to count Boise's record towards potential BCS status if they don't add them by July first.

 

[Dback Jon]

No invite for Boise State....just broke. Probably too much confusion with all the other conference stuff.

They won't get to count Boise's record towards potential BCS status if they don't add them by July first.

A lot can change in three weeks.

 

[boisesuns]

A lot can change in three weeks.

Yep. Hope our status improves because the WAC sucks.

I've heard maybe the rest of the big 12 might become a new mountain 16 type.

 

[Zeno]

Another good thing that would come of it is that its a good bet that the conference championship game would be held regularly in UofPhx stadium. The SEC always has theirs in the Georgia dome and California doesn't have a stadium anywhere close to as nice. I could see a rotation between the new Cowboys Stadium and UofPhx Stadium..thats more revenue for the state and namely the west valley.

 

[Southpaw]

I just wonder how the Big 12 became the target for raiding. I have thought, for awhile, that the Big 12 was over rated , to some extent, but are conferences going after them for their rabid fans and $$$$ or do these conferences think they will add to their conference competitiveness? What is the demise of the Big 12 all about and how does it get chopped apart so easily, if this happens?

I imagine it is all about conference networks coming onto the scene. The Big 11 has their own and it looks like The Pac 16 and SEC are cranking their own up. Will this shake up or restructure the BCS?

 

[Lefty]

Baylor??? Of course Texas senators want their ******** brother included in the mix. So what? Colorado makes more sense geographically and financially.

Plus, Colorado is an AAU school and Baylor is not but they can say ASU, Washington State and Oregon State are not AAU schools from the Pac-10.

 

[arthurracoon]

I just wonder how the Big 12 became the target for raiding. I have thought, for awhile, that the Big 12 was over rated , to some extent, but are conferences going after them for their rabid fans and $$$$ or do these conferences think they will add to their conference competitiveness? What is the demise of the Big 12 all about and how does it get chopped apart so easily, if this happens?

I imagine it is all about conference networks coming onto the scene. The Big 11 has their own and it looks like The Pac 16 and SEC are cranking their own up. Will this shake up or restructure the BCS?

Here's an interesting article:

Big 12 blew it by eschewing playoff
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=dw-expansion060610

"Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe all but killed his own conference on April 30, 2008.

That’s when he decided to team up with the Big Ten and Pac-10 to reject a four-team playoff being pushed by the SEC and ACC. If the Big 12 (and/or the Big East) had supported it, the so-called “Plus One” model likely would’ve happened.

Even that modest playoff would have meant hundreds of millions of additional revenue for college athletics. It would have then allowed for easy expansion for an even more lucrative 16-team postseason. That would have solved all the monetary concerns that have left the Big 12 on the verge of collapse at the hands of its one-time allies, the Big Ten and Pac-10.

..."

 

[Southpaw]

Aha. Maybe all of this will eventually lead to a playoff champion.

 

[NMCard]

Apparently we will know today is Boise State has been invited to the Mountain West. If these PAC 10 rumors are true, I too wonder what that means for the rest of the big 12, and Boise state if they jump ship and join the mountain west, only to possibly see the better teams in that conference leave!

The Mountain West decided not to invite BS until they see what the PAC and Big 12 do.

 

[azsportsfan01]

The Mountain West decided not to invite BS until they see what the PAC and Big 12 do.

It is smart of them. If the Big 12 implodes then they could add K-State, Kansas, Iowa St, and Baylor/Colorado. That would be much better than just adding Boise St.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Can we please stop the Boise State nonsense? Nobody wants them and with good reason. They're essentially non-existent at everything other than football and they've only been on the radar less than 10 years with that program. The academics suck and they produce little in the way of revenue or a TV market.

If the Pac-10 wanted to add one-trick ponies to their conference they would've added Gonzaga and UNLV Basketball over the last twenty years. It's not happening. And the MWC is smart to wait on Boise when Colorado and the Kansas schools might be hitting the open market in the next week or two.

Boise has been a nice story for the last several years but like so many programs before them they have no staying power. No major school president wants to share revenues with such a university.

 

[HooverDam]

So if the Pac 10 does invite (and the invitations are accepted) the 6 big 12 teams, I wonder if we could see the dominos fall like so:

"Pac 16"
West Division..................East Division
Washington..............................Arizona
Wazzu.....................................ASU
Oregon State............................CU
Oregon....................................TT
Cal..........................................TAMU
Stanford...................................UT
USC.........................................OU
UCLA.......................................Okie St

Then the Big 10 isn't going to want to be left out, so Id see them trying to poach a few of the better remaining Big 12 schools:

"Big 16"
West Division...................East Division
K-State.....................................N'Western
Kansas......................................Purdue
Nebraska...................................Indiana
Mizzou......................................Notre Dame
Iowa.........................................Ohio State
Minnesota..................................Michigan
Illinois.......................................Michigan State
Wisconsin..................................Penn State

at that point the SEC would likely feel marginalized and will want to compete and join the super conference parade. So I see them trying to pick off some ACC schools that are in states the SEC already has a presence in:

SEC
West Division..................East Division
Arkansas..................................Florida
Ole Miss...................................Kentucky
Miss St.....................................UGA
LSU..........................................S. Carolina
Bama........................................Clemson
Auburn......................................GaTech
Vandy.......................................Miami
Tennessee.................................Florida St

Then it would seem natural for the Big East & ACC to try to merge in order to stay relevant:

"Big Atlantic"
South Division..................North Division
NC State....................................Connecticut
Duke.........................................Rutgers
Wake Forest...............................Pitt
UNC..........................................Cincinnati
Virginia......................................Louisville
VaTech......................................Maryland
South Florida..............................Boston College
West Virginia.............................Syracuse

Now with Baylor and Iowa State being left out, and the WAC and Mnt West not wanting to be further marginalized, I could see a secondary Western US super conference:

"New WAC" (or whatever you want to call it)
West Division...............East Division
Boise St....................................Iowa St
Hawai'i.....................................Baylor
Fresno St..................................TCU
UNLV........................................Houston
Nevada.....................................Colorado St
Utah.........................................Air Force
BYU..........................................New Mexico
Utah St.....................................NMSU

So with 5 large conferences you'd of course have to slightly rework the major bowl tie ins:
Rose: Pac 16 v Big 16
Sugar: SEC v At large
Fiesta: WAC v At Large
Orange: "Big Atlantic" v At large

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

I don't think the new WAC would get an automatic invite. None of those universities have enough clout. This is a prelude to some sort of playoff system I think so whoever emerges from those mid-majors would have a shot anyways.

Also, don't discount the theory that these sixteen team conferences might be broke down into separate four team divisions. In which case you'd add the revenue of two semifinal games to the major conference championship.

Division I
UW, WSU, OU, OSU

Division II
Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC

Division III
ASU
UA
CU
TTU

Division IV
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

I think there would be some programs opposed to having to go against seven teams just to earn the right to play in a championship game. Not only that but if we're assuming this hypothetical Pac-16 goes through there will only be an eight game conference schedule which means we'd only play our old conference mates once every eight years. Nobody wants that, every team will want to travel to SoCal and Texas at least every other year. That recruiting week leading up to those road games are huge for coaches.

 

[Renz]

I just wonder how the Big 12 became the target for raiding. I have thought, for awhile, that the Big 12 was over rated , to some extent, but are conferences going after them for their rabid fans and $$$$ or do these conferences think they will add to their conference competitiveness?

Adding Texas and Texas A&M would basically deliver the Dallas, Austin and Houston TV markets to the PAC-10. That's big bucks when the PAC is negotiating it's new TV deal, and $ is what this is all about.

What is the demise of the Big 12 all about and how does it get chopped apart so easily, if this happens?

The biggest reason that this is happening to the Big 12 is that it has only been around since 1996 so there's no real loyalty to the conference like there might be in older conferences like the PAC-10, Big 10 or SEC. But again, it's all about who gives Texas the best deal.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Adding Texas and Texas A&M would basically deliver the Dallas, Austin and Houston TV markets to the PAC-10. That's big bucks when the PAC is negotiating it's new TV deal, and $ is what this is all about.

Agreed, the Pac wants Texas and Oklahoma schools. But at worst we get the SLC and Denver markets if Plan B (CU and Utah, both of whom want in) occurs due to something unforeseen screwing up the Texas deal. CU to the Pac looks like a done deal from all reports, whether they're joined by their five old Big 12 mates or Utah is the only question.

The biggest reason that this is happening to the Big 12 is that it has only been around since 1996 so there's no real loyalty to the conference like there might be in older conferences like the PAC-10, Big 10 or SEC. But again, it's all about who gives Texas the best deal.

A&M and UT have what's being referred to on the internet as the "Tech Problem" in that the State Legislature has some pro-TTU people who won't allow one school to go anywhere without all three being included. The Pac-10 is the only one willing to accept Tech which is why they're leading.

If UT and A&M could separate themselves from Texas Tech they'd likely already be gone to the Big 10.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

On another note - this is going to be a huge economic boon for the AZ schools.

 

[HooverDam]

I don't think the new WAC would get an automatic invite. None of those universities have enough clout.

Yah Im not sure if they'd get one either. But those schools have improved a lot in football in recent years and some of them, Boise St, Utah, BYU, etc have been just as strong as a lot of schools in BCS conferences so they could certainly make a case.

Not only that but if we're assuming this hypothetical Pac-16 goes through there will only be an eight game conference schedule which means we'd only play our old conference mates once every eight years. Nobody wants that, every team will want to travel to SoCal and Texas at least every other year. That recruiting week leading up to those road games are huge for coaches.

I wasn't assuming an 8 game conference schedule. I figured you'd play the 7 other teams in your division plus at least 3 in the other division, leaving 2 OoC games (which would almost assuredly be uber cupcakes).

Though I hadn't thought of your 4 team subdivision idea, that would be interesting. Plus I feel like the Arizona schools would likely be on top in most sports across the board against TTU and CU most years. So get ready for those "Pac 10 Southwest Division Champions" banners I guess.

However, would Tech allow themselves to be separated from the other Texas schools? There would have to be some kind of system like the SEC has where each school has a guaranteed rival from another division that they always play & I imagine Tech would want to play both Texas schools each year. The again, if you guarantee Tech gets to play UT every year that limits other schools chances at that big time game. And who are schools UA and ASUs other 'natural' non division opponents? The Oregon schools?

How were you imagining the 4 team subdivision scheduling would work? You play all 3 from your division and then 2 from each of the others (3+2+2+2=9 conf games)?

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Yah Im not sure if they'd get one either. But those schools have improved a lot in football in recent years and some of them, Boise St, Utah, BYU, etc have been just as strong as a lot of schools in BCS conferences so they could certainly make a case.

They'd get at-large berths when they deserve it, but the good old biys won't give them an auto invite. Same system as now likely.

I wasn't assuming an 8 game conference schedule. I figured you'd play the 7 other teams in your division plus at least 3 in the other division, leaving 2 OoC games (which would almost assuredly be uber cupcakes).

That will never happen. The most conference games I can see is nine, where they'd play their 3 division foes and two from the others. Eight conference games would require some round robin thing I can't even speculate about.

Though I hadn't thought of your 4 team subdivision idea, that would be interesting. Plus I feel like the Arizona schools would likely be on top in most sports across the board against TTU and CU most years. So get ready for those "Pac 10 Southwest Division Champions" banners I guess.

I think the division thing would only apply in football, basketball would play out like the Big East where the Tournament would become a huge event. Also keep in mind, Colorado is the only school in this hypothetical division to win a national title and Texas Tech has been the best program over the last decade. Assuming Arizona school domination over them is largely wishful thinking.

However, would Tech allow themselves to be separated from the other Texas schools? There would have to be some kind of system like the SEC has where each school has a guaranteed rival from another division that they always play & I imagine Tech would want to play both Texas schools each year. The again, if you guarantee Tech gets to play UT every year that limits other schools chances at that big time game. And who are schools UA and ASUs other 'natural' non division opponents? The Oregon schools?

Tech has no pull in this. They'll go where UT tells them to or get stuck with Baylor in the WAC.

 

[HooverDam]

Also keep in mind, Colorado is the only school in this hypothetical division to win a national title and Texas Tech has been the best program over the last decade. Assuming Arizona school domination over them is largely wishful thinking.

Titles aren't the only measure of success. Are the Bucks a historically superior franchise to the Suns because they have more titles? I wouldn't say they are.

All time winning percentages:
ASU 60.9%
CU 59.1%
UA 55.7%
TT 54.4%

My point was more about across the board sports. UA is the best basketball program of the 4 and ASU is probably second. ASU would be the strongest in baseball, UA and ASU would dominate in softball, ASU would be far ahead in track, etc. I know you don't care about any collegiate sports other than Hoops and football but that was what I was getting at.

 

[boisesuns]

Can we please stop the Boise State nonsense? Nobody wants them and with good reason. They're essentially non-existent at everything other than football and they've only been on the radar less than 10 years with that program. The academics suck and they produce little in the way of revenue or a TV market.

If the Pac-10 wanted to add one-trick ponies to their conference they would've added Gonzaga and UNLV Basketball over the last twenty years. It's not happening. And the MWC is smart to wait on Boise when Colorado and the Kansas schools might be hitting the open market in the next week or two.

Boise has been a nice story for the last several years but like so many programs before them they have no staying power. No major school president wants to share revenues with such a university.

Considering they went to D1 in 1996, i'd say they are doing ok for themselves. No matter the conference, I think they will have plenty of staying power..... They've outgrown the WAC in football, and have won 90% of their non conference games against MWC teams, and will start this season in the top 5.

The other sports are decent (Actually PAC 10 in wrestling) but they do need to step it up. (Especially mens BBALL).

Some of the issues you talked about with revenue and TV market are pretty key. Much of the success of the program and market comes from ESPN exposure (5-6 games per year on tv). Going to the mountain west makes sense football wise, but they have a terrible TV deal. Boise games have done pretty well nationally, but in a world all about $$ and revenue, it makes it tough.

I'm interested to see where they land after all this shakeup.

 

[Gaddabout]

A couple of things:

- All of this hinges on Notre Dame. They have a standing offer from the Big 10+1. Notre Dame fans overwhelmingly want to remain independent, but if the move is to mega conferences, this puts a crimp in how much money Notre Dame can take in revenue as an independent. However, they won't share with 15 other teams. If they accept the Big 10's offer, it will be because they will be the only team invited. If Notre Dame joins the Big 10, the Big 12 likely stands the way it is for another six years.

- The Big 12 has given Nebraska an ultimatum to show their loyalty by Friday. Or else. Or else what, I have no clue, because Nebraska has the power and they're waiting on Notre Dame to make a decision. If Notre Dame declines, Nebraska bolts for the Big 10, takes Missouri with them, and the dominoes start falling with six Big 12 teams likely joining the Pac-10.

- If you're really fascinated by all this, see if you can track where Kevin Weiberg flies. He's the No. 2 Pac-10 guy and the former Big 12 commissioner who's engineered all of this. When Larry Scott says he hasn't spoken to anyone in the Big 12, it's because he's been having Weiberg prime the pump for him. Plausible deniability, and Weiberg was beloved in the Big 12 by all but the Iowa States of the conference.

- One major hitch to the proposed Pac-16, IMO, will be how TV revenue is shared. Texas gets to keep its TV revenue right now. It's the only uneven sharing in the Big 12, but it's a big one. The Pac-10 shares it's revenue evenly no matter who gets the television appearances. I have to wonder how Texas will receive this, though the current estimates of a Pac-16 contract would bring in $20 mil per school per year. That's more than double what Texas is getting right now with uneven sharing. So maybe they won't be so principled about it.

 

[Dback Jon]

I think Nebraska and Missouri leave for the Big 10, regardless of what Notre Dame does. Too much money for them in the Big 10. And the Big 12 has nothing to hold them.