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It is no secret the Packers receivers struggled against man coverage in 2024, especially when Christian Watson was out of the lineup.
To put some numbers to the problem at hand, Watson's career average of 2.8 yards per route run (Y/RR) against man coverage is more than double the next best mark on the team (Dontayvion Wicks 1.39, Jayden Reed 1.34, Romeo Doubs 1.08).
It is worth noting however that although Wicks and Reed struggled to beat man coverage in 2024, they were above average at it as rookies, ranking 39th and 43rd out of 91 receivers with at least 22 targets. Reed's 1.76 Y/RR against man in 2023 was actually slightly better than Watson's 1.75, although that represented Watson's career low.
This suggests performance against man coverage can be somewhat volatile, and there is no reason the players already on the roster cannot improve in 2025 and beyond.
But with Watson set to miss a decent portion of the 2025 season after suffering a serious knee injury in last year's regular-season finale, and the free agency pool bone dry, Green Bay is likely to turn to the draft to add a skillset to the room which complements their other young wideouts.
So which receivers in the 2025 NFL Draft are the best at beating man coverage? Over the last two seasons, here are the top 10 draft-eligible receivers in Y/RR against man coverage, who also fit what the Packers generally like at the position in terms of size, athleticism and production:
By using the percentage of a player's targets which came against man coverage to weight these numbers, giving credit to those who have faced man coverage more often, the top 10 of man-beaters becomes:
Emeka Egbuka of Ohio State and Elic Ayomanor of Stanford were just outside the top 10 both for Y/RR and weighted Y/RR.
Luther Burden is a slot receiver, so he may not be of interest to the Packers, as they have that position covered in the form of Jayden Reed. They are also very unlikely to be able to land McMillan barring a huge trade-up.
It is worth noting that Harris' Y/RR is being carried by a 10.47 figure in 2024, which was on just 19 targets against man coverage, and may be artificially bloated by the simplistic offense run at Ole Miss. However, he still put up 3.4 Y/RR in 2023, which was only bettered by McMillan on the list above.
While the perception from the outside is that the Packers need to address their problem with beating man coverage by adding another receiver to the mix, the team may not feel the same way. But if they do, the 13 players discussed are the most likely candidates to be drafted by Green Bay.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers draft prospects: 13 wide receivers who can beat man coverage
Continue reading...
To put some numbers to the problem at hand, Watson's career average of 2.8 yards per route run (Y/RR) against man coverage is more than double the next best mark on the team (Dontayvion Wicks 1.39, Jayden Reed 1.34, Romeo Doubs 1.08).
It is worth noting however that although Wicks and Reed struggled to beat man coverage in 2024, they were above average at it as rookies, ranking 39th and 43rd out of 91 receivers with at least 22 targets. Reed's 1.76 Y/RR against man in 2023 was actually slightly better than Watson's 1.75, although that represented Watson's career low.
This suggests performance against man coverage can be somewhat volatile, and there is no reason the players already on the roster cannot improve in 2025 and beyond.
But with Watson set to miss a decent portion of the 2025 season after suffering a serious knee injury in last year's regular-season finale, and the free agency pool bone dry, Green Bay is likely to turn to the draft to add a skillset to the room which complements their other young wideouts.
So which receivers in the 2025 NFL Draft are the best at beating man coverage? Over the last two seasons, here are the top 10 draft-eligible receivers in Y/RR against man coverage, who also fit what the Packers generally like at the position in terms of size, athleticism and production:
- Tre Harris - Ole Miss - 6.94
- Tetairoa McMillan - Arizona - 3.72
- Tory Horton - Colorado State - 3.18
- Luther Burden - Missouri - 3.15
- Jalen Royals - Utah State - 2.93
- Jayden Higgins - Iowa State - 2.81
- Nick Nash - San Jose State - 2.49
- Roc Taylor - Memphis - 2.44
- Ja'Corey Brooks - Louisville - 2.43
- Pat Bryant - Illinois - 2.39
By using the percentage of a player's targets which came against man coverage to weight these numbers, giving credit to those who have faced man coverage more often, the top 10 of man-beaters becomes:
- Tre Harris - Ole Miss
- Tetairoa McMillan - Arizona
- Jalen Royals - Utah State
- Nick Nash - San Jose State
- Luther Burden - Missouri
- Pat Bryant - Illinois
- Jayden Higgins - Iowa State
- Tory Horton - Colorado State
- Andrew Armstrong - Arkansas
- Roc Taylor - Memphis
Emeka Egbuka of Ohio State and Elic Ayomanor of Stanford were just outside the top 10 both for Y/RR and weighted Y/RR.
Luther Burden is a slot receiver, so he may not be of interest to the Packers, as they have that position covered in the form of Jayden Reed. They are also very unlikely to be able to land McMillan barring a huge trade-up.
It is worth noting that Harris' Y/RR is being carried by a 10.47 figure in 2024, which was on just 19 targets against man coverage, and may be artificially bloated by the simplistic offense run at Ole Miss. However, he still put up 3.4 Y/RR in 2023, which was only bettered by McMillan on the list above.
While the perception from the outside is that the Packers need to address their problem with beating man coverage by adding another receiver to the mix, the team may not feel the same way. But if they do, the 13 players discussed are the most likely candidates to be drafted by Green Bay.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers draft prospects: 13 wide receivers who can beat man coverage
Continue reading...
