Pick Watch 2018

[Raindog]

3.5

Sounds good to me... if we stay under that, I can't see us finishing any better than second worst record.

 

[JCSunsfan]

If we could end up with a top 3 pick and then #15 and #16 plus the first pick of the second round, I wonder what just those three picks could get us moving up.

15, 16, 31 for what? 8 or 9? It would be interesting to see whether you have as much of a chance of getting an one all-star with three pick that are later or one earlier. At least someone would get three shots at it.

 

[pokerface]

If we could end up with a top 3 pick and then #15 and #16 plus the first pick of the second round, I wonder what just those three picks could get us moving up.

15, 16, 31 for what? 8 or 9? It would be interesting to see whether you have as much of a chance of getting an one all-star with three pick that are later or one earlier. At least someone would get three shots at it.

That's an interesting question. #8 or 9 sounds about right. I guess it depends on who our trading partner is targeting. We have an interesting mix of picks...but of players too. What I mean by that is would some of those picks be used to package up with someone we're shipping out? Those picks can be used in a variety of ways. It will be interesting to see how it pans out in the offseason. I expect a major shakeup via the draft or trades.

 

[Hoop Head]

If we could end up with a top 3 pick and then #15 and #16 plus the first pick of the second round, I wonder what just those three picks could get us moving up.

15, 16, 31 for what? 8 or 9? It would be interesting to see whether you have as much of a chance of getting an one all-star with three pick that are later or one earlier. At least someone would get three shots at it.

If we get 15 and 16 maybe it's best to keep them since McD has drafted the best with the selections he's made in the teens.

 

[pokerface]

If we get 15 and 16 maybe it's best to keep them since McD has drafted the best with the selections he's made in the teens.

Well we better start shipping some guys out. Add a top 5 pick with 15 and 16....then we have our second rounder which will be high. Probably ship Ulis...and Chriss??

 

[BillsCarnage]

Well. We are in the #1 position. The Miami pick is 15 and will likely remain there based upon how Detroit is playing. The Milwaukee pick is half a game from transferring.

Interestingly, having the worst record works against a team, historically. This is through 2013, but having the 2nd or 3rd worst record (even 5th) has more 'luck' at getting the #1 pick.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/21/4348616/nba-draft-lottery-history-derrick-rose-lebron-james

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Interestingly, having the worst record works against a team, historically. This is through 2013, but having the 2nd or 3rd worst record (even 5th) has more 'luck' at getting the #1 pick.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/21/4348616/nba-draft-lottery-history-derrick-rose-lebron-james

This is faulty reasoning. The team with the best percentage opportunity has the best percentage opportunity, period. When luck is a large factor past outcomes have zero validity in providing future probability.

 

[leclerc]

Well we better start shipping some guys out. Add a top 5 pick with 15 and 16....then we have our second rounder which will be high. Probably ship Ulis...and Chriss??

I'd better start looking for a new avatar.

 

[Mainstreet]

If we get 15 and 16 maybe it's best to keep them since McD has drafted the best with the selections he's made in the teens.

My thoughts. LOL

 

[Mainstreet]

Well we better start shipping some guys out. Add a top 5 pick with 15 and 16....then we have our second rounder which will be high. Probably ship Ulis...and Chriss??

As I view it, the Suns have a lot of dead wood on their roster. Let's use some of those players in a trade. I am not necessarily talking about Chriss.

Chandler, Knight, Dudley, Williams, Reed and Ulis are players the Suns could move. Knight might be a buyout option. Len's contract will expire at the end of the season.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'd better start looking for a new avatar.

Your avatar is cool.

It wouldn't hurt to have one on the back burner though.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/...e-phoenix-suns-warren-ennis-bogdanovich-brown

Well with 14,18 and 27 in 2014, the Suns were unable to move up in the draft. This draft is top heavy as well, I dont see teams trading down for Multipicks, falling out of the impact player range

The Kings with Malik Monk still available traded 10 for 15 and 20, so it it is possible.

Suns took 13 and Bogdonavic to move to 8 to grab Chriss.

So it looks like 14 and 15 could move you up to the 9 ish spot in the draft to move up.

Draft trade history move up in the top 5, it took 6 and 27 and a future 1st for jazz to move up and get Portlands 3rd.

Looking at all major draft trades that landed in the top 5 it was always a swap of picks with in one anothers range and for a player.

So in a reality if the Suns fall to pick 3 etc; they could package additional picks to move up a spot or 2 or to really move up in the draft, package Warren or Jackson, 14 and 15 and you could get to 5-7 spot. But when looking at what it costs to move up, it will cost alot more than 14 and 15.

Ranking 20 Most Significant Draft-Day Trades & Swaps | Orlando Magic
http://www.nba.com/magic/gallery/cohen-8ball-ranking-20-most-significant-draft-day-trades-swaps

 

[JCSunsfan]

This is faulty reasoning. The team with the best percentage opportunity has the best percentage opportunity, period. When luck is a large factor past outcomes have zero validity in providing future probability.

We all know this. Its just anecdotal results. But having the best odds is still just odds. Even if we have the best odds, its only like a 25% chance of the top pick. In fact, the greatest odds for an individual pick would still be the fourth pick (35%).

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

What is going on with the Pacers? They are going to lose back-to-back games against the Mavs and the Hawks.

I feel like I should send them a gift basket or something...

 

[Hoop Head]

What is going on with the Pacers? They are going to lose back-to-back games against the Mavs and the Hawks.

I feel like I should send them a gift basket or something...

They've come back down to earth after a great start. They benefitted from teams doubting them. They were projected to be a lottery team after Paul George was traded but the light came on for Oladipo. Now that teams are preparing for them and know what to look for they've come back down to earth. They haven't made the necessary adjustments now that they've been figured out.

 

[pokerface]

Suns dropped three spots with a win over the Grizz.

Booker 39 min
Payton 39 min
Jackson 40 min

Ahh...Run these guys into the ground. We need to avoid a top 6 pick at all costs.

 

[hsandhu]

I penciled in wins over memphis/atlanta, not too worried about it. Suns have a brutal schedule, and all these teams play each other alot coming up. I pretty much gave atlanta/memphis the 2 worst records weeks ago, they are the worst.

Dont want to go lower than 5, pretty much guarantees one of the top 6 big time talents.

At end of next week i have suns at 20 wins, (hopefully we lose to at mia and at cha), other teams at:

chi 22 (they play dal/mem and atlanta in just the next 5 games)
bkn 21
sac 22 (they play bkn, ny and orl in next 5)
dal 21 (they play chicago, mem next 5)
orl 19



And i'm counting on a very easy orlando streak to end the season, for them to eventually pass us:

home suns
home bkn
home chi
at atl
at ny
home dal
home cha

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Meanwhile the mavs effectively gave up a win against the thunder. Sigh.

 

[Raindog]

Meanwhile the mavs effectively gave up a win against the thunder. Sigh.

I smell funny business... someone get the commish on the line!

 

[JCSunsfan]

the Milwaukee pick moved into transfer range tonight.

4, 15, 16.

 

[hcsilla]

If we could end up with a top 3 pick and then #15 and #16 plus the first pick of the second round, I wonder what just those three picks could get us moving up.

15, 16, 31 for what? 8 or 9?

Yes. #14 and #21 did net #9 for the Jazz in the Trey Burke-trade.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

Yes. #14 and #21 did net #9 for the Jazz in the Trey Burke-trade.

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/...e-phoenix-suns-warren-ennis-bogdanovich-brown

Well with 14,18 and 27 in 2014, the Suns were unable to move up in the draft. This draft is top heavy as well, I dont see teams trading down for Multipicks, falling out of the impact player range

The Kings with Malik Monk still available traded 10 for 15 and 20, so it it is possible.

Suns took 13 and Bogdonavic to move to 8 to grab Chriss.

So it looks like 14 and 15 could move you up to the 9 ish spot in the draft to move up.

Draft trade history move up in the top 5, it took 6 and 27 and a future 1st for jazz to move up and get Portlands 3rd.

Looking at all major draft trades that landed in the top 5 it was always a swap of picks with in one anothers range and for a player.

So in a reality if the Suns fall to pick 3 etc; they could package additional picks to move up a spot or 2 or to really move up in the draft, package Warren or Jackson, 14 and 15 and you could get to 5-7 spot. But when looking at what it costs to move up, it will cost alot more than 14 and 15.

Ranking 20 Most Significant Draft-Day Trades & Swaps | Orlando Magic
http://www.nba.com/magic/gallery/cohen-8ball-ranking-20-most-significant-draft-day-trades-swaps

 

[Carolinacacti]

Miami loses. I think the Hornets will catch them.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Thankfully sac pulled out w in OT against nets.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Thankfully sac pulled out w in OT against nets.

The down side is that it means the Nets continue to hang around in the tank standings.