Pick Watch 2018

[Hoop Head]

Pokerface you do realize they do the ping- pong balls behind close doors. Why would the NBA give us the number one pick? I myself have written letters of death to the commish if we don't get the number one pick.

That is why I'm worried about San Antonio missing the playoffs. I do not want to see them with the 13th or 14th best odds at the #1 pick and watch them get it in order to select Ayton to build a team for the next 15 years.

 

[Errntknght]

All the East teams in the tankathon lost tonight - Orlando hasn't officially lost yet but they trail the Spurs by 40 in the 4th. Mavs beat the relentless Knicks... We didn't surprise the Cavs at the start of the game...

 

[pokerface]

Pokerface you do realize they do the ping- pong balls behind close doors. Why would the NBA give us the number one pick? I myself have written letters of death to the commish if we don't get the number one pick.

Honestly I'm afraid of even dreaming of Ayton. If it happens it happens. What I "expect" is a top four pick.

 

[pokerface]

That is why I'm worried about San Antonio missing the playoffs. I do not want to see them with the 13th or 14th best odds at the #1 pick and see them get it in order to select Ayton to build a team for the next 15 years.

You should write horror movies.

 

[Mainstreet]

Honestly I'm afraid of even dreaming of Ayton. If it happens it happens. What I "expect" is a top four pick.

I don't let myself dream about it either. As a Suns fan, I'm always looking at worse case scenario.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I don't let myself dream about it either. As a Suns fan, I'm always looking at worse case scenario.

It’s REALLY hard not to dream.

 

[Mainstreet]

It’s REALLY hard not to dream.

Well dream but don't count on your dreams coming true.

I'm counting on the Suns to get a quality player even if they do not get the #1 pick.

 

[pokerface]

Well dream but don't count on your dreams coming true.

I'm counting on the Suns to get a quality player even if they do not get the #1 pick.

 

[pokerface]

It’s REALLY hard not to dream.

It would be so f'n great...

 

[Hoop Head]

I wonder if Ayton going to U of A effects how he's viewed by Suns fans. Most Suns fans look at him as the best possible player to add to this team in terms of fit, which makes sense, but I think having Arizona connections already weighs in on it some as well because he's not viewed as the consensus #1 pick in this draft by the national media.

 

[pokerface]

I wonder if Ayton going to U of A effects how he's viewed by Suns fans. Most Suns fans look at him as the best possible player to add to this team in terms of fit, which makes sense, but I think having Arizona connections already weighs in on it some as well because he's not viewed as the consensus #1 pick in this draft by the national media.

If we had #2 or #3 pick would or could we trade up to #1?

 

[Hoop Head]

If we had #2 or #3 pick would or could we trade up to #1?

I think that depends on who gets #1 and if they're interested in Doncic over Ayton, if that's the case then I could see them willing to trade down to #2 to select Doncic and also get the #15th or #16th pick from the Suns for doing so. It would definitely cost one of the Heat or Bucks picks but that's more than fair, IMO. If it cost both, I think I'd still do it but I might also want to call them on their bluff. If a team is really after Doncic and has the #1 pick, why worry about trading up to select Ayton since he should still be there at #2? I think at #3 it'll be more necessary to trade up and that could be pricy, I don't think I would do it if involved a future 1st that belongs to us unless it's lottery protected or protected through the top 5 for the next 3 years.

 

[pokerface]

I think that depends on who gets #1 and if they're interested in Doncic over Ayton, if that's the case then I could see them willing to trade down to #2 to select Doncic and also get the #15th or #16th pick from the Suns for doing so. It would definitely cost one of the Heat or Bucks picks but that's more than fair, IMO. If it cost both, I think I'd still do it but I might also want to call them on their bluff. If a team is really after Doncic and has the #1 pick, why worry about trading up to select Ayton since he should still be there at #2? I think at #3 it'll be more necessary to trade up and that could be pricy, I don't think I would do it if involved a future 1st that belongs to us unless it's lottery protected or protected through the top 5 for the next 3 years.

I think your analysis is right on. Just wonder though if it would be easy to determine if #1 pick would really take Doncic first. I guess it depends on which team is involved.

 

[Mainstreet]

I don't think a team with the #1 pick is going to pass on Ayton.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I don't think a team with the #1 pick is going to pass on Ayton.

Me neither. Any talk in the media of Doncic over him is clickbait City, IMO.

 

[pokerface]

Me neither. Any talk in the media of Doncic over him is clickbait City, IMO.

Yeah I'll believe that only when I see it.

 

[Mainstreet]

Me neither. Any talk in the media of Doncic over him is clickbait City, IMO.

We agree. Ayton is close to a franchise player. A team doesn't pass on that.

 

[pokerface]

Orlando's schedule looks soft the rest of the season...

Suns
Nets
Bulls
Hawks
Knicks
Mavs

 

[pokerface]

Orlando's schedule looks soft the rest of the season...

Suns
Nets
Bulls
Hawks
Knicks
Mavs

Kings face...

Hawks
Mavs
Lakers
Suns
Grizz

Nets face...

Philly
Mavs
Grizz
Magic
Bulls (twice)


So we might be able to keep our edge (pace) nicely against those three of our competitors. They have at least a soft (if not softer) schedule than us. However I think the hawks have a tougher schedule than us.


I'm going to project a #3 slot for the Suns just based on schedules and our current game standings. Orlando 'could' drop us to #4...

 

[JCSunsfan]

I am concerned about the Milwaukee pick. It could go to 17.

 

[Errntknght]

Our next 'trap' game is against Detroit next Tuesday. They've been falling like a rock lately - 2-8 in their last 10. They're not in the running for a top 5 pick but they still may have decided to tank. It's a home game for them so that might help.. After them we visit Cleveland and Orlando in back-to-back games. With luck we have an exhausting game against the Cavs and are easy prey for Orlando. After that our sched is hard except for the Kings at home and Dallas @ Dallas.

 

[Hoop Head]

I am concerned about the Milwaukee pick. It could go to 17.

If that happens we won't get it this year, which isn't that bad. It would be nice to have it so they can trade one of the picks, either that pick or the Heat pick, and keep the other but we really don't need need both this year, especially if they can't package them in a trade and select players for themselves. Most thought it wouldn't convey this year when the trade was originally made also, so if it doesn't convey it's not that big of a deal. It's only been in play for the last few weeks with the Bucks being a lot worse than anticipated.

It may hold more value in a trade as a future pick rather than trying to find a team interested in taking both picks.

If the Suns land at #4 and try to trade up for #1 or #2, a package with the Suns #4 pick, the #15 or #16 pick from Miami, and a future pick from the Bucks may be more attractive than the #4, #15, and #16 all this year. Who knows. Not many teams are ready to take on 3 rookies, especially 3 first round picks with all of them being that high also. It's one thing if a late 1st rounder doesn't pan out #28 or #29 but teams selecting in the teens expect to get a player that can actually produce.

 

[pokerface]

Our next 'trap' game is against Detroit next Tuesday. They've been falling like a rock lately - 2-8 in their last 10. They're not in the running for a top 5 pick but they still may have decided to tank. It's a home game for them so that might help.. After them we visit Cleveland and Orlando in back-to-back games. With luck we have an exhausting game against the Cavs and are easy prey for Orlando. After that our sched is hard except for the Kings at home and Dallas @ Dallas.

Interesting

 

[pokerface]

If that happens we won't get it this year, which isn't that bad. It would be nice to have it so they can trade one of the picks, either that pick or the Heat pick, and keep the other but we really don't need need both this year, especially if they can't package them in a trade and select players for themselves. Most thought it wouldn't convey this year when the trade was originally made also, so if it doesn't convey it's not that big of a deal. It's only been in play for the last few weeks with the Bucks being a lot worse than anticipated.

It may hold more value in a trade as a future pick rather than trying to find a team interested in taking both picks.

If the Suns land at #4 and try to trade up for #1 or #2, a package with the Suns #4 pick, the #15 or #16 pick from Miami, and a future pick from the Bucks may be more attractive than the #4, #15, and #16 all this year. Who knows. Not many teams are ready to take on 3 rookies, especially 3 first round picks with all of them being that high also. It's one thing if a late 1st rounder doesn't pan out #28 or #29 but teams selecting in the teens expect to get a player that can actually produce.

Let's say the suns dropped to the #3 or #4... I think they 'could' mount an offer for #1 pick that would be in the ballpark. I mean our own pick even if it were #4 has good value in this top heavy draft. A team needing a center or power forward could still fill that need with quality with our pick and have other draft picks we own...which are numerous. I think some team will take Doncic #2 or #3 which will drop some bigs down.

 

[Phrazbit]

Ayton is as close to a sure fire all-star as can be found in the draft. It is hard to find the superlatives to describe him. Bilas is on the verge of calling him the love child of shaq and Robinson. No freshman big has ever put up these kind of stats, and with such skill. He's a monster, he is going number one unless some terrible gm outthinks themselves and gets really cute.