Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
It’s becoming rapidly clear the Cards will not take a top QB and possibly not get WR Harrison. Nonetheless, this should be an excellent draft. There are several ways to approach this, but the draft is deep enough the Cards should get at least 1 Pro Bowl level player for certain. Then likely a solid key starter with the Texas pick. They would figure to also get a starter with their early 2 and, if they trade down a little with their first pick as I recommended if Harrison is gone, they should get another second early 2. I figure unless they need a pick to move, they’ll make at least 2 third round picks. I prefer scenario 2, but I’m hearing tons of 1 from people who think they know Ossenfort.
Scenario #1.
Pick 1 OT
Quite a few pundits believe the Cards should focus on the trenches, going OT first. There are several to choose amongst. I like Fashanu, others prefer Alt. Both are solid choices with little to separate them. Fashanu is probably the better pass protector, while Alt is better balanced but evenly rated in run/pass. There are also several other tackles with first round grades. None are quite as dominating as these two.
Pick 2 DT
Even if the Cards follow my advise and secure a DT in FA, they’d be wise to grab Newton if he’s still on the board. Sadly he seems to be rising. The scarcity at this position has evaluators putting him as high as top 7, though some don’t have him in round 1. He is a touch undersized, but he plays bigger. He’s effective at stopping the run and and penetrates well to disrupt the passing game. He may have the best motor in college. He’d be a terrific asset in team motivation. If he keeps consistently climbing draft boards, the Cards will need to trade up to get him.
Scenario#2
Pick 1 WR
This is one of the best WR classes in this century. It has everything. Some see that as a reason to wait. I see it as the best WRs in this class are truly elite. They are game changers. If Harrison is there they take him. None of the others are as skilled as Harrison, but someone like Coleman is likely better than any receiver from last year’s pool. He will make everyone in the WR unit better. He will command the double teams. He will be a huge scoring factor, particularly in the red zone. Some prefer Odunze. There is little to choose between these two. Both would dramatically upgrade the receiving options. The Cards could trade down a few slots and with these 2 virtually equal options, they get even more weapons. If they have the third pick, they could likely get an early 2 & 3 for dropping down a little in round one. Nabers, BTW, is rising quickly and a few have him as the second ranked receiver.
Pick 2 OT
The drop off to the next group of OTs is mostly about dominance. These guys are very effective, but they don’t change defensive strategy. Who’s available around pick 18? Mims from GA comes to mind. He’s been held back by an ankle injury, but when on the field he shows all the characteristics of an effective tackle. Guyton from OK is likely the best athlete in this second tier, despite his size. He hasn’t fully blossomed yet so he has a huge ceiling. He’d likely start as a RT or swing T. Fuaga from OR is likely the top run blocker. He moves bodies. As a pass blocker he’s adequate but must develop better footwork. He’s athletic enough to make that happen, but may be destined for RT.
Scenario #3
Pick 1 CB
Trade down to get here and receive a mid #1 this year and next year. This year that would mean a CB. McKinstry, AL is the hot name. He’s not my choice. He’s solid in pass coverage but not a ballhawk. He’s also mediocre in run support. If you’re looking for a pure CB, King or Wiggins likely are next on the boards. I like DeJean, but he’s a slot corner. I see him as the best ballhawk in the draft and he can guard TEs. You could move down and get him for sure.
Pick 2 DE
Verse FSU has not had the dominant year many expected. He will play on Sunday and likely be more effective than his numbers indicate. Teams know him and he lacks defensive assistance from teammates that would draw attention away from him. If you want pure power Tuimoloau, OSU gives you pressure every down. He’s a force against the run, but hasn’t fully developed as a pass rusher. He’s needs technique, but he is capable of learning it.
The third scenario is the least attractive to me though it would depend on picks acquired. Of course a hybrid, like taking a WR first, a DT second and getting an OT either by trading into the late first or taking one in the early second.
If Harrison is gone, getting that extra 2 is very valuable in this draft. The first 10 second round picks should be solid starters. There will likely be dropping OTs & WR who might have gone round one in other years. There might also be a desirable LB or DT who lands about there. The Cards will have picks to maneuver.
Finally there are a number of DTs who could be had with the round 3 picks. They will likely be rotation players, not dominant forces. Still they would be a step up from the current roster and add badly needed depth. There also will likely be a few CBs & OTs who fall to round 3. The latter might make good guard candidates.
Like last year this is shaping up to be a solid draft especially for the first 3 rounds. I will again advance my theory that the primary reason for this recent surge of depth is the portal. Quality players transfer and get exposure instead of being blocked by more senior players at their previous school. Also the movement from smaller schools or weaker conferences reveals high level, talented players. There are simply more visible, experienced prospects.
Scenario #1.
Pick 1 OT
Quite a few pundits believe the Cards should focus on the trenches, going OT first. There are several to choose amongst. I like Fashanu, others prefer Alt. Both are solid choices with little to separate them. Fashanu is probably the better pass protector, while Alt is better balanced but evenly rated in run/pass. There are also several other tackles with first round grades. None are quite as dominating as these two.
Pick 2 DT
Even if the Cards follow my advise and secure a DT in FA, they’d be wise to grab Newton if he’s still on the board. Sadly he seems to be rising. The scarcity at this position has evaluators putting him as high as top 7, though some don’t have him in round 1. He is a touch undersized, but he plays bigger. He’s effective at stopping the run and and penetrates well to disrupt the passing game. He may have the best motor in college. He’d be a terrific asset in team motivation. If he keeps consistently climbing draft boards, the Cards will need to trade up to get him.
Scenario#2
Pick 1 WR
This is one of the best WR classes in this century. It has everything. Some see that as a reason to wait. I see it as the best WRs in this class are truly elite. They are game changers. If Harrison is there they take him. None of the others are as skilled as Harrison, but someone like Coleman is likely better than any receiver from last year’s pool. He will make everyone in the WR unit better. He will command the double teams. He will be a huge scoring factor, particularly in the red zone. Some prefer Odunze. There is little to choose between these two. Both would dramatically upgrade the receiving options. The Cards could trade down a few slots and with these 2 virtually equal options, they get even more weapons. If they have the third pick, they could likely get an early 2 & 3 for dropping down a little in round one. Nabers, BTW, is rising quickly and a few have him as the second ranked receiver.
Pick 2 OT
The drop off to the next group of OTs is mostly about dominance. These guys are very effective, but they don’t change defensive strategy. Who’s available around pick 18? Mims from GA comes to mind. He’s been held back by an ankle injury, but when on the field he shows all the characteristics of an effective tackle. Guyton from OK is likely the best athlete in this second tier, despite his size. He hasn’t fully blossomed yet so he has a huge ceiling. He’d likely start as a RT or swing T. Fuaga from OR is likely the top run blocker. He moves bodies. As a pass blocker he’s adequate but must develop better footwork. He’s athletic enough to make that happen, but may be destined for RT.
Scenario #3
Pick 1 CB
Trade down to get here and receive a mid #1 this year and next year. This year that would mean a CB. McKinstry, AL is the hot name. He’s not my choice. He’s solid in pass coverage but not a ballhawk. He’s also mediocre in run support. If you’re looking for a pure CB, King or Wiggins likely are next on the boards. I like DeJean, but he’s a slot corner. I see him as the best ballhawk in the draft and he can guard TEs. You could move down and get him for sure.
Pick 2 DE
Verse FSU has not had the dominant year many expected. He will play on Sunday and likely be more effective than his numbers indicate. Teams know him and he lacks defensive assistance from teammates that would draw attention away from him. If you want pure power Tuimoloau, OSU gives you pressure every down. He’s a force against the run, but hasn’t fully developed as a pass rusher. He’s needs technique, but he is capable of learning it.
The third scenario is the least attractive to me though it would depend on picks acquired. Of course a hybrid, like taking a WR first, a DT second and getting an OT either by trading into the late first or taking one in the early second.
If Harrison is gone, getting that extra 2 is very valuable in this draft. The first 10 second round picks should be solid starters. There will likely be dropping OTs & WR who might have gone round one in other years. There might also be a desirable LB or DT who lands about there. The Cards will have picks to maneuver.
Finally there are a number of DTs who could be had with the round 3 picks. They will likely be rotation players, not dominant forces. Still they would be a step up from the current roster and add badly needed depth. There also will likely be a few CBs & OTs who fall to round 3. The latter might make good guard candidates.
Like last year this is shaping up to be a solid draft especially for the first 3 rounds. I will again advance my theory that the primary reason for this recent surge of depth is the portal. Quality players transfer and get exposure instead of being blocked by more senior players at their previous school. Also the movement from smaller schools or weaker conferences reveals high level, talented players. There are simply more visible, experienced prospects.
