Plan to panic

[AzStevenCal]

I think this team is going to take awhile to figure out rotations and unfortunately, our schedule isn't going to cooperate. I figure we'll start the season with something like a 5 - 13 record. Will this team be mentally strong enough to survive such a start or will panic set in? Personally, even with Nash's leadership I think a little bit of panic would be natural in that situation.

My real concern though will be the front office. Between the bad economy, the absence of a crowd favorite (Amare) and a struggling Suns team, I suspect disappointing attendance numbers could move this organization to make some drastic moves. Mid-season trades don't bother me but I had hoped we'd be making them with an eye to improving the team. If we approach the trade deadline looking like a motivated seller things aren't likely to improve.

I'm not trying to borrow trouble here but I do see a lot of cause for concern. When we first put this roster together I had hopes of us using a few of our interchangeable assets to acquire a defensive minded big guy but I'm starting to have doubts. Anyone care to talk me off the cliff?

Steve

 

[overseascardfan]

I think this team is going to take awhile to figure out rotations and unfortunately, our schedule isn't going to cooperate. I figure we'll start the season with something like a 5 - 13 record. Will this team be mentally strong enough to survive such a start or will panic set in? Personally, even with Nash's leadership I think a little bit of panic would be natural in that situation.

My real concern though will be the front office. Between the bad economy, the absence of a crowd favorite (Amare) and a struggling Suns team, I suspect disappointing attendance numbers could move this organization to make some drastic moves. Mid-season trades don't bother me but I had hoped we'd be making them with an eye to improving the team. If we approach the trade deadline looking like a motivated seller things aren't likely to improve.

I'm not trying to borrow trouble here but I do see a lot of cause for concern. When we first put this roster together I had hopes of us using a few of our interchangeable assets to acquire a defensive minded big guy but I'm starting to have doubts. Anyone care to talk me off the cliff?

Steve

To be honest I hoping for the best which IMO is a 44-45 win season and a #8 seed. But if we suck no worries, we have our own 1st rounder this year so we can get an impact big for next year.

 

[AzStevenCal]

To be honest I hoping for the best which IMO is a 44-45 win season and a #8 seed. But if we suck no worries, we have our own 1st rounder this year so we can get an impact big for next year.

Mid 40's is about where I initially expected also but the more I think about this roster the more worried I become. Especially if you look over the early part of our schedule. If this team and management don't show some patience and resiliency I could see a 30 to 35 win season easily.

Steve

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Eh, I can certainly understand the concern, but we've been pretty successful without Amare before. Further, we have much better depth than the Boris team as well, and Nash doesn't appear to be slowing down. I think we'll do better than an 8 seed, especially because nobody beyond the Lakers and OK City look that great. We'll get off to a slow start with all the new pieces, but by Christmas, we should be hitting on all cylinders.

 

[Chaplin]

Mid 40's is about where I initially expected also but the more I think about this roster the more worried I become. Especially if you look over the early part of our schedule. If this team and management don't show some patience and resiliency I could see a 30 to 35 win season easily.

Steve

Good thing we've had more than 3 preseason games under our belts for an accurate assessment.

Oh. Wait.

 

[boisesuns]

Good thing we've had more than 3 preseason games under our belts for an accurate assessment.

Oh. Wait.

I think the initial post was trying to project where things might be at. I'm not sure how the team will look. I like the depth, but I worry about the same things of defense and a go to scorer when we really need points.

I have a feeling this years suns team will be the same as past suns teams: Fun to watch, high scoring, competitive in most games, But lacking in defense in the paint and getting crucial stops, poor rebounding, and losing to teams we should beat.

I don't think it will be as bad as 30-35 wins, but I don't see us getting 55+ either.

 

[elindholm]

Eh, I can certainly understand the concern, but we've been pretty successful without Amare before.

That's my feeling too. The Suns will find themselves resorting to small ball, as usual, but they'll find a way to make it work in the regular season. 45 wins sounds about right, potentially as high as 50 if the younger guys develop and at least two of Turkoglu/Warrick/Childress exceed expectations.

 

[elindholm]

My real concern though will be the front office. Between the bad economy, the absence of a crowd favorite (Amare) and a struggling Suns team, I suspect disappointing attendance numbers could move this organization to make some drastic moves.

Hypothetically, what "drastic moves" could the team make? They could make stupid moves, like trading Richardson for a slate of ugly long-term deals, but I don't see this front office responding to crisis by adding salary.

The big contracts on the roster are Nash, Turkoglu, and Frye. Turkoglu and Frye will be pretty much untradeable if they are struggling, so that leaves only Nash. Theoretically, I guess, the Suns could package Nash with a bad contract for expirings, but that wouldn't save them any money this season, so it's not clear what the point would be.

I can see the organization getting desperate, but, ironically enough, they just don't have the resources to do something genuinely destructive.

 

[Bert]

I'm not going to panic. I really have no idea what to expect from our Suns this year. I dont think we're "rebuilding" per say but it's definitely going to be a transition from Amare being the center of our offensive universe. We still have that Canadian dude and he's still pretty good last time I checked.

I dont mind some bumps in the road I'm actually excited to see what we become this season. It's going to be a process but who knows, we might be better?

Anyways I wont expect us to be at the level we were at the end of last season anytime soon, but I'll hang in there. I think it's going to be a fun season with a lot of close games.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I can see the organization getting desperate, but, ironically enough, they just don't have the resources to do something genuinely destructive.

Ha, you give them too little credit...

 

[Chaplin]

Hypothetically, what "drastic moves" could the team make? They could make stupid moves, like trading Richardson for a slate of ugly long-term deals, but I don't see this front office responding to crisis by adding salary.

The big contracts on the roster are Nash, Turkoglu, and Frye. Turkoglu and Frye will be pretty much untradeable if they are struggling, so that leaves only Nash. Theoretically, I guess, the Suns could package Nash with a bad contract for expirings, but that wouldn't save them any money this season, so it's not clear what the point would be.

I can see the organization getting desperate, but, ironically enough, they just don't have the resources to do something genuinely destructive.

Frye's contract may be large vs. his talent level, but really, he is making the same amount LB was, which is only a little bit more than what Warrick signed for.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Good thing we've had more than 3 preseason games under our belts for an accurate assessment.

Oh. Wait.

Honestly, the preseason games have nothing to do with my rising feeling of doom and gloom. Look at the schedule we start with and try to project how we'll do through the first 18 games and see if you come up with much different numbers.

Sure, there's still plenty of time to turn a season around when you have 64 games remaining but our margin for error is very slim. We wouldn't be the first team to pack it in with that kind of start especially if the front office gives off signals that they're about to hold a fire-sale.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

Eh, I can certainly understand the concern, but we've been pretty successful without Amare before. Further, we have much better depth than the Boris team as well, and Nash doesn't appear to be slowing down. I think we'll do better than an 8 seed, especially because nobody beyond the Lakers and OK City look that great. We'll get off to a slow start with all the new pieces, but by Christmas, we should be hitting on all cylinders.

You're right, we've managed quite well in the past without Amare. However, I'm just as concerned about how the fans will react to his absence as I am how the team will play without him. If I'm right about our very slow start, it might not take much to turn off this fan base and then, what will ownership do?

Even if someone does talk me off the ledge I'd be stunned if we were better than a 7 or 8 seed. And I wasn't one of the guys expecting doom and gloom going into last season.

Steve

 

[Chaplin]

This fear of having a slow start happens every season--it happened just as recently as last season and we came out of the gates pretty well, and that was without Amare playing like he played in the 2nd half of the season and with Robin out because of injury.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Hypothetically, what "drastic moves" could the team make? They could make stupid moves, like trading Richardson for a slate of ugly long-term deals, but I don't see this front office responding to crisis by adding salary.

The big contracts on the roster are Nash, Turkoglu, and Frye. Turkoglu and Frye will be pretty much untradeable if they are struggling, so that leaves only Nash. Theoretically, I guess, the Suns could package Nash with a bad contract for expirings, but that wouldn't save them any money this season, so it's not clear what the point would be.

I can see the organization getting desperate, but, ironically enough, they just don't have the resources to do something genuinely destructive.

No they probably won't add salary but that's not my concern. I'm more worried that we'll pull off a Gugliotta-like deal but with Jason in his place. Or how about another Kurt Thomas kind of deal to take care of Hedo's contract. If we start off really slow and the fans start staying home I just don't know what a Sarver led ownership team might do.

Steve

 

[elindholm]

Frye's contract may be large vs. his talent level, but really, he is making the same amount LB was

Actually Frye's annual salaries are less than Barbosa's. The problem with Frye's contract, from a tradeability standpoint, is its length. If it ends up looking like Frye is nothing more than a gimmick "center" who chucks a three every time he touches it, there's no way anyone else is going to take him on through 2015.

 

[devilalum]

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[AzStevenCal]

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Oh yeah, that's me. But, before you laugh me off the stage would somebody please take a look at our first 18 games and tell me what you think we'll do.

I think we start off with a tough schedule. I think our defense and our rebounding are going to be an even bigger problem than usual. I think Nash is at risk to start showing his age and Grant is right there with him. I think we have a lot of talent but a VERY poorly constructed roster. I think fans will miss Amare, hate our start and find other things to spend their limited funds on. And I'm concerned our experiment in the front office is going to add up all the negatives and run for cover.

I don't believe I'm overreacting and come January a lot more of you may well be echoing my concerns. I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

Steve

 

[elindholm]

I think we start off with a tough schedule. I think our defense and our rebounding are going to be an even bigger problem than usual. I think Nash is at risk to start showing his age and Grant is right there with him. I think we have a lot of talent but a VERY poorly constructed roster. I think fans will miss Amare, hate our start and find other things to spend their limited funds on. And I think our experiment in the front office is going to add up all the negatives and run for cover.

You still haven't provided a specific example of the kind of panic move the organization might make. What cards do they have to play, even if they do panic?

 

[AzStevenCal]

You still haven't provided a specific example of the kind of panic move the organization might make. What cards do they have to play, even if they do panic?

I don't really know how to respond to this. You wouldn't consider it a panic move (in the scenario I described - bad start, failing attendance) if they tossed in future draft picks in an effort to move contracts?

Steve

 

[elindholm]

You wouldn't consider it a panic move (in the scenario I described - bad start, failing attendance) if they tossed in future draft picks in an effort to move contracts?

I would, but I don't see another team biting. Who wants a Suns pick? Unless it's far in the future, they're still a playoff bubble team, meaning that the pick is in the middle of the first round.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I would, but I don't see another team biting. Who wants a Suns pick? Unless it's far in the future, they're still a playoff bubble team, meaning that the pick is in the middle of the first round.

That's an assumption I doubt that all teams will share. I could certainly see another team analyzing our roster and envisioning a bottom feeder team the day Nash either retires or loses a step. Personally, I think that occurs within the next two years. Actually, I'll be surprised if he doesn't show a noticeable drop this season.

If we start failing at the ticket counter, I could easily see us moving JR and/or Hedo and maybe even sacrificing Dragic or Lopez in order to make it happen. Sarver is willing to spend to put a decent team out there but I doubt he's willing to hemorrhage cash simply to field a bad team.

Steve

 

[Chaplin]

I don't really know how to respond to this. You wouldn't consider it a panic move (in the scenario I described - bad start, failing attendance) if they tossed in future draft picks in an effort to move contracts?

Steve

They don't really have any bad contracts to move. Sure, they have JRich, but he's NOT a contract that we would panic to get rid of. He's a good player with a large contract, yes, but he's nowhere near what Kurt Thomas was--which I think we all agree was the biggest panic move the organization ever made.

Which of our players would we have to include multiple first rounders with to offload? None of our guys, including Hedo, would drive us to that, barring an injury of immense proportions.

 

[Errntknght]

IMO, thats a favorable schedule for this team - 11 of the first 18 games on the road, which will help it jell. They finished on a relatively high note last year so they probably have too high of an opinion of themselves - which means they are going to have learn how hard they have to play to succeed this year. A tough schedule helps that learning process.

Right now every one but JR is shooting abysmally from 3 - it will be long miserable season if it stays that way but now its a good thing because it pushes them to develop other aspects of their offense and they have to work harder on D. What an awful thing it would be if they blythely romped through the pre-season games because their 3's were falling left and right.

You'd think by now I'd have more confidence in Gentry but I keep having this nightmare that he gets locked into having Warrick and Frye as his second unit frontcourt and instead of changing it when they do poorly, he reverts to old behavior and plays the first unit more and more. I guess it could be worse - if the first unit was even poorer than the second unit because he just can't find a way to get much out of Turkoglu. Like many others I had vague ideas of Hedo's playmaking skills somehow freeing up Nash as a spot up shooter but reality is starting to set in. Maybe Chap can explain how it sees that coming to pass since he's still confident Hedo is going to be a grand success here. (What a change for him, replying to one of my posts with some basketball talk instead calling me naive, stupid and hasty.)

 

[Griffin]

To add to what's been said, the Suns aren't over the LT this time around so I don't foresee a move like the KT trade anytime soon. It is possible the Suns will make a move if they start slow and it's evident that they are lacking in the front court, but I wouldn't call that a desperation move.