Playoff Picture 2021

[TheCardinal]

Holy crap that’s impressive!

I’d love to take credit for the Cardinals’ road success this season, but would have to confess that my record until recently has been absolutely abysmal. Currently, I’m at 31-50 (only one home game, one neutral site, the rest away), but this includes wins in my last seven, and 9 of my last 10. Take those away and it’s truly shockingly awful.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

I’d love to take credit for the Cardinals’ road success this season, but would have to confess that my record until recently has been absolutely abysmal. Currently, I’m at 31-50 (only one home game, one neutral site, the rest away), but this includes wins in my last seven, and 9 of my last 10. Take those away and it’s truly shockingly awful.

Appreciate you, in a big way, representing TheCardinal. That's super cool man, and I hope to be right there with you someday.

 

[PDXChris]

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[TheCardinal]

A few more specifics to include ties. The official NFL scenarios will probably come out after the Monday night game. I believe the Cardinals will clinch a playoff berth with any of the following in week 14:

ARI win/tie

OR

MIN loss/tie + SF loss

OR

MIN loss/tie + CRL loss/tie + NO loss/tie

OR

SNF loss + NO loss/tie + ATL/CRL tie

 

[TheCardinal]

Within the division:

SEA: cannot catch us

SF: cannot beat us in any tie-breaker. To pass us, SF would need a better overall record. Our magic number to eliminate SF from the division race is 1 (one ARI win OR one SF loss OR two ties among the teams).

LAR: we hold a massive edge in tie-breakers. Our magic number to eliminate LAR from the division race is 3 (any combination of ARI wins and LAR losses adding up to 3, ties are half-wins/half-losses -- an ARI win over LAR shaves off 2 from the magic number), with ONE exception. The only way I see where LAR can claim tie-breakers is with the following:

ARI loss vs LAR
ARI loss vs SEA
ARI win vs DAL (a win by us over DAL helps LAR in tie-breakers)
LAR win vs SEA
LAR win vs SF
LAR loss vs BAL (a loss by them to BAL helps LAR in tie-breakers)

This will even up H2H, division, and common-games records, and give LAR the edge on conference record. With these assumptions, we would be 11-4 (with unknown outcomes against DET and IND) and they would be 11-5 (with unknown outcome against MIN). Our magic number in this specific scenario would then be 4, though with our assumed win over DAL and their loss to BAL, the magic number would have been shaved down to 2 (from the three remaining games: ARI at DET, IND at ARI, LAR at MIN); essentially, this means we would need to finish with the better overall record, either at 12-5 or 13-4, but just in this specific scenario. Anything else, and we clinch the tie-breaker advantage.

 

[TheCardinal]

Across divisions:

We can also predict tie-breakers for most of the remaining lower tier teams in the conference, should we end up with the same record.

New Orleans (5-7): Saints would beat us in all tie-breakers (conference record).

Atlanta (5-7): Falcons would beat us in all tie-breakers (common games).

Carolina (5-7): Panthers would beat us in all tie-breakers (H2H if 2-way tie, conference record if 3-way tie).

Minnesota (5-7): Cardinals would win in a 2-way tie (H2H). In a 3-way tie involving any team in the NFC South, the Vikings would win the tie-breaker. A 3-way tie involving DAL would go DAL-ARI-MIN. A 3-way tie involving WSH would go WSH-ARI-MIN. A 3-way tie involving PHI would come down to strength of victory between PHI/MIN; the order would either be PHI-ARI-MIN or MIN-PHI-ARI.

PHI (5-7): Eagles would beat us in all tie-breakers (conference record).

WSH (6-6): Football Team would beat us in all tie-breakers (conference record).

 

[TheCardinal]

Of course, what we all want to know is how we would fare against the top teams in the NFC. Most of these tie-breakers have not yet been determined. For tied teams, the team with the better AFC record has the *WORSE* NFC record. Easiest to compare AFC records since there are only five such games, and most have already been banked.

ARI (4-0 AFC): the better AFC record is bad in NFC tie-breakers
TB (3-0 AFC)
GB (2-1 AFC)
DAL (2-3 AFC)

The ARI/TB tie-breaker would depend on remaining wins.

The ARI/GB tie-breaker favors GB. I believe the only way we can jump GB would be in a 3-way tie with TB where we lose to IND, GB beats BAL and CLE, and TB loses to exactly one of BUF/NYJ. The tie-breaker would go to strength-of-victory.

The ARI/DAL tie-breaker favors the H2H winner in Week 17. If we lose that game, we cannot jump DAL in a 3-way tie-breaker. If we win that game, DAL can still jump us in a 3-way tie with GB (would depend on who else GB beats) but DAL could not jump us in a 3-way tie with TB (H2H swept).

A 4-way tie between division-winning DAL/GB/TB/ARI would go to either DAL or GB depending on remaining wins.

 

[PDXChris]

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[TheCardinal]

With the Vikings’ win over Pittsburgh, it’s going to be tough for us to clinch the playoffs on Sunday. Would need SF to lose + NO to lose (or tie) + ATL/CRL to tie.

Of course, we can still clinch it ourselves with a win (or tie) Monday night, probably as it should be.

 

[TheCardinal]

No tie in Falcons/Panthers game. Only scenario for Arizona to clinch this week is with a win or tie Monday night.

 

[TRW]

They win, they're in. They need to win this home game and I think they will.

 

[JosiahLee]

Yesterday I envisioned a NFC Championship game at Glendale vs. Tampa Bay in a surreal victory for the Cardinals. Tom Brady was being sacked by CJ and actually sustains an injury. Then the Cards go on to win the SB. Titans beat Pats to go to SB with Derrick Henry. Even crazier, Titans come up 1 yard short again to lose the big game.

Ok check this out, you might be a prophet lol

 

[TheCardinal]

Alright, not much in the way of help this week. Updated scenarios below.
Teams that cannot catch us: DET, CHI, NYG, SEA, CRL. Teams hanging on by a thread (as it relates to catching us): NO, ATL, PHI, MIN, WSH, SF.

If the Cardinals win against the Rams, we wipe away all the above, clinch a playoff berth, and can be no worse than the 5-seed. Magic number for the division would be 1 against the Rams.

If the Cardinals tie against the Rams, we wipe away all the above except SF, clinch a playoff berth, and can be no worse than the 6-seed. Magic number for the division would 2 against the Rams and 0.5 against the 49ers.

If the Cardinals lose against the Rams, no playoff clinching. Then going into Week 15 at Detroit, our clinching scenarios, as I see it, would look like:

ARI win/tie
-OR-
MIN loss/tie + SF loss
-OR-
MIN loss/tie + ATL loss/tie + NO loss/tie
-OR-
MIN loss/tie + PHI/WSH tie
-OR-
SF loss + PHI/WSH tie
-OR-
ATL loss/tie + NO loss/tie + PHI/WSH tie
-OR-
ATL loss/tie + NO loss/tie + PHI loss + GB win/tie

Atlanta plays San Francisco next week, thus limiting some of the possible combinations. Details and explanations to come later only if this remains relevant after Monday night (i.e., we lose to the Rams).

 

[Cheesebeef]

Gotta put our big boy pants on tomorrow and take that playoff spot for ourselves!

 

[Shane]

Gotta put our big boy pants on tomorrow and take that playoff spot for ourselves!

1000%

 

[SoonerLou]

Gotta put our big boy pants on tomorrow and take that playoff spot for ourselves!

Yep. Bucs (1st half) and Packers (2nd half) showed how dominant they can be. Time for the Cardinals to do the same.

 

[SoonerLou]

Just realized the Packers play Baltimore and Lamar's injured.

 

[Zalixar]

Just realized the Packers play Baltimore and Lamar's injured.

Packers aren't losing another game.

 

[SoonerLou]

Packers aren't losing another game.

Cleveland has the defense and running game to give them problems.
Cousins plays well against the Packers as well.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Cleveland has the defense and running game to give them problems.
Cousins plays well against the Packers as well.

Neither Cleveland nor Minny is going into the GB and winning a game there. You know it and I know it.

 

[sdscard4]

Neither Cleveland nor Minny is going into the GB and winning a game there. You know it and I know it.

Ummm I'd take Cleveland or Minnesota any day to go into Green Bay and steal a game. Is GB the big bad wolf? Any given sunday

 

[Zalixar]

Cleveland has the defense and running game to give them problems.
Cousins plays well against the Packers as well.

Browns are extremely Jekyll/Hyde.

Vikings in GB? Ha.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Ummm I'd take Cleveland or Minnesota any day to go into Green Bay and steal a game. Is GB the big bad wolf? Any given sunday

You’d get taken. Baker Mayfield or Kirk Cousins going into GB and winning a huge game for their team ain’t happening.

 

[sdscard4]

You’d get taken. Baker Mayfield or Kirk Cousins going into GB and winning a huge game for their team ain’t happening.

Cousins is 4-3-1 Vs GB
110 rating
I think he can steal one

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Cards will have to go 15-2 if they want #1 seed.